General Betting
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I'm looking at doing this next epl 09/10 so I'll start looking whats the best statergies in other leagues for small stakes.
First one International Layed at 3.85 for 17.54
First one International Layed at 3.85 for 17.54
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GL newby , I find laying the shortest price the best way on footie
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are you laying the draw outright, to the games conclusion, or looking to back it after a goal is scored?
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Backing after a goal and getting out if no goal about even money is my origial plan,
but I think things will change before the start of the season. One thing I'm looking for is the price change on the underdog goal. I'm a bit worried about playing the over seas markets as I don't know enough info on teams and so I'm just going on stats. But the main aim is to gain a feel for this before next season. |
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how much u laying the draw for...i do the same thing laying £100 and get out at 2s if no goal.
your looking at a 10%return on investment. it dont always go to plan though as with everything on here. |
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Merit in what scotbet says, I doubt you have an edge taking comission into account with this strategy but it would certainly help if you're laying at or near the bottom of the market, why not stick draw lays up well in advance for all the games you think would have enough liquidity to play, but 5% below what you estimate the draw price is likely to be, if you get matched excellent, if not move on.
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Cheers pp I've got a £50 liability so I'm half yours.
I had a look on the footie forum and a few doubters of the goals due to international duty. Didn't expect an easy ride but a goal before the 2.0 comes up would be nice. There was a quick fall just before half time from 3.0 to 2.64 Any Ideas what time roughly it will reach 2.0 Thanks jimjohn. |
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Back the shortest priced draw in your opinion, but only those at a minimum price or better.
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it hits 2s around 55-60.
alot of the process is picking the right matches so the price moves up enough. |
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hits 2 around 67-70
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Cheers Richard. I don't think I'm quite up tp pricing the games yet, but I had quite a bit of success last season on the U/O market and thought if I could find the goals there I'd have a chance at this.
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its obviously best to wait until the price hits 2s as you have a 60%chance of a goal being scored in all matches.
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flatliner in my experience your not waiting till 70 mins for it 2 hit 2s
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60(ish) for draw to hit 2 70(ish) for 0-0 to hit 2
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Hmmm...watch competative matches in prem and spanish quicker down to 2 in close italian matches.
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Thanks everone for the reply's. I'm $hit slow at typing, trying to watch the game and monitoring prices at the same time.
Looks like there'll be a goal about 72 mins then when I've bailed out. |
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itallian matches are a no no for me
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Just a general rule of thumb I go by for most matches 70@2 80@1.5
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were are you finding 1.5 in the 80th min
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look at this brazil match prove me wrong, gonna lay it anyway if it keeps falling this fast...lol
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flatliner, I agree broadly with you, but it depends also if the flow of the game is even, for example ManU 0 Wigan 0 on 80 mins may be a bit bigger at 70 and 80 mins, whereas Everton 0 Liverpool 0 would be around your figures. There is sometimes good value in the last 10 mins or so. GL.
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ffs got evens!
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ok dont tend to play those leagues.
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Look at the brazil game kenneworth 2@60mins?????!!!!!!!
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I'll give it a few minutes then I'm out
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Man u v wigan, everyone would expect m u to win, 1.5 could be 87mins....
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the draw price in man u v wigan would be high from the start not a game i would play in.
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draw went 1.94 on 57 mins here and is 2 10 mins later
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Yes,it,s just left 2 lol
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10 mins for nowt ;)
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I'm out for a 16.23 loss.
Not a great start but can only improve from here, thanks again for all the comments. jimjohn |
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There brazil match 80@1.5
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yeah finished0-0 as well
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3 0ut of 7 brazil,s 0-0 unreal.
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Well as I'm not used to backing out of my bets that feels like a 33.77 win.
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Using a staking plan similar to The Merchant of Doom's I've started with £200.00 in total.
Bank1 £50 Bank2 £50 Reserve £100 +/- = 0.00 Will only play max of 2 games at a time until banks can be split into more. After todays game they stand at Bank1 £45.94 Bank2 £45.94 Reserve £91.89 +/- = -16.23 I don't expect to be playing too often at the moment, though I might get tempted by the U21's jimjohn. |
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Maybe not too clear there so here goes.
Bet 1 International 17.54 @ 3.85 £50 liability Backed the draw 33.76 @ 2.0 for a loss of £16.23 Bank1 £33.77 Bank2 £50 Reserve £100 This loss is then shared between the banks to leave as follows Bank1 £45.94 Bank2 £45.94 Reserve £91.89 +/- = -16.23 A bit long winded to start with but I'll shorten this when I get going. |
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Newby, this is an old method used many times, you will need to come up with an edge to make it successful.
Whilst you are starting up through the summer, have a look at the following 2 ideas 1. Laying the draw in when it hits 2.0 and look to trade out at 1.5 if no goal, would cost you 1/3 of your stake. 2. Don't lay the draw till it reaches 3.50, or at 15 mins if still 0-0, both give you an edge on the price when a goal is scored. If a goal is scored before , never mind there will be another game long if a minute. I haven't tried either set of scenario's and would be interested if anybody else has or has a view, just read your thread and those were a couple of thoughts. Good luck with your plan |
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Sorry about the typo's fingers haven't woken up properly yet.
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