General Betting
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I be grindin' away at pilin' up an insane fortune here. I be in it fer th' long term 'n ye gunna find me grindin' away on horses, knife throwin' 'n knife throwin'.
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Not knife-throwin'...tennis and soccer'. Anyway, I just wanted to gift some advice to people who seem to have trouble makin' doubloons on exchanges in th' long term.
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But only if someone wants me to be tellin' them.
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I often think that I could nail th' rules up to th' gates at Lin'field 'n no one would bother readin' them anyway.
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I'm interested, snapster. Any pearls for a landlubber?
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I too would be fascinated to learn how to make a fortune
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Still no nuggets :(
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Alright, me buckos. Here be th' first nugget fer ye all.
Rule 1) th' markets be not beatable in th' long term. 'tis means ye cannot overcome a (small) overround 'n commission charge. So, ye must TRADE all ye bets 'n not GAMBLE. |
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Will this be a rule a day, cap'n ?
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t be extra important. 'tis means that ye have to always green 'n red ye positions, even though ye have to take a loss. In fact, ye gunna often need to take more reds than greens. Better get used to it. i reckon it be one 'o th' hardest thin's fer people to do, 'n ends most tradin' careers extra smartly.
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If ye want to gamble, ye can win fer awhile, but ye gunna evenually be sailin' th' plank. th' odds be against ye. th' trick be to take small losses 'n pay them off wit' an evental bigger win. It takes the hour, ye can't force th' market to gift ye what ye want, but , like a beautiful woman, she gunna gift it to ye when she be ready.
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Think 'bout it carefully. I'll be givin ye all th' second rule in th' morrow.
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like a beautiful woman, she gunna gift it to ye when she be ready.
So true |
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Excellent. I'm looking forward to the next one.
Snapper is right imo. Very long runs of luck in gambling mean that if you keep taking money out to pay living expenses, you can't build up your bank to the humongous levels required to cope with the maximum plausible bad run. |
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Thanx, snapper. Rule 1 i know to be untrue but hey ho. Rule 2 about reddding up, i agree about for trading. Look forward to more bounty from Cap'n Snapster
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TheSnapper 19 Nov 07:28
Rule 1) th' markets be not beatable in th' long term. 'tis means ye cannot overcome a (small) overround 'n commission charge. So, ye must TRADE all ye bets 'n not GAMBLE. Why does everyone think that you need to trade these days? |
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He tells you why he thinks you have to trade. Maybe an apt question is why do people see things and not comprehend them.
Agree or not on the trading, he tells you why he thinks it's a must. |
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Fair point.
My point should probably have a thread on it's own but I don't see why trading sometimes seems like the only way forward. At the end of the day people who know more about the event (especially in racing) than you are deciding whether to accept your bet or not. Is the art of picking winners that payback more than the losers getting old fashioned? Anyway that's for another day/thread. Continue! |
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TheSnapper 19 Nov 07:28
Rule 1) th' markets be not beatable in th' long term. 'tis means ye cannot overcome a (small) overround 'n commission charge. So, ye must TRADE all ye bets 'n not GAMBLE ==================================================== If you are saying that there are no "value" bets in the markets with horse racing....that is bunkum! If you are saying YOU cannot beat the markets in long term with horse racing ....I believe YOU ]:) |
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I think he's saying his form study isn't up to scratch, which is fair enough. Rule 4) Know where your strengths lie.
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A suprisingly good first point from snapper.
For your average joe who has no inside info then he is 100% correct. He is also correct in that learning to take a loss quickly is the hardest part of trading. |
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I think he's saying that in the lon run you'll get burned. My point about the long runs of luck is valid. You can have an edge and bet profitably for years, then a long bad run comes purely due to random chance...the bank is gone and you are stacking shelves.
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This point applies more strongly to people who are trying to make a living as opposed to those who are merely "investing" and hence can ride out a bad spell much better.
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never ye trust a pirate ... aaarrrr
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'For your average joe who has no inside info then he is 100% correct'
i am an average joe. i have no inside info. he is 100% not correct. |
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you sound above average to me then :)
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average height, average weight ;)
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Avast, tiss a fine sunrise me buckos. hearty thanks fer th' comments. Before we continue to Rule 2)i be needin' to answer a few confusions ye have.
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Th' marketis not always right. So thar be "value" in some events.But, it be deadly accurate over th' long run, so tryin' to find that"value" day after day be extra difficult. I don't shout it be impossible, just not extra likely ye gunna succeed.
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Rule 2). Stake sizin' be crucial. ye must keep ye trades th' same size, more or less. th' reason be simple, ye small losses have to be covered by a few big wins. Everythin' must be relatively th' same scale.
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'tis be what be called "chasin'" - varyin' ye stake size. Again, demandin' that th' lady 'o th' market satify ye desire. If ye give a go' 'n force her, she be goin' to break ye heart me buckos.
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So, ye trade to a fixed stake size. When ye reach ye first target (double ye buried treasure, fer example), then ye increase ye stake. In 'tis way, ye increase ye stake 'n ye buried treasure steadily. th' lady 'o th' market gunna gift it to ye all slowly as ye deserve it , 'n never more.
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So, off ye be me buckos. jolly luck to ye all. Return fer Rule 3) to'morrow.
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Good work, Cap'n....increase stake gradually as bounty grows.
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aaarrrr, what kind of self-respecting pirate gets up at 07:24? :)
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he'd done a day's plunderin' by 7.24, ta be sure--aaah
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posts on here before going shelf stacking
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Another good one Cap'n. I'll be aboard again tomorrow, for the morning tide.
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Jolly day to ye all. this day I be goin' to gift ye Rule 3) before I run off to plunder th' market.
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Rule 3) murder ye losers.
If ye open a trade 'n it goes worng, th' quicker ye murder it, th' better. Why? th' difference in th' long run between a winnin' trader 'n a loser trader be only how fast ye murder ye losers, because th' winnin' trades gunna win th' same amounts if left alone. Like a bad woman...th' faster ye leave her, th' better. ye find a jolly one 'n keep her around as ye can. That's all fer this day. bin got to get th' boat out now lads..jolly luck to ye all, remember what bin told ye 'n ye gunna be Ok. Be back to'morrow fer Rule 4). |