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General Betting
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Serious punters only please (not by bet size, but willingness to study).
Does anyone specialise in looking for winners at a limited number of distances, say 5/6f only, or 1m 2f/1m 4f only.
If you do, do you think doing so gives you a better chance of being succesful.
Does anyone specialise in looking for winners at a limited number of distances, say 5/6f only, or 1m 2f/1m 4f only.
If you do, do you think doing so gives you a better chance of being succesful.
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Replies: 34
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If you are taking positions then specialising is key. Trading, not so much.
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Yes. I started off doing 2yo races only and I miss those days when there was only a few races a day to watch, replay, rate (form and time) etc. Once the flat season settled down and the nurseries started it was money for nothing. I'd get to the stage where I could remember most horses recent runs and could make a fair guess at how the race would be run with likely pacesetters etc. You only get 4 or 5 months betting a year out of it, but it's worth the effort.
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Only distance i ever specialised in was 7 furlongs. Look for genuine 7 furlong horses make a list and you will do well . Too much for the sprinters moving up and too fast for the milers going down
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Yeah, I remember we had a thread about 7f on HR forum last year, lippy.
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I cover handicapper races - 7f - 12 f .
My methods are based on an excellent book called ' always back winners by stewart simpson [anyone remember this ? ] Also the 7f specialists is a tried and trusted method . |
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the 7 furlong one is a good shout
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Yeah, I have the book Custard. First racing book I bought, about 20 years ago. I too have only really looked at 7-12f, but don't really think that's specialising that much is it ?
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Never specialised by distance, but willy-nilly I've found that I knew a lot about a population of 120-140 horses who were all rated 85-105 and raced over 8-10f.
Because I cd form a good impression of whether each wd run well on the basis of form cycles, fitness, likely targets, trainer habits, conditions, track config. etc. I did better w/ them than on betting generally. My sense is that your 'population' of known runners can be as small as 40 e.g. Leagues 1 & 2. |
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I do trends on all the big handicaps, listed and pattern races. Not that "no 4yo has ever won this" garbage you read in the racing papers, its profitable year in year out.
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What kind of trends IK. I'll understand if you'd rather not say.
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Cant say, but year in year out all these races respond to similar analysis and have done for the last dozen years, I do each race individually, for tomorrow I'll do the Spring Mile, Lincoln and Cammidge, usually throws up up 2,3,4 qualifiers per race which I dutch. The trends analysis in the racing press is now overbet imo. But all the info you need is out there if you look hard enough.
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i do specialize,but to the extent that if i see a horse win on a certain type of track when the pace of the race was a certain way and it wins then i know i have a good horse for the future.Basically i race read and if at the 2 fur pole i consider that a horse cannot possibly win from the position its in,and it gets up then i know its good,trouble is 20/30 years ago you found one every week now once a month, its a possible winner and once in 6 months you find one very good[you have to watch so much rubbish racing.Ive always preffered 7f-10f handicaps [3-y-olds pref [unexposed]].I spotted Star Rage after he won his first 3 -y-old win.
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Always prefered 1.5-2 mile races on the flat (do have a glance at sprinters and milers though). Prefer novice hurdles and hunter chases mainly over NH though do glance at staying events under NH rules.
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ttt
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always back winners by stewart simpson is the handicap betting bible. Sadly the changes in the handicapping system have made it harder.
Like Feck, I now concentrate on 2yo races. |
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I don't any longer pierre, but I do pay special attention to them.
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For the 2yo specialists do you use the B2yoR website? This guy clearly knows his topic.
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anybody got a copy of that book to sell me? i had it years ago but god knows what happened to it, one of the better gambling themed books
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plenty on Amazon for a few quid.
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cheers ill have a look
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that book ranges from 6 to 95 on amazon! who would pay 95??
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Specialising is a must if you play racing. I am thinking of going back to it actually as pure trading is quite intense really. The problem is that to properly implement a racing system requires a LOT of devotion and persistence. That why - essentially - nobody really succeeds in doing it. Good luck all.
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Thanks for all the replies so far.
I've usually avoided 2yo races, but it's occurred to me that following 2yo's throughout their first year, even if you don't bet on them, would help you to get to know them so that you can understand their merits when they're older. The problem is, there's so many, and half of those turn out to be not fit for proper racies. |
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2yos that train on to be best 3yos are not usually tried hard as 2yos and dpn't ususally see the track until the autum.
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That's an interesting site mitch. Thanks for pointing it out.
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PHS
I specialise on Flat but incorporated Bumper races this winter for interest. Flat data goes back to 1982 and Bumpers to 1988 V Dartnall today with Jokers Legacy. The study provides 5 winners from 6 (other 2nd) in relation to winners last time out running in Open races. JL is a 6yo and 4 out of 5 in that age group are covered in above stats. I know its fav but four of the winners were around 5/2 mark. On Flat 5f sprints are ignored in terms of distance. |
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I specialise in 4 furlong sprints, nearly always have the leader one out.
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7-10F 4 me. I find my speed ratings less reliable outside this range
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Give me sprints and Draw Advantages every time.
Why did Epsom stop placing the starting stalls against the Low rail in All 5F races in the late 1980's ? Previously, all races were started with the stalls placed mainly Low, sometimes Centre - but NEVER High. Why did Doincaster lay new drains in the straight in the mid 1980's ? Remember Willie Carson taking a bad fall at Donny due to the new drains ? At Haydock, why did the number of 7F races for horses aged 3 yrs and older fall from 16 and 15 races in 2000 and 2001 to just 3 races with 8 or more runners in 2004 and 2 races in 2005 ? Why have Haydock (this winter) dug up the course and started to alter the bend ? If you know the answers to these questions before these actions took palce, you might be tempted to bet on the causes - Very strong Draw advantages. One word of warning - Don't be tempted to follow any newspaper advice on the subject, or listen to any TV pundits - they haven't a clue and never have had. They are all guessers - which of course works in the favour of a Draw Advantage student. |
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eh ?
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eh ?
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lippy - you must have read that ancient script from Stewart Simpson
"Always Back Winners" as this is fundamentally his system. Still holds good however as 7 furlongs is a specialist distance. I made money in my 60s youth from a old handicapper called Aberdeen who was a true 7 furlongs specialist. |
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I haven't properly followed the horses for a long time but when I did I ended up specialisng in high grade milers. Part of was wanting to have half a clue in my favourite the race; The Sussex Stakes, but the build up from the Guineas trials onwards proved quite profitable. Also made me follow 7f high grade handicaps.
I did a couple of seasons doing the big sprint handicaps and found that it was too much hard work for not enough return. Used to get stuck into nurserys, but there ws not enough of them. |
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1 mile and under, well drawn and hopefully a lot lighter than the top weight.
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