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Carsten19
15 Nov 09 21:40
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Date Joined: 04 Apr 06
| Topic/replies: 5,030 | Blogger: Carsten19's blog
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Report Rictus1 November 15, 2009 9:41 PM GMT
Thought you did this ft and were 60k up?
Report Carsten19 November 15, 2009 9:41 PM GMT
on the very long run that is
Report Rictus1 November 15, 2009 9:42 PM GMT
hows you last 7 days?
Report Carsten19 November 15, 2009 9:42 PM GMT
**ed it up big time thats hows my last days
Report stevies5_mufc November 15, 2009 9:50 PM GMT
there is people who can make a profit on here, im just not 1 of them in the long run :(
Report sweetchildofmine November 15, 2009 9:52 PM GMT
carsten didnt you quit your job and go pro with 30 euros and turned it into 70k in 30 days
Report Carsten19 November 15, 2009 10:04 PM GMT
crap
Report u25k November 16, 2009 12:09 AM GMT
I am under pressure while betting and almost getting broken as unable to handle pressure. Stats says I am good in betting long term but still due to lack of discipline in staking in individual bets I struggle to handle the emotions of loss.

This year I made 100k plus but still it is very hard work. It takes just few bets to lose few thousands and if you chasing you may lose quickly big amounts. It is not possible for me to stake disciplined because of the way I bet. When I see value I jump with all money. One thing that changed over years is my punting and trading skills. My punting skills are better than before but my trading skills and patience to trade is going down the hill.
Report McChicken_Sandwich November 16, 2009 12:15 AM GMT
lol u25k loves publicly patting himself on the back
Report u25k November 16, 2009 12:20 AM GMT
honest evaluation of myself not bragging.
Report Video_Lounge November 16, 2009 12:24 AM GMT
since I joined on 04/11/09

American Football: -£25.18 | Basketball: £49.63 | Boxing: £32.15 | Cricket: £1.83 | Football: £22.98 | Golf: -£25.59 | Horse Racing: £103.08 | Rugby League: -£2.68 | Special Bets: £9.50 | Tennis: -£12.45 Total P&L: £153.27
Report Video_Lounge November 16, 2009 12:24 AM GMT
^^small fry i know^^ :)
Report 88 November 16, 2009 12:52 AM GMT
beginners luck.
Report Amanda Hugnkiss November 16, 2009 7:36 AM GMT
Nick Luck.
Report freddiewilliams November 16, 2009 2:12 PM GMT
i cant loose on here
Report kenilworth November 16, 2009 3:07 PM GMT
freddie, you can't spell either.
Report Hopeless bettor November 16, 2009 3:08 PM GMT
3 months :

Horse Racing: £31.66 | Soccer: -£12.96 | Tennis: -£5.65 Total P&L: £13.05

Proof you can win in the long term and live a life of luxury ;-)
Report no moves November 16, 2009 3:19 PM GMT
So its its no more spam for you hopeless bettor from now on its going to be corn beef all the way.
Report I.quit.my.job November 16, 2009 3:29 PM GMT
We'l meet again
Don't know where
Don't know when
But I know we'l meet again
Some sunny day
Report thetitan November 16, 2009 4:07 PM GMT
show us your P/L carsten? ?:|
Report takethestand November 16, 2009 5:43 PM GMT
American Football: £1.25 | Boxing: £3.14 | Cricket: £229.67 | Financial Bets: £7.57 | Golf: £1.90 | Horse Racing: £33.25 | Motor Sport: £1.14 | Rugby League: £15.29 | Rugby Union: -£43.15 | Snooker: £0.53 | Soccer: -£207.26 | Special Bets: £3.89 | Tennis: -£65.98 Total P&L: -£18.76

last three months

soccer and tennis my best sports............honest.
Report Howling November 16, 2009 6:00 PM GMT
nobody looses on betfair FACT
Report duncan idaho November 16, 2009 6:10 PM GMT
you've got Snooker by the balls, takethestand ;)
Report come on you irons November 16, 2009 9:07 PM GMT
Well. in the last 3 days, I have nearly tripled my bank, which now stands at over £7.
Report Howling November 16, 2009 9:16 PM GMT
^ you my sir are in the top 0.5 percent of all betfairians congrats
Report JPG November 17, 2009 12:37 AM GMT
Howling 16 Nov 22:16

^ you my sir are in the top 0.5 percent of all betfairians congrats


That stat is some years old and even then, I think it was 2% that are in profit. The 0.5% was 15k+.
Report Eddie the eagle November 17, 2009 9:44 AM GMT
JPG , you've got the numbers wrong.
I would be very surprised if not at least 10 % of active customers on here are winning accounts and by active I mean those who have at least one bet a week on average.
Report ZEALOT November 17, 2009 1:25 PM GMT
you have no idea how to gamble
Report Moon Light November 17, 2009 2:30 PM GMT
Young Mr Davies said there were no winning accounts who were resident in Britain. :)
Report JPG November 17, 2009 2:46 PM GMT
Eddie the eagle 17 Nov 10:44

JPG , you've got the numbers wrong.
I would be very surprised if not at least 10 % of active customers on here are winning accounts and by active I mean those who have at least one bet a week on average.


The strange thing is, my own instinct would put the figure in the 10-15% bracket as well (in the terms youve expressed) but I was trying to remember the (old) figures that BF were quoted. Im still fairly confident that the 0.5% was 15k+ though. :)

Of course, NONE of these are located in the UK either! ;)
Report Moon Light November 17, 2009 2:55 PM GMT
I'd be surprised if it was as high as 10%.
The 5% commission is a huge hurdle for the small punter.
Report TheSnapper November 18, 2009 8:19 AM GMT
Aarrghh! Zealot be correct. ye have to understand more 'bout what ye be doin' 'n th' bigger picture. Stop gamblin', scurvy dog! Start makin' doubloons!
Report frames November 18, 2009 8:36 AM GMT
JPG ,the figure they threw at us a few years back was 0.71% win 15k+.
Report Eddie the eagle November 18, 2009 10:28 AM GMT
And I think their definition of an active account was someone who had placed at least one bet in the last 12 months.
I certainly wouldn't call someone placing one or two bets during a year an active customer !
Report Moon Light November 18, 2009 10:28 AM GMT
I suspect the new regime are too crafty to give out this sort of info.
Report Eddie the eagle November 18, 2009 10:29 AM GMT
ML , they never gave this of free will. I think they they were asked about this in some kind of tax hearing.
Report Terry 'The Bull' Jenkins November 18, 2009 11:20 AM GMT
The majority of people on here are the likes who play FBOTs, so it's no surprise they want to drive the educated away and keep the mongrels about. It is a shame that they introduced the charge as soon as they had raised the barriers to entry to the exchange industry to such heights that they undoubtedly had an almost untouchable monopoly on it.
Report The Investor November 18, 2009 11:28 AM GMT
JPG 17 Nov 15:46
Eddie the eagle 17 Nov 10:44

JPG , you've got the numbers wrong.
I would be very surprised if not at least 10 % of active customers on here are winning accounts and by active I mean those who have at least one bet a week on average.

The strange thing is, my own instinct would put the figure in the 10-15% bracket as well (in the terms youve expressed) but I was trying to remember the (old) figures that BF were quoted. Im still fairly confident that the 0.5% was 15k+ though. :)

Of course, NONE of these are located in the UK either! ;)


If you count having just one bet in the last 12 months as an active account (as betfair do), then the figure would be around 25%. Based on the statement that 0.5% of customers pay PC and 2% of winning customers pay PC.
Report The Investor November 18, 2009 11:30 AM GMT
JPG,

I've heard that 0.5% make £15k+ a few times, never seen where that originally appeared though, some audit I heard?

I would be interested in seeing that, and also to see what the figure would be today.
Report The Investor November 18, 2009 11:32 AM GMT
JPG 17 Nov 15:46
[...]

Of course, NONE of these are located in the UK either! ;)


Was that Evening Standard article thread from last month pulled? Can't find it anymore.
Report buzzer November 18, 2009 11:35 AM GMT
yes it was the evening standard article and it isn't on the net now, not as i can see anyway, a rather strange way of attempting to promote the site. 'We offer 20% better odds but still nobody can win' :)
Report The Investor November 18, 2009 11:40 AM GMT
buzzer,

I don't think it ever was on the net, due to it being in the 'spread betting & sophisticated investing' pull out.

There was a thread on the article last month, that seems to have been pulled??

Here's the article though:

http://i37.tinypic.com/t50qom.jpg
Report Eddie the eagle November 18, 2009 11:44 AM GMT
The Investor : http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/jt200304/jtselect/jtgamb/63/4012215.htm
Report The Investor November 18, 2009 11:48 AM GMT
Thank you Eddie,

I will assume Mr Davies' quotes are more accurate in this article than in the Evening Standard one :D
Report Eddie the eagle November 18, 2009 11:51 AM GMT
Yes , but bear in mind that he says somewhere that some of these 0.71 % are bookmakers and some come from abroad.
Report The Investor November 18, 2009 12:12 PM GMT
I would be very surprised if the % making £15k+ wasn't much higher now. 2-3% at least, I would have thought.
Report Eddie the eagle November 18, 2009 12:17 PM GMT
Would that be before or after PC are taken ?
Report The Investor November 18, 2009 12:32 PM GMT
after PC
Report The Investor November 18, 2009 12:33 PM GMT
Simply because there are more customers now. Those at the very top will be creaming hundreds of thousands, maybe even millions?
Report Moon Light November 18, 2009 3:14 PM GMT
Here's an extract from the Parliamentary publication:
[i]The other thing with any form of gambling
Report davescrazy November 18, 2009 3:25 PM GMT
my last 3 months , if i can win on here any feka can !!!!




American Football: £48.97 | Baseball: -£0.01 | Boxing: £3.35 | Cricket: £7.82 | Darts: £7.95 | Football: -£52.04 | Golf: £0.47 | Horse Racing: £582.46 | Rugby League: -£7.54 | Rugby Union: £6.76 | Snooker: £23.49 | Special Bets: £0.07 | Tennis: £4.97 Total P&L: £626.72
Report duncan idaho November 18, 2009 3:37 PM GMT
If it hadn't been for Baseball, davescrazy, you'd be on easy street!
Report [x] These checkboxes suck November 18, 2009 3:41 PM GMT
done your brains on Baseball imo
Report The Investor November 18, 2009 3:50 PM GMT
Moon Light 18 Nov 16:14

[...]

The experiments with random number generators perform by Sandown and myself suggest that random chance plays a large role in profitability with data samples of less than 1000 bets.


There are a number of interesting experiments you can do like this. One that I really liked was to take the percentage gain/loss of each active day since January 2007. If there are 500 days, pick 500 of the days at random to see what your PL could have looked like. Take into account deposits and withdrawals too.

The less volatility there is in your PL the more each randomly generated set of results will be alike.
Report The Investor November 18, 2009 3:56 PM GMT
You can also use this to find out how much luck was involved if you have achieved positive results. In my case, every iteration gives a positive result (I've done hundreds). However the level of profit can vary substantially (the lowest result being less than half of the highest).

So let's say someone has made £100k, doing this kind of test a few hundred times and coming up with results ranging from £50k to £110k, it means that they did have a positive expectancy, but they were lucky to make as much as they did.

If there are big losses or profits at the extreme end, it means the range could be -300k to 200k
Report Beat The OverRound November 18, 2009 4:00 PM GMT
For ever thousand customers losing, one player is winning massive amounts.
1% of customers win very little or lose very little.
The rest are doing their wages and loans every week.

Fact.
Report OhWhenTheSpurs November 18, 2009 4:14 PM GMT
Last 3 months:
Basketball: -£962.44 | Cricket: £5.08 | Greyhound Racing: -£3.56 | Horse Racing: -£227.68 | Snooker: -£126.60 | Soccer: £2,568.80 | Special Bets: £7.52 | Tennis: £208.18 Total P&L: £1,469.30
Report davescrazy November 18, 2009 4:49 PM GMT
[x] These checkboxes suck 18 Nov 16:41


done your brains on Baseball imo

i cant even remember putting a bet on any baseball game , ever !!!! strange
Report JPG November 18, 2009 5:02 PM GMT
The Investor 18 Nov 12:30

JPG,

I've heard that 0.5% make £15k+ a few times, never seen where that originally appeared though, some audit I heard?

I would be interested in seeing that, and also to see what the figure would be today.


Investor,

I must admit, I dont have any concrete evidence for this, just that Im repeating a certain amount of rumour here thats probably got a lot of truth in it (or at least at the time.)

I could be wrong on this but I think it has something to do with an investigation into the exchange model when the fixed-odds firms were saying that customers here would each need a permit etc to lay and so on. This is going back some years when it was a very new environment for everybody.

The poster "Frames" on this thread mentioned the 0.71% making 15k+. Im not 100% but that specific figure definitely sounds familar. As for figures now, havent heard anything from BF (other then an employee once told me how much standard commision they make on racing and non-racing markets when looking at the matched volume figure.)

Part of the "problem" of all this is the different contexts that it can be applied and viewed from, especially as the dynamic of "active customers" is crucial.
Report The Investor November 18, 2009 5:06 PM GMT
Thanks JPG,

Actually Eddie the eagle posted a link showing it:



Eddie the eagle 18 Nov 12:44
The Investor : http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/jt200304/jtselect/jtgamb/63/4012215.htm
Report The Investor November 18, 2009 5:08 PM GMT
I believe Betfair view anyone that has bet at least once in the last 12 months as active.
Report JPG November 18, 2009 5:12 PM GMT
The Investor 18 Nov 18:08

I believe Betfair view anyone that has bet at least once in the last 12 months as active.


I asked BF for their definition of this on the first forum chat they did after the PC introduction.

Their answer was what youve put or in whatever timeframe/context that their comment is being made in.

For example, if they say "we've had 200k active customers this month" then obviously thats what they mean. But when they say it generally, its exactly how you've put it.
Report FulhamFan November 18, 2009 5:25 PM GMT
Boxing: -£2.00 | Darts: £38.24 | Football: £228.81 | Horse Racing: -£11.00 | Mixed Martial Arts: £21.99 | Tennis: £44.55 Total P&L: £320.59




Started with 50 pound bank. Been here a month. Not tooo bad eh?
Report Okuma November 18, 2009 5:31 PM GMT
I think when they say active customers they include everyone not just exchange users. I remember reading in the 2009 report that nearly 90% of active customers have used the exchange.
Report CaliforniaHereWeCome. November 19, 2009 8:40 AM GMT
http://www.juicestorm.com/betfairgen/


cmon carsten do illuminate us with another great P&L !!!
Report celticlad November 20, 2009 11:54 AM GMT
Last 30 days


Boxing: -£24.74 | Football: £2,090.87 | Horse Racing: -£12.72 Total P&L: £2,053.41
Report Coachbuster November 20, 2009 12:06 PM GMT
The Investor 18 Nov 13:33
Simply because there are more customers now. Those at the very top will be creaming hundreds of thousands, maybe even millions?

____________

Investor, would that be possible though ,as surely the sharpest minds cancel each other out ,no one would therefore assume a dominant position ?
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