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General Betting
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21 Dec 09
22:37
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03 Aug 06
just after reading two dave nevison books.the first i liked.the second was diarty format of bet but didnt learn much any advice on how to go about makin tissue would be most grateful.just very interested in getting some pointers in this area
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Replies: 17
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www.kleenex.com
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All the advice I've ever seen on this has been incredibly naive.
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with ratings
what is it for though: horses, football? |
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You won't read much about the subject as it isn't something that can be taught. It is entirely subjective.
If you think a horse is a 6.0 chance and trust your own judgement, then it's a 6.0 chance. It really is that simple. Obviously if your prices are wildly different from Betfair on a race by race basis you might need to review your anlysis /ratings. If you have every evens money shot priced at 20.0 then something with your analysis is probably flawed. |
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I have assumed racing as that is the only sport I know. I imagine in a two team scenario the odds making process is much more refined as the fluctuations in odds pre match are very minimal.
In horse racing a horse priced @ 3.0 ten minutes before the off drifting out to 6.0 and back into 3.0 is not at all uncommon. If you had the horse proced @ 5.5, you would have backed the horse. I don't think the same happens with two team events pre off? |
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Football betting is much more mathematical, I think. Odds change due to injury news, or the manager saying he doesn't care about the tournament!
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Kevin Pullein's book (on Amazon) is probably the most informative for creating tissues for football.
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first of all you need to know what 3/1, 11/8 etc equate to in % terms.to do this get a calculator anf for 11/8 press 8 divided by 19 (you use the number on the right first then add both numbers together to get the second number) you should get 0.42105% ignore where the decimal point is and this gets rounded up to 42.11% for your 11/8. once you've got a grip on % betting its easy to make a 'book' for a rough guide each runner should have a built in profit margin of 1.5% so a 10 runner race should make up to 115%.
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Sports odds compilers are the sh1te under the shoes of horse race odds compilers (imo).
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Feck N. Eejit 24 Dec 14:52
Sports odds compilers are the sh1te under the shoes of horse race odds compilers (imo). Thanks. |
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cheers lads for all yer responses and i should have mentioned i meant for horrse racing.happy christmas everyone
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imo. To make a tissue you have to be a pretty good judge of form.
My approach is. to read the form (without looking at RP tissue).If I fancy anything,I will estimate a fair price,say 4/1.the fun then is hoping the RP prices is 6's+ and BF is 8's+. My best success was a couple of years ago in a Hunter Chase,I thought Belem Ranger was about a 12/1 chance.RP thought 25/1 (Heart Racing now) BF 50's.........Strolled Home. |
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* The key is what price would you be happy at backing it. you will soon see how good a judge of form you are.
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Feck N. Eejit 24 Dec 14:52
Sports odds compilers are the sh1te under the shoes of horse race odds compilers (imo). its the other way round when it comes to punting |
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Doubt it.
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Mark Coton and the American Mark Cramer have each written about making tissues, and another approach is to (naively) convert a set of ratings (eg RPRs or Timeform ratings) into probabilities (and hence prices). Then there is The Art of Legging and Malcolm**s The Art of Bookmaking.
As elton says, firstly you need to recognise that prices and probability are interchangeable, and you should print out a table of price to probabilities to odds conversions (aka field money book) if you are not already familiar with them. Also, practise combining them: eg, what are the combined odds of two 3/1 shots? For any race, first sort the runners into order (by likelihood of winning). What is the probability of your favourite winning? Then go along your sorted list pricing up the others but remember that the probabilities must add up to 100 per cent, and keep asking yourself at what price you would be happy to lay the horse as well as to back it. What I used to do is keep a note of the "remaining probability" as I went along. Say the favourite is 60 per cent likely to win, or a 4/6 shot. That leaves 40 per cent to be allocated between the other runners. If the favourite is twice as likely to win as the second favourite (note: not twice as good) then the second favourite must get 30 per cent, which leaves ten per cent for the rest of the field. Or you could just price them all up, and then adjust the probabilities/prices at the end. Note the first trap: overestimating the favourite. Mostly as punters we think in terms of absolutes: Kauto Star is an absolute certainty for the King George. Are you really willing to lay 100/1 the field? As a shortcut, you can lump horses together, especially the rags. But it is a lot of work, and takes too long given the number of races we now have, and I prefer to **. Take (in order of preference) the antepost market, the Betfair market or the Racing Post tissue as a starting point and just look for ricks: is the favourite about right, and are the other runners in the right order? And in fact these days I rarely bother at all. Certainly not unless I already have an interest in the race. Wealth warning: I am not and nor have I ever been a satchel swinger, and only lasted a couple of years as a backer before returning to a proper job for more money and less stress. |
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The Art of Legging
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