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stevies5_mufc
05 Dec 09 21:08
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Date Joined: 27 Jan 09
| Topic/replies: 17,764 | Blogger: stevies5_mufc's blog
hopefully this will help me keep my disipline, im goin to try and turn 100 into 1000 by xmas, going to take 25 bets all in each time at odds of 1.1 starting on monday
- 2 bets a day on weekdays (maximum)
-4 bets a day on saturday and sunday (maximum)
any thoughts on how to make my selections guys? appeciated, see jailer and tony not doing bad on the other thread :)
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Report Hull December 5, 2009 10:12 PM GMT
Any reason for 1.1, if you stick to this it will be very hard to achieve 25 games.
Report ocean0201 December 5, 2009 10:51 PM GMT
Stevie, I have followed your posts today and it seems you want to make £1000 from £100 in next 20 days (from christmas).. now its not an impossible task but i feel you are betting on too many games..

also i guess you will be looking at "1 goal or more" market with all-in every bet to reach your target.. again something that i think is very risky as there is no way to hedge against loss on such market due to short odds...

I will recommend this bet for bigger return and less risk..

Take Everton vs. Tottenham tomorrow. now the chances of this game ending 0-0 is low and also i expect both teams to score... i also expect the game to end over 2.5 ...

So, you can do the following bets

£81 on over 2.5 @ 1.94
£5 on 0-1 CS @ 10
£3 on 0-2 CS @ 16
£4 on 1-0 CS @ 12.5
£7 on 1-1 CS @ 7.4

This way you have a potential profit of £55 and a loss of -£55 as long as its not 0-0 or 2-0.... if it ends 0-0 or 2-0, you lose £100..

if you dont fancy overs then you can do reverse and returns are even better

If you do the same as 1 goal or more on this game, you get a return of only £7 and the risk of 0-0 is still there....

Think about it.. betfair gives you the oppurtunity to hedge your risks and having a single bet (all-in) sounds like great adventure but can end in tears when you bet £900 on 1.1 to win £90 ...

the everton spurs game was an example... historically this game has ended unders... so overs may not be a good bet .. read form and make your mind up...

Good luck with your attempt and hopefully you reach your target!

Cheers
Report JAILER December 6, 2009 5:03 AM GMT
You are setting yourself parameters that will restrict your betting, why? Doing this only cuts down your choices and could leave you feeling 'hemmed in' by your own rules.
Report OspreyMan December 6, 2009 9:24 AM GMT
In the last 10 games between this pair there was 7 unders 3 overs 4 of the last encounters have been unders which includes a cup game.
Report stevies5_mufc December 6, 2009 10:36 AM GMT
thanks for the opinions guys, i will probably vary the odds instead of 1.1 to between 1.05 and 1.1,
jailer i see your point mate, the reason behind it is to try and keep disipline, maybe i could forget about the number of bets per rule and hopefully use this forum to keep the disipline?
Report Hull December 6, 2009 11:00 AM GMT
varying the price will help, but it will still be hard, only about 1 in every 23 attempts reach 25 matches.

Good Luck
Report stevies5_mufc December 6, 2009 11:04 AM GMT
well, ill give it a shot anyway, wouldnt suprise me if i fail in the first day though or first week, would be nice to have some extra cash for xmas,
Report Hull December 6, 2009 11:09 AM GMT
yesterday was a bad day 13 0-0's.
Report stevies5_mufc December 6, 2009 11:18 AM GMT
hull i found 2 of them :( lol hamburg match, hannover match done me, then besiktas on friday night, cant believe they all ended 0-0
Report Hull December 6, 2009 11:31 AM GMT
I see your average is about 20 matches and climbing on 1goal challenge website.
Not bad going
Report stevies5_mufc December 6, 2009 12:21 PM GMT
yes hull, on 1 goal is just mainly random picks tbh with odds about 1.09 if i can lol or if there is a match on, here im being more selective
Report stevies5_mufc December 6, 2009 2:44 PM GMT
any recommendations on things i should look for when choosing a match such as the obvious things like strikers missing or formation?
Report lucky999 December 6, 2009 2:50 PM GMT
alway go for home team which is supposed to win - have fulham now and tonight I go for benfica (have just started the 1 goal website)
Report stevies5_mufc December 6, 2009 2:56 PM GMT
lucky, problem with that is that away team could park the bus...
Report Hull December 7, 2009 11:42 AM GMT
What u starting with Stevies
Report joeyunder3.5 December 7, 2009 2:03 PM GMT
why dont you lay over 4.5 goals....do the research on betfair stats....the best leagues ive found is the polish ,italian and greek leagues for under 3.5 or 4.5 you usually get around 1.15 and if your selective and do your research you can build up a decent amount pretty quick....i average aabout 150-200 a week doing it along with the odd horse to be placed and laying 9 corners....
Report stevies5_mufc December 7, 2009 3:43 PM GMT
thanks for that joey, will take it into consideration
Report stevies5_mufc December 7, 2009 3:43 PM GMT
1) int. Curtea de Arges vs CFR Cluj @ 1.09
Report stevies5_mufc December 7, 2009 4:32 PM GMT
bet 1) postponded, match called off after 25 minutes due to fog, thats my money tied up for few days :(
Report buzzer December 7, 2009 5:10 PM GMT
it's still playing it restarted
Report stevies5_mufc December 7, 2009 5:28 PM GMT
yep buzzer i see that now mate lol, not looking good anyway
Report buzzer December 7, 2009 5:50 PM GMT
how much you got riding on this?
Report buzzer December 7, 2009 5:52 PM GMT
0-1 as i typed, you got a break there
Report Hull December 7, 2009 5:57 PM GMT
always good to get 1st one away
Report stevies5_mufc December 7, 2009 6:07 PM GMT
phew, lucky to get away with that one haha
Report stevies5_mufc December 7, 2009 6:08 PM GMT
1) int. Curtea de Arges vs CFR Cluj @ 1.09 WON
2) Watford vs QPR @ 1.08

i know i had planned 1.1 but odds today are a little shorter so i dont mind, hopefully they will win anyway
Report alji December 7, 2009 6:10 PM GMT
Why don't you try bet against 0-0 streaks, or Over 4,5 streaks.
I'm using Bet Record Streaks software, there you can find all kinds of streaks based on over 30 types of bets, also special statistics available.

Maybe you should consider laying other correct scores, try to place multiple lay on correct scores, that's available on weekend games. You can easily place 5 multiples with 8 games on each with total odds @ 1,7 - 2,0 with very good chance to win.

Tomorrow and Wednesday you can also try Laying (correct score) multiples on Champions league
Report stevies5_mufc December 7, 2009 6:11 PM GMT
thanks alji mate, will have a look into that
Report stevies5_mufc December 7, 2009 8:58 PM GMT
1) int. Curtea de Arges vs CFR Cluj @ 1.09 WON
2) Watford vs QPR @ 1.08
3) salernitana v empoli @ 1.1
-not normally a good league for goals but have a good feeling about this match, empoli should prove too strong for them,expecting couple of goals in this match
Report fizz12 December 8, 2009 2:47 PM GMT
lucky, last of the 4 games to have a goal bet you were kicking yourself you hadnt done one of the others
Report stevies5_mufc December 8, 2009 4:33 PM GMT
1) int. Curtea de Arges vs CFR Cluj @ 1.09 WON
2) Watford vs QPR @ 1.08 WON
3) salernitana vs empoli @ 1.1 WON
4) Astra Ploiesti vs Dinamo Bucharest @ 1.1
Report wilson December 8, 2009 6:13 PM GMT
0 - 1
Report stevies5_mufc December 8, 2009 6:24 PM GMT
1) int. Curtea de Arges vs CFR Cluj @ 1.09 WON
2) Watford vs QPR @ 1.08 WON
3) salernitana vs empoli @ 1.1 WON
4) Astra Ploiesti vs Dinamo Bucharest @ 1.1 WON
5) Juventus vs Bayern Munich @ 1.11

bayern NEED to win to qualify, i dont expect juve to sit back here so expecting a goal, wont get money on this match for the first 5-10 mins until the other game is settled, gl all
Report stevies5_mufc December 8, 2009 6:37 PM GMT
change of plan for bet 5

1) int. Curtea de Arges vs CFR Cluj @ 1.09 WON
2) Watford vs QPR @ 1.08 WON
3) salernitana vs empoli @ 1.1 WON
4) Astra Ploiesti vs Dinamo Bucharest @ 1.1 WON
5) Atl Madrid vs Porto @ 1.10

*odds depending on what it is by the time i get my bet on in play*
Report stevies5_mufc December 8, 2009 6:47 PM GMT
change of plan again, other market wasnt settled and didnt get on in time

change of plan for bet 5

1) int. Curtea de Arges vs CFR Cluj @ 1.09 WON
2) Watford vs QPR @ 1.08 WON
3) salernitana vs empoli @ 1.1 WON
4) Astra Ploiesti vs Dinamo Bucharest @ 1.1 WON
Report stevies5_mufc December 8, 2009 6:58 PM GMT
1) int. Curtea de Arges vs CFR Cluj @ 1.09 WON
2) Watford vs QPR @ 1.08 WON
3) salernitana vs empoli @ 1.1 WON
4) Astra Ploiesti vs Dinamo Bucharest @ 1.1 WON
5) athletico madrid vs FC Porto @ 1.09 for 2 goals or more (already 0-1)
Report buzzer December 8, 2009 7:08 PM GMT
a quick winner for you for a change ;)
Report stevies5_mufc December 8, 2009 7:49 PM GMT
yes buzzer, also did a small lay of besiktas (currently 1-0 down) hoping to add extra 20 to kitty just for fun, so not actually going to record it in the goal challenge
Report Lusitano71 December 8, 2009 8:06 PM GMT
go stevie

you can do it ;)
Report stevies5_mufc December 8, 2009 8:36 PM GMT
hey lustiano thanks for support mate lol, im looking to do both argentina matches later but i dont think i would get paid out in time for the second would i?
Report stevies5_mufc December 8, 2009 9:38 PM GMT
1) int. Curtea de Arges vs CFR Cluj @ 1.09 WON
2) Watford vs QPR @ 1.08 WON
3) salernitana vs empoli @ 1.1 WON
4) Astra Ploiesti vs Dinamo Bucharest @ 1.1 WON
5) athletico madrid vs FC Porto @ 1.09 WON

decided to leave it there for today and stay away from last round of argentina matches, 5 bets in 2 days is enough,
Report wilson December 8, 2009 9:57 PM GMT
Nice one stevies
Report stevies5_mufc December 9, 2009 5:33 PM GMT
1) int. Curtea de Arges vs CFR Cluj @ 1.09 WON
2) Watford vs QPR @ 1.08 WON
3) salernitana vs empoli @ 1.1 WON
4) Astra Ploiesti vs Dinamo Bucharest @ 1.1 WON
5) athletico madrid vs FC Porto @ 1.09 WON
6) liverpool vs fiorentina @ 1.09
Report stevies5_mufc December 9, 2009 9:03 PM GMT
1) int. Curtea de Arges vs CFR Cluj @ 1.09 WON
2) Watford vs QPR @ 1.08 WON
3) salernitana vs empoli @ 1.1 WON
4) Astra Ploiesti vs Dinamo Bucharest @ 1.1 WON
5) athletico madrid vs FC Porto @ 1.09 WON
6) liverpool vs fiorentina @ 1.09 WON
7) Gimnasia LA Plata vs Newells old boys @ 1.1


expect this to be the toughest selection to date in 1 of the most unpredictable leagues but i just have a feeling newells will be on form here, coming off a loss expect them to turn it around here and the added incentive of going top of the league should they win this, come on the old boys do the business ;) :)
Report Hull December 9, 2009 9:32 PM GMT
Boooooooooooom
Report stevies5_mufc December 9, 2009 9:33 PM GMT
1) int. Curtea de Arges vs CFR Cluj @ 1.09 WON
2) Watford vs QPR @ 1.08 WON
3) salernitana vs empoli @ 1.1 WON
4) Astra Ploiesti vs Dinamo Bucharest @ 1.1 WON
5) athletico madrid vs FC Porto @ 1.09 WON
6) liverpool vs fiorentina @ 1.09 WON
7) Gimnasia LA Plata vs Newells old boys @ 1.1 WON

nice early goal in that one, i can go to sleep happily now, hope everyone had good night on champions league, best of luck all :)
Report wilson December 9, 2009 9:36 PM GMT
Nice one stevies.
Report stevies5_mufc December 10, 2009 4:06 PM GMT
1) int. Curtea de Arges vs CFR Cluj @ 1.09 WON
2) Watford vs QPR @ 1.08 WON
3) salernitana vs empoli @ 1.1 WON
4) Astra Ploiesti vs Dinamo Bucharest @ 1.1 WON
5) athletico madrid vs FC Porto @ 1.09 WON
6) liverpool vs fiorentina @ 1.09 WON
7) Gimnasia LA Plata vs Newells old boys @ 1.1 WON
8) lille vs St Etienne @ 1.08

the good old unpredictable league ;) lille scored 4 last time out and conceded 3, whats the chances of a 0-0 on this one? lol :)
Report wilson December 10, 2009 6:17 PM GMT
Keep it going stevies
Report stevies5_mufc December 10, 2009 6:59 PM GMT
1) int. Curtea de Arges vs CFR Cluj @ 1.09 WON
2) Watford vs QPR @ 1.08 WON
3) salernitana vs empoli @ 1.1 WON
4) Astra Ploiesti vs Dinamo Bucharest @ 1.1 WON
5) athletico madrid vs FC Porto @ 1.09 WON
6) liverpool vs fiorentina @ 1.09 WON
7) Gimnasia LA Plata vs Newells old boys @ 1.1 WON
8) lille vs St Etienne @ 1.08 WON
9) chacarita vs Velez @ 14 (lay odds in c/s market)

hmmmm i hate betting on argentina, i know i shouldnt do it but im going out so felt ill do this 1 before i go out and keep on track.. should be fine though
Report Lusitano71 December 11, 2009 2:03 AM GMT
:( bad Luck stevie
Report stevies5_mufc December 11, 2009 3:22 PM GMT
oops, i deserved to lose that tbh, i know people make up excuses for losing these but i have my reasons lol
- put the bet on mainly to have some extra drinking money because i was heading out
- didnt really do much research was a more basis put the bet on because theres a match on
- i knew the argentina league was dodgy for goals and was playing with fire.. i got burned
going to start a fresh though, this time keep my drinking money away from my betting lol
Report stevies5_mufc December 11, 2009 3:35 PM GMT
ahwell going to keep going =]
1) Kaiserslautern v Koblenz @ 1.05
2) Antalyaspor v Galatasaray @ 1.08
3) Westerlo v Anderlecht @ 1.08
Report stevies5_mufc December 11, 2009 10:12 PM GMT
bank - £100 lol
1) Kaiserslautern v Koblenz @ 1.05 WON
2) Antalyaspor v Galatasaray @ 1.08 WON
3) Westerlo v Anderlecht @ 1.08 WON
Report stevies5_mufc December 11, 2009 10:58 PM GMT
bank - £100 lol
1) Kaiserslautern v Koblenz @ 1.05 WON
2) Antalyaspor v Galatasaray @ 1.08 WON
3) Westerlo v Anderlecht @ 1.08 WON
4) Kashima vs G-Osaka @ 1.06
Report stevies5_mufc December 12, 2009 9:53 AM GMT
bank - £100 lol
1) Kaiserslautern v Koblenz @ 1.05 WON
2) Antalyaspor v Galatasaray @ 1.08 WON
3) Westerlo v Anderlecht @ 1.08 WON
4) Kashima vs G-Osaka @ 1.06 WON
5) Stoke vs Wigan @ 1.10
Report Stringer December 12, 2009 11:44 AM GMT
Good luck steve mate...stoke vs wigan would be the last game i'd lay the 0-0 on though!!
Report stevies5_mufc December 12, 2009 11:48 AM GMT
stringer it should be fine mate, just hope its in the first half and good pace to the game, only time will tell
here we goooo....
Report Stringer December 12, 2009 12:14 PM GMT
BOOM. well in.
Report stevies5_mufc December 12, 2009 1:10 PM GMT
bank - £100 lol
1) Kaiserslautern v Koblenz @ 1.05 WON
2) Antalyaspor v Galatasaray @ 1.08 WON
3) Westerlo v Anderlecht @ 1.08 WON
4) Kashima vs G-Osaka @ 1.06 WON
5) Stoke vs Wigan @ 1.10 WON
6) Bochum vs B Munich @ 1.05 (may go on 2 goals or more depending on the time of first goal)

my main worry here is bochum park the bus like they did against koln got a 0-0 draw, but bayern are different quality to koln and are beginning to find some form in front of goal, come on bayern :)
Report Hull December 12, 2009 1:13 PM GMT
how u getting on that match when Stoke won't be settled
Report stevies5_mufc December 12, 2009 1:22 PM GMT
sorry forgot to write, traded out for £1.30 to put £130 on bayern game
Report Hull December 12, 2009 1:26 PM GMT
you traded out at 0-0 after ko and the price got shorter ??
Report stevies5_mufc December 12, 2009 1:32 PM GMT
backed at 1.1
layed at 1.01
whats wrong with that? lol i maybe wrote it wrong...
Report Hull December 12, 2009 1:40 PM GMT
LOL. Just a bit confused thats all. You backed 1 goal or more at 1.1 and layed off at 1.01.
How did it get as low as 1.01 before a goal was scored, or was it a late suspension after the goal.
Then again maybe im reading it wrong. GL
Report Hull December 12, 2009 1:44 PM GMT
Yeah i see now.LOL
Report stevies5_mufc December 12, 2009 1:45 PM GMT
it was in total goals market, when a goal has been scored the lay odds go to 1.01 so you can lay off some if you wish to put money on something else lol
Report Hull December 12, 2009 1:49 PM GMT
yep i soon realised, don't like giving free money to layers that realise this though myself.
Report stevies5_mufc December 12, 2009 1:58 PM GMT
bank - £100 lol
1) Kaiserslautern v Koblenz @ 1.05 WON
2) Antalyaspor v Galatasaray @ 1.08 WON
3) Westerlo v Anderlecht @ 1.08 WON
4) Kashima vs G-Osaka @ 1.06 WON
5) Stoke vs Wigan @ 1.10 WON
6) Bochum vs B Munich @ 1.05 WON
7) Bochum vs B Munich @ 1.11 (2goals or more :) )
Report stevies5_mufc December 12, 2009 1:58 PM GMT
bank - £100 lol
1) Kaiserslautern v Koblenz @ 1.05 WON
2) Antalyaspor v Galatasaray @ 1.08 WON
3) Westerlo v Anderlecht @ 1.08 WON
4) Kashima vs G-Osaka @ 1.06 WON
5) Stoke vs Wigan @ 1.10 WON
6) Bochum vs B Munich @ 1.05 WON
7) Bochum vs B Munich @ 1.11 (2goals or more :) )
Report stevies5_mufc December 12, 2009 2:10 PM GMT
bank - £100 lol
1) Kaiserslautern v Koblenz @ 1.05 WON
2) Antalyaspor v Galatasaray @ 1.08 WON
3) Westerlo v Anderlecht @ 1.08 WON
4) Kashima vs G-Osaka @ 1.06 WON
5) Stoke vs Wigan @ 1.10 WON
6) Bochum vs B Munich @ 1.05 WON
7) Bochum vs B Munich @ 1.11 WON (2 goals or more)
8) Bolton vs Man City @ 1.08
Report stevies5_mufc December 12, 2009 2:15 PM GMT
bank - £100 lol
1) Kaiserslautern v Koblenz @ 1.05 WON
2) Antalyaspor v Galatasaray @ 1.08 WON
3) Westerlo v Anderlecht @ 1.08 WON
4) Kashima vs G-Osaka @ 1.06 WON
5) Stoke vs Wigan @ 1.10 WON
6) Bochum vs B Munich @ 1.05 WON
7) Bochum vs B Munich @ 1.11 WON (2 goals or more) 0-1 ip
8) Bolton vs Man City @ 1.08 WON
9) Bolton vs Man City @ 1.08 (2 goals or more) 1-0 ip
Report stevies5_mufc December 12, 2009 2:34 PM GMT
bank - £100 lol
1) Kaiserslautern v Koblenz @ 1.05 WON
2) Antalyaspor v Galatasaray @ 1.08 WON
3) Westerlo v Anderlecht @ 1.08 WON
4) Kashima vs G-Osaka @ 1.06 WON
5) Stoke vs Wigan @ 1.10 WON
6) Bochum vs B Munich @ 1.05 WON
7) Bochum vs B Munich @ 1.11 WON (2 goals or more) 0-1 ip
8) Bolton vs Man City @ 1.08 WON
9) Bolton vs Man City @ 1.08 WON (2 goals or more) 1-0 ip
10) Tottenham vs Wolves @ 1.08 (2 goals or more) 0-1 ip
Report stevies5_mufc December 12, 2009 3:55 PM GMT
erm, oops lol after i get paid out on the other games i traded out of... im going chasing lol
Report stevies5_mufc December 12, 2009 4:30 PM GMT
--- END OF THREAD ---
cant be done (not by me anyway) dont have the disipline to do it, although i could sit here and argue that the spurs match was a fluke, it was my own fault for placing a bet i shouldnt have,anyway good luck all who try this in the future, just hope u have disipline :(
Report wilson December 12, 2009 6:43 PM GMT
Sorry to hear that stevies, perhaps it's for the best.
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