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haynesey89
10 Nov 09 09:45
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Date Joined: 05 Jul 08
| Topic/replies: 4 | Blogger: haynesey89's blog
Hi,

I am trying to come up with a profitable football betting system, and wondered how I could test if this is profitable?

I'd ideally like to go through past games to test this, but I can't seem to find the betfair odds during previous games..

Any ideas?
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Report Rocket to the FACE November 10, 2009 9:56 AM GMT
Why use past games and not future games?
Report aye robot November 10, 2009 9:58 AM GMT
Fracsoft gives you full details of all prices for events both pre off an in play. In theory it's brilliant but in practice their software is terrible so it's a bit of a pain. It's still useful though.
Report haynesey89 November 10, 2009 9:59 AM GMT
It would save a lot of time.

I'm relying on "in game" betting.

If I could test this on say, Octobers "In Play" markets. I could see if my ideas have potential..
Report aye robot November 10, 2009 12:52 PM GMT
It's probably work buying a couple of hunderd matches- just to see how everything fits together. It will cost you a bit of money but it's cheaper than losing bets.

Your other option is to reccord odds using Gruss, but you can ony every gather so much data and it will take a while to do. The good thing about fracsoft is that you can get a whole season's worth of price information immediately and once you've bought the market you can examine it from any number of angles.

You may well find that what you're thinking of doesn't work, but the process of researching it gives you other ideas- that's certaily my experience.
Report Coachbuster November 10, 2009 12:56 PM GMT
No chatname specified 10 Nov 10:59
It would save a lot of time.

____________________

if youre trying to fast track your way to succesful gambling then it wont work .

word of warning ...you need to look at odds while theyre being played ,historic odds can be very misleading
unless you are betting pre match of course
Report sevey November 10, 2009 1:03 PM GMT
Systems the good man who said i have not failed
i have just found10.000 ways that wont work g/luck
Report haynesey89 November 10, 2009 1:45 PM GMT
Thanks,

Will probably just use matches from now on and test on paper in a hundred or so matches. See what results I have after that.
Report imhere November 10, 2009 2:35 PM GMT
in game betting on football is usually a pretty good system...for example last night i was guareteed a profit as i had originally put a bet on Birmingham to win at 18/1 and the draw at 6/1 and then running in play Liverpool went out to 4/1 at the start of the second half which i also bet on guarentin me a profit overall
Report know all November 10, 2009 3:13 PM GMT
only one way to see if a system works and thats to put real money on it, you will find out quickly if it works
Report Do wah Diddy November 10, 2009 3:20 PM GMT
I LAUGHED AT ALL THESE PAPER TRADERS ,I USED REAL MONEY TO TEST MY SYSTEMS AND IM SKINT,YOU PAPER TRADE LIKE THEM ,
Report kenilworth November 10, 2009 3:31 PM GMT
imhere, things went for you last evening, and chances when Liverpool went 1-0 up I guess B'ham / draw prices went a lot bigger than the prices you took, also it was well into the second half before Liverpool touched 4/1. At half time Liverpool were 2.66 as that was when I got involved.
Report i love md300 November 10, 2009 3:45 PM GMT
I generally assign 15k to a system, I find it less hassle than paper trading with decent staking I see if it works, and give it a good run, if it does in 15k then I assume its **, and look for something else. I am sure you could do it with less, but most of my systems work.
Report haynesey89 November 10, 2009 3:51 PM GMT
Thanks all for the help here.

RE: ImHere.

I agree with the reply you have received. Things went well for you. By "testing" a system I want to see if it's profitable long term. It isn't hard to back a huge underdog then sell of as odds drop etc.

The system is dependent on laying, and from what little research I've done seems profitable. Their is good volume in the market, which is one of the main problems with most of my older new redundant systems.

I'm thinking of allocating £1k to testing the system.
Report Mudflaps November 10, 2009 5:07 PM GMT
Also make sure you re-test the methods that appear profitable over a different time period, you may just have discovered something which isn't sustained across a season.
Report One Barry Robson November 10, 2009 6:33 PM GMT
I'm always told there are NO winning systems - hope this helps
Report macarony November 10, 2009 6:51 PM GMT
aye robot 10 Nov 13:52


It's probably work buying a couple of hunderd matches- just to see how everything fits together. It will cost you a bit of money but it's cheaper than losing bets.

Your other option is to reccord odds using Gruss, but you can ony every gather so much data and it will take a while to do. The good thing about fracsoft is that you can get a whole season's worth of price information immediately and once you've bought the market you can examine it from any number of angles.

You may well find that what you're thinking of doesn't work, but the process of researching it gives you other ideas- that's certaily my experience


How do you record in Gruss and can you record a whole match/race?
Report aye robot November 10, 2009 7:23 PM GMT
It's pretty easy to set up a spread sheet that will do this using the excel integration- you can record anything you like but if you're not careful you can end up with too much data. There are various threads about this on the Gruss forum if you search for them. The providers themselves will not support it as that would be in breach of their agreement with Betfair but as a customer you are allowed to put together a spreadsheet and record data for your own personal use.
Report xxlandofsmilesxx November 11, 2009 4:58 AM GMT
betexplorer dot com has past results with prices useful for backchecking.
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