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06 Mar 09
16:20
Joined:
Date Joined:
27 Aug 07
I tried laying the "shorteners" today. I think I've found a decent backing system.
Horse Racing: -GBP26.56 Total P&L: -GBP26.56
Horse Racing Showing 1 - 16 of 16 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Horse Racing / Sand 6th Mar : 2m Nov Hrd 06-Mar-09 17:05 06-Mar-09 17:14 1.76
Horse Racing / Winc 6th Mar : 2m Hcap Chs 06-Mar-09 16:55 06-Mar-09 17:04 -6.67
Horse Racing / Leic 6th Mar : 2m7f Hcap Chs 06-Mar-09 16:50 06-Mar-09 17:03 -10.00
Horse Racing / Ayr 6th Mar : 2m5f Hcap Hrd 06-Mar-09 16:40 06-Mar-09 16:48 2.96
Horse Racing / Sand 6th Mar : 3m Hunt Chs 06-Mar-09 16:30 06-Mar-09 16:38 -7.84
Horse Racing / Winc 6th Mar : 3m3f Hcap Chs 06-Mar-09 16:20 06-Mar-09 16:33 -10.00
Horse Racing / Leic 6th Mar : 2m Hcap Chs 06-Mar-09 16:15 06-Mar-09 16:21 2.11
Horse Racing / Ayr 6th Mar : 3m1f Hcap Chs 06-Mar-09 16:05 06-Mar-09 16:14 6.09
Horse Racing / Leic 6th Mar : 2m7f Hunt Chs 06-Mar-09 15:40 06-Mar-09 15:49 2.20
Horse Racing / Ayr 6th Mar : 2m Hcap Hrd 06-Mar-09 15:30 06-Mar-09 15:38 1.60
Horse Racing / Sand 6th Mar : 3m Chs 06-Mar-09 15:20 06-Mar-09 15:29 1.53
Horse Racing / Winc 6th Mar : 2m Hcap Hrd 06-Mar-09 15:10 06-Mar-09 15:19 -7.76
Horse Racing / Ayr 6th Mar : 2m4f Mdn Hrd 06-Mar-09 14:20 06-Mar-09 15:08 2.64
Horse Racing / Sand 6th Mar : 2m4f Hcap Chs 06-Mar-09 14:45 06-Mar-09 14:54 1.45
Horse Racing / Winc 6th Mar : 2m5f Hcap Chs 06-Mar-09 14:35 06-Mar-09 14:43 3.37
Horse Racing / Sand 6th Mar : 2m Hcap Hrd 06-Mar-09 14:10 06-Mar-09 14:17 -10.00
Horse Racing: -GBP26.56 Total P&L: -GBP26.56
Horse Racing Showing 1 - 16 of 16 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Horse Racing / Sand 6th Mar : 2m Nov Hrd 06-Mar-09 17:05 06-Mar-09 17:14 1.76
Horse Racing / Winc 6th Mar : 2m Hcap Chs 06-Mar-09 16:55 06-Mar-09 17:04 -6.67
Horse Racing / Leic 6th Mar : 2m7f Hcap Chs 06-Mar-09 16:50 06-Mar-09 17:03 -10.00
Horse Racing / Ayr 6th Mar : 2m5f Hcap Hrd 06-Mar-09 16:40 06-Mar-09 16:48 2.96
Horse Racing / Sand 6th Mar : 3m Hunt Chs 06-Mar-09 16:30 06-Mar-09 16:38 -7.84
Horse Racing / Winc 6th Mar : 3m3f Hcap Chs 06-Mar-09 16:20 06-Mar-09 16:33 -10.00
Horse Racing / Leic 6th Mar : 2m Hcap Chs 06-Mar-09 16:15 06-Mar-09 16:21 2.11
Horse Racing / Ayr 6th Mar : 3m1f Hcap Chs 06-Mar-09 16:05 06-Mar-09 16:14 6.09
Horse Racing / Leic 6th Mar : 2m7f Hunt Chs 06-Mar-09 15:40 06-Mar-09 15:49 2.20
Horse Racing / Ayr 6th Mar : 2m Hcap Hrd 06-Mar-09 15:30 06-Mar-09 15:38 1.60
Horse Racing / Sand 6th Mar : 3m Chs 06-Mar-09 15:20 06-Mar-09 15:29 1.53
Horse Racing / Winc 6th Mar : 2m Hcap Hrd 06-Mar-09 15:10 06-Mar-09 15:19 -7.76
Horse Racing / Ayr 6th Mar : 2m4f Mdn Hrd 06-Mar-09 14:20 06-Mar-09 15:08 2.64
Horse Racing / Sand 6th Mar : 2m4f Hcap Chs 06-Mar-09 14:45 06-Mar-09 14:54 1.45
Horse Racing / Winc 6th Mar : 2m5f Hcap Chs 06-Mar-09 14:35 06-Mar-09 14:43 3.37
Horse Racing / Sand 6th Mar : 2m Hcap Hrd 06-Mar-09 14:10 06-Mar-09 14:17 -10.00
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And there's another one. McEvoy 10/3 into 9/4.
I'm getting matched at well under opening show prices at the bookies,surely I should be winning ?
I'm getting matched at well under opening show prices at the bookies,surely I should be winning ?
Tocca Ferro is another one.Easy game this for backers today.
They don't all win,obviously,but 7 out of the 20 I've layed today have won. +11.5 pts even at bookies paltry SP.
Easy systems rarely work. That is why not everyone is rich. For a start your sample cannot show science (too few races) and secondly you have to work out whether the shorten is rational or irrational. Planned or unplanned (yes the market is manipulated) And that is just the start. You may be taking baby steps toward logic - but there is a long way to go if that is all you have in your staking plan locker.
I had some interesting stats on shortners that took me three months to compile. I accidently chucked them in the bin, I know they were interesting but I cant remember exactly why.
It's not a system,I'm just offering odds at well under the going rate,getting matched on at least one per race,and getting stuffed.
Even though today's sample is small,I've been doing this for a few months and got nowhere.
I've been thinking I'm getting value,but clearly I'm not.
Possible solution is to follow the market i.e back shorteners,lay drifters ?
I've layed Vicario and Seeking Straight in the last.
Even though today's sample is small,I've been doing this for a few months and got nowhere.
I've been thinking I'm getting value,but clearly I'm not.
Possible solution is to follow the market i.e back shorteners,lay drifters ?
I've layed Vicario and Seeking Straight in the last.
Vicario was trading at 6.0 and Seeking Spirit was 8.4 when I made my offers.
I got matched at 4.7 and 6.4 respectively.
It's like that EVERY race.
Can someone (possibly with a degree in maths and probability) please explain to me why I'm not winning over the last month or so ?
I got matched at 4.7 and 6.4 respectively.
It's like that EVERY race.
Can someone (possibly with a degree in maths and probability) please explain to me why I'm not winning over the last month or so ?
The economists will tell you that prices at the close of a market are efficient. In other words the insiders who knew that Vicario and Seeking Spirit had a good chance would back those horses until they no longer represented value. I dont buy that at all though.
If only 10 people were truly in the know and they knew those horses should have been for example 3.0 then it does not mean that is what the price will end up as because they will be able to get all their required stake on at higher prices. Its possible that they knew the 4.7 was still value but they had no money left to back it. And because the rest of the market didnt know the horse should have been 3.0 there was nobody left to force the odds down to a true level.
If only 10 people were truly in the know and they knew those horses should have been for example 3.0 then it does not mean that is what the price will end up as because they will be able to get all their required stake on at higher prices. Its possible that they knew the 4.7 was still value but they had no money left to back it. And because the rest of the market didnt know the horse should have been 3.0 there was nobody left to force the odds down to a true level.
So despite laying at lower odds,I'm still laying over the odds on some,which is why I'm getting nowhere.
I suppose the answer is to back the shorteners early enough.
I suppose the answer is to back the shorteners early enough.
Bingo. Now all you need to work out is which ones will shorten.
Studied steamers and drifters extensively.
Never found a significant edge,backing or laying.
If you accept that Betfair is a 100% market with no overround,then basically horses are starting at the right prices overall.
Therefore the prices of steamers and drifters were previously too small or large,but end up at roughly the right prices.
All in all it comes back to what is value.
Never found a significant edge,backing or laying.
If you accept that Betfair is a 100% market with no overround,then basically horses are starting at the right prices overall.
Therefore the prices of steamers and drifters were previously too small or large,but end up at roughly the right prices.
All in all it comes back to what is value.
I've just told you - the reason is that you have a simple system and they don't work. Go away and read a book. Better still go away and read a hundred books. Horse racing has maths on several levels - a good player may cross ten strategies over a race to see how many line up! Why would they bother if your "system" gave a happy payout all the time?
If you want to win from starting stalls to line you have to have an independent opinion - odds making - and you have to be right a lot of the time. If you haven't those skills you have NO CHANCE. NON.
What you may be pray to today (and I am guessing) is "over-losing" and there maybe days/times where you are "over-winning". I bet a lot to even these things out. Acknowledging they are there would be a start with some people.
If you want to win from starting stalls to line you have to have an independent opinion - odds making - and you have to be right a lot of the time. If you haven't those skills you have NO CHANCE. NON.
What you may be pray to today (and I am guessing) is "over-losing" and there maybe days/times where you are "over-winning". I bet a lot to even these things out. Acknowledging they are there would be a start with some people.
Pedro...I don't expect to win every race or even every day/week.
Your guess is a good one.I've had fantastic winning days and bad losing days.Today isn't the worst day.
i'm not looking for the answer here,just an explanation.Robins post sounds feasible,though I'm still struggling to get my head around that I'm getting matched at crap odds in comparison to the prevailing odds 10 mins before the race,but still can't make much headway.
Like you say,if it was that easy we would all be doing it I suppose.
Your guess is a good one.I've had fantastic winning days and bad losing days.Today isn't the worst day.
i'm not looking for the answer here,just an explanation.Robins post sounds feasible,though I'm still struggling to get my head around that I'm getting matched at crap odds in comparison to the prevailing odds 10 mins before the race,but still can't make much headway.
Like you say,if it was that easy we would all be doing it I suppose.
go away and read a hundred books
No need to read any books just watch and learn.
No need to read any books just watch and learn.
I agree things are there that shouldn't be! Not if racing is totally straight. That why racing won't undergo forensic accountancy. Poker sites are very aware of people shouting "player X" is looking at the other cards and releases the data to prove they are not. Although in one case it was proved that someone was!
TskTskTsk! Swings and Roundabouts... for UK only (0% comm)
Jan - Feb Less than 6.00 BSP LAY +56 points (Max +66 Min -15)
Jan - Feb Less than 3.00 BSP LAY +14 points (Max +23 Min -8)
March 1-6 Less Than 6.00 BSP LAY -21 points (Max +5 Min -21)
March 1-6 Less Than 3.00 BSP LAY -4 points (Max +3 Min -9)
Jan - Feb Less than 6.00 BSP LAY +56 points (Max +66 Min -15)
Jan - Feb Less than 3.00 BSP LAY +14 points (Max +23 Min -8)
March 1-6 Less Than 6.00 BSP LAY -21 points (Max +5 Min -21)
March 1-6 Less Than 3.00 BSP LAY -4 points (Max +3 Min -9)
So +45 less comm so far this year. I'll stick to under 6.0. There have been days when 14's into 8's winners have ruined the day.
Okay, I'll bite...
The stats are for this month to boxing day, taken from the all UK horses that started at an BSP of less than 21.00 and a resulting laying LOSS of 131 points.
If you had only layed the above horses that more than halved from the opening price (less than 50%) you would have LOST 11 points.
If you had only layed horses than shortened to less than 70% (which includes the less than 50%) you would ended with PROFIT of 3 points.
Instead of less than 21.00 BSP you only laid horses less than 6.00 BSP you still would have LOST 13 points.
From the above BSP the less than 50 percenters would have made a laying PROFIT of 4 points while the 70 percenters would have made a PROFIT of 17 points
And you don't need 10 plicks to get off on ;)
The stats are for this month to boxing day, taken from the all UK horses that started at an BSP of less than 21.00 and a resulting laying LOSS of 131 points.
If you had only layed the above horses that more than halved from the opening price (less than 50%) you would have LOST 11 points.
If you had only layed horses than shortened to less than 70% (which includes the less than 50%) you would ended with PROFIT of 3 points.
Instead of less than 21.00 BSP you only laid horses less than 6.00 BSP you still would have LOST 13 points.
From the above BSP the less than 50 percenters would have made a laying PROFIT of 4 points while the 70 percenters would have made a PROFIT of 17 points
And you don't need 10 plicks to get off on ;)
Tightfisted ....... 3 points profit... would not buy you a bowl of soup in a decent eating place ........... happy New Year .....
Trust you to seize on the lowest amount, Zippo. The £4.33 profit from your naps this month wouldn't keep you in toilet paper for a week, never mind the month, so I wish you better priced winners next year.
Tightfisted your the stats boy .. work my naps out to £150 to place . come back when you have grown up ........
Hy Thickho .... winning money big time on here..aint alll about backing winners ... you got that **head .......... happy new year .
Tightfisted this Big Bucks tomorrow is on the nose .......
There's still time to beat my total in the naps table Zip, scrap BIG BUCKS and try for another 20/1 winner, then you don't have to come across like a SORE LOSER...
I guess your nap will be either what ever the racing post rating picks on a 13 loss ....... or that legend Farringdon whos on a 13 losing run ........
20/1 winner are very hard to come by .... zip will be happy this month to finish in the first 4 .. and go up to the prem with you .
It will work for you as well Zippo, I made a mistake with your naps profit, instead of £4.33, its was less than HALF that. If BIG PRICE wins for you, you might reach £2 profit.
Zip, good news, if you finish in the top 5, I will ask to stay behind so keep on picking those winners. ;)
7.00 pm ..Zips got a Taxi booked .. taking my family too our fav eating place ... good night god bless .
or are u both just a couple of 2 yar olds?, from wot ive read of both of your postings, u both do ok, so y not just sgree 2 disagree?
ive had some sucess recently backing shorteners beore they shorten
if the market is most efficent at the close and these prices are related to probability i am fairly confident that by backing horses at bigger than betfair SP my success will continue
if the market is most efficent at the close and these prices are related to probability i am fairly confident that by backing horses at bigger than betfair SP my success will continue
I'll give you a hint.
On the other thread, I lay shorteners that fall well below 10 ticks.
From my stats you cannot predict the shorteners, but you can improve your odds of predicting them.
All shorteners are not value, the biggest percentage shorteners are, if you get in early enough.
Historically backing shorteners from say 9/1 to 7/1 is not profitable, even if you get 9/1.
However, backing a shortener from $2.70 to $2.30 is, but only if you can get on at $2.60 or better.
Look for well fancied shorteners and get on the moment a sniff of a move is presented in the ring.
Some will rebound, some will go back up higher, but enough will plummet to provide a decent return.
Where there is smoke there is fire as a rule, but where there is no smoke, the odds of a fire are massively reduced.
Yarra Valley (Aus) Race 3.
Czarpussy $4.00 $5.50 $3.80 $3.60 - matched @ $5.50 WON
Gavans Gift $2.70 $2.70 $2.40 $2.50 - matched @ $2.75 average odds LOST
Too easy. :D
On the other thread, I lay shorteners that fall well below 10 ticks.
From my stats you cannot predict the shorteners, but you can improve your odds of predicting them.
All shorteners are not value, the biggest percentage shorteners are, if you get in early enough.
Historically backing shorteners from say 9/1 to 7/1 is not profitable, even if you get 9/1.
However, backing a shortener from $2.70 to $2.30 is, but only if you can get on at $2.60 or better.
Look for well fancied shorteners and get on the moment a sniff of a move is presented in the ring.
Some will rebound, some will go back up higher, but enough will plummet to provide a decent return.
Where there is smoke there is fire as a rule, but where there is no smoke, the odds of a fire are massively reduced.
Yarra Valley (Aus) Race 3.
Czarpussy $4.00 $5.50 $3.80 $3.60 - matched @ $5.50 WON
Gavans Gift $2.70 $2.70 $2.40 $2.50 - matched @ $2.75 average odds LOST
Too easy. :D
The signal is the third fluctuation of both horses.
Amazingly, the price went up on the exchange on both horses, while the ring price kept falling.
Amazingly, the price went up on the exchange on both horses, while the ring price kept falling.
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