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Hillary Clinton
09 Jan 10 11:04
Joined:
Date Joined: 19 Jun 07
| Topic/replies: 217 | Blogger: Hillary Clinton's blog
Hi, backed a player in a golf tournie, (best price on all other bookmakers was 33/1) after day 2 at 100/1. The golfer is now half way through his 3rd round and my bet is still listed on my internet account with a very well known High Street bookie. Can they still call a palpable?

Please help.
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Report Northbouy January 9, 2010 11:08 AM GMT
How much you got on? If small I doubt it will matter.
Report Hillary Clinton January 9, 2010 11:18 AM GMT
2 bets, £8 win and £5 e/w at 100/1.
Report Northbouy January 9, 2010 11:19 AM GMT
I would take 1.02 you are fine, but could be gubbed.
Report Hillary Clinton January 9, 2010 11:21 AM GMT
Thanks for the help, he is now 15/1 on Betfair !
Report Northbouy January 9, 2010 11:31 AM GMT
good luck and hope he comes through for you. then the bookie comes through for you too.
Report Treble_Underscore January 9, 2010 11:31 AM GMT
I wouldn't lay off too much - you could end up in the ultimate bad position if you fear a palp.

For what reason do you fear the palp - just that one book had him at 100 and the rest at 33s? Or were there a number of withdrawals etc and they hadn't made a new book?
Report Hillary Clinton January 9, 2010 11:35 AM GMT
Purely that their price was 100/1 and next best price was 33/1, across the High Street on Easyodds. He was tied for 5th after round 2.
Report Hillary Clinton January 9, 2010 11:35 AM GMT
I'm not going to bother laying off, for £18 I'll just let it ride.
Report Escapee January 9, 2010 1:36 PM GMT
100/1 is about 1% probability
33/1 is about 3% probability

They'd have a tough time trying to convince a Judge that a 2% difference in probability is Palpable Error.

I'd definitely sue in a small claims court if they tried it on
Report The Investor January 9, 2010 2:57 PM GMT
Escapee 09 Jan 14:36
100/1 is about 1% probability
33/1 is about 3% probability

They'd have a tough time trying to convince a Judge that a 2% difference in probability is Palpable Error.

I'd definitely sue in a small claims court if they tried it on


I don't understand why most people seem to think in this way. 2% being a 'small' difference. One event is three times more likely to occur than the other. To me that is a huge difference.

In decimal odds 101 is to 34 as 10.1 is to 3.4.
In one case there is roughly a '2% difference' in the other roughly a '20% difference'.
Report Escapee January 9, 2010 3:33 PM GMT
If you ask a bookie why they run a book at 120% they'll probably say to make a profit and allow for a margin of error.

A 2% variation in probability is well within the boundaries of the error margins when the probabilities can only be guesstiimated at best.



Or do you know the outcome probabilities of such an event with a greater accuracy than 2% ?

I think not
Report The Investor January 9, 2010 4:39 PM GMT
Or do you know the outcome probabilities of such an event with a greater accuracy than 2% ?

I think not


I can estimate outcome probabilities with greater accuracy than 2% on longshots.

For instance, I'll be able to asses whether something is closer to 1000/1 than 500/1. Using your line of reasoning that would imply a level of accuracy within 0.1%.
Report The Investor January 9, 2010 4:46 PM GMT
What I mean to make clear is that if an event is priced at 101% back and 99% lay, a longshot can still be way out of line.
Report Rory B. Bellows June 16, 2014 2:28 AM BST
Wonder what happened with this
Report SHAPESHIFTER June 16, 2014 11:24 AM BST

Jan 9, 2010 -- 7:36AM, Escapee wrote:


100/1 is about 1% probability33/1 is about 3% probabilityThey'd have a tough time trying to convince a Judge that a 2% difference in probability is Palpable Error.I'd definitely sue in a small claims court if they tried it on


I agree.

How would I do this?

I would have the bookie present several examples to the judge of prior errors that are considered palpable.

I would then calculate the percentage they were out.

Chances are, they would be larger percentages making this one look tight.

I would also show other events and sports where the bookies prices were paying better than 5% (football, baseball) than their competitors yet weren't considered 'palpable'.

Then, watch them squirm Cool

Report SHAPESHIFTER June 16, 2014 11:25 AM BST
I'd also wear a neck brace and walk with a cane....the suffering and stress showing. Devil
Report cornubia June 22, 2014 8:33 PM BST
In UK, Palpable error is illegal under the UK Gambling Act (all bets are recoverable in law - including bad bets) and Unfair Terms and Conditions Act.
For the latter palpable is one sided and undefinable. Bookmakers take views or used to - in law they are the expert at setting odds not the customer.
Bookmakers will not go to Small Claims Court but pay out as they know it is an area which they have no right to still keep in their terms and conditions. The GC ahould also pick this up as they have a legal duty to ensure gambling is conducted in a fair manner.
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