General Betting
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After another poor day with my football bets, just wondered how many on here simply lay the favourites, in-play (mainly English Premier League) and make a tidy profit on a regular, long-term basis by trading out on ce a profitable position had been reached?
Someone who collects data on this sort of thing will no doubt put me right, but it seems to me that as there are so many variables in football (the incompetence of players, managers and official, etc), routinely laying the in-play fav seems the way to go.
If you had laid today's fav pre-KO or after they had taken the lead, it wiould have paid you to do so in the games at Fulham, Villa and (most profitably) at Man City. City are a layer's passport to riches this season, with seven sucecssive draws, but is the laying favs theory a myth? I ask the question because I felt a mug after my biggest single bet of the day - City to beat Hull - went down despite City taking a lead just before H/T. Obviously, there was a great chance to lay that off for an all-green situation, but I stuck with it to my cost.
I'm not talking about (for example) only laying the top teams at pre-KO stage, but AFTER they have taken a one-goal lead...then trading out for profit after the lesser fancied team has equalised or even gone in front. In many cases the fave will go 1-0 up, be pegged back to 1-1 and then go on to win easily.
Appreciate hearing the thoughts of others think on this...
Someone who collects data on this sort of thing will no doubt put me right, but it seems to me that as there are so many variables in football (the incompetence of players, managers and official, etc), routinely laying the in-play fav seems the way to go.
If you had laid today's fav pre-KO or after they had taken the lead, it wiould have paid you to do so in the games at Fulham, Villa and (most profitably) at Man City. City are a layer's passport to riches this season, with seven sucecssive draws, but is the laying favs theory a myth? I ask the question because I felt a mug after my biggest single bet of the day - City to beat Hull - went down despite City taking a lead just before H/T. Obviously, there was a great chance to lay that off for an all-green situation, but I stuck with it to my cost.
I'm not talking about (for example) only laying the top teams at pre-KO stage, but AFTER they have taken a one-goal lead...then trading out for profit after the lesser fancied team has equalised or even gone in front. In many cases the fave will go 1-0 up, be pegged back to 1-1 and then go on to win easily.
Appreciate hearing the thoughts of others think on this...
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Replies: 7
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From what you say you should try some other angle
tiddlywinks or ludo perhaps Good luck whatever you try |
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If it worked, the price of the favs in the long run would inevitably get bigger, as people realised that there was such a simple way to make money - and it would soon get to the point where the prices were such that there was no longer this easy money to be made.
Sorry to shatter the illusion..... |
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If you think it might work try it. Dont be put off by all the experts on here. Betfair is all about finding your own angle to make profits, if you have an idea go for it. It may not work initially but an idea may lead to something more profitable that you had not previously thought of!!
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Where is the value? If the price on the SP favourite is too long after they have gone ahead, then it will pay you to back them. If the price is too short, then it will pay you to lay them. If the price is correct, then it will pay you to look elsewhere. Football is not the easiest of sports to find an edge in.
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Plechy,
Start gathering your own data. You'll only find an edge by doing some proper research. If football is your thing record everything including the generally available price on here for as many matches as you are interested in. Then when you have enough data start testing your ideas. Don't forget though that times change etc, new ball etc. Nothing stands still. And if you hit on something that nobody else has mentioned on here, keep it to yourself mate! |
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I think you mean Lay The Leader (LTL) much has been written on here about that in the past.
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lay the leader and back other team if you think its good bet, no one can teach how to spot those type bets, got find them yourself.
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