General Betting
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Posted this before, but want constructive criticism
To ensure the industry SP is FAIR (GC please note) and to stop 'mavericks' that openly flout this, the following should be relatively simple to implement:
When an overround of more than 115% is returned from the course, the SPRC should intervene. With the help of, primarily this exchange they should reassess all runners to produce an 'industry' book that brings the race back to 115% - then return that back for the rest of the industry to settle to
Course punters will still suffer, but the rest of the gambling public will be protected from these sharks. Its absurd that in this day and age, overrounds are allowed to run upto 150% - the regulator could make an instant win here.
One things for sure - the industry bookmakers wont be wanting any change
To ensure the industry SP is FAIR (GC please note) and to stop 'mavericks' that openly flout this, the following should be relatively simple to implement:
When an overround of more than 115% is returned from the course, the SPRC should intervene. With the help of, primarily this exchange they should reassess all runners to produce an 'industry' book that brings the race back to 115% - then return that back for the rest of the industry to settle to
Course punters will still suffer, but the rest of the gambling public will be protected from these sharks. Its absurd that in this day and age, overrounds are allowed to run upto 150% - the regulator could make an instant win here.
One things for sure - the industry bookmakers wont be wanting any change
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Replies: 72
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My only criticism is this:
Who exactly do you think is going to step forward and do something about it? Who has an incentive to do so? You may as well attack the course bookmakers that play along with the practices that go on. How often do you see 4/6 when its evens on here, then 8/13 4/7 8/15 1/2 while on here its trading at 6/5+. Too often to surmise that the course bookies either: rely on the revenue they make here from ripping off punters in betting shops nationwide to make their game pay handsomely enough or b) Don't give a damn - because we all know they are completely aware of what's going on on betfair. They could easily refuse to shorten it up and push it out to a fair SP whilst making plenty on the race (and in fact they should do occasionally, I would think - a lot of volume and a massive arb for them) - but they don't. |
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So 115% on a 2 horse race and 115% on the Grand National?
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So if the SP is always to 115% , would you switch from betting on here to betting at SP ?
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1.5% a runner is a significant margin and a more fair "guide". The other 2 posters have a point
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The answer is simple . bet with the best ..Betfair ... and close your bookies accounts right now ...
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If you are serious about punting then SP should be of little consequence to you
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joshuag 11 Jan 11:46
If you are serious about punting then SP should be of little consequence to you Unless you are serious about each-way punting, that is, in which case its quite important. |
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Treble
The GC, and via their legislative option, the SPRC Maria OK - a scale between 110-118, dependent on race size/ condition - but why be so pedantic, when the real issue is to right a wrong! Can anybody see anything wrong with the suggestion? or on it being easily implemented? |
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Why only horse racing? it only makes a small percentage of the market bookmakers are operating in
In which case you would have to have a miminimum overround for every market in every sport And why not apply that to every single item available for purchase in a supermarket Personally I'm absolutely fine with a system whereby mug punters are treated and suffer as such, and greedy uncompetitive companies lose business from discerning customers |
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starfish
whats wrong with a 115% overround in every sport? Theres enough profit there for the bookies, even after their costs - and just because there are mug punters around, does not mean they should be fleeced by the sharks - The GC is there to protect them, supposedly |
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whats wrong with a 15% overround in every sport?
are you serious? you're starting to lose it now someone has already pointed out its not looking too great in a 2 horse race, and its 5-7% higher than football match betting Get a concept of over-rounds and markets before you start proposing some ad-hoc legislation |
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Ive already pointed out it could be less for the 2 horse race, but should average 15%
I truly do know the concept of overrounds, so stop deflecting the thread into pointless debate and concentrate on the suggested method to correct something that is obviously wrong |
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The difference with sports betting is that each book can have their 15% overround, but we as selective punters (if we can get on) are faced with an overall best price book that is nearing 100% in the majority of cases.
The same sort of competition just does not apply to horse racing SPs |
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Sorry birch - I don't see you answering my question about incentives for the GC. I'm approaching the question from a cynical/devil's advocate POV.
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Ok, we'll disregrad over-rounds, which I thought was central to your point.
Regarding markets, most seem to operate on the basis that if a customer doesn't like the price he will buy it elsewhere, or not at all. (unless the purchase decision is not motivated solely by value, or if the customer is lazy/ignorant) |
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OK Treble
The incentive is to stand by 1 of their 3 objectives (thats suppose to be the meaning for their existence)- to ensure fair play and to protect the vulnerable. |
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Ok - but why pick on this. Bookmaking is full of (arguably much worse) practices than the abuse of the SP system. Some might even call the abuse of the SP system by the books good business - vs some other practices that go on in shops and elsewhere. So why should the GC start here? In fact, from any dealings I've had with the GC, this subject is far too complex and well outside of their knowledge base for a starting point on "cleaning up gambling" or horseracing in general.
I should say I'm 100% behind someone trying to do something about it - just 100% pessimistic about anyone (especially the GC) doing something about it. As I mentioned course bookies could do something about it - but they don't. |
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Treble
Because it is totally wrong and could be corrected with little effort or even without legislation - As far as I see it, the GC have the power to instigate the necessary changes now Other than yourself and a couple of others, I seem to have attracted bookie sympathisers |
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birch,
How will you decide on which horse the 'correction' is made ? Only the winner ? |
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I seem to have attracted bookie sympathisers
Or bookie couldntcarelessabouters, if that's a word. Guilty as charged |
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Cargo
Where there is blatant disparity - eg Tiddliwinks the other day - then the SPRC can look at exactly where the major differences are (between the books and here) and for which horses - it may be only 1 or 2 in races such as this. They can then quickly readdress a situation where a 130+ overround is 'corrected' by (particularly) increasing the odds of the shorter priced horses* to eventually return an overround of near 115% * on a pro-rata basis The exact parameters can be determined later - its the concept that needs to be grasped |
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It doesn't happen often, but if Dvinsky had won that race would you want it recalculated to the Betfair SP of 11'2 as opposed to the Industry SP of 6'1?
What would you do with a Comply or Die situation in a Grand National? |
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Perhaps Padraig Power could step forward and sponsor someone to look at how the SP system could be fairer.
They've done it once already. |
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I'm sure everyone grasps what you're aiming for but in practise it's not as simple as you think
Then there are those like me who dont care about lazy ignorant foul-mouthed layabout customers of betting shops But can I remind you that for many decades we have had a Tote operating which also throws up many many discrepancies, not always at high prices as i remember a 2'1 winner returned at 4'1 on the Tote. Would you also have to make your SP's correlate to the Tote?? Betfair and the SP market are independent entities and will remain so unless they are properly and whole-heartedly merged |
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Birch, now you've returned. Answer my question, if these rules that you are after, come into being will you bet at SP rather than on here ?
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zipper 11 Jan 10:45
The answer is simple . bet with the best ..Betfair ... and close your bookies accounts right now But if your a winner pay extra 20percent tax terrific. |
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Ian P
Its not what I bet to thats important here - its whats fair and reasonable to the wider public Many respondents here are taking a personal view of this - wheres your affiliation to your fellow punter....... or are you all that shallow? |
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Then there are those like me who dont care about lazy ignorant foul-mouthed layabout customers of betting shops
Sorry if I didn't make my lack of affiliation clear enough, and I don't see what is shallow is about it |
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starfish
Yes, you have a point re the tote (although this is far less likely than recent overround cases) But where do you get off with labeling all bet shop punters like this? |
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Sorry, I didn't mean to single them out in particular, there's a fair enough carry-over of that ilk on to Betfair, judging by the whinging and moaning thats goes on
Look at the number of threads on here complaining about this that and the other, finding someone to blame for every loser, claiming that all racing is fixed anyway. Do you think that tinkering with over-rounds in anyway going to satisfy them , or indeed make them any more the richer in the long-run? |
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starfish
they may not be any richer 'in the long run' - but they deserve a fair deal |
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checking out now, good night Birch, apologies i said you dont understand O/R :-)
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OK - would still like someone to put a case to show my suggestion is not achievable quickly and legitimately
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Well... rightly or wrongly the SP market is tied to the oncourse market .....what would be the incentive for anyone to bet on-course? .....no punter would never know if a couple of minutes later their winner is going to pay out at much bigger odds at SP
It's not a quick and easy**..it needs a total overhaul of the market Personally I wouldnt have minded a Tote monoply pre-betfair so that you're simply playing against your fellow punter on a level playing field with a guaranteed overround and no suspicion about prices If that cant be achieved then quite happy with the status quo which in theory would mean greedy bookmakers going to the wall The fact they havent since Betfair is because they have enough fodder willing to play AWP and cartoon racing..because THEY DONT CARE about ORs and value whatever you do with SPs |
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And incidentally .... carping about the returned SP is nothing a new .. I remember an investigation many years ago in response which showed that just as many winners were returned at a higher price from the last SIS show than were shortened.... it advised the best time to back the winner at a higher price was 2 minutes before the off...... I suspect little has changed
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Morning starfish
In my opening post, I stated that course punters would still suffer, (although I'm sure there would be an SP option on course) The point I'm trying to make is that for the rest of the betting shop public (which would probably equate to 99%) the SP would be returned to around 115% and settled fairly. AWP's, virtual racing etc has no relevance to this |
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Oh well .. good luck to you .. of course it would benefit betting shop customers .. just dont go getting too dewy-eyed over them cos honestly they're not worth it
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apart from the obvious(competition laws and such) the problem with sp's is with the system - not the bookies. i mean at kempton, 4pm start, there's none to bet to - literally. it's easy to say they must do this/that - but with no customers the problem is even getting books to the track
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Sportsadvisor
Apart from calling them sharks, my gripe is not really with the bookies - as you say the sp system is wrong - what I'm trying to point out is how easily it can be corrected |