General Betting
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05 Sep 09
12:39
Joined:
Date Joined:
10 Dec 07
Been thinking - as more and more cafe people apparently find it hard, as more and more people get faster/live on course.... that there is perhaps now enough slow sharks ( that have won for years and as such might not give up easy) being predated by faster sharks - that it could be worth botting the slow sharks of the fast sharks bets.
afterall. a bot can respond to a fast sharkes bet in 200 ms.
dont think the slow sharks will be that fast.
when everyone is fast this opportunity will be gone - but perhaps now there is a window to join in the feedin frenzy bought about by this unlevel playing field.
I could have done the same yeaqrs ago - to bot the fish from the sharkes - but morals precluded me from doing so... I know some did.
but now as I would predominantly get (slow) sharks in my net the moral conudrum is less concerning.
afterall. a bot can respond to a fast sharkes bet in 200 ms.
dont think the slow sharks will be that fast.
when everyone is fast this opportunity will be gone - but perhaps now there is a window to join in the feedin frenzy bought about by this unlevel playing field.
I could have done the same yeaqrs ago - to bot the fish from the sharkes - but morals precluded me from doing so... I know some did.
but now as I would predominantly get (slow) sharks in my net the moral conudrum is less concerning.
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Replies: 101
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the slow sharks are having a right old whinge as it is, this won't help :^0
"Boo Hoo, someone's got faster pics than me and I can no longer fleece the great unwashed" |
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200ms far too slow...... 13ms latency, 50ms between refreshes- should be there in half that.
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You should do it! Whatever "it" is.
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Also, terrible how unfair the playing field is. Authorities should be made aware, life sentences must rain,
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aye robot...
you also need to wait on betfair for some answers... unless you want to risk working off outdated cached data 100ms+ consumed there ( the answers) |
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agreed richard
some have been shown to be so hypocritical it is not funny Bankman/you/noodles and a few more I exclude form that criticism |
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I'd be interested to know how you get on with this. I've never really considerd using a bot to mimic humans as I just don't think it's thier strength. I'm also not convinced that the fastest picture/track players are all that good. I'm sure there are some good ones who do very well- but it's also clear that a lot of early moving money goes very much the wrong way.
I don't think morality comes into it at all frankly. Everyone here knows the risks and if you don't want to play you're not forced to- this is a battle of witts, "to the victor the spoils" I'd say. |
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Do it and write a book.
Give the winnings to charity if you want to do some good. |
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clyde
If I write a gambling book it will not be about botting IR... was thinking about writing a gambling book ealrier this year actually... but it is a serious undertaking |
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I managed 3 1/2 days of gambling blogging before I decided it wasn't for me :(
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Magician- can you tell me why you would want to write a gambling book? Also if you doint mind what you were thinking of covering in it
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wiped out
just mental curiosity really, it would mostly be data lead discussion of betting markets |
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Magician you are dangling a little fish in front of everyone claiming to have cracked the Da Vinci code. In the same way that punters look bemused at a Derren Brown illusion.
I'm curious how you think you can beat the fast pic players because I'd of thought it was impossible and was ** in the same way that I think Feck's idea of a blank interface with hidden bets is **. |
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I could make it a much wider topic, of exchanges
but I would need chapters to be wirtten by other epople to make that work. |
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I would be intersted to know your thoughts on the financial markets and the fairness of them compared to the gambling markets..
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wiped out.
1) financial markets are much less efficient than betting markets - and have considered recruting the best from here to make a mini hedge fund. why scrap it out with each other here for 100K, when the finacial world, 100k is a scrap. rounding error to many 2) hard to comment on fairness, as I work thier and have my employer to consider |
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clydebank
I do not know for certain I could bot IR. but i think I could. I have 5-6 winning years on here, botting horses races with close to zero knowledge of the 99.9% of horses/trainers/owners i bot - and that gives me some confidence I could bot the IR market as a caveat - i dont play IR |
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I would agree about the best on here doing very well on the financials...
Although i would say that the successful bot makers make far more than 100k, a modest figure imo... |
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wiped out
sure bots make many multiples of 100K, but many very good people here win that sort of figure annually, and could make considerably more using the same skills in financials |
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Magician,
I am intrigued to hear you say that financial markets are much less efficient than sports betting markets. I used to work in the financial markets, and now only work in Betfair markets, and I would say that it is the other way around. And if you think that, then why do you bother with Betfair at all? I enjoy the fact that I can find mistakes in this markets relatively easily (and generate regular income from them), but I find the relatively low sums involved frustrating (I frequently find that I am the principle market marker in the football markets I cover, and I'm not using that much capital). If I thought that there were comparable inefficiencies in the financial markets, I'd be back there like a shot. |
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Are their financial markets that are the equivalent of the very low liquidity ones on here, ie where you can cover hundreds of them putting up bets with a good margin and expect to get a reasonable percentage matched? (genuine question)
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Contrarian
I have been in gambling for decades - I have only joined the financial markets 2 years ago. I have a very strong opinion that Betfair while currently very important to me financiall and intelectually will become less important on both fronts as I widen my scope within financial markets betfair have no more than 30 horse markets a day - with no more than 300k real money matched on each race ( very rough averages - will not be orders of magnitudes wrong) - so about 9 mllion a day to play for. lets assume you can be 2% of real matched money - and win 2% of turnover, that is 3600 a day or 1.3 million year now while that is entirely obtainable, for a dedicated person to achieve think of the finance world alternative. pick your favourite mid cap? Shares per day * price / discount factor - for churn... i will not be surprised if you favourite mid cap - turns over 5-10-15 million a day then consider there are 1000-10000 of these globally, and 60-70% of then must be easily accessable in the main 10 markets of the world so the fish is at least 1000 times larger. not this is avoiding the larger caps where pricing spread an inefficiency is less. funny you moved from the banks to here - while I am moving the other way. |
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Richard LL
yes i belive there are there are many 'illiquid' stocks etc with 'wide' spreads and high 'volatility' |
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Magician,
I suppose I might have bought too readily into the classic economic orthodoxy that the global financial markets exhibit very little inefficiency. Of course, it's debatable what it even means to say that the markets are inefficient, and how one would actually test for it. What I do on Betfair - predominantly - involves statistical arbitrage across markets which are, assuming the correctness of my models, inconsistent. This is the sort of thing that I presume is nowadays very hard to do on the financial markets (because all the big banks have teams of maths PhDs eliminating these inefficiencies way before I could sniff them out). |
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Magician, how does one front run a hooverer ?
You can't intercept a hooverer's bets and put yours down first. You also can't beat a hooverer by definition - once he hoovers it's too late, there's nothing left for you. The people you will really be undercutting or targeting IMO are the skilled/unskilled race readers who are pricing-up and maintaining the margins with a constant stream of would-be value bets throughout a race. |
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And what when the hooverer is wrong? ie wicket given no ball.
Follow hoover in and you will be shafted by the quick layers |
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Magician
'the moral conundrum is less concerning' You may come to regret that remark |
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Magician
I have 5-6 winning years on here, botting horses races with close to zero knowledge of the 99.9% of horses/trainers/owners i bot -------------------------------------------------------------------------- We've met, you seem a good bloke and your forum contributions are second to none.Your ability to make money on here is proven. But, I am uneasy with your quote. Why it should bothers me. In theory, I have no objections to free markets, available to all. What you do is within the rules and your integrity is unquestioned by me. No doubt you will say that your conrtibution adds liquidity but I don't wish to get into that argument again.It's been done to death. If I win or lose money to someone with no opinions it should be no different to winning or losing with someone who does.Certainly, losing money to an insider who knows that a horse won't win, crosses a clear line in the sand.That is not acceptable to me, but it can't be irradicated. Losing money to someone with fast pictures falls into the same area. But your MO is,imo, at the heart of the BF problem generally and the PC issue specifically. What you take out is to my mind money lost to the pool. I feel the same about the 15% taken out by foreign exchanges converting $ to £ and vice versa. The charge is too high for the service provided. You are a clever man, no doubt. But can you see my dilemma here? Does the problem lay with me and not with you, I ask myself? Would the rest of us with opinions be better off without you? I don't expect you to agree with this, of course, but you should be aware of the issue. |
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"...real money matched on each race..."
What is "real money" please? |
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Magician,
Did you write any material for your book yet? I would be very interested, although I'm not involved with horse racing. |
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I don't understand the obsession with "having an opinion".
Sometimes I bet because I've got an opinion (in which case I leave my position open). Sometimes I bet without any opinion at all (in which case I'm generally using an automated program that's careful to avoid any exposure to the outcome of the event). As far as I'm aware, which I'm doing has no particular impact on how evil or immoral I am, or how likely I am to pump my winnings back into Betfair, or anything else of any interest to anyone other than myself. |
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JPL, when people talk about having an opinion I think they mean an opinion on what the odds should be, as opposed to an opinion on what is going to happen.
If you're betting without having your own opinion on what the odds should be, then what are you doing? Copying/being parasitic? |
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Sandown
I agree with what you say - I am (at least to date) a net extractor and as such I question my own value to Betfair. (remember my monster thread form years ago when I suggested betfair should ban winners in theory) I know/assume I am certainly less value to Betfair than an individual that provided |
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Birch2
Always respect you comments on here - and as you can see form my above post - the moral conundrum of my normal bots gives me regular foder for thought. |
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"real money"
assuming I said it - is what I consider net position taking money into the race.... ie not in a out trading but net open interest as they race jumps |
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Investor
I have some scrappy flow charts and chpater titles - and though flows of what i would write. then i some mapped out academic papers to publish on betttin data - but they are all very far from publication level |
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El Bandido - Yes, if my automated program (which in many cases has no idea what the true odds should be) sees that the spread between Back and Lay prices on a certain market is unreasonably wide it will place bets to narrow the spread.
You might call that "copying" or "being parasitic", but I would call it improving the prices available to ordinary punters. |
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If the bets that you're going (presumably one increment) in front of are cancelled do you then cancel your bets also in response? If so, then that is a host parasite situation, and you are the parasite.
You say you are improving the prices available to ordinary punters. But for ordinary punters, the situation would be improved if you were unable to see the opinion of others, and had to bet with your own opinion. This way, there would be more different opinions in the market, and ultimately it's differences of opinion that lead to bets being matched and 100% books. There would also be nothing to inhibit the placement of large bets. All in all, a much better situation for ordinary punters and for betfair. |
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El Bandido it doesnt matter how people win as long as they are not **ing. Magician is only using information available to everyone. What he does is highly skilled that's why he's making money on here its just a different skill to those that make money forming opinions from base information. Everyone uses the price information on here and odds comparison sites from straight punters to traders to bookmakers and arbers. It doesnt make one group more of a parasite than any of the others
Betfair does need winners because without winners they wouldn't be an exchange, they'd just be a bookmaker who would have to provide all the liquidity themselves and without winners they wouldn't know what prices to go. Winners are the lifeblood of the exchange. Apart from **ing morals don't come into betting. It's a free market where the winners win and the losers lose and in a way its one of the fairest and morally cleanest forms of obtaining money there is. It's the operator where the moral obligations begin and end. Everybody gets what they deserve on here and everyone is held responsible for their own actions. If The Magician feels any moral responsibility he can always give some money and time to help a charity. There are lots of worthy ones out there. |