General Betting
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After losing 1,000 points paper bank on last thread......now feel more up to date on how races being run currently ( had not watched much racing last 12 months).....so will have another go, as i know i will need at least 3 banks to use KELLY on roughhly full staking when it come to me using it on horse racing!
Gl with bets today.
BANK 1 lost 1,000 points
ATTEMPT 2
STARTING BANK today 1,000 points
Gl with bets today.
BANK 1 lost 1,000 points
ATTEMPT 2
STARTING BANK today 1,000 points
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Replies: 440
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2.30 Almost tempted by MARGARET'S JOHN for place only ....but leaving race alone ....
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12.45 Alaghiraar
ATTEMPT 2 Bank = 1,000 points Available odds: 5.2 WIN (betfair) My odds: 3 -1 (25%) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 62.03 PLACE ONLY Only doing the place only bet , as odds in win market are too low........it might well win.....but for the "risk2 better on place only. |
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place odds 1.92
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1.05 Ochilview Warrior
ATTEMPT 2 Bank = 937.97 points Available odds: 8.4 WIN (betfair) My odds: 5 -1 (16.67%) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 45.18 PLACE ONLY at 2.80 |
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1.10 Takween
ATTEMPT 2 Bank = 892.79 points Available odds:21 (betfair) My odds: 8 -1 (11.11 %) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 57.42 Will split this 25 % WIN 16.33 points and 75 % place 41.09 points at 3.3 av odds |
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Best of luck DFC dont forget though, Saturday racing can be a punters gravyard.
Jon |
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DFC, would you mind if I post up a few selections of my own on your thread? 1000 point bank and see how it goes??
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Thanks JON .....at least it would keep wonby 10 and lee h2 "happy" !!!!!!
1.20 French Opera ATTEMPT 2 Bank = 892.79 points Available odds:2.5 (betfair) My odds:1 -1 (50%) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 124.57 points WIN As it is a BEGINNER'S chase , will also lay it to cover half the stakes ie to gain 63 points at 1.56 odds |
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Mudflaps - as long as you are using KELLY calculator ...no probs
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Not a fan of Kelly myself, will leave you to it.
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Trust you appreciate that thread is about trying to use calculator .....AND trying to get horses WINNING or PLACING ....so far c ra p start !!!!
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Of course and I have started my own little racing thread to see how I get on
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1.40 Silver Rime
ATTEMPT 2 Bank = 892.79 points Available odds:4.9 (betfair) My odds:2 -1 (33.33%) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 93.93 points Only doing 50% STAKES on this one .... to WIN |
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Ascot 1.20
1st 5 French Opera 5-4 F 2nd 3 Edgeover 33-1 STAKE BACK on FRENCH opera winning + 124.57 points WIN PROFIT 1.5 X 124.57 - 5 % + 177.51 BANK after losing place lay on FO BF 612.52 before 1.40 race ---------- BANK before 1.40 race 914.60 points |
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1.40 now reads ....I made mistake when posted first !!!
1.40 Silver Rime BANK was 612.52 before FRENCH OPERA win Available odds:4.9 (betfair) My odds:2 -1 (33.33%) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 93.93 points Only doing 50% STAKES on this one .... to WIN |
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BANK was 914.60 after FRENCH OPERA win
less stake 1.40 ( 46.92 ) points ----------------------------- BANK before 1.4 867.68 |
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1.45 race is not clear as torn between 2 horses RORY BOY and fav......so leaving as NOVICE race.
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1.50 race is very open ...so leaving ......would need to spend at least 30 mins on ...so not prepared to do so!
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2.05 Infiraad
BANK ATTEMPT 2 : 867.68 points Available odds:5.5 (betfair) My odds:3 -1 (25%) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 64.70 ....split EW |
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PLACE odds 2.2
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2.25 Kristallo
BANK ATTEMPT 2 : 802.98 points before 2.05 race Available odds:42 (betfair) My odds:16 -1 (6.25 %) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 33.35 points SPLI WIN 16.63 points and 16. 62 points SFC with fav YOURE THE TOP to beat KRISTALLO |
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DFC, Using Kelly, shouldn't you be increasing your stakes when a price drifts?
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Infiraad
now at 9.2 w/ 2.98 place .mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm |
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Muqbil
So far ignoring market moves M.......probably best at present, as shape of this race is dodgy!!!! |
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Market indicated fav would win .....so wd market......
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Probably with volatility of markets with horse racing it is not a sensible thing to follow the pack.
Most of my selections SHORTEN in odds..........so only now and then is this likely to arise ....the theory is to increase stakes when price is higher ......and IF I liked race i might well have done .....but was not a strong fancy ...and too many arab owned horses controlling the race as well put me off THIS TIME!!!!!! :D |
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KRISTALLO 34 now in odds for example ...............
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I suspect i could just make initial selection and the get free bets .......but profits would be lower......though losses would also be lower .....so might adapt this into this or another thread .....if I got time.
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2.35 trainer with 2 horses in race ...not touching this one!
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2.45 Hazelrigg
BANK ATTEMPT 2 : 769.63 points before 2.25 race Available odds: 10 (betfair) My odds:6-1 (14.29 %) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 32.83 points SPLIT EW pl odds 3.15 |
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2.55 Deep Purple
BANK ATTEMPT 2 :736.90 points before next race Available odds: 4.9 (betfair) My odds:2-1 (33.33%) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 113.01 SPLIT 57 points WIN 28 points SFC with Tamarinbleu beating it 28 points SFC with Church Island beating it |
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3.00 Hibiki
BANK ATTEMPT 2 :736.90 points before next race Available odds: 7 (betfair) My odds:4-1 (20%) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 37.22 WIN |
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DEEP PURPLE now 6.2
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Due to posting EARLY on here .....lost out on increased odds on DEEP PURPLE ...6.2 against 4.9...
Just the cost of running this thread.....difference being 72 points profit ...oh well!!! Wetherby 2.55 1st 2 Deep Purple 9-2 2nd 5 Tamarinbleu (FR) 2-1 F So BANK was 586.68 points STAKE BACK on WIn 57.00 WIN profit 3.9 x 57 - 5% 211.18 ---------------- BANK 854.86 before next race |
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3.20 Misphire
BANK ATTEMPT 2 :854.86 points before next race Available odds: 18.50 (betfair) My odds: 8-1 (11.11 %) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 49.27 ...say 50 SPLIT 25 EW place odds 5.5 |
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3.25 too open ...no selection
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3.35 LORD HENRY
ATTEMPT 2 Bank = 804.86 points Available odds: 7 WIN (betfair) My odds: 5 -1 (16.67%) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 16.51 WIN |
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3.55 On The Loose
ATTEMPT 2 Bank = 788.35 points Available odds: 13.5 WIN (betfair) at time I posted as nap in comp......perhaps a dodgy one? My odds: 8 -1 (11.11%) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 28.57 EW .....place odds 3.85 |
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4.00 SMUGGLER'S BAY
ATTEMPT 2 Bank = 731.21oints Available odds: 12 WIN (betfair) My odds:5-1 (16.67%) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 63.58 split EW ...pl odds 3.75 |