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Stupiderlikeafox
06 Nov 09 18:44
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Date Joined: 26 May 09
| Topic/replies: 120 | Blogger: Stupiderlikeafox's blog
Ok, first post on the forum (please go easy if I get this totally wrong!).

I'm having my best year since I started to use the exchanges seriously about 7 years ago, and on the back of my best week for quite a while I thought I'd share my thoughts on this nice slightly better than 7-1 shot.

1. Martin Rogan. 'Should' (dangerous word I know) have won the first fight. I see him as too rough, too strong and fitter than Sexton in this rematch tonight. Had a great run on boxing bets and feel nearly as confident as I was that PBF would beat Hatton, and at a similar price.

I have put this in the treble, and have lumped on for the single. I will also be having a few speculators on Rogan stopping Sexton in the middle to late rounds.

2. Australia in the 4 Nations. (-48.5 on the High St) at 10/11. I can see nothing but a massacre here. The French have shot their bolt after 2 relatively ok performances. Aussies will put on 60+ points, so I just need them to be tight defensively to collect on the handicap. I believe they will be putting store on making sure the French do not cross their line and wont ease off like they did against England last week.

3. England to beat NZ at 2/1. Given the choice of both these teams at evens I would plump for NZ, but England are overpriced in what I believe will be a tight game. My plan (if the first 2 legs have scored) will be to lock in some guaranteed profit when England trade at much shorter than the current 3.2.

I'd be interested in anyones thoughts of this 7/1 shot?

Also especially interested to hear arguments as to why Sexton can beat Rogan. Personally I make him a 1.25 shot.

Good luck!

Paul.
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Report stevo29 November 6, 2009 10:11 PM GMT
I'd leave out leg 2. Australia are resting 7, France have 4 key players returning.
Report Stupiderlikeafox November 6, 2009 10:29 PM GMT
I take your point. The question I would put to you is would any of the 4 'key' French players get in the Aussie team?

The Kangaroo replacements are top notch guys.

Paul.
Report bluemoon246 November 6, 2009 10:37 PM GMT
first bet down unlucky fella wass on rogan myself!!
Report Stupiderlikeafox November 6, 2009 10:47 PM GMT
Misjudged that one completely! I didn't expect Rogan to gas so dramatically......

Typical isn't it, first time I post a bet on the forum and its the first losing boxing bet in the last 6.

Oh well, tomorrow is another day......

Still trying to work out the angles on the Haye/Valuev fight tomorrow. Its a fight I can make a case for either winning, but I dont see it going the distance......so probably have a slice of the odds against that it wont go the distance.

Paul.
Report Prickard November 6, 2009 10:51 PM GMT
Still the most profitable week of the year?
Report Stupiderlikeafox November 6, 2009 11:16 PM GMT
** - no.

Midday winning, and a couple of lays at BC got me some of the Rogan losses back......but a losing day for me.

Paul.
Report stevo29 November 7, 2009 12:06 PM GMT
In answer to the rugby league question, no the French 4 wouldn't make the Australian team (neither would the 7 Ozzie replacements, obviously).

For the hadicap to be covered you need France to either fold like a cheap suit for the final half hour again (I don't see it) or be dominated from the off with Australia not taking their foot off (like last week) plus you need the weather to not interfere when heavy rain is forecast.
Report Video_Lounge November 7, 2009 2:20 PM GMT
8 - 0 @ HT
Report Stupiderlikeafox November 7, 2009 7:29 PM GMT
2 odds on beat.

9/4 winner.

I make that a levels stake profit. ;-)

Paul.
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