Southampton v Ipswich

Ipswich

I've decided Southampton... Good luck people.

I think Southampton are resigned to the fact that a top 2 finish is out of reach, Ipswich have the QPR game to fall back on. So NO BET.

LAY the 1-1 looks good to me. UTS.

.. Dont do anything silly now !!

very exciting, possibly the worst pair of defences I've seen ! Surprised it's only 2-2.

Not a great night for those that enjoy seeing
good defensive play.

Saints dont know the meaning of " shut up shop " hence the 1-1 lay with 30 mins to go looked good imo.

   Anyway, playoffs it is, still have to be favs for that imo.

I'd think they'd be favourites,

Still work to do of course.

Aye

Very little to choose between Boro and Soton imo.  I'd make whoever plays the 2nd leg at home the marginal faves

assuming Ipswich gain automatic promotion that is

... Possibly Clydebank, Saints manager and team has come on leaps and bounds since Jan 4-0 drubbing.

isn't it just a worn out  cliche playing the 2nd leg at home, if your going to get blown away in 2 legged tie ,its big odds on it,ll be in the away leg,so the coveted home tie becomes a dead rubber, even a draw or narrow defeat at home ,keeps the away 2nd leg alive,its like when it took English teams 20 yrs to cotton on that nil  v nil away in 1st leg in Europe wasn't a great result,
BORO a million for 2nd
long shot for 3rd
so I,d prefer us to finish 5th and play s,Hampton at home on the sat at 12 30,but maj of boro fans want 4th and away leg 1st

It's mathematics, not a cliche.  If the match goes to extra time you want to be at home 2nd leg

well as maj of boro fans think their better away from home ,why wouldn't they want to play  an extra 30 mins away ?

if that were true that would imply the betting is wrong every week.  +16 at home +9 away.  23 matches 0.3 goals per match.  Divisional average is +0.2.  So on actual goals adv they are ahead of the average

Premier League is + 0.26 so far this season.  L1 is + 0.35.  Probably just random variance

L2 is the lowest at + 0.17, if my quick hand calculations are correct.  Overall, over all 4 divisions about 0.25 HA, which ties in with the betting odds.

You also need to factor in that home teams play differently against them
compared to visiting riverside.



Boro / Southampton is a long journey

Home leg, home team no travel

Away leg both teams have made the same journey

Playing home leg 2nd less of an advantage if time
between legs is short.

There's only 3 days between legs, so potentially
advantage is greater in first home leg than second.

Of course the advantage of playing extra time and pelanties
at home could be huge.

In terms of a penalties in the PL, apparently over a sample of 1007 penalties (625 home and 382 away) 79.2% of home penalties were scored and 73.6% of away penalties.  So that would appear to favour the home team in a shoot out.  That would be conventional wisdom.

I'm not convinced myself that would apply to a shoot out tbh, because imo, the higher the pressure, the less I think HA is a factor. At a level of extreme mental pressure, such as shooting in biathlon or darts I think it's probably better to be not in front of your fans.  And there is no more pressure in football than a penalty shoot out.  Much more so than a penalty in normal play

I think home advantage could be greater in tired bodies feeding
off whatever support they can get.

Maybe stats are available for shootout, but forget anything
over 4 years ago as psychology is so much better understood
these days,

here's the current BORO fan mentality on X
after losing twice to cov and to Millwall at home,
here how it goes,we play better against the better sides and better away from home ,

yet their currently doing  arithmetic gymnastics working out how we can play DERBY at home in 2nd leg of play offs,instead of Southampton away in the 1st leg

Could be affected, too, by who scored the last equaliser
and momentum swing, which would be unknown when considering
Pre match. But might influence punting in running.

We don't know whether Hayden Hackney will be fit for the play offs and since he was named PFA CPOTS, whether he's fit to play or not must be a factor.

Boro might be better off losing to Wrexham and taking the rest.

Sunderland coasted into playoffs and reaped reward.

LIONS