Laying Football Teams Pre KO

Hopefully get round to posting my results tomorrow. In a loss position overall now since new start I'm pretty sure.

Not quite in a loss position, but very disappointed with the last few days results, hot favs. being beaten all over the place. been into the over/under 1.5 market, doing ok until Brazil U21s' only scored 1 against Costa Rica last night, were expected to score a hatfull.. there was even an over/under 7 goals market on that one! It seems most of the posters on this thread have hit a slump lately, wonder why it's been so, it's like a cold going round!

last 7 days, going for a lie down after postring this..

Rep of Ireland U21 v Switzerland U21 : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 13-Oct-09 21:37 16.41
Brazil U20 v Costa Rica U20 : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 13-Oct-09 20:52 -41.64 :( :(
Croatia U21 v Serbia U21 : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 13-Oct-09 17:45 13.31
Romania U21 v Faroe Islands U21 : Correct Score 13-Oct-09 13:50 7.43
Romania U21 v Faroe Islands U21 : Half Time Score 13-Oct-09 12:48 9.24
Frosinone v Crotone : Match Odds 12-Oct-09 21:35 -29.18 :(
Sundsvall v Vasby : Match Odds 12-Oct-09 20:05 -68.00 :( :(
Bolivia v Brazil : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 11-Oct-09 22:56 4.02
Bolivia v Brazil : Match Odds 11-Oct-09 22:52 -42.97 :(
Cadiz v Cartagena : Match Odds 11-Oct-09 21:51 -26.30 :(
Salernitana v Cittadella : Match Odds 11-Oct-09 21:46 -37.12 :(
Betis v Real Union : Match Odds 11-Oct-09 19:53 5.14
Sociedad v Salamanca : Match Odds 11-Oct-09 16:00 11-Oct-09 17:48 8.40
Lyngby v FC Vestsjaelland : Match Odds 11-Oct-09 17:43 9.22
Oostende v RBD Borinage : Match Odds 11-Oct-09 15:57 6.40
Sassuolo v Grosseto : Match Odds 11-Oct-09 15:52 -43.97 :(
Vicenza v Cesena : Match Odds 11-Oct-09 13:20 11.41
Kazakhstan U21 v Sweden U21 : Over/Under 2.5 goals 11-Oct-09 10:00 -11.00 :(
KB Copenhagen v HIK : Match Odds 11-Oct-09 11:35 -20.79 :(
Toronto FC v San Jose Earthquakes : Match Odds 10-Oct-09 23:28 6.03
Serbia v Romania : Match Odds 10-Oct-09 21:27 6.53
Austria v Lithuania : Match Odds 10-Oct-09 21:22 5.81
Ukraine v England : Match Odds 10-Oct-09 17:15 -31.50 :(
Finland v Wales : Match Odds 10-Oct-09 16:52 8.19
Japan v Scotland : Correct Score 10-Oct-09 13:10 5.23
Dundalk v St Patricks : Match Odds 09-Oct-09 22:02 7.71
Maastricht v Telstar : Match Odds 09-Oct-09 20:59 8.64
Finland U21 v Netherlands U21 : Match Odds 09-Oct-09 19:50 4.44
Greece U21 v Portugal U21 : Match Odds 09-Oct-09 18:51 0.39
Colon v Arsenal FC : Match Odds 09-Oct-09 00:08 7.37
Falkenbergs v Landskrona : Match Odds 08-Oct-09 20:06 9.20
Croatia v Qatar : Half Time Score 08-Oct-09 17:19 24.33
Mohun Bagan AC v JCT : Match Odds 08-Oct-09 14:05 -29.99 :(
Tigre v Huracan : Match Odds 07-Oct-09 23:37 8.08
Liverpool (R) v Burnley (R) : Match Odds 07-Oct-09 20:53 4.48
Germany U20 v Nigeria U20 : Match Odds 07-Oct-09 20:53 2.76
Brazil U20 v Uruguay U20 : Match Odds 07-Oct-09 17:21 6.28

Its definitely this international break that has done it. League games seem much more reliable. So lets hope for a major change of fortune for us all this weekend and lets not blow any more money before then. I am trying to make enough for a holiday next summer but at this rate I will be in a tent on Bognor beach. Good luck

The way things have been going for me Maven I'll be setting up my home as a guesthouse for the summer instead to earn some green instead of going on hols! LOL

Wee recovery last night. It's definitely no coincidence that my best results are from Sligo Rovers game as knowledge is higher there. Might be something in that if John were to give us details on Swans, Carson Blues, others as appropriate.

Bet 149. Lay S Africa U20s at 8.2 WON £47.80
Bet 150. Lay Hungary U20s at 4.4 WON £95.60
Bet 151. Lay Bournemouth at 3.05 WON £95.60
Bet 152. Lay Uruguay U20 at 5.7 WON £66.03
Bet 153. Lay Nigeria U20 at 6.0 WON £66.92
Bet 154. Lay Sydney at 3.8 LOST £280.01
Bet 155. Lay Adelaide at 3.35 WON £95.60
Bet 156. Lay S Korea U20 at 3.75 WON £95.60
Bet 157. Lay Hungary U20 at 4.40 WON £95.60
Bet 158. Lay Galway at 4.9 WON £36.95
Bet 159. Lay Scotland at 6.8 WON £66.92
Bet 160. Lay Bosnia U21 at 8.6 WON £48.76 ( backed £4 at 100 IR)
Bet 161. Lay Wycombe at 5.0 WON £57.36
Bet 162. Lay Exeter at 6.2 WON £52.58
Bet 163. Lay Walsall at 7.0 WON £43.02
Bet 164. Lay Germany U20 at 5.1 WON £63.10
Bet 165. Lay Port Vale at 4.6 LOST £252.00
Bet 166. Lay Ukraine at 3.7 LOST £540.00
Bet 167. Lay Sweden at 3.25 WON £143.55
Bet 168. Lay Uruguay at 5.0 LOST £320.00
Bet 169. Lay Gillingham at 3.85 WON £95.70
Bet 170. Lay Oman at 11.5 WON £43.06

Current Bank £9279.54

2009-10-14
11:24 527301067 2009-10-14
09:55 Fixtures 14 October Australia v Oman / Match Odds / Oman
Lay 11.49 45.00 Won

2009-10-09
13:57 521665486 2009-10-09
11:28 Fixtures 09 October Perth v Adelaide / Match Odds / Adelaide United
Lay 3.35 100.00 Won

2009-10-09
11:56 521427499 2009-10-09
09:30 Fixtures 09 October Melbourne v Sydney / Match Odds / Sydney FC
Lay 3.80 100.00 Lost

2009-10-13
21:43 9173306452 2009-10-13
18:58 Fixtures 13 October Brighton v Gillingham / Match Odds / Gillingham
Lay 3.85 100.00 Won

2009-10-11
01:02 9153022444 2009-10-10
23:29 Fixtures 10 October Ecuador v Uruguay / Match Odds / Uruguay
Lay 5.00 80.00 Lost

2009-10-10
20:51 9150306102 2009-10-10
18:21 Fixtures 10 October Denmark v Sweden / Match Odds / Sweden
Lay 3.25 150.00 Won

2009-10-10
19:09 9149326531 2009-10-10
17:15 Fixtures 10 October Ukraine v England / Match Odds / Ukraine
Lay 3.70 200.00 Lost

2009-10-10
17:29 9145595647 2009-10-10
13:57 Fixtures 10 October Shrewsbury v Port Vale / Match Odds / Port Vale
Lay 4.60 70.00 Lost

2009-10-10
17:22 9146367852 2009-10-10
14:38 Fixtures 10 October Brazil U20 v Germany U20 / Match Odds / Germany U20
Lay 5.10 15.00 Won

2009-10-10
17:22 9145986080 2009-10-10
14:17 Fixtures 10 October Brazil U20 v Germany U20 / Match Odds / Germany U20
Lay 5.10 51.00 Won

2009-10-10
17:10 9145667692 2009-10-10
14:01 Fixtures 10 October MK Dons v Walsall / Match Odds / Walsall
Lay 7.00 31.00 Won

2009-10-10
17:10 9145628574 2009-10-10
13:59 Fixtures 10 October MK Dons v Walsall / Match Odds / Walsall
Lay 7.00 14.00 Won

2009-10-10
17:07 9145621039 2009-10-10
13:58 Fixtures 10 October Huddersfield v Exeter / Match Odds / Exeter
Lay 6.20 55.00 Won

2009-10-10
17:05 9145608075 2009-10-10
13:58 Fixtures 10 October Gillingham v Wycombe / Match Odds / Wycombe
Lay 5.00 60.00 Won

2009-10-10
14:34 9144584501 2009-10-10
12:19 Fixtures 10 October Wales U21 v Bosnia U21 / Match Odds / Bosnia U21
Lay 8.60 55.00 Won

2009-10-10
13:10 9143954932 2009-10-10
10:46 Fixtures 10 October Japan v Scotland / Match Odds / Scotland
Lay 6.80 70.00 Won

2009-10-09
22:02 9138170869 2009-10-09
19:31 Fixtures 09 October Sligo Rovers v Galway Utd / Match Odds / Galway Utd
Lay 4.90 38.65 Won

2009-10-09
20:55 9137321063 2009-10-09
18:41 Fixtures 09 October Italy U20 v Hungary U20 / Match Odds / Hungary U20
Lay 4.40 100.00 Won

2009-10-09
17:22 9135028863 2009-10-09
15:25 Fixtures 09 October South Korea U20 v Ghana U20 / Match Odds / South Korea U20
Lay 3.75 100.00 Won

Sorry to bore everyone with all those cut & pastes, but didn t want to be accused of any aftertiming etc, so I always cut and paste all bets that aren t posted on the forum in advance.

A few lessons learned over the w/end.

1) stay on top of posting, because its a pain in the backside having to update loads at once

2) don t bet when had a shandy over the odds

3) don t bet just because "it matters more when there is money on it", surely we could create a group legal action over that advert!!

4) get the staking consitent, was all over the shop over the last couple of days

Can t see me playing too much later on, struggling to find much that I have confidence in & don t want to ruin a nice afternoons drinking pre game by finding out later on that Germany were not actually trying against Finalnd etc etc.

GL all of you that decide to take a few on.

Need some serious study on Thurs/Fri for the w/end ahead, not making much progress of late, but a good solid w/end ( 10 in a row or something like that) can turn that around.

Carson I'm sure you don't care and I have no reason to doubt you, but you are aftertiming.

Posting selections after an event is completed is the definition of aftertiming. Posting the bet transactions as you have is largely meaningless as you could simply omit some losing bets in order to overstste your position.

Lily, valid point.

To be honest I update my selections afterwards purely for my own reference so I can keep track of these lays on an individual basis as oppose to eveything else that is actually going on in my actual BF account. Using just the P & L etc would be hard work in the long run.

Anyway, no offence taken & I guess at least it means I don t need to bother cut & pasting again.

Cheers & Good Luck.

Updated for results since last Friday

Starting Bank €500
Current Bank €383.23
Profit/(Loss) to Date €116.77

Aftertiming in this situation doesnt matter. If I am going to lose money it is by betting on my own selections rather than someone elses. I am interested to see what others have bet on and it is nice to share the pain as I go along but whether the bets are put up before or after isnt important.

bit of aftertiming from me then, don't matter to me one bit.
Liechtenstein v Wales
Lay 0-0 liab. 83.00 @ 11.5 to win 7.90 WON 7.90


Fixtures 14 October / Liechtenstein v Wales / Correct Score
0 - 0 Lay 9181775431 14-Oct-09
18:43 11.5 7.90 11.5 14-Oct-09 18:43

catch up later with the last few days bets... there weren't many!

no need to post, look above earlier post today.. it's been a long day!

So at last some decent football looms on the horizon. Fancy laying draws in all the prem games tomorrow but no doubt sanity will rule in the morning. A small lay on Laval tonight looks a possibility but may just decide to get a curry instead.

If your form is anything like mine, a nice vindaloo would be on the order :D
Had winner earlier, layed Aachen, currently got a lay on Gdansk.. poor match, one goal could settle it.. hopefully for Ruch, but can't see where a goal is coming from. Cue 3-3. Gl.

Ruch 1-0 :)

hope you took the curry option, maven ;)

well done john hopefully a good omen for the weekend. Luckily I went for the curry although it wasnt very good - it was a pretty malnourished bit of chicken they gave me. However it saved me on the laval game. Good luck today

carson how are you doing mate
Are you working today?

Hi Sevey, I m good mate, hope you are to.

Havn t been very active over the last week.

Was slightly down yesterday with lays of Ghana U20s, Alemania Aachen going my way, but a lay of Vaslui in Romania going against me, no major damage done.

Will be playing today with a starting point of laying Villa.

Considerations after that are Palace, Swansea, Altrincham & Mainz.

GL all.

lol maven. If I followed your lead & had a curry everytime I was uncertain whether to bet or not I would have a stomach ulcer!!

Well Done John, hope you can have a bank building run now.

PS maven, it must have been a dodgy one if you were posting on here at 4.27!!

carson ps layed under 5pts bookings market at 3.45

sorry in the rangers game

Quite correct Carson - not too good in the night. Good luck today - not sure about your boys today - are you confident!
I am off to Goodison - not certain about who will score our goals but surely we can beat Wolves.
I am laying Wolves (though poor value), Peterboro, Derby,
Millwall, Exeter, Crawley and Hoffenheim and of course Darlington although I am getting worried about them.

maven, can t see us getting anything, but think we will keep it quite respectable.

Had to do a couple of hours at work this morning so have had to give it a miss. A pub down in the town has terrorist TV though, so a couple of pints & watch at leisure is the order of the day.

Hope you do turn the Wolves over, need to keep them down there with us.

With regards to Blues, just want Januray to come now, though still won t believe we will spend till its actually done.

GL with the selections.

sevey, GL wiuth the cards selection, still havn t really spent any time looking into that angle.

carson the cards were no good so done the dough at 1430 hrs again
Had a 1500hrs double Everton & Dundee Utd that was no good either so i will call it a day good night to you sir & hope you got some pay cheers

What an absolute shocker at Goodison - worst I have seen Everton in about 10 years. We looked a division 2 side. So lucky I didnt lose a packet with laying wolves at 8.2 - equaliser 2 minutes from time saved me. Didnt do Darlington in the end as odds were up around 5 so lucky there. did lay Millwall and they won 4-0! - shows how much I know! Still a profit on the day albeit not great was most welcome.
Sorry about your lads Carson but perhaps not so bad after conceding early. Hope results went ok for everyone today.

I was thinking of laying ther draw in every prem game this weekend. So far only my own team have let me down!
Today have layed Burnley, Atalanta, Midylland and Tenerife. Atalanta are winning at present so will try and recoup on the City game. Not sure how though!

Ath Bilbao v Gijon
Lay Gijon @ 4.5 liab 33.00 to win 8.96
4.5 £9.42 £42.39 £32.97
Ref: 9218727574 Bet placed: 17:50 18-Oct-09

whats happening guys john/sligo/carson
you have not gave up the ghost
very quiet on here at the moment are you coming back on board ?

Not given up at all, sevey. It's been a mixed last 2 weeks or so for me, went through a really tough patch, some really bad results. I've been skipping back and forth to the CS markets, had a couple of wins, and no losers in the last 5 or 6 bets, so might concentrate a bit more on there for the time being.
Got stung on the AC/Roma match the other night, layed AC when they went 1 down, then went out for the evening... surprise, surprise... they won 2-1. If I'd been home would have got out of that one.
Couple for tonight in the championship.. Swansea (my home team) are without Tate, strongest in defence, will be badly missed, Pintado (who is capable of playing much better), and Orlandi.
Away to WBA.. can't see Swans getting anything there.
Forest are capable of trouncing Barnsley(who isn't?) if they try, even though Barnsley have put a mini run of good results lately.
Swansea @ 7.2
Barnsley @ 5.1
Take your pick.

kick on john cheers

Went a bit off the rails last week with some serious chasing on the gee-gees. Discipline went to shreds and bank has taken a battering.

On top of that two of my footy team lays (Chelsea and Unirea managed to turn leads into defeats) Will start posting again soon but might not be tonight.

Good luck to John, Carson, Sevey and all who are keeping things on track!

Just the one for tonight....
Nottm Forest v Barnsley
Lay Barnsley @ 4.9 liab 42.27 to win 10.36 4.9 £10.89 £53.36 £42.47

layed rangers at 1.87

WBA 0-1 Swans.. glad I stayed away from this one!
Very unexpected, happy nevertheless.

Hope to see your lads hang on John as it would be a scalp.
Your lay on Barnsley was safe as houses at half time as they had all in defence and one attack.
Hitting Forest on the break now and have missed 2 gd chances last few minuits as forest also going close.

Well John
Forest winner 90+2.
Got to be honest though,Barnsley done a real job tonight and had 4 good chances 2nd half.
They are a team to keep on the right side of now as Robins has turned it round.

Forest 1-0 in added time :)

Moussi sent off after scoring?
Yes, Barnsley surprised many tonight, I genuinely thought Forest would win comfortably.

90+.. Swans hanging on to 0-1!

Great result for the Swans as it makes the league table look exactly what it is,The most competitive Div in europe.
How many points between the top ten.
Plenty of time for Swans to gatecrash as we were bottom six 6/7 games ago.
Sad thing tonight is Billy Davies said ref apologised for sending off Moussi for celebrating his first club goal in inj time.
Refs words were he was sorry as he does not believe in the rule.

layed Rangers opponennts and was pig sick that they squandered a lead and then missed a pen.

worse was to follow...........

then tried to recoup my pending loss with a lay of 2-2 of Inter's match with 25 minutes to go - it finished 2-2 so £250 down - IT WAS THE ONLY CHAMPS LEAGUE MATCH NOT TO HAVE A GOAL AFTER 65 MINUTES AND IT'S THE ONE GAME i CHOSE TO BET ON.....feel so low still this morning.

I could have picked any one of 8 matches and I've picked the only one without a goal in it

I know how you feel OBR- I layed the draw in the Arsenal game and was going to green up after 70 minutes for 60% profit. For some insane reason I decided to let it run - pure greed and of course lost the lot. Good luck today

cheers


thinking I'll keep going risking £90 ish to win £20 each time.

Only laying away teams and will green out after 60-70 minutes if level - it's more about what I'm risking than what I'm winning at that stage.

Do you think I have the right approach???

I'm p1ssed off with risking silly money (ie £500 on Wade v Priestley and £500 Man Utd v Sunderland) but want a small steady income each day - £20 is all I aak.

AC a certain lay for me tonight
Real are on great form especially at the bernebeu

That's really tough, maven.. but unfortunately it happens all to often. I've been swaying towards greening up on many occasions, and done it, only to see the original bet come good... it's finding the right time to do it, protecting the bank is becoming more of a priority until I can build it up again. It's nice to have a cushion to give you a comfort zone.
same goes to OBR. GL for this evening.

doesn't seem right lying Milan at 7 - as pointed out on the footy forum

seems I was right about Milan, I got a bit lucky myself as I did lay them pre match and when they made it 1-1 I logged in to secure my potential loss only for them to score again, luckily a Real equaliser came along and I did avoid a loss as their winner duly came along.

Well I need a rethink I layed thevdraw in the Wolsburg game - only game all night without a goal! Back to the drawing board.

This dead now?

dont know what happend to carson
3k up in his 1st month

Bought Birminghan :(

his ship was sailing for the high seas of China
Lost At Sea Hope Not ?

LAY OF SHEFF UTD 2.88 BET 1

Lets keep this thread going it was good!!!!

lay under 5 pts in the booking market @ 3.5

gl sevey

cheers doo the only promblem is you can trade out i cant

Bet 2 lay Palace 4.9

Bet 2 lay Palace 4.9

keep the kettle boiling...
small lay Bayern Munich tonight, lots of players missing, Bordeaux will be up for it!
gl.

morning john

Morning All, sorry I let this drop. The Real World had to take over for a while, had some family business to sort out in Vienna. Still been laying but as I fell behind with this I just couldn t be bothered to go through all the backdating.

Took a bit of a hit over the last round of CL games with lays of Unirea, Lyon & AC Milan, but back into it now and on a run of about 15 unbeaten with lays of Brno, Aalborg & Sheff U last night.

Anyway will try & revive this now.

Thanks to those that have posted in my absence & GL to you all.

John/Sevey have seen your posts on some other threads when have had a look in. Hope you are both winning.

morning carson nice to hear from you again
hope everything is well back to do the bizzo again?

Morning Sevey, all good thanks, just my sister was a little unwell, all OK now. So, yes I am back and eager to catch up for lost time.

Its all been a bit one step forward, one to the side & then one back of late.

Like I say, on a good run at the momment so long may it continue!!

nice to hear from you again mate and glad to hear you sis is ok take care blue/boy cheers

Welcome back Carson.

Cheers Sligo. Hope you have been fairing OK?

Not great mate. Had a fairly poor run around the time of the last set of Internationals Qualifiers. Culminated in a little bit of chasing on markets I knew squat diddly about and you know the rest! :-(

On the plus side Sligo Rovers made it to the FAI Cup Final for the first time in 15 years which is something to look forward to.

Gonna get back involved in this and Correct score thread in the near future but with smaller stakes to start and more selective bets (I hope!).

GL Sligo. Betting on football so much like playing it. Confidence is vital!!

PS: Getting to see your team in a FA Cup final, amazing!! Maybe something I can look forward too in the future with the strong HK dollar!!

Hi Carson,

Thought you might have got your villa already!

I've layed Wolfsburg and Bayern tonight.

lLay Under 5 pts in The Bookings Market
Rangers Game @ 3.10

Layed west ham and rangers

How's your bank looking now Carson?

Layed Under 5 pts Bookings Market Liverpool Game @ 2.46

Layed Under 5 pts Bookings Market Liverpool Game @ 2.46

Hello again lads - good to see this thread is going again. Cant believe Sexual you layed West Ham yesterday and got away with it. As an Everton fan we are simply awful at present. Still I am hoping for a Brum win tonight!!
Saw on another forum a system which involved backing home favourites between 1.5 and 1.8 on Betdevil. Someone had commented it is actually a better laying system - i.e to lay the away team. I have used it for a week now and havent had a loser yet which makes a change for me. Only problem is it is far fewer bets which is good discipline but very boring - so nothing tonight. Still I was losing before so anything was better than that. Good luck tonight.

Sorry Sexual misread the date of the West Ham game - hope your loss wasnt too bad.

Hi Maven. Are you backing all home teams that fall into that price range or using your own criteria along withthe price to make selections?

Sorry Sligo didnt make myself clear. I am laying the away team as quite a few of these games end in draws so it doesnt work as a backing system. The odds are usually around 5 - 6 on betfair. I wont go above 6 - last night for example didnt do Inter Milan cos Roma were 8.2. Also looking at the stats for this season it would not work in serie A or French 1. So far have confined myself to English all divs, German Bundeslig 1, Spain Primera and Dutch Erdi. Oh and no cup games or internationals which have been my undoing. Which means a barren couple of weeks coming up which is a real pain. So far it has worked well but may be just a good run which soon will end. Would it work on the Irish league I wonder?

In a previous life I was Carson Yeung. Been thinking about this project again for quite a while. On analysis, I feel that I was close to making a success of things on here, and not sure what caused me to lose focus and let things drop. I suppose most challenges/threads on here eventually head that way. Thinking back, not only do I think I got close to success, but I actually really enjoyed posting and getting other peoples tips and opinions as well. Feel that I am at a stage where I need to put a lot more consideration into my punting so I am going to start posting my selections on here as I go. Likely that the first one could well be a lay of my own Team, Brum at Leicester tomorrow night. Taking the Palace performance out of the equation, we have been poor for so long, on so many levels. I know Lee Clark is working with one arm tied behind his back, but I am not convinced. All in, just cannot see us winning. So, that will probably be Bet No. 1, unless something else jumps out in the mean time. Here's hoping for a start to this campaign as I had back in 2009. Good Luck to one and all taking on the gambling Gods today.

If you want to be successful you need to change your thinking from "All in, just cannot see us winning." to "I don't think the price available accurately reflects the probability of us winning".

Make you selections value orientated rather than outcome orientated and you may have half a chance of success.

U.A, I know you are right on this. I guess I need to try and adapt what I believe is a good reading of how a football match will go to include price, probability and value

Lets go maninhavana.

Layed Birmingham last night. Todays lays are Fulham, Huddersfield & Wigan.

Correction, Fulham Huddersfield & Millwall

Hi,

In previous betfair forum lives I have been Carson & ManinHavnna, not even sure what name this will post as. Layed three last night Villa, Bristol City & Ipswich and it got me thinking about this little project of mine that I didn't see through.

Let's see if I can revive it with a bit of success.

Need to have a look throughout the day and post again later.

You don't know which team will win nor will you ever know before the match.

However, If you have a method of calculating the percentage chance of a given team winning, you now know the  fair  odds. If you can get  unfair  odds in your favour, you are very likely to make a profit over the long haul.

For example, if you can get 6/4 about every team that you believe has a 50% chance of winning, it's happy days.

In effect, don't forecast the result. Calculate the true odds and step in when they are in your favour.

Four for tonight

Hapoel Beer Shiva 5.6
Monaco 4.6
Blackburn 4.4
Newcastle 6.6

Would also fancy unders in all of the CL games ( although that isn't what this thread is about)

Celtic 1.64
Dundalk 1.63
Ludogrets 1.59
Porto 1.81
Villareal 1.6

I'm generally not going to oppose home teams, so again not going in the main laying stats, but I think I would take on both Bristol Rovers (2.66) and fleetwood (2.54) at those prices. Let's see how this all pans out.

Newcastle ?   You mean Reading I think.

Yes Platini. I ain't very good at this forum writing/blogging thing! Not that good at gambling either for that matter!

Going to add an unders bet from the championship, Cardiff v Blackburn at 1.74.

Bad start in Villareal

2 out of 6 games I have for unders having a goal in the first 15, not a great start.

Villareal equalise, good for the Monaco lay, bad for the unders.

So a HT update:

4 main lays are all OK at the moment. Cardiff 2up & Celtic 3 up, Newcastle & Villareal drawing.
2 home lays are both OK. Bolton 2 up and Oxford drawing at Fleetwood.

Unders bets, Celtic already busted, 2 at Cardiff & Villareal, 1 in Porto, 0 at Ludo & Dundalk.

Fair to stay it's all still in the balance.