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the man
11 Sep 08 00:41
Joined:
Date Joined: 10 Sep 00
| Topic/replies: 468 | Blogger: the man's blog
I am pre-off market maker who lays odds before the off

In a typical year I might earn £600Kgross and pay £300K in commission

I'm at 2% so that means I have had £15 million winning bets but also lost £14.4million,

If the average person who matches my bets is @4% then the £14.4million would have gained Betfair a further £576K in commission.

So i've won £300K net and Betfair have profitted to the tune of £876K

In contrast another £600K winner may have only paid 10% in commission (£60K) and be at 2.5%

He would have won £2.4million and lost £1.86million

The people matching his losers@4% would have gained Betfair £74.4K

So the winner would have won £540Knet and Betfair gained £134.4K

obviously it's clear to see who would be targetted and would they care if they left?

Betfair is company that want to grow. If they hadn't grown at the rate they have then it's fair to say not many who make their money from gambling would be able to.
The number of new accounts has probably started to dry up to a degree and in order for growth to continue they have decided to target those who take money out of their coffers and and they gain little from. As others has said it's really only the losers that add to Betfair's profits.
I agree it's a PR disaster and the money they may gain from this might not be worth all the bad publicity and the emergence of a serious rival but that's the gamble they've taken.
The alternative is that they just chug along as a £50million profit a year company and never reach the profit heights of the big 3.
Personally I'd be quite happy for them to do that but I suspect that one of Betfair's long term goals is profit growth. Sometimes, however, you can get too many boffins in the boardroom who aren't in touch with the real world.
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Report nairda September 11, 2008 12:59 AM BST
your next :)
Report SQUASH September 11, 2008 12:59 AM BST
the man

what markets you pricing up then pre off ?
Report CrazySnake September 11, 2008 2:59 AM BST
Every company's long term concern should be profit growth.

I had an old MD (when I had a regular job) who would expect to see projections always moving up. The reality of markets and economies is that sometimes prevailing market conditions don't lend favourably to increased profits and we have to tread water for a time. And yet, the "boffins" continue to post ever increasing profit projections and then have to come up with creative ways to make sure they happen.
This would seem to be just another in an impending long line of attempts to ensure the increasing projection seeking MD will continue to remain appeased...

CS
Report Compound Magic September 11, 2008 4:29 AM BST
The bottom line is that you can still win just as much here as ever.
Before the premium charge arrived not many even considered their
true commission %. They thought of only 5%, or less if on discount.
If you are really good at this game your true % may be 7 to 10%
All you have to do is get your true commission up to 20% or over to
avoid the premium charge. If you are good enough to make a consistant
profit it is not to hard to add some losers into the mix without actually
losing. If you monitor your true commission and it is dropping below 20%
commission and implied commission, place some additional bets in other markets, like even chances where half the bets lose and half win. Try to
get the half that win to win to just cover the costs of the two halves. This
will bump up the true commission paid with no cost to you.
That's one way.
I have flagged other ways which I am working on.
Report CrazySnake September 11, 2008 4:46 AM BST
Shhhhhh! You are tapping the glass on my aquarium.
Report lippy September 11, 2008 4:52 AM BST
Trouble is most traders are cautious by nature , i break into a rash if i bet 50 pounds.

A trader who makes 500 a week regularly would have to be placing some very large even money bets.
And we all know they always lose !! just like they do when betfair crashes
Report Compound Magic September 11, 2008 5:00 AM BST
Lippy.
I am in Australia and there really is no alternative at present to Betfair
so have to make some adjustments. That was one scenario. Think about
it a bit and some other obvious ones will come to you.
Good luck to you in kiwi land
Report lippy September 11, 2008 5:02 AM BST
I kniow , i looked at beddak , they have no aussie racing or anything , i will be sticking it out
Report Compound Magic September 11, 2008 5:07 AM BST
I was not thinking along the lines of changing camp.
Other alternatives are on here. (mostly)
Report mikey b September 11, 2008 5:11 AM BST
lippy, i make consistently over £2000 a week, somtime on small odds (evens) sometime large (15/1). i am no loser. i am not (yet) liable for the new charge. however i still have the interests of betfair and everyone invloved here (small/large) & (winner/loser)...
Report mikey b September 11, 2008 5:16 AM BST
i also know when somone has made a big mistake/error, and i'm not afriad of telling them so.
Report mikey b September 11, 2008 5:24 AM BST
ever told a player they can take that move back?
Report sjp September 11, 2008 6:53 AM BST
lippy 11 Sep 05:52
Trouble is most traders are cautious by nature , i break into a rash if i bet 50 pounds.


With respect, that is why you are not wanted (by Betfair and it's users).
Report the man September 11, 2008 7:34 AM BST
the man

what markets you pricing up then pre off ?


Virtually all of them with the except of financials, combat sports, winter sports and specials
Report DStyle September 11, 2008 7:49 AM BST
pelota?
Report DStyle September 11, 2008 7:49 AM BST
and yachting?
Report the man September 11, 2008 7:51 AM BST
sorry just looked at todays menu and they weren't there but I confess I neglect pelota and yachting too
Report DStyle September 11, 2008 7:57 AM BST
good. i will be looking to corner these markets in the near future then.
Report Bayes. September 11, 2008 8:23 AM BST
the man. You make some fair points but this is a free market environment. I too market make pre-off and my overall margin there is not threatened. I also bet in running, where it is easy to lock in profit. I, along with everyone else who wins in these markets, will seek to move elsewhere. What Betfair are doing is differentiating between different types of gambler. The ones who will be better off elsewhere will end up elsewhere.
Report Alex the old wrinkled retainer November 22, 2009 8:53 PM GMT
bump
Report Moon Light November 22, 2009 9:12 PM GMT
I think Betfair have just succumbed to the lust for gold.
Report JPG November 22, 2009 10:14 PM GMT
I appreciate that this thread has been bumped so he might not see this but...

A question for the OP:

Arent you they guy who is one of four people doing the leg work on this?

Not knocking you at all, but market making on so many events is definitely time intensive even with technology/software. Arent you "one of the four?"
Report the man November 22, 2009 10:22 PM GMT
This thread is over 14months old , I think when the premium charge was first introduced, but yes I am part of a 4 man team and despite using software its very much a full time occupation
Report Alex the old wrinkled retainer November 22, 2009 10:39 PM GMT
the man


I bumped this because you got a mention on another fred. I can see what you are doing but it why you posted is beyond me.
Report JPG November 23, 2009 3:53 AM GMT
the man 22 Nov 23:22

This thread is over 14months old , I think when the premium charge was first introduced, but yes I am part of a 4 man team and despite using software its very much a full time occupation


Ah, so my memory served me well here.

I assume its your bot I work against from time to time in the NBA moneyline markets?
Report the man November 23, 2009 10:08 AM GMT
Alex, I can't remember what motivated me to write it, probably wouldn't now. Think I was just highlighting the value of different styles to Betfair and why one group had been targetted. Think you've just got to got on with it if you have been hit, though if I was targetted I'd consider moving and be able to provide genuine liquidity.

JPG, I do have money in the NBA markets but once I've priced up the event it just sits there waiting to be taken, I don't move my prices.
Report Knight Rider November 23, 2009 2:11 PM GMT
I agree that BF needs to do something about these customers draining the system, but the PC is a silly simplistic way to deal with it. A 20% charge isn't going to stop the problem of new customers being raped on markets they don't understand and never coming back; it just means BF get a slightly higher cut of the lost money.

What they should be addressing is why are these people losing all their money in the first place? Why are certain customers having very few losing bets? Is it worthwhile continuing with IR Horses in its current format when people are prepared to pay £500 a day to rent out suites at Horse tracks just so they can use fast pics to mug unsuspecting home punters?

And I'm not talking about moral/immoral here, I just mean what's best for BF as a company.
Report Feck N. Eejit November 23, 2009 2:35 PM GMT
Spot on Knight Rider. IMO bf are unfortunately not looking beyond the float though.
Report Eldrick November 23, 2009 2:55 PM GMT
KR, totally agree

I have never believed betfair's explanation for PC being all about putting the brakes on those draining money out the system too quickly. They figured the people making plenty on here would carry on betting here if you squeezed them for way more, and in most cases they were right. They are still taking just as much off the losers, but bf now get to pocket some of it for themselves

The idea that PC is enough deterrent to winners to stop the losing accounts busting themselves just as quickly is laughable, they are still betting against all the sharpest minds bar a tiny handful who left

So are betfair actually using the extra funds from PC to recruit more accounts to feed the winners? That's what they claimed it was for, so if we wanted to demand they hold their side of the bargain up they should show us the increased marketing spend since Nov 08 and the resultant increase in new clients (which should be better than previous years' new client recruitment) - otherwise they are basically charging us PC for something that they never provided?

But of course it's laughable that betfair would actually give that information to us.

In my view they are just sticking in their pocket and offering nothing to us that they didn't before
Report Moon Light November 23, 2009 3:31 PM GMT
Betfair Customer Services 23 Nov 11:06
Because we know that in-play betting is one of the most popular aspects of our football offering, we are looking to offer more opportunities to bet in-play.

Therefore, starting on Saturday December 5, we will be running a trial offering UNMANAGED in-play betting on the Match Odds markets of all untelevised matches in The Championship and selected matches in Serie B (the Serie B games will be confirmed in the Betfair Forum at least five days in advance).

The Match Odds markets for these games will not be suspended for goals, penalties, red cards or at any other time. The bet delay for in-play bets on these games will be eight seconds.

We will provide confirmation that this trial is taking place nearer to the event. In the meantime, if you have any comments, please e-mail them to bets@betfair.com.


Wonderful stuff for the hooverers!
Report lippy November 23, 2009 4:08 PM GMT
If people are betting 8 seconds behind then they deserve all they get
Report lippy November 23, 2009 4:10 PM GMT
They know the conditions , who , sitting in the UK would be stupid enough to trade on anj italian second division match with no suspends?
Report Feck N. Eejit November 23, 2009 4:15 PM GMT
The world is full of stupid people, it doesn't follow they deserve to be ripped off. I suppose you think rip-off tipsing lines are a fair cop lippy and roofers ripping pensioners off for their life savings are wealth creators.
Report beetle November 23, 2009 4:34 PM GMT
Betfair is or was a good thing (depending on your view) and touches millions of people. Punters, Traders, Betfair Staff, Owners, Players, Breeders, Bookies, People on Minimum wage, Millionaires etc etc.

But the whole reason for this debate is because a miniscule proportion of the the Betfair people world - namely those who stand to gain most from increased profits, think they dont have enough money already.

Is there ever a point where someone thinks they have enough or is it human nature to screw everyone else.

Someone made the point about snr bf people being too detatched from what customers think and feel. Thats spot on, but it also assumes that they care.

Power corrupts, Money corrupts. Thats's why we have revolutions.

And there lies the crux of the problem. These people feel they have enough time to get away with it. Or should I say... they know how much time they have left befor the shutters come down.
Report lippy November 23, 2009 4:46 PM GMT
Their only motive is to increase the bottom lineto make the company look more attractive to potential buyers.

Feck is right in that they are no longer concerning themselves with the long term health of the exchange. They just looking to maximise its short term value
Report beetle November 23, 2009 4:51 PM GMT
and ... our legal system supports and protects the people doing it do you
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