The Kwijs £100 to £5000 in 100 days laying the dogs

were u going ireland

Killarny - never been before - travlling early doors on Sunday morning - should be good .

Anyone been there ?

come up north and we can go to the dog racing in dundalk

You can use this to retrieve...http://www.gubbed.com/forum-search.fcgi

ttt

BUMP

Kwij- do you ever put up your lay bets prior to the race? it would be interesting to see your lay bets prior to the off as opposed to after.

WD so far tho, excellent profits. :-)

ttt

wellcome home kwij. tell us all about ure holiday in killarney

It was all very Irish - Killarney a well sized town - not too big - not too small - went to Dingle and Tralee but liked Kenmare most.

Beech at Inch was cool - Waterfall of Torc very pretty !


Next time Cork and Dublin ?????

I live in Killarney, where did you stay? didnt get carried away on the dog track did you?

afternoon paddy - we stayed at some holiday homes near The Malton hotel and train station - went into courtneys the most for some 'arrows' with a pint !

a minutes walk from me,if you saw the Centre store im in the penthouse apartment above it. new apartment block where dominoes pizza is. Know courtneys well ;-)

not always there though share my time between the wirral and killarney, im english the mrs is irish you see.

to be sure :)

Stats from Day 1

607 of 705 bets which is a 86% win rate


Revised Track stats:
1) Oxford (Won 62 of 66 races) 93.9% win rate
2) Nottingham (36/39) 92.3% win rate
3) Sheffield (74/81) 91.3% win rate
4) Sunderland (50/57) 87.7% win rate
5) Belle Vue (14/16) 87.5% win rate
6) Hall Green (56/65) 86.1% win rate
7) Hove (93/109) 85.3% win rate
8) Crayford (56/67) 83.5% win rate
9) Perry Barr (64/78) 82% win rate
10) Swindon (18/22) 81.8% win rate
11) Romford (47/59) 79.6% win rate
12) Newcastle (26/33) 78.7% win rate
13) Monmore (9/13) 69.2% win rate

GET READY FOR THE STALKERS PADDY

Stats for Day 32:

Won 11 of 11 races

Made a profit of 2.6% to £494.81 (Target for day 32 £350.81)


Stats since day 1:

Have won 618 of 716 races which is a 86.3% win rate

100% has this ever happened before

shotgun at the ready borderfox ;-)

told ya he was gonna make a million.believe in the power of the robot

freddie - 2nd time in 32 100%

B-)

kwijibo,

Have you considered removing the lower performing tracks from your bets ?

I am not sure if it is coincidental, but on a theoretical P&L analysis I did on laying greyhounds falling within a specific set of selection criteria I found that certain tracks repeatedly gave poorer returns. The worse tracks in alphabetical order were Crayfrd, Mnmore, Newcstle & Romfrd.

The sample size I tested was fairly large, over 330,000 runers in the global analysis for 2008 and 2009 and I found that by removing the worst performing tracks the P&L increased significantly in terms of ROI, ie, from 2.7% RoI to 4.2% RoI.

It may be just coincidence that your shorter time frame with your selection criteria parallels the wider time frame with my selection criteria. However, It would be interesting to see how your your figures recalculated if you removed all transactions from the worst performing tracks.

Rgds

I have acted due to poorly peforming tracks (even though this sample size is very small) by reducing the 'target' at them daily.

I don't belive anything under say 70% winners would be profitable , but discounting Monmore (only had 13 bets there) my worst is Newcastle at around 8 out of 10 cats (er , I mean winners) - with that in mind I will still play there as I'm winning 4 of 5 and only need 3 to 'recover' .

If the stats start to get worse over time having tracks 'drop off' the bottom would certainly be an option.

Have put my lays up in advance on the 'Sunday BAGS' topic in the greyhound forum for today.

11:19 t4 2nd 5/2
11:28 t1 3rd 5/2
11:34 t5 WON 7/2
11:43 t1 4th 6/1
11:48 t4 WON 7/2
11:58 t5 5th 6/1
12:04 t5 2nd 9/2
12:13 t6 4th 7/2
12:18 t6 5th 7/1
12:27 t1 4th 3/1

Hi Kwij, im struggling to understand your staking system, can you list what your lay bet would be for each of the above lays? I have listed the SP for each dog you layed this morning (BF would obv be higher), say i had a £500 bank, what would each bet amount be??

many thanks in advance.

http://thedogsofkwijebo.blogspot.com/

CHECK IT OUT TOTGA .

cheers border.

What do you think of the staking plan?

Think the staking in effect is a recipe for disaster, although Kwijibo selections are good so offsets this .
He is proving that it is possible on the dogs , suspect the use of the bot is to reduce the tendency to chase.
Well done Kwij .... keep it up :)

11:19 t4 2nd 4.0
11:28 t1 3rd 4.0
11:34 t5 WON 5.2
11:43 t1 4th 8.0
11:48 t4 WON 5.2
11:58 t5 5th 8.0
12:04 t5 2nd 6.2
12:13 t6 4th 5.2
12:18 t6 5th 9.0
12:27 t1 4th 4.6

Start Bank £1000
1- £2.50 WON
2- £2.50 WON
3- £2.50 Lost @ 5.2 -£10.50
4- (stake to win 40% of loss) £4.20 @ 8.0 (LIAB £29.40) WON £4.20
5- (stake to win 40% of loss) £4.20 @ 5.2 -£10.50
At this point would be -£11.80
next 3 bets win, back in profit.

Im not too sure about this staking system, i suppose if the strike rate is good, which it does seem to be then it looks pretty good, would be a tad worried if i hit 3/4 losers on the 'bounce' though.

WD kwij so far, ou seem to knw your stuff.

- just read the bit about stopping when 5% bank increase in one day, so you would need to get roughly 20 consecutive winning bets???

Yeah about 20 winning bets a day totga :)

Stats from Day 33:

Won 20 from 23 races which is 86.9%

Made a profit of £25.48 to £520.29 which is a 5.1% increase


Stats from Day 1:

Have won 638 races from 739 which is a 86.3% win rate


http://thedogsofkwijebo.blogspot.com/

the staking is probably a bit dodgy:) but the selections are good.i mean it would need to be the day from hell to hit 4 in a row really but it can happen i guess. when he hits a loser the recovery next bet includes the would be profit from the previous one, so he dont have to hit say 20 continious to reach his target.thats the beauty of the bot. i bet thats hard to understand :)

fox - i agree i can go bust if i hit 3 or 4 big priced losers in a row or 4/5 - but i would have to be extremely unlucky not only to hit 4 or 5 from 5 but for them to be bigger prices aswell.

I have tried many staking plans and this is by far my most successful.

It does make sense Borderfox, i understand it alot more now, after reading it once it looked frightening but i suppose, like you say he would need to hit 3,4 or 5 losers on the bounce to lose the bank.

GL Kwij, i will be checking into this thread more often now, all the best and WD today.

he has went bust a few times b4 on the dog forum.

Stats from Day 34:

Won 20 of 24 races

Increased bank by 4.5% to £544.19 (Target for day 34 to be on course for £5,000 by day 100 £379.43)


Stats from Day 1:

Have won 658 from 763 which is a 86.2% win rate


http://thedogsofkwijebo.blogspot.com/

The One That Got Away 12 Oct 17:16

It does make sense Borderfox, i understand it alot more now, after reading it once it looked frightening but i suppose, like you say he would need to hit 3,4 or 5 losers on the bounce to lose the bank.

Kwiji has done really well so far, but he doesn't need to hit 3, 4 or 5 losers on the bounce to lose his bank. He just needs to have a sequence of WLWWLWWLWLWWLWWL or similar and he is stuffed!

Just looking at the todays results in the 1148 race he lost £39.59.

He then tried to recover £17.45 over 3 bets and fortunately he won these 3 bets. If any of these 3 bets had lost then this would likely have been over as he was risking between £80 & £100+ on each of those bets.

Does this look right? Or am I missing something?

I have an excel running a simulation on dogs right now. It took two years of data and is making selections from that.

I've been running it live in simulation since August.

Today, at Hall Green, it hit four losing races in a row

R5 T1: 7/2 W (100%)

R6 T1: 9/4F L (50%)
R6 T6: 9/2 W (50%)

R7 T4: 5/2F L (33.33%)
R7 T5: 11/4 W (33.33%)
R7 T6: 9/2 L (33.33%)

R8 T4: 3/1 L (33.33%)
R8 T5: 7/2 W (33.33%)
R8 T6: 7/2 L (33.33%)

Now I haven't worked out the damage against betfair estimates (I have taken data on odds i.e. 5/2 = 3.5 in betfair then curved it way up (5/1 outwards, depending on the overall of the field can = 9.0 and higher on betfair), but if I was using the staking plan at hand, I would have recovered because the next three races flagged 4 lays, all successful, but the stakes would have been incredible to "recover".

Right now, trying to devise a new approach on "recovery" (which I really feel is chasing) so it goes against the grain of my thinking of once it is gone, it is gone. It keeps my head clear.

My main reason is to post that despite having a filter that has shown 89% (some tracks, 100%) over two years has and can have a streak of four in a row.

percentages represented the spread of risk (i.e. 3 lays, a third each)

Lays this morning pre posted under 'Tuesday BAGS' in greyhound section if anyones interested.

Interesting shapeshifter! rather than laying all under 5/1 and spreading the risk would it not be best laying the top 3 regardless of price?

Hope my 100% pre posted lays helped anyone today ???

B-)

cdh, that was just one four race sample.

I tend to target 1 to 2 and, on occassion, 3. Lots of factors in the decision.

But mathematically, laying the top three in the market will not pay off in the long run or short run for that matter.

Right now, system is built on hitting a target. If the target is hit on the first race, I shut down for the balance of the meeting. If the lay(s) are unsuccessful, then the system kicks in and runs for "x" amount of races unless it encounters X amount in losses, then shuts down with a losing day.

I saw your posting earlier. You might find posting in advance could affect the price rolling up, depending on when your bot is grabbing your bet.

Kwijs, I noticed you posting your bets in advance. You might find that this is rolling your prices up depending on when your bot is taking the price.

certainly not posting every day shape - just when the wind blows in the right direction !

Then I wish you smooth sailing

i had you down as 23 from 24 winning lays,you laid trap4 in the 11..11 at perry barr,according to my results it won at 9/4,apart from that very well done

3 won :)

yes aldric i guess you are right there. i cant figure the maths tho for a more safer approach. maybe a smaller % gain everyday ,and the recovery spread out more like 20% over 5 bets? or is that just making recovery even more difficult?

fox - i tried more races for less % but i found i was in recovery mode for most of the day most of the days .

Stats for day 35:

Won 18 of 18 races

Increased bank by 4.1% to £566.56 (Target for day 35 to be on course for £5,000 by day 100 £394.61)


Stats from Day 1:

Have won 676 of 781 races which is a 86.5% win rate


http://thedogsofkwijebo.blogspot.com/

borderfox has a point regarding speading the risk over more bets such as 5 or 6?
good thread by the way and good luck to all.

cdh,

I posted earlier on this. Have mixed emotions on "recovery". Find that if you get the headspace that once it is gone, it is gone.

Right now I have been testing "recovery" using similar. In my case, I lay for a gain of 2.5% of account on the third race of each meeting (using a combo of form and then track read after two races). Thus I can make a 5% on the morning dogs, another 5% on the afternoon either in horses or dogs.

If the race is successful, I shut down on that meeting

If it is not, then I target to net 2.5 over 3 to 4 races. So a combo of recoup and gain.

Using 3 as example, if I get the three on the meeting, then, again, I shut down. So I can be done by around 12:30 each day on the dogs.

Unless a second losing lay then a combo of lays and trading to hit my target. I'll also walk away and study races later in the morning to find targets rather than consecutive at that point. And, more importantly, will walk away red and lick my wounds rather than chase and open a small gash more.

Thus, on your point of "5 or 6 races", it all comes down to your strike rate and confidence. But I found the longer at the table, the more of a chance of another lay hitting you. Nothing worse than going 4, hitting a loss then going into a sequence of losses.

To me, time is more important. If I am in front of the screen for a few hours, I prefer to be doing research on future events.

Today - done at Newcastle laying in the 1142 (layed two dogs so hit was very minor)

HGRN. 1134 was not successful. I layed in 1148, skipped the 1204 and then layed in the 1218 to get back to evens. Going for the 2.5% gain in the 1232.......targetted trades and lays will be on T2 and T3. Fingers crossed otherwise I end up studying my spreadsheets over lunch.

3...4...1..... :(

so some reading over lunch

morning dogs combined around 3.5% down on the morning.

Even if I called it a day, I won't lose sleep.

Took an extra track to 90%+ win rate today - Welcome to the club Belle Vue !


Stats from Day 36:

Won 23 of 24 races

Increased bank by £31.66 which is 5.5% to £598.22 (Target for day 36 to be on course for £5,000 by day 100 £410.39)


Stats from Day 1:

Have won 699 of 805 races which is a 86.8% win rate


http://thedogsofkwijebo.blogspot.com/

Day 37 I had a winning day (5% ish) but on 6 seperate races (details will be on blog) i was one race away from going bust , and on 3 of those 6 I finished 2nd !

With this in mind rather than lose my £600+ bank I'm gonna call it quits til I re consider my position and adjust my staking.

(This is because i was unhappily sweating far toooo much 2day.)


Yes i have balls but 'tweaking' is now my new best friend !

A great decision Kwij tweak and try again :) Well done ........... discipline :)

i thought with the bot it took the pressure off. just go shopping

freddie....bots only do what we program them to do. So the only thing they do is take the "pressure off" of placing the bet when they are supposed to be plus any conditions, etc.

They do keep you "disciplined" with your game plan which is a plus

One factor with dogs I have found; the weather changes now so alot of approaches used for making selections from May to September change DRASTICALLY. This is based on two years of watching the dogs.

You might want to do a quick simulation on your selections (did you keep the ones AFTER the bot shuts down) and see how your days do with level stake risk.

It might take longer to hit your target but as I posted over a month ago, one bad day can wipe out alot of hard work.

Just add a stop loss, pretty simple solution isn't it?

then u cant recover . kwiji can u post up the last day. i want a look at it.

But if you only hit the stop loss once or twice in a month then its all good.

i'll do this afternoon fox

Had a few weeks off - back for Day 38 tomorrow (prob).

About time that blog was updated :)

welcome back, and good luck :-)

:)

Stats from Day 38:

Won 25 of 27 races

Increased bank by £41.60 to £674.64

Target for Day 38 to be on course for £5,000 on Day 100 is £443.88


Stats from Day 1:

Have won 742 of 855 which is a 86.7% win rate



Revised track stats:

1) Oxford (66 of 70 races) 94.2% win rate
2) Nottingham (44/47) 93.6%
3) Belle Vue (18/20) 90%
4) Sheffield (98/110) 89%
5) Hall Green (75/86) 87.2%
6) Hove (105/121) 86.7%
7) Sunderland (57/66) 86.3%
8) Crayford (60/71) 84.5%
9) Perry Barr (79/95) 83.1%
10)Newcastle (32/39) 82%
11)Romford (54/66) 81.8%
12)Swindon (28/35) 80%
13)Monmore (16/20) 80%
14)Kinsley (4/5) 80%


http://thedogsofkwijebo.blogspot.com/

Well done mate

thanx 'some' .

yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

Stats for Day 39:

Won 16 from 19 races

Increased bank by £29.92 to £704.56

Target for day 39 to be on course for £5,000 by day 100 is £461.64



Stats from Day 1:

Have won 758 from 874 races which is a 86.7% win rate



Revised track stats:

1) Nottingham (54/57 races) 94.7% win rate
2) Oxford (66 of 70) 94.2%
3) Belle Vue (18/20) 90%
4) Sheffield (98/110) 89%
5) Hall Green (75/86) 87.2%
6) Hove (105/121) 86.7%
7) Sunderland (57/66) 86.3%
8) Crayford (60/71) 84.5%
9)Newcastle (32/39) 82%
10)Romford (54/66) 81.8%
11) Perry Barr (85/104) 81.7%
12)Swindon (28/35) 80%
13)Monmore (16/20) 80%
14)Kinsley (4/5) 80%


http://thedogsofkwijebo.blogspot.com/

ttt

gl

wat are yr lays today

GL
:)

1/1 so far today !

1111 at perry barr due off 1113 laying the 2 at 4.3

WD

Stats from Day 1:

Have won 845 of 970 races which is 87.1% win rate


Started with £100
Current bank £750
Withdrawn £258.54

Grand total balance - £1008.54

Revised track stats:

1) Nottingham (63/66 races) 95.4% win rate
2) Oxford (66 of 70) 94.2%
3) Sheffield (113/125) 90.4%
4) Belle Vue (18/20) 90%

5) Hall Green (92/105) 87.6%
6) Hove (105/121) 86.7%
7) Crayford (69/80) 86.2%
8)Swindon (42/49) 85.7%

9) Sunderland (62/73) 84.9%
10) Perry Barr (92/111) 82.8%
11)Newcastle (32/39) 82%
12)Romford (54/66) 81.8%
13)Kinsley (4/5) 80%

14)Monmore (27/36) 75%


http://thedogsofkwijebo.blogspot.com/

So You Say.

???

is the system back up and running?

for the last couple of days , yes freddie - laying for a 0.66% of bank unit stake now before losses instead of 0.25% and collecting and withdrawing every day

go on go on go on
yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

i kinda love yr enthusiasum freddie - ive seen remarks you and others have made on other threads and this a refreashing change !

not too sure what senlac meant this morning tho ???

will u make the 5k by xmas

all being well - aslong as it doesn't go pear shaped - yes indeed !

(lost first races today though :( ! )

What Senlac means is that he has doubts.
I have followed your Blog on your site and there are periods
when there are no entries. How did you go then.?
Your strike rate is not much above the average for random
selections yet you never fall in a hole via recovery.
I have the same bot and know how it is inevitable that the
run of losses will go against you from time to time and you
will lose heavily then. You have not yet reached that point it appears.
Excuse my cynicism as the toll of Age has made me increasingly so.
Post your bets prior to the races and my doubts will be removed.

What Senlac means is that he has doubts.
I have followed your Blog on your site and there are periods
when there are no entries. How did you go then.?

The reason for gaps in consecutive days is that is is a bit of a ball ache having to post and blog daily esp when I'm not finishing laying till mid afternoon and I start work 4 days a week at 6pm.


Your strike rate is not much above the average for random
selections yet you never fall in a hole via recovery.

That's a fair observation , my recovery can generally withstand about 3 in a row , or close together and not many more - if i do about 20 bets a day and my strike rate is say 85% , then i'm losing 3 out of 20 - of those 3 from 20 even if they are consecutive I'll only hit major trouble if they are max odds - for example a £2 lay at an ave of 7/1 would pay out £14 on a loss , if the next race lost at my ave of 7/1 would be a £49 loss , the 3rd race loss would have a liability of about £180 - So if i lost 3 races in a row at my average odds of 8.0 i would lose about £275 and have about a £80 lay on a 4th race so as long as i had originally only staked 0.25% of total bank (for a £2 example it would be a £800 bank) then i would be ok for a 4th bet - but if I'd just lost 3 in a row then then chances are I should get enough winners to level out ???


I have the same bot and know how it is inevitable that the
run of losses will go against you from time to time and you
will lose heavily then. You have not yet reached that point it appears.

So it appears.


Excuse my cynicism as the toll of Age has made me increasingly so.
Post your bets prior to the races and my doubts will be removed.

For the next 7 days starting Thurs 3/12/09 I'll pre post my bets prior to the first bet being made that day on my blog - at the end of day i will then post my results as per normal. This wont happen on all 7 days (prob 4,5 or 6 of them - as per comment above) - I do this only for you Sir (and prob anybody that fancies following my selections i guess?) - This wont become a habit though as it really is a ball ache , and i have no reason to prove myself but it'll be fun to do so !

Well done Kwij. I wish you luck.
I am an unsuccesful punter.alas.
If you are a succesful one I raise my hat to you.

but u are an early riser though !

doing very well, prices on betfair for the dogs are outstanding value,is your strategy laying favs most of the time??? fluctuations in prices are crazy 3mins before off.

mugs - i choose my lays in advance of the race so have no true idea of prices - i lay no higher than 15.0 is my only price criteria.

hope ppl were following - 18 in a row this afternoon so far :)

Well done indeed.

Well kwij I am an early riser and I live in the Antipodes.

Stats for day 43:

Won 32 from 36 races

Won and withdrew £148.12


Stats from Day 1:

Have won 877 from 1,006 races which is a 87.1% win rate

Started with £100
Balance £1,000
Withdrawn £156.66

Grand total £1,156.66


Revised track stats:

1) Nottingham (63/66 races) 95.4% win rate
2) Oxford (66 of 70) 94.2%
3) Belle Vue (18/20) 90%
4) Sheffield (120/134) 89.5%
5) Hall Green (92/105) 87.6%
6) Crayford (77/88) 87.5%
7) Hove (105/121) 86.7%
8) Swindon (42/49) 85.7%
9) Sunderland (70/82) 85.3%
10) Perry Barr (92/111) 82.8%
11) Romford (62/75) 82.6%
12) Newcastle (32/39) 82%
13) Kinsley (4/5) 80%
14) Monmore (27/36) 75%


http://thedogsofkwijebo.blogspot.com/

Any chance of an update Kwij?

Hope all is well.