General Betting
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Probably boredom i.e putting daft bets on.
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taking poor prices and poor money management in most cases
Like most punters I fall down from the following (mostly combined with each other):
1: Gambling whilst drunk
2: Chasing losses
3: Backing heavy odds on shots
1: Gambling whilst drunk
2: Chasing losses
3: Backing heavy odds on shots
i win nearly every day...then one day in every fortnight i start chasing ....the red mist descends and i do the 2 weeks profit
i always swear i will never do it again....but i always do
i always swear i will never do it again....but i always do
To make money there is a very basic formula to follow:
You need to do at least one of the following:
1) Make more on winning bets than you lose on losing bets
2) Win more often than you lose
If you can achieve both, you will be successful.
If you achieve one of the above, you may be successful.
If you achieve none of the above, you will not be successful.
You need to do at least one of the following:
1) Make more on winning bets than you lose on losing bets
2) Win more often than you lose
If you can achieve both, you will be successful.
If you achieve one of the above, you may be successful.
If you achieve none of the above, you will not be successful.
Spending too much time posting on the forum.
Winning punters have a combination of instinct, knowledge and luck in their favour.
All this talk of discipline (apart from extremely reckless and impulsive risk taking) is a bit misleading, people look back on bets if they go wrong and say it was down to lack of discipline, yet if those same risks taken had instead come off these would not have been ill disciplined bets but instead explained as well thought out and calculated/aggressive risks. That's where instinct and knowledge comes into the equation (and of course lady luck needs to be on your side too at certain times) discipline has very little to do with it. Indeed some successful gamblers methods may well be deemed highly aggressive and risky, but if they come off more often than not and the prices produce a long term profit......
All this talk of discipline (apart from extremely reckless and impulsive risk taking) is a bit misleading, people look back on bets if they go wrong and say it was down to lack of discipline, yet if those same risks taken had instead come off these would not have been ill disciplined bets but instead explained as well thought out and calculated/aggressive risks. That's where instinct and knowledge comes into the equation (and of course lady luck needs to be on your side too at certain times) discipline has very little to do with it. Indeed some successful gamblers methods may well be deemed highly aggressive and risky, but if they come off more often than not and the prices produce a long term profit......
Nothing. I'm winning.
I'm not sure I agree with Opportunity Knocks. I suspect winning punters have a different personality type than losing ones, ie they never have the slightest desire to chase losses, and find the whole idea baffling.
I'm not sure I agree with Opportunity Knocks. I suspect winning punters have a different personality type than losing ones, ie they never have the slightest desire to chase losses, and find the whole idea baffling.
Moon Light, I was a losing punter for many, many years, but then became a winning punter. I don't think my personality or temperament to betting has changed much at all, but my experience has grown and things like knowledge and instinct I spoke of has gradually sharpened up too. You learn more and more about what are good prices and what are not, and how the markets work.
"Chasing" is often a negative term applied retrospectively to losing bets. Those same types of bets can then be recategorised as "aggressive staking" when they come off.
Every punter has to go through a learning curve which can be painful. I'm not sure I follow the logic that there are punters out there who've never ever lost control or either chased or aggressively staked money following a loss or two.
"Chasing" is often a negative term applied retrospectively to losing bets. Those same types of bets can then be recategorised as "aggressive staking" when they come off.
Every punter has to go through a learning curve which can be painful. I'm not sure I follow the logic that there are punters out there who've never ever lost control or either chased or aggressively staked money following a loss or two.
For years, a complete lack of Discipline stopped me from being a winner. Sorted my act out last summer and now see a profit of around £10k when I look over the last 3 months.
Sounds so simple, but I have to fight the urge to bet so often!
Sounds so simple, but I have to fight the urge to bet so often!
Blaming losing bets on discipline and assuming all your winners were good bets.
This year I am winning, just thinking about what I am doing differently if anything.
Perhaps lack of experience and acceptance of losing bets.
greed is the thing with most i would guess if we could see the long term and build our pfofit with that in mind easy to say i know
I think without doubt chasing losses is the biggest problem.
I am broadly successful at it but every now and again i throw in losses of 50% of my bank through chasing.
Last week i was 7k up by Tuesday, lost 2k on a tennis match, and i was so annoyed that i piled 4k odds on when i would usually have left it to chase, and the whole downward spiral ended up with a 9k loss on Sunday and being 5k down for the week.
I placed bets that i would never usually have - at stakes i would never usually have all because of 1 losing bet.
For me success is all dependant on better discipline.
I am broadly successful at it but every now and again i throw in losses of 50% of my bank through chasing.
Last week i was 7k up by Tuesday, lost 2k on a tennis match, and i was so annoyed that i piled 4k odds on when i would usually have left it to chase, and the whole downward spiral ended up with a 9k loss on Sunday and being 5k down for the week.
I placed bets that i would never usually have - at stakes i would never usually have all because of 1 losing bet.
For me success is all dependant on better discipline.
As said before, Basically taking a losing bet on the chin and not chasing losses :-(
Anyone losing on here has only themselves to blame...Who's got the most money punters or bookies....LAY all day.These English races pricewise and for liquidity are a layers dream.
I stay up all night to lay them.
I stay up all night to lay them.
I recently chilled from October on from the daily grind. Found for the hours, the return was not there.
In 1999, when I walked away from rock'n'roll, I enjoyed becoming a fan again. Going to shows, buying CD's rather than the labels stacking them on my desk, reading about music.
So I took the same attitude to sports the past few months. It's made a difference and made me research bets more (and enjoy it) rather than chase pixels with my mouse.
Looking over the past year, the two major factors that caused red:
a) overexposing the bank: This leads to gambling on in-running, gambling on the market coming back your way if trading, gambling....you get the point.
which leads to:
b) Also, atleast once a month while trading, a technical glitch either with myself, the internet or betfair would cause a unnecessary red. We need to remember that this is a chain of technology and anything can affect us. If in doubt, close down for the day. Yesterday, I was aware that my PC was acting strange. I did my back-ups and rather than switching to another option or shutting down, I played a position that lost because my PC hung for 5 seconds, enough time for the market to suspend with unclosed positions (dogs). Not a huge hit but without that, I would have had a really positive day.
c) taking a punt and then trading: Checked my notes. Several winning punts became red from trading in-running. Also the reverse (trading then leaving exposure up when the opportunity to go green (the original intention) was there. Example: I had picked a winning football match (Roma) and traded during the last few minutes. Went from a 2 pt gain to a 4.5 pt loss in fifteen minutes. Why bother choosing a winning punt if you are going to kill it
Right now for another week, easing into the new year. Then next week will ramp it up and again the following week. Personal targets this year. And tight rules. I know where the green is and where (important) where I waste time (i.e. HGRN - next to break even NOTTS/PBAR huge profits. So more mornings doing research).
And, as the first part said, get back to enjoying sport again. Watch the hilites as a sports fan. Bet reasonably so that when your play looses, you can still appreciate the result and learn from it. And do the research. Like anything, you get back what you put into it.
Best of luck to everyone in twentyten
In 1999, when I walked away from rock'n'roll, I enjoyed becoming a fan again. Going to shows, buying CD's rather than the labels stacking them on my desk, reading about music.
So I took the same attitude to sports the past few months. It's made a difference and made me research bets more (and enjoy it) rather than chase pixels with my mouse.
Looking over the past year, the two major factors that caused red:
a) overexposing the bank: This leads to gambling on in-running, gambling on the market coming back your way if trading, gambling....you get the point.
which leads to:
b) Also, atleast once a month while trading, a technical glitch either with myself, the internet or betfair would cause a unnecessary red. We need to remember that this is a chain of technology and anything can affect us. If in doubt, close down for the day. Yesterday, I was aware that my PC was acting strange. I did my back-ups and rather than switching to another option or shutting down, I played a position that lost because my PC hung for 5 seconds, enough time for the market to suspend with unclosed positions (dogs). Not a huge hit but without that, I would have had a really positive day.
c) taking a punt and then trading: Checked my notes. Several winning punts became red from trading in-running. Also the reverse (trading then leaving exposure up when the opportunity to go green (the original intention) was there. Example: I had picked a winning football match (Roma) and traded during the last few minutes. Went from a 2 pt gain to a 4.5 pt loss in fifteen minutes. Why bother choosing a winning punt if you are going to kill it
Right now for another week, easing into the new year. Then next week will ramp it up and again the following week. Personal targets this year. And tight rules. I know where the green is and where (important) where I waste time (i.e. HGRN - next to break even NOTTS/PBAR huge profits. So more mornings doing research).
And, as the first part said, get back to enjoying sport again. Watch the hilites as a sports fan. Bet reasonably so that when your play looses, you can still appreciate the result and learn from it. And do the research. Like anything, you get back what you put into it.
Best of luck to everyone in twentyten
everywon talks about discipline, but at trying times i would question anybodys
pistachio, it really is a weakness of human nature that, yes, creeps in constantly.
i would say my discipline was good , but still dont know how i would react to several unforseen circumstance. ie winning the lottery in reverse.
everywon is tested on here at times, and when you think you have everything covered, something else comes along to give that doubt
what stops you from being a winning punter is not the losing bets, it's the reaction you have to the losing bets
Agreed....as I typed before:
Bet reasonably so that when your play looses, you can still appreciate the result and learn from it.
I really found the two went hand in hand.
Bet reasonably so that when your play looses, you can still appreciate the result and learn from it.
I really found the two went hand in hand.
Shapeshifter i see what you mean but you have to bet big to win big sometimes. Over conservatism is a strategy that will also never see you fulfill the profits you can potentially make
I do throttle up (and down) based on my short-term gains.
Monday, great day and could do no wrong. So that night on Man City game, went to the table with half of what I wager and looked for the play. Even when Man City drifted before the start (1.6 or so), still felt the return wasn't worth it so dug deeper and found that all but one of the games they had won at home had been a Man City / Man City result in HT/FT. So took the 6/4 on offer.
Thus researched a bit more. Bet 50% of what I normally would have but landed a decent return.
I then took part of that into my nightly NHL which didn't oblige but still went into Tuesday with part of Man City on top of Monday.
Lumping on: I'm a bit more of a steady gains player. Yes, I will ramp it up occassionally but overall I prefer to look at my weekly return rather than "the moment"
Monday, great day and could do no wrong. So that night on Man City game, went to the table with half of what I wager and looked for the play. Even when Man City drifted before the start (1.6 or so), still felt the return wasn't worth it so dug deeper and found that all but one of the games they had won at home had been a Man City / Man City result in HT/FT. So took the 6/4 on offer.
Thus researched a bit more. Bet 50% of what I normally would have but landed a decent return.
I then took part of that into my nightly NHL which didn't oblige but still went into Tuesday with part of Man City on top of Monday.
Lumping on: I'm a bit more of a steady gains player. Yes, I will ramp it up occassionally but overall I prefer to look at my weekly return rather than "the moment"
I still find this "chasing" baffling.
You have certain methods that you have reason to believe are winning long-term.
You have a bad day. So you start placing bets that you wouldn't normally do.
Why would you expect these bets to win? They are not based on your known winning methods, so there is no reason at all to believe that they will be winning bets.
If you behave like a mug punter, surely you should expect to lose like a mug punter?
You have certain methods that you have reason to believe are winning long-term.
You have a bad day. So you start placing bets that you wouldn't normally do.
Why would you expect these bets to win? They are not based on your known winning methods, so there is no reason at all to believe that they will be winning bets.
If you behave like a mug punter, surely you should expect to lose like a mug punter?
Failure to stick religiously to a preconceived plan on selections and money management.
Reacting to WINNING bets . I can take the losses providing I can justify the bets. Its the handling of a winning run that does me in, the 'fiding' of unneccessary bets, or indeed overstaking because I am a few grand in front.
What would happen if everybody suddenly became disciplined and only did the bets that they had originally intented to do and never did silly bets, would everybody on Betfair become a winner? surelly that would be mathematically impossible because the only money which is avaible on the exchange is from the people who use Betfair. It is not possible for every person to be successfull on the exchange, dont forget Betfair take out a significant proportion of the money invested in the form of commission.
If everybody became more disciplined their would still be winners and losers in my opinion but it would become more difficullt to be a successfull as the exchange became more efficient, though I wouldn't mind guessing it would still be the same people who are winners today who would be profitable in a newer tighter betfair setup.
The study of what divides a winner and a loser on here seems at the moment to be more down to the personality of the individual choosing to bet rather than the particular activity he engages on to bet on. I wonder if many of the people who win on here are successfull in other aspects of their lives maybe its a self fullfilling prophecy, if in most aspects of your life your a winner you just expect to win. Maybe most punters on here come on here in reality expecting to lose and so thats just what they do.
If everybody became more disciplined their would still be winners and losers in my opinion but it would become more difficullt to be a successfull as the exchange became more efficient, though I wouldn't mind guessing it would still be the same people who are winners today who would be profitable in a newer tighter betfair setup.
The study of what divides a winner and a loser on here seems at the moment to be more down to the personality of the individual choosing to bet rather than the particular activity he engages on to bet on. I wonder if many of the people who win on here are successfull in other aspects of their lives maybe its a self fullfilling prophecy, if in most aspects of your life your a winner you just expect to win. Maybe most punters on here come on here in reality expecting to lose and so thats just what they do.
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