Staking Sytem / Recovery Plans

martingale works, but only if you are reverse martingale, i.e laying odds on.

I'm only backing 1.3 - 1.4 shots at the moment, proved to myself over the last couple of years that i'm a terrible tipster !!
When i narrow my bets down to 2 options i nearly always seem to pick the wrong one.

Hi Quinna,

lay draw HT in the chelsea-arsenal game

NEVER make staking a priority over your selection method. Whatever staking plan you use, it is doomed to failure if your selection method is incapable of showing a level stake profit.

I use Kelly staking, which is extremely efficient if your strike rate is good and your selection method has been shown to provide long-term, level stake profits. Kelly staking though is very much a double-edged sword: if your selection method is not proven, you'll do your cobblers more quickly.

Good call Man'O War, wasn't in for your tip had to go out for the afternoon. Perfect example of my luck this afternoon, was betting on sending off market, 7 games in the italian games to choose from, guess which one i chose.....Udinese !

Weary Wizard thanks for your response, i'll have a look at the kelly system.

Morrigan can you elaborate please

a useful thing to do if you have numerous bets in one day is to make an accumulator with the oppisite results to what you have chosen.

If you stake it right then you protect your bank and only make slight dent in your profits.

Very basic method but does prevent a whitewash.

Have tried to be disciplined over the last couple of weeks so only having 1 or 2 bets a day at moment

Weary Wizard 07 Feb 14:51


NEVER make staking a priority over your selection method. Whatever staking plan you use, it is doomed to failure if your selection method is incapable of showing a level stake profit.

I use Kelly staking, which is extremely efficient if your strike rate is good and your selection method has been shown to provide long-term, level stake profits. Kelly staking though is very much a double-edged sword: if your selection method is not proven, you'll do your cobblers more quickly.



Even if your selection is sound, using a staking plan, any staking plan, can result in turning a levels profit into a loss, as you become dependent on the sequence of said results. Beware staking plans.

Retirement staking plan, all very good. Simple to use

stakingmachine.com - best thing youll ever buy

All staking plans put u at the mercy of the sequence of results.

no recovery system works, increasing stakes, decreasing stakes after a winner or loser is also
a no no

Recovery plan is built into the original system strategy , it's the only way.

kenilworth 07 Feb 17:47




Even if your selection is sound, using a staking plan, any staking plan, can result in turning a levels profit into a loss, as you become dependent on the sequence of said results. Beware staking plans.

I've encountered few problems with Kelly staking TBH. If the selection method is tried and trusted (exhaustively), then it can be very productive. Of course freaky sequences could cause problems, but then again even level stakers need a plan/budget to get themselves through the inevitable sticky patch! ;)

What Ken refuses to believe, at least two years down the line, is that the order of results is entirely unimportant in Kelly. I've linked him to the wiki entry that proves this on several occasions.

When b = 1, the Kelly bettor bets 2p - 1 times initial wealth, W, as shown above. If she wins, she has 2pW. If she loses, she has 2(1 - p)W. Suppose she makes N bets like this, and wins K of them. The order of the wins and losses doesn't matter, she will have:



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

no

Really you should distinguish between a staking plan (like martingdale as a simple example) and a criterion like kelly, which is not a staking plan in the same sense, but rather a bit of maths which calculates how much of your bank it is prudent to wager on a given bet.

The difference is that a staking plan is dependent on the sequence of results - ie "if you lose do X, if you win do Y" whereas the Kelly criterion has nothing to do with sequences and asesses the value of each bet independantly. Staking plans which are dependent on sequences will always end in tears, whereas considering your staking based on the expected value of each bet is thoroughly sensible.