General Betting
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I price up matches using current season league form and anything that has a lay price of 50 ticks or more lower than the price i have i lay it, if a team has a back price of 50 ticks or more than the price i have then i back it.
Only premiership games! (might look into other leagues at some point)
This weekends bets below...
BACKS
Stoke @ 6.40
Hull @ 14.00
Bolton @ 7.00
Everton Draw @ 3.40
Blackburn Draw @ 3.35
LAYS
Liverpool @ 1.70
Pompy Draw @ 3.45
Wolves Draw @ 3.45
Arsenal @ 1.57
Only premiership games! (might look into other leagues at some point)
This weekends bets below...
BACKS
Stoke @ 6.40
Hull @ 14.00
Bolton @ 7.00
Everton Draw @ 3.40
Blackburn Draw @ 3.35
LAYS
Liverpool @ 1.70
Pompy Draw @ 3.45
Wolves Draw @ 3.45
Arsenal @ 1.57
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Replies: 17
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stoke now into 5.00 to back and liverpool out to 1.94 to lay ;-)
market was way wrong and still is, still huge value in stoke @ 4/1 and anything odds on lay of liverpool is value |
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Good Luck with this
I like Liverpool at Odds On myself :) .Mainly i think i differ in that i don't rate current form as such a big factor . Laying Liverpool last few months would have made people plenty , but the prices being offerd might be getting too generous now. |
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What 'do you do' to 'price up the odds'?
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liverpool now out to 2.18 to lay and stoke 4.20 to back ;-)
the huge cok up was there clear as day and i spotted it a mile away the market still isnt correct so still value in backing stoke but not much laying liverpool |
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the market moved so much because of the injuries, and confirmed absence, of Torres and Gerrard
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it was priced wrongly from the outset
it is still wrong for torres and gerrard playing , the fact they are both out with benayoun out also stoke are favs to win this over liverpool i know instantly when a price is way out of line and this is one of those times, too many just going on liverpools reputations and name, fact is the anyone who thinks liverpool are 2.5 x more likely to win this match than stoke know nothing about football ;-) |
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the fact is though, and you made a good call, if Liverpool had won yesterday and Torres and Gerrard were fit Liverpool would have been around 1.7-1.8 to win at Stoke. I don't dispute that price being too short but the major movement came as the announcement was made just like the major movement on Torres being prem top scorer ;)
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yes i know that m8, my point is liverpool full strenght are not 1.70 to win away at stoke and stoke are not 6.40 to win at home to liverpool
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these are all outright lays then?
I apologise i thought you were attempting to trade pre game. Would you consider backing Liverpool when they reach your value price then? |
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the huge cok up was there clear as day and i spotted it a mile away
lol Have you ever wondered why the layers seem to continue making similar "cok ups" year after year? I agree the Stoke price was and probably still is value but dont fool yourself into thinking you have spotted a massive bookie error |
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buzzer i will trade accordingly, plan is to make money and would be stupid not to take the free money now, but the majority of profit will be the stoke win and the draw
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ez im not fooling myself into anything, stoke are nowhere near 6.40 to beat liverpool at home!!!!
i know the true price of a stoke victory ;-), like i said i like 50 ticks margin in value to make up for the times im out abit, im getting well over 200 ticks value stoke may not win but have more than a 15.62% chance of doing so |
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I agree that Stoke are prob value at the current price and were massive at 6.0+ but my point was its not a bookie cok up as you said.
They know what they are doing when they price up like that. They know what Liverpools true price is and they know what they can get away with putting Liverpool at. It is only because the world and his wife want to back Stoke today that they have had to cut. |
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Would you agree that there is still value in backing stoke, with a view to trade later, or this will be more or less the SP?
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Liverpool a great bet at odds against
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How are you defining tick here? 50 seems a huge amount.
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presumably he means 6.50 - 6.00
not how i would define it either |