General Betting
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30 Nov 09
21:13
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Date Joined:
25 Jun 08
I have been away from the forums for a few weeks now looking into a systematical approach to betting/ profit making.
I have just read another thread on the forum and agree with so many points raised.
I have been looking at a type of Martingale system and feel that i have devised a couple of potential profit making systems.
My aim is to commence with a bank of £150 and increase it by 1-3% on average, if i hit an initial loser, then i will martingale to re-coup my losses and also win my percentage increase stake:
ie- £2 lay at 2.0, if loses then next bet is £4 and so on.
I have obviously been trying to find a way of betting at low odds but feel that i have the potential to make it pay at odds between 3.0-5.0, which would give me the chance of having 2 losers.
I have been looking at C/S laying at odds of between 8.0-11.0 which would give me one martingale attempt at winning my money back/ ensure the 'percentage of my bank' profit required. So far i have looked at 31 CS Laying bets in the last 3 weeks and have hit 1 loser, obviously the 2nd losing bet consecutively would be a destroyer.
Just wondering what peoples thoughts are on this?. i realise that Martingale is a bad word amongst forum members but was interested to hear any sensible thoughts.
I have just read another thread on the forum and agree with so many points raised.
I have been looking at a type of Martingale system and feel that i have devised a couple of potential profit making systems.
My aim is to commence with a bank of £150 and increase it by 1-3% on average, if i hit an initial loser, then i will martingale to re-coup my losses and also win my percentage increase stake:
ie- £2 lay at 2.0, if loses then next bet is £4 and so on.
I have obviously been trying to find a way of betting at low odds but feel that i have the potential to make it pay at odds between 3.0-5.0, which would give me the chance of having 2 losers.
I have been looking at C/S laying at odds of between 8.0-11.0 which would give me one martingale attempt at winning my money back/ ensure the 'percentage of my bank' profit required. So far i have looked at 31 CS Laying bets in the last 3 weeks and have hit 1 loser, obviously the 2nd losing bet consecutively would be a destroyer.
Just wondering what peoples thoughts are on this?. i realise that Martingale is a bad word amongst forum members but was interested to hear any sensible thoughts.
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IMO forget that staking method and look towards a system based on the probability of bet occuring and taking account of value in odds and your bank........
The KELLY STAKING CALCULATOR is worth checking out TOTGA........if you are "good" at being as "accurate" as possible on guessing the PROBABILITY of event happening, then this can be used for BACKING or LAYING. I'll post a link shortly GL |
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http://seriousbet.com/calculators/kelly_staking
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Each bet should stand on its own merit.....should only take your available bank into account NOT PREVIOUS LOSSES.
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many thanks DFC, good to hear from you again.
Will check the link out now. |
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I have not used the KSC for football LAY bets.................................only on backs.
I will be using the KSC for football bets on HT/FT market where say like the READING game tonight.....I thought it would be either DRAW/DRAW or DRAW/BLACKPOOL. If you averaged the odds for those 2, then fed the average into KSC with bank available and a PROBABILITY of event happening ( own guess).......with 5 % commission etc.....then it came up approximately £20 total stake. If you then DUTCH the £20 on the two bets, this gave a profit of £38 for either bet succeeding. I would also hedge bet with £3 on 2-0 as HT score too ...in case BLACKPOOL took lead early. As it happened it went to 1-1 by HT..........so then you can either wait and let 2 bets stand for a while and then cover READING winning in match market to win no matter what. The key is GUESSING PROBABILITY accurately enough often enough and getting value in odds on the BACK bet/s. I'm not really interested in LAYING bets..................prefer back bets. GL Jodie |