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newoldboy
27 Oct 09 14:39
Joined:
Date Joined: 11 Aug 05
| Topic/replies: 2,507 | Blogger: newoldboy's blog
...Laying those for the past few days ,would have "cleaned" up .Have been away for quite a while - they seem to be getting worse/better ; dependent if you are backing/laying ! Expect some of you have filled your boots ! ...or have these been exceptional results ? , as I said have been off for a fair time.
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Report Hayden October 27, 2009 2:42 PM GMT
If you'd layed the full table of 52 for Sat / Sund / Mond you'd have lost 64pts based on betfair returned sp.
Report newoldboy October 27, 2009 2:45 PM GMT
Hayden - thanks ; BUT what about just the bottom 10 ?
Report Hayden October 27, 2009 2:48 PM GMT
no idea mate tbh don't look at who is where , sorry
Report Hayden October 27, 2009 2:51 PM GMT
the 22nd Oct you'd have lost 44pts on the day just to throw another one in.
Report newoldboy October 27, 2009 3:00 PM GMT
Hayden - thanks again for your input. So not so good then ! I must have looked ( today ) and that was a " one off " ! ...back to the drawing board ,yet again !...
Report Hayden October 27, 2009 3:24 PM GMT
just for the record you'd have won 18pts today if playing the full table , hardly worth commenting really tbh as each to their own filters.

good luck
Report newoldboy October 27, 2009 3:41 PM GMT
Hayden - cheers ; agree about filters.
Report Moon Light October 27, 2009 9:06 PM GMT
I've looked at this a bit, and my impression is that the bottom guys are picking longer-priced selections, so the overround will hit them harder at industry SP, and so they look bad in the naps table.
Report Do wah Diddy October 27, 2009 9:19 PM GMT
ive tried the bottom 5 bottom 10 bottom 15 a few times,,STARTED OFF WINNING THEN LOOSEING THE LOT ,
Report lippy October 27, 2009 11:03 PM GMT
Yawn , its a system as old as betfair itself , has been extensively debated on these forums probably around 2003.

Some claimed it was profitable others that the higher betfair lay odds made it not so
Report formcast October 28, 2009 3:30 AM GMT
Thank god for lippy!
Report top2rated October 28, 2009 4:16 AM GMT
A more sensible strategy may be to lay what are generally known as notebook horses.

Just make sure the notebook is widely read and you've got a ready made source of likely false priced favourites if they reappear within 28 days of their notebook run.
Report Tightfisted October 28, 2009 8:32 AM GMT
Try laying the bottom 20 of betfair naps competition, division 3, before they lose interest and drop out. ;)
Report SHAPESHIFTER October 28, 2009 8:43 AM GMT
newoldboy, many have looked at it. Some say they still do.

But you will find that some of them will be putting up ew selections at long odds and every once in a while they come in.

There are no click and win systems on betfair.
Report top2rated October 28, 2009 8:54 AM GMT
Tightfisted

Do you mind?

That's me you're talking about.

:^0
Report Tightfisted October 28, 2009 9:14 AM GMT
I just thought I'd keep the thread on track... notebooks !!!! ;)
Report zipper October 28, 2009 9:41 AM GMT
Laying the nap boys is a gold mine .. why on a good day they have 40 losers . seen em plenty of times only have 4 or 5 wins .. rest got Beat .. yesterday they had 11 Wins ........42 got beat ...... its all there in black and white ... season just finished only 8 showed a profit the other 46 were in the red .. and by the way them 8 profit clubed together would not pay for the Racing Post .. now bout £600 quid a year ...I rest my case My Lord .
Report zipper October 28, 2009 10:01 AM GMT
Heres another one for you stats boys .. Take the most pop nap of the day see signpost .. showing a loss on the year 32 points but take today Tafaool 6 naps .. should it win or loss they only add 1 point ... too the full amount this year any year they are losing thousands ... not 32 points .. just for the record zip lays the nag to the full amount .. and if i dont fancy the nag i will lay the horse for more ..
Report newoldboy October 28, 2009 1:43 PM GMT
Thanks all for your input ; I reckon systematically and being around at race times this is a golden egg opportunity...
Report Hayden October 28, 2009 1:46 PM GMT
lots of different filters have been suggested on here but all have stuttered as they haven't appeared to have any logic to support the stats they claim , to filter on stats alone is wrong and it will stutter and in most cases induce a tweak of the filter , before you know it you can't remember what worked at what didn't as you've " tweaked to suit " that many times , my filter has abeen applied untouched for 26 months now but has industry logic to support the stats and let's see how it pans out.

good luck if you're playing.
Report newoldboy October 28, 2009 1:56 PM GMT
Hayden - what are your thoughts on a " martingale " type of system ? ... albeit one would have to be there during racing ie .not just select and place bet in the morning and forget about it for the day.
Report Hayden October 28, 2009 2:02 PM GMT
no problem being here all day tbh as i'm full time but the martingale isn't for me , the beauty about systems with logical reasons why they work to support stats is that you can look at one cumulative p/l because you know you have both logic and stats on your side , how I perform on a daily basis is of no relevance to me as I only ever look at one long term figure , if you start looking at things daily it will affect all aspects of your betting and the bets dictate to you rather than the other way around.

good luck mate.
Report zipper October 28, 2009 2:10 PM GMT
Hayden .. see you joined in 2002 about the same time as me (zipper ) I like what you say about the long term ... could not have put it better myself ... good luck to you and very well said .... zip will watch your post with interest ........
Report Moon Light October 28, 2009 2:13 PM GMT
zipper, the figs in the table are at ISP, we can't lay at those prices.
I've seen your posts before, and reckon your success is due to the judgments you make about which ones to lay.
Report zipper October 28, 2009 2:53 PM GMT
Moon light I dont F all about isp its all about judgement see this 3.50 Tafool 6 naps the danger big bay 1 nap ... no naps on the others but there all in the dustbin
Report zipper October 28, 2009 3:01 PM GMT
Another most pop nap of the day gets stuffed ...... sorry to the last poster but i did not have time to post ...... when i was on the machine it was allready off . but you get the drift .... re these Nap Boys ... anyhow 4.00pm thats zip out .. with the cash ... talk tomorrow ... good luck if you carry on ..
Report lippy October 28, 2009 5:28 PM GMT
I dont understand those last two posts, either i have a bad hangover or your talking in a different language.

I used to run that competition , in fact i was the one who started the whole thing off , Zipper is correct in that most people made a loss , however as has been pointed out the results were worked out at starting price , not befair price.

Commision plus higher lay price , and possible premium charge would make a huge difference imo
Report Tightfisted October 28, 2009 7:19 PM GMT
Maybe this might help, most popular nap from naps table (I left out days when only 2 selections)

Date...sel..W...BSP....X sel....P / L ...Most Popular nap
01Oct...7...0...1.76...-7.00 ...-7.00 ...Manifest
02Oct...9...1...4.22...27.51 ...20.51 ...Special Duty
03Oct...7...0...2.24...-7.00 ...13.51 ...Ghanaati
04Oct...12...1...1.44..+5.02 ...18.53 ...Press The Button
05Oct...5...0...2.52...-5.00 ...13.53 ...Sham Sheer
06Oct...7...1...1.65...+4.32 ...17.85 ...Highland Glen
06Oct...7...0...3.35...-7.00 ...10.85 ...Zero Money
07Oct...3...1...1.95...+2.72 ...13.57 ...Cool Friend
07Oct...3...0...4.10...-3.00 ...10.57 ...Nimue
07Oct...3...0...2.84...-3.00 ....7.57 ...Goodwood Maestro
07Oct...3...0...6.80...-3.00 ....4.57 ...Newton Circus
07Oct...3...0...3.12...-3.00 ....1.57 ...French Art
08Oct...3...1...3.45...+6.98 ....8.55 ...Noafal
09Oct...3...1...3.55...+7.27 ...15.82 ...Timepiece
09Oct...3...0...2.80...-3.00 ...12.82 ...Middleton Dene
09Oct...3...0...7.60...-3.00 ....9.82 ...Blizzard Blues
09Oct...3...1...7.52...18.58 ...28.40 ...Felday
09Oct...3...0...2.93...-3.00 ...25.40 ...Native City
09Oct...3...0...2.45...-3.00 ...22.40 ...Worth A King´S
11Oct...4...0...5.50...-4.00 ...18.40 ...Prescription
12Oct...6...0...3.99...-6.00 ...12.40 ...Secrecy
13Oct...3...1...1.67...+1.91 ...14.31 ...Hafawa
13Oct...3...0...3.93...-3.00 ...11.31 ...Outland
13Oct...3...1...2.93...+5.50 ...16.81 ...Toby Jug
13Oct...3...1...1.73...+2.08 ...18.89 ...Botanist
14Oct...6...0...3.08...-6.00 ...12.89 ...Ingenue
15Oct...4...0...1.87...-4.00 ....8.89 ...Penang Princess
16Oct...3...0...5.78...-3.00 ....5.89 ...Gripsholm Castle
16Oct...3...0...5.00...-3.00 ....2.89 ...Maljimar
17Oct...3...0...5.71...-3.00 ...-0.11 ...Chabal
17Oct...3...0...7.91...-3.00 ...-3.11 ...Silver Grecian
17Oct...3...0..14.50...-3.00 ...-6.11 ...Alanbrooke
17Oct...3...0..22.70...-3.00 ...-9.11 ...Dayia
18Oct...7...0...2.08...-7.00 ..-16.11 ...Australia Day
19Oct...6...0...2.52...-6.00 ..-22.11 ...Hot Prospect
20Oct...4...1...1.23...+0.87 ..-21.23 ...Tataniano NIC
20Oct...4...1...2.00...+3.80 ..-17.43 ...Rule Of Nature SMS
21Oct...8...1...1.37...+2.81 ..-14.62 ...Pride Of Dulcote
22Oct...3...0...3.13...-3.00 ..-17.62 ...Doeslessthanme
22Oct...3...1...8.80...22.23 ....4.61 ...Description
22Oct...3...0...3.44...-3.00 ....1.61 ...The Whisperer
22Oct...3...1...2.99...+5.67 ....7.28 ...Zorro De La Vega
23Oct...6...0...2.56...-6.00 ....1.28 ...Tanfidh TRG
24Oct...6...1...2.65...+9.41 ...10.68 ...St Nicholas Abbey OB
25Oct...5...1...4.90...18.53 ...29.21 ...Toby Jug
26Oct...5...0...4.80...-5.00 ...24.21 ...Humidor
27Oct...6...0...1.52...-6.00 ...18.21 ...Longliner SMS
28Oct...6...0...2.21...-6.00 ...12.21 ...Tafaool TRG

Back 12.21 Points profit @ BSP
Back +1.04 Points profit @ ISP
LAY -26.50 Points LOSS @ BSP

It looks as though they've got October's form sussed.
Report lippy October 28, 2009 7:27 PM GMT
Hard to argue with cold hard facts.
Report zipper October 29, 2009 9:19 AM GMT
Tightfist your figs are correct .. but were we differ Zip does not back em all or lay em all take yesterday i said i would lay the nag and i did and it lost .. you ok with that .. but today 5.30 wolver Todber most pop nap 8 .. zips a backer why it cannot get beat .. and thats a very bold statement in a handicap .. but take a look at the FORM ...... you have to have opinions .. and zip has plenty ... same with the nap boys ... back some .. lay some .. some leave alone .... its only a bit of fun .....Form will beat any know system out of sight over a period of time ...
Report zipper October 29, 2009 10:00 AM GMT
Heres one for you Tightfist ... do you know anything about odds .. See this Todber when betting opens up it will look like the Grand National .. 10/1 bar one .
Report werbie October 29, 2009 11:13 AM GMT
Zip , what happened to your aversion to lower grade races ?
Report Tightfisted October 29, 2009 11:40 AM GMT
Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Todber 2. Leading Edge 3. Charles Darwin

Todber has won 3 of her last 5 starts and hasn't finished yet, able to race off the same mark as when successful at Kempton on Saturday. The well-treated Leading Edge looks most likely to threaten her supremacy, with Charles Darwin a fair bet for the minor honours.

Forecast
5.5 Todber , 7.6 Leading Edge , 10 Mayoman , 10 Charles Darwin , 11 Yanza , 13 Milldown Story , 13 Shakespeare's Son , 15 Romantic Queen , 17 Loyal Royal , 21 Perlachy , 29 Golden Dixie , 34 Timber Treasure , 34 Weekend Away

You seem to know better than BF, Zippo. I'm going to lay it just in case the jockey makes a mess of the start, gets boxed in, filly gone in coat, the Channon factor etc, the usual gremlins on the layers' side.
Report zipper October 29, 2009 11:53 AM GMT
Werbie some days there nowt but dross running ... and i need turnover ... if your waiting for See The Stars type .... you will have about 20 bets per year ...... thats what happened ........................
Report zipper October 29, 2009 11:55 AM GMT
Tightfist ........ Timeform Dont back or lay Horses .. They make their money selling nonsense to mugs like you .....
Report zipper October 29, 2009 11:57 AM GMT
Big p Little p ... should do better .. needs more time ........ need i go on Timeform my ///////////
Report zipper October 29, 2009 12:03 PM GMT
Hey a few years ago TOMMO work for Timeform .. and we all know how good he is at picking winners .. HO Ho Ho ........
Report zipper October 29, 2009 12:08 PM GMT
Lay away Tightfist ... Us backers need layers ... and when we Back we need layers .. thats how Betfair works .......easy pessy .........
Report zipper October 29, 2009 12:11 PM GMT
Got to go now dont forget back the winners ....... lay the bums .... and there are loads of bums today
Report Escapee October 29, 2009 12:22 PM GMT
Zipper........Todber.... evens ?....... value definitely on the layers side.

should be at least 7/4 against this field
Report zipper October 29, 2009 12:24 PM GMT
Tightfist just read that again So Timeform make this cert a 5.5 chance ...... no bookie in the world will go bigger than 11/10 .... win lose or draw .. if Timeform or any one else went 5.5 ....... they would be filled in big time .
Report zipper October 29, 2009 12:30 PM GMT
Escapee .. So lay it .. but remember this .... you cannot eat value .. and value dont pay the bills ........
Report zipper October 29, 2009 1:16 PM GMT
Mr AK nap Rosika gets stuffed .. its like taking candy of kids
Report zipper October 29, 2009 3:26 PM GMT
Escapee ... value .. picture this ... Christmas Day .. 2 kids have no gifts from Father Christmas .. no Turkey on the table ... no apple wine The wife is in tears .. you aint a pot to hiss in ........... but you got the value ... its only a though..........
Report zipper October 29, 2009 4:26 PM GMT
Tightfist .. Escapee Todber is 5/4 on course ... ok you big time layers show time ........ zip will take anything you put up .......
Report Escapee October 29, 2009 4:33 PM GMT
Todber didn't even make the frame.... LOL


Zipper, you shouldn't gamble your kids Xmas presents away on a nag..... get a grip on yourself
Report zipper October 29, 2009 4:35 PM GMT
Zip was wrong there big time ... good night .... sleep tight ..
Report Tightfisted October 29, 2009 4:40 PM GMT
I'm piffed off, 1.26 not matched on the place market, I guess there aren't enough MUGS like Zippo to go around.
Report zipper October 29, 2009 4:44 PM GMT
Escapee My only kid is 39 years old .. and she is a top Doctor ... and has no interest in this mad game of horses racing ......... but each to there own . But Iam still her Dad and she is my Fav Girl .... only Dads would understand that ......
Report tomi October 30, 2009 8:46 AM GMT
wherever he posts he is still a fool
Report newoldboy October 30, 2009 9:03 AM GMT
Just seen yesterdays results : ONLY 1 out of bottom 10 Tipsters selected a winner - sure as " eggs is eggs " if I start laying , that will be reversed and they all win !... will keep an eye on it pro temps !
Report sevey October 30, 2009 9:20 AM GMT
new/boy if you want to lay short things lay the Racing & Football Outlook Football Tips
Singles only They are Doing Bombs This Season
Last 4 Pages At The Back of The Paper Worth a Peep
Report zipper October 30, 2009 11:04 AM GMT
From the old fool zipper racing starts very soon but I guess know that ... were we oh I remember ...... Any one laying the... Nap Boys Today will get slaughtered ... only a guess........ lets see . today zips a backer ...
Report zipper October 30, 2009 12:45 PM GMT
Tarvini 1.30 Wetherby ......... Wins for the Nap Boys About 12/1 .. More pain to follow .... watch this space ......
Report zipper October 30, 2009 12:51 PM GMT
1.50 Newmarket ... here comes Puffy ..... 7 naps past the post .
Report Hayden October 30, 2009 1:26 PM GMT
If you adopt any backing or laying system then stats are never a sufficient reason on their own , you need to always ask the question " Why does this work " even during the winning periods and the stats will add support to that logic , I believe the old maxim " statistics don't provide answers but merely provoke more questions " and without solid logical reasoning for anything stats driven systems will always provide a false dawn eventually , if you don't know why it works then long term it won't.

good luck guys.
Report zipper October 30, 2009 1:35 PM GMT
Teeky 2.25 Newmarket Wins for the Nap Boys about 9/2 .. 6/1 on here ...... keep laying the nap boys .. more pain to follow .. watch this space ........
Report newoldboy October 30, 2009 1:36 PM GMT
sevey - cheers ! ; will do .[i ][/i]
Report zipper October 30, 2009 3:30 PM GMT
Ok you big time layers The nap Boys today Newmarket 1.15 Quick Wit 2 naps won .
Newmarket 2.25 Teeky 1 nap won 9/2 ... dont you just love the pain .....

Newmarket 3.00 Dy of the Eagle 1 nap won 3/1 ....
Wetherby 1.30 Travini won 12/1 dont you just love the pain
2.40 Bible Lord 3/1 won
3.45 Hunting Tower 4 naps won need i go on ...
Too Tightfist and his army of mugs ........ you got to know when to hold em ... and know when to fold em ,,,,, zippers off on a holiday now with my wife . But my best Pal will post for me ........ Hes DT 01 and hes very good .
Report zipper October 30, 2009 3:48 PM GMT
Why do I know DT is good ...... cause I taught him everyhing he knows .. but I did not teach him everything i know ... Its only a bit of fun ......
Report Tightfisted October 30, 2009 5:09 PM GMT
zipper 28 Oct 10:41
Laying the nap boys is a gold mine .. why on a good day they have 40 losers . seen em plenty of times only have 4 or 5 wins .. rest got Beat .. yesterday they had 11 Wins ........42 got beat ...... its all there in black and white ... season just finished only 8 showed a profit the other 46 were in the red .. and by the way them 8 profit clubed together would not pay for the Racing Post .. now bout £600 quid a year

Take the most pop nap of the day see signpost .. showing a loss on the year 32 points but take today Tafaool 6 naps .. should it win or loss they only add 1 point ... too the full amount this year any year they are losing thousands ... not 32 points .. just for the record zip lays the nag to the full amount .. and if i dont fancy the nag i will lay the horse for more ..

Tightfist your figs are correct .. but were we differ Zip does not back em all or lay em all

Sudden change of tune once he sees the figures

take yesterday i said i would lay the nag and i did and it lost .. you ok with that .. but today 5.30 wolver Todber most pop nap 8 .. zips a backer why it cannot get beat .. and thats a very bold statement in a handicap .. but take a look at the FORM ...... you have to have opinions .. and zip has plenty ... same with the nap boys ... back some .. lay some .. some leave alone .... its only a bit of fun .....Form will beat any know system out of sight over a period of time ...

zipper 29 Oct 17:26
Escapee Todber is 5/4 on course ... ok you big time layers show time ........ zip will take anything you put up ......

Escapee 29 Oct 17:33
Todber didn't even make the frame.... LOL

zipper 29 Oct 17:35
Zip was wrong there big time ... good night .... sleep tight ..


zipper 30 Oct 13:51
1.50 Newmarket ... here comes Puffy ..... 7 naps past the post .

Do you think we've forgotten the above ???

Enjoy your cruise on the big pond. Just DON'T SLIP OVER THE SIDE LIKE THAT OTHER SLIMEY TOAD. ;)
Report dt01 October 30, 2009 5:17 PM GMT
hi everybody, just seen zippers last post, he is of course quite right, he has taught me lots, but he will also tell you that I have taught him lots having owned, trained and bred horses and greyhounds for nearly 40yrs I think I know a bit about what goes on. Having said that, I am brand new to betfair and I shall be posting for zip while he is off cruising for his 39th honey moon and his 65th birthday all on the strength of his losses on here, good luck to him and his lovely wife Sue. What am I going to do while he is away? I normally lay his naps! Cheers every body.
Report Johnny The Guesser October 30, 2009 5:32 PM GMT
Just keep laying AK's naps...with a sensible stake recovery system. :-)

Bad value all the way.
Report Tightfisted October 30, 2009 9:19 PM GMT
dt01 30 Oct 18:17
... while he is off cruising for his 39th honey moon and his 65th birthday all on the strength of his losses on here.

Shirley OUR losses! You should know now not to believe him, but hope you can save him from relegation from div 1.
Report sevey October 31, 2009 7:14 PM GMT
NEW/BOY Racing&Football
Football Naps TUE/SUNDAY
Arsenal spurs Home win
S/land w/ham home win
F/ham l/pool draw
B/ley Hull draw
E/ton villa x villa to win xvilla to draw
Barnsley/man utd away win
Arsenal/liverpool x l/pool to win x l/pool to draw
Celtic/Hearts celtic/half time /full time
auguest/sept/october
lost lost lost
Report sevey November 2, 2009 8:31 AM GMT
sundays tip Cardiff Home Win
Total pts Staked 79 Return 55 pts -24 pts
Report sevey November 3, 2009 9:30 AM GMT
mondays nap 5 pts on sheff/utd to win as i said before its worth the 1.70 per week to have a peek
Report newoldboy November 5, 2009 2:15 PM GMT
...Just had time to look in - the bottom 10 seemed to have been hammered regularly since start of this post ... hope you're making plenty whilst these loosers are stacking up !
Report newoldboy November 7, 2009 11:32 AM GMT
... ANOTHER white wash yesterday ...who's cleaning up then ?!!
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