General Betting
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Football: 60% of goals in 2nd half
This statistic itself is proof that scoring is not "random" or Poisson distribution
What's going on? why the speeding up over time?
This statistic itself is proof that scoring is not "random" or Poisson distribution
What's going on? why the speeding up over time?
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Replies: 15
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The 2nd half of the match is longer?
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If average first half is 46mins, average 2nd half is 48mins, that's a split of 49% - 51%.
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Goals beget goals, innit.
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are goals are planned , deliberate ?? - by both teams !!
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DOWN TO FATIGUE N COMPLACENCY .
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SM 10 Jan 11:03
Goals beget goals, innit. time of first goal is also skewed towrads second half |
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Teams tyre in the second half so part timers like Portsmouth will run out of legs towards the end of the second half.
The more staminafied teams like Arsenical United will take advantage of this and score more goles! I hope this clarifies the situation. Dr Aristotle Slicer PhD MB BS B Pharm MRCVS DRCOG Cert BHD Consultanant in the Statistical Analysis of Thymes of Goles North Southeast Mumbai University |
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Is there anything unexpected in these stats? Certainly for the English game I would say it's perfectly logical. Most matches see teams starting off trying not to conceded. As the game progresses one of the two teams will feel dominant and push for the goal. If one team is losing, they will feel obliged to push for the equaliser, thus committing players to attack and become susceptible to counter attacks. Add fatigue into the algorithm and goals will always be likely.
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Subs can make a big difference to a game and they usually come on in the 2nd half.
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at the end of a match you'll often get situations where one team is much more motivated to attack than in the first half. that would be my guess.
what does the distribution look like within the second half? |
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I couldn't argue with any of the reasons put up by Betfairy and others.
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while on the suject of fotbae,does anybody know what % of games has 2goals or more plz
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About 73% but that is dependent on total goal expectancy, say Chelsea v Portsmouth would have a higher goal anticipation.
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cheers ken thought u may know thx.
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there is not pressure to score a goal in the first 5 minutes of a game ,there is a lot of pressure for at least one team to do so in the last 5 minutes-thats why
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