Why football kicks us in the balls time and again

[i] But what difference does so-called

The point is that odds are related to the probability of an outcome. The true odds of an event occuring (in decimal form) is calculated by inversing the probability i.e. if something has a 1 in 2 (1/2) chance of happening you flip it over so 2/1 = 2.0 = evens.
The only way to win in the long run is by backing selections at odds greater than their true odds of winning (value).
This is because if you back something which has an evens chance of winning at odds of less than 2.0 you will not win. Imagine a toin coss you toss a coin 400 times backing heads at 1.9, you'll expect heads to come out 200 times. If you were to back the 200 winning bets only you would have cumulative winnings of 180, however unfortunately you've backed the other 200 losing flips ergo a loss os 20.
Contrarily if you had backed heads at 2.1 you would have made 220 on the winning bets and lost 200 on the losing one's so outcome is 20 profit.
So want you want to be doing is backing selections on whether they are value rather than if you think they are going to win or not.
If your betting in a highstreet bookies the overround generally means your betting at odds that are 12% lower than the true odds. This will get magnified over multiple bets. The overround is calculated by adding the inverse of the odds of all possible outcomes and is an inbuilt statistical advantage. So it is often quite hard to find value in a betting market as the bookies have experts to price up the event or some take the prices of others.
The MWDS thread is quite a good read, he picks his own selection using a ratings system and identifies value bets. Last i looked he was doing pretty well.

If you're having these kinds of concerns, you're betting too big.

An individual loss should almost never have that kind of mental impact on you.

You're right that football matches are often decided by some random unpredictable event. That's why Newcastle were as high as 1.45 at home to Derby - in most other sports, the best team at home to one of the worst teams would be 1.1 or shorter.

In most sports the draw is of insignificance compared to football or does not exist, hence why you often get 1.1 or shorter top v bottom type games.

Oh dear! This really deserves a full blown essay, but I don't have the time or inclination. I'd suggest reading Kevn Pullen's section on football betting in the RP sports betting book as a starting place.

The problem with football really comes down to the fact that it is a low scoring game. Statistically, football is generally very sound in the long term, but in the short terms throws up odd results continuosly. You really need to understand the distribution of results/scores (etc) - even for seemingly one-sided matches.

My own research would not consider any team outside a top division to be value at sub 1.5 prices except in very special circumstanes. Others may disagee.

The problem with accumulators is they multiply the edge, and if that edge is with the bookies overound then you can see why they promote them so much.

Remember, footballers perform for many reasons and your money on here is not one of them.

Plechy a really good article that explains the quandry of most punters and thats the unpredictable nature of sport, but recently i have taken up betting in the goals market which as so far been successful, its about long hours of studying and not diverting off you're selections, i usually stick to my guns when betting but i did trade out of my position in the Arsenal v villa game only to see 3 goals going in under my nose after i backed 2 goals to go in, there are guys on here who put up good selections like jimbobjones who has a good strike rate, and as for as accas go have you tried the overs and unders accas, anyway we must all plough our own furrows and hope the gambling gods are kind to us in the future.

good luck

Plechy, an excellent read, thanks for posting. Just a few of points from me:

Football: The technical term you're describing with regard to the unpredictability of football is "low incidence of highly significant events". A single event can have a huge affect on the outcome of the game, and such events are normally highly unpredictable (like penalty decisions, missed chances, goals). I guess that's why football is the best loved sports, and why the referee is always surrounded by controversy.

Accumulators: As well as increasing the over-round against you accas also have another hugely undesirable effect; they remove control over staking. If your starting bank is £100, would you really want £200 profit from an acca riding on Chelsea to beat West Ham? Profitable punting is as much about bank management as it is about selections and prices.

Edge: "Yes, of course, it make good sense to carry out some rudimentary research before betting on anything, and indeed I do this. Study RFO every Tuesday and look up recent form, goals scored/conceded; injury and suspension updates, etc, etc."

Having an "edge" means "beating the average". If the average punter carries out rudimentary research, studies RFO every Tuesday and looks up recent form, goals scored/conceded, injury and suspension updates, etc, etc, then "having edge" means doing more than this.

Finally: don't fall into the trap of thinking that successful betting is only about statistical analysis and pricing; there are other ways. I'm a great believer in "gut feeling", or in-depth working knowledge. Detailed knowledge presents opportunities which statistics never even see.

Was talking to an ex professional footballer and they confirm that football is a very difficult game to predict how games will go. They never extrapolated reasons for this....but you have outlined some of the factors that make it a difficult game to predict.

Someone touched upon that your STAKING probably is out of kilter with your bank size..........and basically this is why you probably are not making a profit.

I know that when I operated with a small bank .....my football STAKING was c r a ppppppp!!!! Generally I would guess how games might go and they would , most of time , go the way I guessed. However, after say getting 6 games "right" , all it would take would me to over stake 1 game and all the profit would go plus a loss would be incurred.

Recently I at long last have had funds of a reasonable size and what I am finding is that :_

1. I guess on how game might develop.
2. Decide what my main bet will be........and what hedge bets to do in case game does not go to "plan".
3. Generally I am "right" on how a game will pan out........

This does not mean to say i will get it totally "wrong" now and then.....bound to, just the nature of gambling. However, over last two weeks am £252 in profit from bets on football. A small profit relatively speaking, but a profit related to stakes that were made.

Generally my guessing has been pretty good .....but was caught out on a few matches ( LIVERPOOL/MARSEILLE/NEWCASTLE etc) and those matches were "costly"........but still ahead in profit since using bigger stakes relative to bank size!

Still early days for me re football betting at stake level currently operating to, but I am feeling far more in control of a bet/s on a football match than when I was operating with small bank and pushing far too hard for profit and generally OVER STAKING to bank size.


£1,000 is the highest total amount risked by me over 5 games, and that has all I have used to make a small profit over 2 weeks.

Was £80 up yesterday on football.....but then lost £110 approx on NEWCASTLE game..........but won £68 on MAN CITY match to give an over all profit of £37 for day. Does not seem a lot......and had a goal been scored in Newcastle match would have been about £180 up on day......but it is just nature of betting that I will get a loss now and then.....as long as i am generally "right" on bets selected then I should make a profit is my approach NOW.

Also important not to dive in again on a match where your initial "plan" has worked to give a profit........this generally is not a "good thing to do" IMO.......though I know I will do so when I believe strongly that all the indicators give me belief a goal will be scored again!

As long as i am not losing with football bets i will be "happy" .....and making a small profit from relative bank size.......I don't really believe that the "edge" exists with football matches other than you have to be a good guesser on outcomes to have a chance of profit! ]:)

Horse racing is different for me , as there are definite edges I have ....and in 2010 I will attempt to make those edges pay , using a larger bank with larger stakes relative to bank size and using KELLY STAKING to help control my staking.

GL with bets...we all need that now and then!

Excellent post by TBF ....wd

[i]I read posts on here from smartarses who bang on about

I agree with the bit about match odds i dont think its possible to win long term there, but this is bf football trading can be very profitable i love the goal markets.As long as your not greedy 20-30 per game is relativley easy. . . .

I suggest you contact gamcare.
Try to stop betting today.
It will only ever cause you pain.

You don't need an edge on here any more than a shopkeeper needs to sell things for more than he paid for them.

Thanks to all for your responses. It would take too long to reply to every point raised, but here are a few more thoughts

ok let me tell you what my experience is regarding football.
please let me know what your opinion is. thanks in advance.

in the last 4.5 month I placed a total of 463 level stake bets.

each bet 100$.

right now I am up 28.43 x 100$. highest up move was 33.1 with commission paid.(about 1000$)

lowest down move was 8 = 800$

this all with a bank of 20 points = 2000$

with 46300$ turnover I have a plus of about 6%
if I take the bank as ROI I have a plus of 140%

what do you think? how many bets do I need to know that this is the right way to go? 1000 bets or more?

[i]Rugbyleaguer - stick to laying correct scores or short priced faves that you feel are no value.

Good shout! Im going to have a crack at laying correct scores. Ive reached the conclusion that its easier to predict what WILL NOT happen rather than trying to guess what might happen. In hindsight, it would have made much more sense to have laid Derby to win 0-2. They were always going to be under the cosh for long periods and it would be fair to assume that if they did manage to score once, they wouldnt exactly go hell for leather to sneak a second

A theme through your posts is that the unpredictability is a bad thing in gambling.

It's the unpredictability that makes pro gambling possible.

The Betfairy 29 Dec 12:49
This just means you have a gun with more empty barrels. Eventually you'll shoot yourself in the head.

I'd stick to Match Odds if I were you. That's where the real money is.

Nice phrase, but it's the Match Odds sector that is now plagued with too much volatility. Agree with the earlier comment that laying correct scores would be more profitable, long-term.

Lori 29 Dec 13:11
A theme through your posts is that the unpredictability is a bad thing in gambling. It's the unpredictability that makes pro gambling possible.

Of course, risk is ever-present in gambling and we can't back unless someone else is prepared to lay, and vice-versa. All I'm trying to say is that football is becoming INCREASINGLY risky as a means of long-term profit. The so-called 'bankers' (whose pre-match odds are already ridiculously skinny) are diminishing fast. It wasn't so long ago that you could back the likes of Man U, Liverpool, Chelsea at home (and very often away) with much confidence, but not so much now.

And that surely can't be a good thing for the punter.

The counter-argument is to say 'well, lay 'em then'. But that's no way to long-term profit either.

Correct score laying and trading in-running (with lots of discipline) appeal to me going forward from here.

And that surely can't be a good thing for the punter.

You're really not taking in much that anyone is trying to tell you here imo.

You bet on some things at some odds. If those things win more often than the odds say, you'll win in the long run (assuming correct staking, which is for other threads). If they don't, you won't.

Do you always watch your bets? I have quite a few bets where I just check the result at the end of the day (I'm not a soccer gambler but other sports). I do sweat more games than I probably should but while you seem to be angry at match of the day, by the time the highlights of my losers have come around I've pretty much forgotten them 95% of the time. If an individual result is making you happy/sad for more than a short period of time then you need to look at what you're doing.

I can barely remember bets from yesterday most of the time, I'm too busy worrying about finding my next bet.

Impossible to make money on football betting. There is very little edge in 99% of markets and most games are decided on random factors (except those involving top class teams - and they are always 1/4 shots)

Thank you, Lozzy.

lozzy -dont talk shyte
i make nothing on football at all ---but if over 7m is trraded on a shyte match ??????

If you think the markets are so efficient, ask yourself why, what methods make the markets so efficient. Then ask yourself what you can do differently, what can you do that the market makers can't?

I'd say go and watch games in the flesh (if you know the game) you'll see things and form opinions about teams that a bare result or even the televised game won't tell you.

I really do like some of these threads as they throw up some great insights and opinions from many different gamblers/traders/arbers..whatever people like to call themselves.

I am currently doing my best to stick to a target of 15% of my current bank per week. I am mostly a weekender as my mon-fri job doesn't always allow the time I need to take. Midweek I get involved in football and have often got burnt.

Good luck to all though.

15% per week :^0

Sorry Brian - best I can do when I manage it. Not in your league eh, but I tick over.

thatll get you over 1m in a years time from a grand :^0

I was going to say that Glasgow! 15% is an outstanding, but impossible achievement!!

'currently doing my best to stick to a target of 15% a week'

that is a target I set myself.

Don't make it each week....have it some weeks and not others (mostly not others).

I would say there are a some on here who do make 15% each week. Regularly.

Lozzy 29 Dec 17:42
Impossible to make money on football betting. There is very little edge in 99% of markets and most games are decided on random factors (except those involving top class teams - and they are always 1/4 shots)



Plechy 29 Dec 18:30
Thank you, Lozzy.


Confirmation bias.

You're basing your ideas on your own experiences and maybe a few people around you.

Someone who makes money long term betting on football can say with certainty that it's possible to make money betting on football long term.

Someone who loses money long term betting on football can make no judgment on whether or not it's possible to make money long term.

AT LAST someone IS TALKING SENSE. congratulations the investor

Investor - Someone who makes money long term betting on football can say with certainty that it's possible to make money betting on football long term.-----------------------------------

Do you include yourself among this group, Investor? If so, I take my hat off to you.

Actually, Lori touched on a point earlier about the unpredictable aspect of football betting presenting opportunities to profit (at least I think that's what he was getting at). On reflection, I have to agree. In the only two Premier League games tonight, we have seen Liverpool and Hull snatch unlikely results with just minutes to play.

I'm kicking myself now for seeing Bolton available to lay at 1.03 with 20+ mins left of the 90. It ended 2-2 and a golden chance was missed. Hull couldn't, could they? This is football so, to use my own original argument, the answer is YES!

The stupid thing is, I'd profited handsomely from a very similar situation a few weeks ago, when Spurs threw away a 2-0 lead at Everton. It's amazing how often a 2-0 lead is relinquished and I made a mental note then to always lay the leading team in those situations when there are at least 20 mins to play. I mean, how could anyone EXPECT Bolton to comfortably see out a 2-0 lead against anyone in the PL, home or away?

I lacked the discipline there to follow my own 'rules'.

Do we ever stop learning on here?

Plechy,

In my first six months on Betfair I did slightly better than break even, and since then I've been profiting consistently.
So that's three years, not exactly long term yet, but a good start!
99% of profit from football.

Investor, well done. If you don't mind me asking...which football markets do you dabble in and which ones bring you most success?

Do you use a particular strategy, or rely on 'gut feelings' during in-play games?

Cheers.

Main markets are Match Odds, Correct Score, Over/Unders and Total Goals.

I started out with Total Goals, as back in 2006 betfair had a special promotion on Asian Handicap and total goals markets where you only paid 1% commission. In 2006 I still managed to pay nearly 20% in charges to Betfair though, so it goes to show what a massive difference that commission discount made.

I look at markets, compare them with each other and see what the numbers tell me. Personally, I don't do any research into the teams; starting line-up, who's injured etc. What I do involves straight bets, trading and arbing across markets.

The only time 'gut-feel' ever comes into play is when I think something dodgy is going on. Match fixing for instance. There was a game between FK Baku and Ekrenas a while ago where the odds were so out of line it was completely ridiculous. Rather than profiting from this 'amazing opportunity' I felt something was wrong. I had a look on the forum and saw 100's of people were posting regarding this relatively unimportant game. I quickly traded out even though the odds were ridiculous, losing just under £1k. If I hadn't traded out, I would have ended up losing £7k. A few months later investigations began into match fixing in the champions league (qualifiers). I don't think any action was taken though.

The Betfairy 29 Dec 09:47

Accumulators: As well as increasing the over-round against you accas also have another hugely undesirable effect; they remove control over staking.

some excellent points betfairy but the above is total rubbish if you are selective and stake accordingly

The football markets are generally very sound and are based on a few underlying assumptions. If you can spot a flaw in theose assumptions then all the markets open themselves to a bit of value.

A big mistake is to play a match just because it's on tv or the only in running market. You need to decide if a match offers any betting value way before kick-off.

I'm an aussie and never had a bet on footballl in my life.But as an experienced gambler I'll throw my 2 cents in.Football,EPL,is watched by millions punted on by millions there can't be an edge.The odds must be very accurate.All bar 1% of freaks must be almost impossible to beat the odds.

doubleagent,

So you think that sports markets that attract a lot of money are almost perfectly efficient?

Absolutely not the case. I make my living from betting almost exclusively on top flight football (EPL, Serie A, Spanish Primera Division, etc). The greater the volume, the better as far as I'm concerned.

Good luck to you mate well done.I just feel that sports with such high exposure you are betting against a lot of guys that really know their stuff.Pickings must be slim.Profit over a year must depend on being 1/2% more accurate than thousands of others!

Yeah but you're also betting against thousands of folk who don't have a clue and who only come on betfair for the big EPL games...

Don't really agree with you Rocket.Let's face it it's two teams against each other with fully exposed form.Where are the secrets? There's easier things to bet on.

The Betfairy 29 Dec 09:47
Plechy, an excellent read, thanks for posting. Just a few of points from me:

Finally: don't fall into the trap of thinking that successful betting is only about statistical analysis and pricing; there are other ways. I'm a great believer in "gut feeling", or in-depth working knowledge. Detailed knowledge presents opportunities which statistics never even see.


I totally agree with this. This 'edge' that people speak of, does not neccesarily mean research about teams on the day. I believe that my 'edge' is ME. But it took years of hard work and study and practice to gain that edge.

As Betfairy says, I can now spot things during and before a match which I would never have noticed when I first started on BF. It doesn't gurantee success but with the usual discipline, good strategy etc, it can make you profitable.

in play football markets often have value odds available, even more so in the less liquid games where people are desperate to close positions at the first available price offered after a goal/sending off