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Trader11
26 Oct 09 15:24
Joined:
Date Joined: 02 Jul 07
| Topic/replies: 956 | Blogger: Trader11's blog
Interesting approach.

Click the British flag for english version.

http://lay5.blogspot.com
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Report dlarssonf October 26, 2009 3:33 PM GMT
what is your bank. I see one of the screenshots is a 1 tick trade of 2000 on valencia v barcelona

surely you are not using your whole bank to win 11 quid?

good luck with your venture though and I will add you to my fav's
Report Trader11 October 26, 2009 3:36 PM GMT
larsson,

no, thats not my full bank. but when you are scalping u r not risking your bank, you need a stop loss, mine is 3 ticks, sometimes 2. wich means you risk a very little % of your bank.

anyways, hope you enjoy it and find it useful.
Report dlarssonf October 26, 2009 3:38 PM GMT
I am aware of that mate, but what happens if the internet fails or as has happened recently the la liga matches suddenly are suspended and you can't get out of the market? You will lose the 2,000 then?

And what is your full bank?
Report Hull October 26, 2009 3:48 PM GMT
hhmmmmmmmm no response
Report dlarssonf October 26, 2009 3:50 PM GMT
i know hull , i was wondering about the lack of reply's
Report Trader11 October 26, 2009 4:09 PM GMT
hold on, I did reply, it didnt show up.

again:

I have a back up for internet or pwer failure.
And u r right about spanish games, I dont have a plan for that.
My bank is not as much as others but I built a bank big enough to scalp odds pre match, started with 500.
Report dlarssonf October 26, 2009 4:12 PM GMT
I am not inquiring the size of your bank to compare with others, more to see what % you are risking.

I am not trying to have a go, I just think scalping is great for a while, but its the old small gain, small gain , small gain, huge loss method that leads to disater.

Anyhow best of luck as I said and I will follow with interest
Report Rocket to the FACE October 26, 2009 4:20 PM GMT
Damn, it isn't in English. I was looking forward to it as well :(
Report Rocket to the FACE October 26, 2009 4:21 PM GMT
Haha, I'm such a t*t.
Report Trader11 October 26, 2009 4:22 PM GMT
I disagree.

why would you have many small winnings and a big loss??

As long as you dont go in play, u r safe. Remember this is pre match.
Yes, true, sometimes I do in play trading, thats another business and not scalping.

Honestly, I have tried many things, scalping the horses not possible for me, Im not good at that. Scalping tennis, I dont know the sport. Scalping football 1x2 and unders/overs, yes thanks, I know what Im doing.

I can accept a maximum 1% lose. Which gives me room for several ticks, but I rarely go beyond a 3 ticks lose.
In regards of winnings, sometimes I cut it immediatelly on 1 or 2 ticks, sometimes I let it ride if the trend is still there.

Thanks for comment.
Report cabbage October 26, 2009 4:29 PM GMT
A moment will eventually come when you find your position compromised because of a number of possible reasons, and that is when the big loss is possible/probable
Report Trader11 October 26, 2009 4:36 PM GMT
I have had those moments, just cut the losses and move on. Dont really know why would I encounter such a bad moment that would not allow me to get out whithin my comfort zone. I have had redbooks too, sure I had, but the idea is to have more greenbooks.
I mean I didnt start yesterday, been doing this for a good while and along with my short odds bets (that you can see in the blog too) is providing a steady grow of bank.

Now... I will agree with cabbages that it happens with horses, u see the odds jumping 5 or 7 ticks in a split second. But it doesnt happens with football pre match.
Report sevey October 26, 2009 4:53 PM GMT
trader11 pre football games 1 click could mean 5 units eg 3.10 3.15 so if you are trading 3k on a game its 30 quid a unit up or down
short prices as you know 1 click 1 unit is that how you play it?
Report JPG October 26, 2009 5:25 PM GMT
Trader11 26 Oct 17:36

I have had those moments, just cut the losses and move on. Dont really know why would I encounter such a bad moment that would not allow me to get out whithin my comfort zone. I have had redbooks too, sure I had, but the idea is to have more greenbooks.
I mean I didnt start yesterday, been doing this for a good while and along with my short odds bets (that you can see in the blog too) is providing a steady grow of bank.

Now... I will agree with cabbages that it happens with horses, u see the odds jumping 5 or 7 ticks in a split second. But it doesnt happens with football pre match.


Not that Im questioning your apporach but Im curious as to what you would have done if you had backed Liverpool at 1.95 Friday lunchtime last week (before the Sunderland game) then quickly find Liverpool at 2.18 to lay (and still drifting) after news of Torres and Gerrards injuries being announced.

Thats at least a 14 tick movement against you (then ended up drifting to 2.34 before cliiping back to 2.24). What would you have done in this instance?
Report Trader11 October 26, 2009 5:36 PM GMT
sevey 26 Oct 17:53


trader11 pre football games 1 click could mean 5 units eg 3.10 3.15 so if you are trading 3k on a game its 30 quid a unit up or down
short prices as you know 1 click 1 unit is that how you play it?


sevey,

the tick size is different as you know. I dont trade 3K no way. and in the example that you gave from 3.10 to 3.15 you win 45.24 comm included.
from 3.15 to 3.10 you lose 48.39
to trade with 3k you need a big bank to allow you 3 ticks allowance.
If you see the screenshots u will see that most of my trades are short prices, so I have plenty of room to trade out if things get ugly, and still not lose more than 1% of my bank.
Report Trader11 October 26, 2009 5:40 PM GMT
JPG,

I never open a position before 1 hour of the game.
As a rule of thumb I start trading only about 50 mins before the game, this way I avoid news like you said.
And if such a drift happens during the time Im trading, then I cut the losses on 3 ticks, surely I will be able to get the reason for the drift and get onboard in the opposite direction.
That is a well known strategy for horses that used to work well early days with not so much volatility in the market, nowadays it is useless and I recommend not to trade horses, well, at least not good for me.
Report JPG October 26, 2009 5:45 PM GMT
Trader11,

Thanks for the response.

If you're exclusively trading in the hour before KO, then like you said, you are far less likely to suffer at the scenario I mentioned.

If you're redding up (if necessary) before KO and not letting any "I/R Gremlins" get to you, then thats a solid angle of your approach.

However, dont you find it extremely awkward to get filled at the prices you want with relatively larger amounts in front of you at each tick size?
Report sevey October 26, 2009 5:52 PM GMT
trader11 1hour before a game some people open 2 /3 days before a game there is enough information out there to get in early doors
high st bookmakers are the best to get the ball rolling
because i think the answer is in the question sometimes with them
Report sevey October 26, 2009 6:03 PM GMT
trader11 were is the screen shots?
Report Trader11 October 26, 2009 6:13 PM GMT
JPG 26 Oct 18:45


Trader11,

Thanks for the response.

If you're exclusively trading in the hour before KO, then like you said, you are far less likely to suffer at the scenario I mentioned.

If you're redding up (if necessary) before KO and not letting any "I/R Gremlins" get to you, then thats a solid angle of your approach.

However, dont you find it extremely awkward to get filled at the prices you want with relatively larger amounts in front of you at each tick size?


Closing the trade before KO is a GOLDEN RULE.
Red or green, close the feck of it.

I dont care what is in front if Im already matched and the trend is with me, I place an order, and if it is filled and the trend is ok, then I carry on waiting for some minutes.

By the way JPG, read some posts from you, very interesting.
Feel free to post comments on the blog, even if it is english it is welcome.
Report Trader11 October 26, 2009 6:16 PM GMT
sevey 26 Oct 18:52


trader11 1hour before a game some people open 2 /3 days before a game there is enough information out there to get in early doors
high st bookmakers are the best to get the ball rolling
because i think the answer is in the question sometimes with them


Not a good approach IMO.
Read what JPG said above about sudden drifts. What you do if you get hooked in one of those?? It will wipe out all your previous winnings.
Just wait for 1 hour before KO.

Screenshots are in the blog, link in first post of this thread.

Thanks for your feedback here.
Report sevey October 26, 2009 6:26 PM GMT
trader11
thanks
Report sevey October 27, 2009 11:34 AM GMT
trader11 were are you?
Report Lori October 27, 2009 11:47 AM GMT

As long as you dont go in play, u r safe. Remember this is pre match.


You weren't on here the day of the bomb scare then? (seriously) when the whole site was suspended for a while.
Report Trader11 October 27, 2009 12:04 PM GMT
Lori,

Yes, I remember that day, but it was not only 1 day, it happened several times. But Im talking about normal circumstances.

Sevey, here I am.
Report sevey October 27, 2009 12:29 PM GMT
trader11 that web site is no good to me thanks anyway
Report Trader11 October 28, 2009 11:02 PM GMT
I just posted something interesting on the blog, it is about trading.
And there is a nice discussion on the football forum, thread "how much have you won/lost today" by jonnieg.
Report liamcol October 29, 2009 1:25 AM GMT
Hi, Trader, just had a look, couple of questions.
How much of a bank are you using?
I noticed you made a loss of 293 on the alcorcon v real madrid match odds, and won 229 on that game on the over 4.5 goals.
Report Trader11 October 29, 2009 2:02 PM GMT
hi liam,

bank is a private thing I guess, but it is enough to allow me to trade for ticks and make pre match trades, or else IR trades at certain points of the games in which the prices move faster allowing you several quick trades.
I will see if I can explain more about that in the blog as many persons are interested.
Real Madrid game a goal came in the wrong moment and screw me up a bit, but thanksfully my over 4.5 trade came out good.
Thanks.
Report liamcol October 29, 2009 2:15 PM GMT
Ok, that was what i didn't understand, i thought you were playing pre match and redding or greening before kick off?
Trying to green up or scalp is just another way of gambling anyway, isn't it?
The market may move against you as often as it goes for you.
I would guess like any strategy, knowledge of the market is key, e.g. you have the home team as a 2.0 shot and can lay at 1.9, you lay and then back back when the price lengthens.
I am not having a go at you btw, just interested to see yours and others views on this, gl.
Report Trader11 October 29, 2009 2:22 PM GMT
no problem liam.
u right trading is also gambling, u want to properly guess the movement of the market.
read this whole thread as we already talk a bit about scalping pre match.
also have a look at the many scalping screenshots I put on the blog.
Report Trader11 October 30, 2009 4:11 PM GMT
Posted today's pick Porto to win at a whooping 1.21 :)
Wish me luck.
Report Trader11 November 1, 2009 3:59 PM GMT
Read my latest misfortune and unlucky day. FFS, dont trust online livescores.

http://lay5.blogspot.com/
Report Trader11 November 2, 2009 1:47 PM GMT
Ok, back to winning ways chaps. For those interested.
Report Lori November 3, 2009 1:40 AM GMT
Trader11 27 Oct 13:04
Lori,

Yes, I remember that day, but it was not only 1 day, it happened several times. But Im talking about normal circumstances.


the trouble is that it only takes one disaster with non-normal circumstances to wipe out your bank if you're going all-in all the time.
Report Monty's Wonderbra November 4, 2009 8:37 AM GMT
how do you read indications from the market to suggest which way the market is moving?

I assume if there is more money waiting to back than there is to lay then the price will move in and vice versa? Or is it not quite as simple as that?
Report Trader11 November 4, 2009 12:09 PM GMT
Hi Lori,

u r right, but any sensible person will not trade all in.
Myself I do it with around 30% of my bank in every trade, and I want to make it clear here (not for u, because I know u already know) for newbies that it doesnt means u r risking that amount at all.
Report Trader11 November 4, 2009 12:15 PM GMT
monty,

no, is not as easy as that. if it was that easy everybody would do it.
read the "concepts of trading" in the blog.
Report buzzer November 4, 2009 12:21 PM GMT
trading all in well before the off, with appropriate back ups such as other accounts and isp providers/phone back up, is acceptable to build a small bank
Report Monty's Wonderbra November 4, 2009 1:32 PM GMT
Have read it mate. Interesting. So it has to be a combination of that and informed guesswork then. Setting up a lay and back 1 tick apart on a stable market is pretty easy. Getting them 2 or 3 ticks apart is slightly different.

Fwiw without looking I can envisage the Lyon price to be backed in throughout today. Was 2.54 last I looked.
Report Trader11 November 5, 2009 1:59 AM GMT
monty,

u r spot on.

Updated the blog with what happened to be my best day.
Report dlarssonf November 5, 2009 7:15 AM GMT
Trader11 04 Nov 13:09
Hi Lori,

u r right, but any sensible person will not trade all in.
Myself I do it with around 30% of my bank in every trade, and I want to make it clear here (not for u, because I know u already know) for newbies that it doesnt means u r risking that amount at all.


no matter what if you put 30% of your bank on a trade , YOU ARE RISKING IT. I know you are going to say that you will trde out to reduce the exposure if things go against you but anything can happen as I have already said.

Your internet could collapse, your electricity could go, the suspend monkey / betfair can suspend a market at any given notice, so once the trade is placed the whole 30% is at risk
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