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d13phe
08 Nov 09 12:40
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Date Joined: 18 Jul 03
| Topic/replies: 22,897 | Blogger: d13phe's blog
Serious question

I mainly play high odds betting events (e.g. correct score, HT/FT)

Had a few come in early in the season but going through a bit of a bad run but I am constantly having near misses recently and although a winner is a winner, I am quite confident about my judgement at the moment.

Its quite a bizarre situation to be in. I am losing money but quite happy with my picks.

Any similar experiences?
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Report aceofspades November 8, 2009 1:50 PM GMT
Backing at longer odds I think its inevitable you will get runs like the one you describe

Imo schalke et al bet at low odds to get the
Report tobermory November 8, 2009 2:36 PM GMT
Yes it is inevitable for anyone backing mostly Odds Against.

I'm not betting much lately , just low stakes , and i've been doing HT/FT in preferernce to Match Odds in games where i think the value is much the same on both markets

These are my last 4 HT/FT Singles:

Holland away to Scotland HT 0-0 / Won 1-0
Wigan vs Fulham HT 0-0/ Won 2-1
Argentina away to Uragay HT 0-0 / Won 1-0
Liverpool v Man U HT 0-0/ Won 2-0
Report JPG November 8, 2009 2:42 PM GMT
Dont know quite where to begin with this one! :)

First thing, and I know this will be controversial, but "form" doesnt actually exist (a bit like how "luck" doesnt exist.) Its not something you "have" or are "in" its a way of labeling an event or series of events neatly from a language point of view.

Now, if you want to use the word 'confidence' instead, then that is a lot more accurate. So if the OP has good confidence but losing money at present, then I can certainly believe that and furthermore, would venture that the OP is in a good and solid position.

Its true for many types of approach but especially long odds; the short term varience of your results is inevitable. The near misses are inevitable. There are only so many possible outcomes on correct score and double result markets that if you place enough bets, you will not only hit winners, not only hit losers that were way off the mark, but also hit losers that were ever so close. How these differing type of results are grouped or sequenced will constantly be random.

Apologies to OP if this sounds Im having a go at you, far from it. From the tone of your post, it sounds like you are "above" the pitfalls and tribulations that many bettors struggle to defeat but you're asking a question that will stoke up those very problems (at best) or even lead you to fall back into them (at worst.)

You're quite right in that its a "bizarre situation to be in" but for the wrong reasons. Its bizare, not because of what you are experiencing but bizarre due to very few people reaching and maintaining that postion in the first place.
Report Northbouy November 8, 2009 2:45 PM GMT
if you are losing how you in good form ?? You have bee close but not winning. And you have been losing money.

Surely you have missed opportunities to trade your position ?? So why do you think you are in good form if you have missed these opportunities ??

Unless you strictly never trade. In which case maybe consider adding it to your arsenal, even if it means running two strategies concurrently, and trading half your position.
Report JPG November 8, 2009 2:50 PM GMT
Morrigan 08 Nov 15:45

if you are losing how you in good form ?? You have bee close but not winning. And you have been losing money.

Surely you have missed opportunities to trade your position ?? So why do you think you are in good form if you have missed these opportunities ??

Unless you strictly never trade. In which case maybe consider adding it to your arsenal, even if it means running two strategies concurrently, and trading half your position.


All due respect, but this post is evidence of what I meant by "stoking up those problems."

I have no doubt whatsoever, that the above poster is well intentioned. His/her comments are legitimate/logical ones to make, are coming from an intellectual way of thinking yet, quite possibly, could be unwittingly doing damage to the OP.
Report Northbouy November 8, 2009 2:53 PM GMT
how does it do damage, it preserves his bank !!
Report d13phe November 8, 2009 3:00 PM GMT
the only strict rules i have is a staking system

much of what i bet on i dont have access to watch so dont trade

i dont really like trading anyway

no offence taken JPG :), its just a discussion thread.
Report tobermory November 8, 2009 3:00 PM GMT
It would damage me for sure.

Thats because i don't have any confidence in my abilty to price In Running games up as i have never taken the time to research what prices should be at different scorelines at 65mins 80mins etc

I have a lot of confidence in pricing up games pre match, and would always expect to be in profit long term ( even with last minute equalizers against me etc) , so i would consider Pre Match and In Play 2 completely different markets , even on the same event , one where i am very confident and the other where i would be guessing.

So long term i would win pre match and lose in play , making 'greening up' harmful.
Report JPG November 8, 2009 3:01 PM GMT
Morrigan,

Like I said unwitting damage.

Its not the actual advice you are offering thats damaging (it could very well be the opposite.)

Its the fact that your advice possibly might make the OP question himself and his approach. This is what I meant by the OP falling back into the pitfalls and tribulations by asking the question in the first place.

If somebody is losing and is still confident, that is a huge positive sign for them. What wont be positive for them is adapting their approach to the signifcant level that you are suggesting for the reasons you are suggesting given his situation even if your advice is well intentioned and has good fundamentals.
Report Northbouy November 8, 2009 3:07 PM GMT
mugs.

if you are losing money, even slowly, then you should be trying to solve the problem, not smiling about it.
Report tobermory November 8, 2009 3:09 PM GMT
Cutting Profit by laying off bets that win loses money too
Report aye robot November 8, 2009 5:32 PM GMT
All strategies suffer variance, understanding the difference between a bit of negative variance and a bad strategy is critically important.

Trading out of good value back bets using "blind" lays may make you feel better in the short term, but it will cost you in the long term as you throw away part of your winnings on zero value lay bets which are gradually losing at the rate of comission.

It is only ever worth greening up your position if you are either sure that your balancing bet is value OR you know that either your initial bet or the balancing is value bet is but you don't know which (as with pre race traders). If you are confident that your initial bet is value but you don't know about the balancing bet- don't make that second bet.

Although like posters above I'd question his language (use of "Form" etc) I do recognise the OP's basic position, he's happy that he's been striking value bets, they just haven't been coming in. Nothing wrong with that.
Report tobermory November 8, 2009 6:12 PM GMT
v good post
Report scrooge_mcduck November 8, 2009 6:13 PM GMT
Oxymoron or poor staking strategy imo.
Report u want some November 8, 2009 6:15 PM GMT
Betfairy has

The Betfairy 08 Nov 18:42
Cheers. I won 4K on the Overs markets yesterday. Do I win?


The Betfairy 08 Nov 19:12
I DID NOT WIN 4K yesterday.
Report RonaldinhoRAT November 8, 2009 7:33 PM GMT
From the little detail about your selections i would (only guessing here) think you choose s**t bets and the natural variance is catching up with you.


Maybe the system you use is break even at best?????
Report d13phe November 8, 2009 8:28 PM GMT
just because i dont always bet favourites

it doesnt mean my bets are sh1t

i have a number of range bets that i bet at any one given time including different temisecale bets

i like to diversify my betting using a very strict staking system

seems to have worked for me
Report Terry Venables November 8, 2009 8:29 PM GMT
:^0
Report rink rat November 9, 2009 6:08 AM GMT
In horse racing Pick 4's quad's etc., you can be close and not cash. But if your in good form those close calls should mount up and eventually come through for you..
Report TheSnapper November 9, 2009 6:09 AM GMT
Have you ever been in good betting form but lost money?

That is a bizarre misunderstanding of reality.
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