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heroin bob
29 Dec 09 14:41
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Date Joined: 30 Aug 07
| Topic/replies: 4 | Blogger: heroin bob's blog
Hello,

First post here as something has played on my mind recently. I think i'm modestly good at finding opportunities where I believe the price is wrong allowing me to back, knowing I'll be able to lay at a lower price. A recent example of this is the chritmas number 1 which I backed at 20/1 and layed at approx 6/1. However I was going to let this run and had sveral chances to lay at a much lower price but greed got the better of me.

So to cut a long story short, do people have any rules they use when backing with the intention to lay at a later date?

Cheers

Heroin Bob

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Replies: 6
By:
thebeg
When: 29 Dec 09 14:44
get off the gear first
By:
Lori
When: 29 Dec 09 14:44
Think about what you're doing and do it.

If you're backing a 20/1 shot because you want to lay off at 6/1, then unless something massive has changed when it hits 6/1 (presumably it hits 6/1 too early because that's why you've backed it to lay in the first place), then lay it. If you're not laying at this point most of the time, you're overstaking, as you've likely bet bigger because you're laying off later.

For the sake of argument let's say a 20/1 shot goes to 6/1 about once in three. You can bet a lot bigger on a 2/1 shot than a 20/1 shot, so if you don't do what you said, you'll go bust in the long run.

Also define your downside. Are you letting the whole bet run to 6/1, or are you bailing out if something goes wrong and it hits 50/1. If you've made this decision in advance, then you won't have that "Blah, it's only a few quid, I'll let it right" moment and waste money when it gets there.
By:
Aunty Post
When: 29 Dec 09 14:46
Never, ever, bet when under the influence of drugs or alcohol.....hic!
By:
heroin bob
When: 29 Dec 09 14:52
I guess you can already see by a couple of posts why i chose this name back in my poker days ;).

Thanks for your feedback Lori. What happened was it actually went down to 2.6ish on betfair and i thought it had a good chance of winning so got a little greedy and thought i would let it get closer to 2 before I would lay (if at all), howver the day before the event was closing the price started going out again hence why i had to lay at 6/1 to ensure if it didn't come in I would lose 0. However this ate into any potential profit by approx 27%.
By:
heroin bob
When: 29 Dec 09 14:54
This is why for future reference if i have a plan in place I know what i need to do without thinking too much. I've messed up a bigger bet in the past by thinking too much.
By:
Lori
When: 29 Dec 09 14:57
That's key imo with those bets.

You make the plan when you're thinking clearly about the bet, so it's likely pretty good.
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