General Betting
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Problems with gambling as we all know are
Getting on at the desired price
Being restricted by bookmakers once successful
Generally very stressful in terms of the ups and downs of results.
If you had a £20K bank and just played on here and looked for 1 tick profit per day i.e. £200 before commission then wouldnt this be preferable.
You would have to have very clear rules like
Identify the market that would take your trade and at what price i.e. footbal, tennis , racing.
Would you back or lay first or at the same time, im thinking back a very short priced one first (see below)?
Be ultra strict about never going in play
Identify what factors could influence the price between time of placing the trade and time of the event starting.
Im paper trading this strategy at the moment with Liverpool, Chelsea and Rafa Nadal in todays match and will add more when i look further over the weekend
It just seems to me that a lot of the short priced favourite players/teams generally shorten up near off time as people pile in (maybe chasing) on the so called good thing, so if you can back early and wait for the rush then you should secure your tick.
If you can make 5 ticks per week then this is a fairly risk free £1K per week or £52K per annum, better than 2% in a bank all year for yout £20K
Am i missing something or is this possible with a large bank and extreme discipline?
Getting on at the desired price
Being restricted by bookmakers once successful
Generally very stressful in terms of the ups and downs of results.
If you had a £20K bank and just played on here and looked for 1 tick profit per day i.e. £200 before commission then wouldnt this be preferable.
You would have to have very clear rules like
Identify the market that would take your trade and at what price i.e. footbal, tennis , racing.
Would you back or lay first or at the same time, im thinking back a very short priced one first (see below)?
Be ultra strict about never going in play
Identify what factors could influence the price between time of placing the trade and time of the event starting.
Im paper trading this strategy at the moment with Liverpool, Chelsea and Rafa Nadal in todays match and will add more when i look further over the weekend
It just seems to me that a lot of the short priced favourite players/teams generally shorten up near off time as people pile in (maybe chasing) on the so called good thing, so if you can back early and wait for the rush then you should secure your tick.
If you can make 5 ticks per week then this is a fairly risk free £1K per week or £52K per annum, better than 2% in a bank all year for yout £20K
Am i missing something or is this possible with a large bank and extreme discipline?
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Sounds great but....take Barca in the Copa del rey final, the great Barca was around 1.51 all day, you,d think they would come in before KO? Out to 1.56-1.57.
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worth a try but I don't think it is as simple as you make out. Perhaps it would be worth putting in a stop loss, so that you can close your position for a small loss (perhaps 3 or 4 ticks) if the price drifts rather than shortens (assuming you are backing).
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I may be wrong but the shorter odds seem to leads to less fluctuations, i.e. ive just had my 1.08 back of Nadal matched and as both sides of the bet were placed at the same time then im already in the queue for my 1.07 lay to be matched later.
Therefore Barcelona midweek at 1.5 not knowing for sure team news etc... then i probably would not have got involved. Now unless there is news about Nadal carrying an injury etc, i would not expect the odds to change too much and i would be confident of getting the other side matched before the scheduled start and that would have been my 1 £20K trade today in theory. Good point re stop losses Where this may work well is to take the early price on England football/Rugby or even Murray and wait for the patriotic punt later nearer the off!! |
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Boxman I find you idea intriguing.Would 20K be your whole bank placed at risk or would you operate a stop loss system.I think your idea might work in a sport like cricket where there is often an over reaction to a market event[eg the loss of a wicket or a six/four being scored]which subsequently quickly corrects itself.
How many ticks loss would you be prepared to take ? All the best with this venture. |
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Pre KO trading can sometimes give you a win and, as others have suggested if the swing goes in the other direction, a loss.
What's wrong with IP trading? The benefit in footy is that you precisely which way the odds will go. Take the Correct Score market for instance. In the last fifteen minutes of the game there are some large drops in the price and you could definitely grab your ticks there (say when a substitution is taking place, a corner has just resulted in a goal-kick, etc). |
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Initially the events will be pre kick off and i envisage placing the back part of the bet first maybe hours or even a day before the event starts with the lay side just before the start.
At the outset i will manually manage the stop loss side of affairs as currently i am recording in a spreadsheet at various times the back and lay prices and importantly the market volume which obviously has a major impact on price fluctuations For example this time yesterday Ii could have backed Liverpool for sundays game at 1.43 and now they are available to lay at 1.42 though completing both sides of the bet at £20K would be highly unlikely seeing market volume is only at £57K total I need to identify when the volume suddenly ramps up im presuming the morning of KO and accelerating from then onwards. |
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It would probaby be better to use swift moving markets as you would be in and out in seconds.
The 1-2-X football market is too slow. Tennis and horse racing would be better. Also I don't know why would you wouldn't leave it to go In Play, it would more than likely get matched. The U/O football markets are probably better than the 1-2-X in my opinion. |
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Once you are in play you are at risk , a tennis player gets injured after the first point, a goal is scored in 10secs, when playing with £20K my objective is capital protection i.e. extremely limited risk.
it may be slow and boring but waiting all day for someone to take my 1.07 on nadal is a lot less stressful and risky than gambling or inplay action!!! |
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I should imagine, doing this manually, you'd need to accept very quickly you'd made an error (if the price went against you) . People get access to all sorts of information and markets, that seemed stable before, can quickly move away from you and that's where most fail with that inability to accept that loss quickly.
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I know markets can swing the wrong way, but if you, for example, backed a decent player v an average player and the better player served first, the odds would drop after the first point by a few ticks insuring a profit is made.
Of course it could go against you, but tennis is so fast moving it's a great sport to trade. |
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Did you ever do this Boxman?
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Boxman eg Football team Back At 1.2 Lay At 1.19 For 20K
The Team Does Not Win Were Is The Profit ? Good Luck Though Box |