Is it time to take the title challenge of Aston Villa seriously?

Two horse race...end of thread...

They are a good team, but there are so many good teams in the league
they will likely hit a sticky patch.

3rd would be a great finish, even from here,

Keep going, take another look after 10 more games,...

Very impressed by Man City lately and Arsenal last night (when they barely got out of second-gear to beat Everton) but I'm not convinced it will develop into a 2-horse race. Clubs like Villa stay in contention for the League about once in a decade - they have to make those years count.

Currently available at 30s, I would consider a bet if they add another 0,

Would be a great season if they are top 4.

Yes. Wait til end of Jan at least as they have v tough away fixtures next month.

One thing with them is they are massively outperforming their xG for and against figures. They should be bottom half based on this and it normally reverts to mean.

You certainly seem to see the world differently to most UB, i'll give you that

Arsenal have been average lately and created little last night, they had to rely on a brain fade by O'Brien to gift them the points. And don't forget the more than reasonable shout for a penalty the toffees had - similar incidents have resulted in VAR interventions recently and spot kicks awarded. The gunners also had immense luck in the week when the tailed off Wolves managed to put two in their own net to again gift them the points. They play Villa again in just over a week which will be interesting. If villa get a result there then they have to be taken seriously as title contenders.

City on the other hand have indeed been impressive of late and are scoring plenty, without relying on set pieces which Arsenal tend to do. On current form i would have them favourites.

no. It's not sustainable what they are doing and the poor summer recruitment/being strung by FFP will hinder them down the stretch

I reserve the right to change this opinion if Watkins finds his shooting boots again

Prolly not the best time to start a thread with Chelsea and Arsenal away their next two fixtures.  I backed them not to finish in the top 6, on the back of a small squad, European commitments and poor recruitment.  I think I've done my money, but they've been extraordinarily lucky this season to get to their current position, and it's a position they'd still need to improve on.

How have they been lucky Clyde?

No

Well on EXG they'd be 15/16th in the  table.  Their XGD is -5.  Yet somehow they are third. They've scored 10 goals from outside the box this season and conceded 1.  Only 2 other teams have scored more than 4.

Game 1 Newc (h) 0-0.  Newcastle the better team and you couldn't have argued had Newc won. 
Game 2 Brent (a) 0-1  Deserved something from this game.  Only game this season where they've been unlucky
Game 3 CP (h) 0-3  Deserved to lose but not by 3 goals
Game 4 Eve (a) 0-0  Comprehensively outplayed but somehow escape with a draw.  Could easily have lost by 2 or 3.
Game 5 Sun (a) 1-1  Sunderland down to 10 men early.  Cash scores a wonder goal but 10 men Sunderland deservedly equalise
Game 6 Ful (h) 3-1  Fulham well on top first quarter of the game.  Very unlucky to have a goal disallowed by VAR, and then a penalty disallowed from an outstretched arm by cash when the ball was going in.  Villa ride their initial fortune and end up deserving to win based on the rest of the game but could have been very different
Game 7 Burn (h) 2-1 A deserved win
Game 8 Spurs (a) 2-1 A game of few chances, Spurs create the better ones, but 2 strikes from outside the box secure the points for Villa.  Lucky to win.  Couldn't argue with a draw, but if there was a winner a poor Spurs deserved it more
Game 9 M City (h) 1-0 First good performance all season but fortunate to win. An even game and a wonder goal by Cash.  Late tap in for Haaland denied by marginal offside.
Villa had been easily a bottom half of the table team on performance up to this point.  But they've been much improved since 
Game 10 Liv (a) 0-2 Rogers hits the post from distance.  Villa play reasonably well and their standard is improving but Liverpool deserved to win
Game 11 Bour (h) 4-0 Two wonder goals and a fluke.  Martinez with a fantastic penalty save.  Scoreline is ridiculous.  On performance Villa just about deserve to win
Game 12 Leeds (a) 2-1 Free kick winner from Rogers.  An even game that Villa just about edged. 
Game 13 Wolves (h) 1-0 Another game like the previous one that Villa just about edged, but could have easily not.  They were poor consodering the opposition though.  Took a wonder goal from Kamara to win it.  A real 1 in 100 chance
Game 14 Arsenal (h) 2-1 Another game like the previous 2 that Villa just about edged.  Prolly their best performance of the season.  Saliba and Gabriel both missing and a last minute winner in injury time.  That's the way it's rolling
Game 15 Brighton (a) 4-3 Another game like the previous 3 that Villa just about edge.  A very good performance against a decent side from 2 goals down  Toss up between this and the Arsenal game for performance.
Game 16 West Ham (a) 3-2 Another game like the previous 4 that Villa just about edge, but West Ham can easily argue they deserved a draw.  In those sort of games you can get any result, but Villa are getting the 3 points in these gamesevery time.  Another blinder form Rogers and I seem to recall a very marginal offside denying WH an equaliser
Game 17 Man Utd (h) 2-1 A lucky win and another stunner for Rogers. Prolly the weakest Man Utd this season, especially with Fernandes getting injured.  Cunha misses a great chance for Man U late on to give them a draw which was the least they deserved.  A sixth 1 goal victory in a row for Villa, in 6 reasonably even games

Arsenal win the title end of

^kiss of  death

Dec 21, 2025 -- 8:31PM, DixieDean60 wrote:

You certainly seem to see the world differently to most UB, i'll give you that Arsenal have been average lately and created little last night, they had to rely on a brain fade by O'Brien to gift them the points. And don't forget the more than reasonable shout for a penalty the toffees had - similar incidents have resulted in VAR interventions recently and spot kicks awarded. The gunners also had immense luck in the week when the tailed off Wolves managed to put two in their own net to again gift them the points. They play Villa again in just over a week which will be interesting. If villa get a result there then they have to be taken seriously as title contenders.City on the other hand have indeed been impressive of late and are scoring plenty, without relying on set pieces which Arsenal tend to do. On current form i would have them favourites.

I generally argue (and bet) against received wisdom. Your points are good but I saw something else in the Everton v Arsenal game: Arsenal calibrated the effort needed to win the game to a nicety. That's a great gift for a manager to develop: Ferguson had it, Keegan didn't and possibly Wenger didn't although Arsenal then could not afford the luxury on not playing their best team for ninety minutes.

One other thing: You can lay Man City at 50 to be relegated. That must price in a danger of a punishment for financial rule-breaking. It's a 50/1 shot but take Man City out of the race and Villa may never have a better chance.

Dec 30   Arsenal v Aston Villa will tell us much more.

No doubt Arsenal will be in contention at the end.+

Morgan Rogers has netted seven goals from an xG total of just 2.86 in the Premier League this season, with his +4.14 xG overperformance the second-highest of any player across Europe's big five leagues, after only Harry Kane (+5.97).

Opta

Morgans been a money maker in the shots on target market recently.

if any team other than arsenal or man city win the league i will give you the money myself.

If Leicester could win so could Villa.  Is this season’s lot as moderate as they were in Leicester’s year?

Villa might need as many pelanties as Leicester got
and for other teams to implode as they did.


Leicester got 81 points, winning by 10 points.

Recently it's been a bit tougher at top end with
some epic battles before last year's cake walk for l'pool.
So these seasons do happen where lots of top teams
underperform



points total of 2nd place in every 38 game Prem season:

95/96: Newcastle, 78

96/97: Newcastle, 68

97/98: Man Utd, 77

98/99: Arsenal, 78

99/00: Arsenal, 73

00/01: Arsenal, 70

01/02: Liverpool, 80

02/03: Arsenal, 78

03/04: Chelsea, 79

04/05: Arsenal, 83

05/06: Man Utd, 83

06/07: Chelsea, 83

07/08: Chelsea, 85

08/09: Liverpool, 86

09/10: Man Utd, 85

10/11: Chelsea, 71

11/12: Man Utd, 89

12/13: Man City, 78

13/14: Liverpool, 84

14/15: Man City, 79

15/16: Arsenal, 71

16/17: Spurs, 86

17/18: Man Utd, 81

18/19: Liverpool, 97

19/20: Man City, 81

20/21: Man Utd, 74

21/22: Liverpool, 92

22/23: Arsenal, 84

23/24: Arsenal, 89

24/25: Arsenal, 74

liverpool 92pts and 97pts and didnt win it either year.incredible.

That is incredible, I agree.

It's a bit like an auction, 2 want same thing push each other
to higher level, no competition and price is lower.

Villa do seem to be the surprise package, but the juggernaut that is Man.C looks unstoppable to me.
Will the gunners go the distance ?
That is the question imo.

No way, Unai

Would be funny, considering Unai is ex-Arsenal, but can't see it myself. Two horse race, with Arsenal leading the way. I still feel that City have flaws. The January window could be telling though.

What Villa are doing this season is reminiscent of Emery's first year at Arsenal. He went on a 14 game unbeaten run in the PL, winning 10, while playing not so great and massively outperforming the underlying numbers. Auba scored 10 goals from 11 shots on target during this run. It reverted to mean and he finished the season needing 6 points from the last 5 games to get top 4 and he only got 4. Then lost the EL final 4-1 to Chelsea to miss out on CL again.

The way Arsenal are attacking lately reminds me a lot of how England attacked under Southgate. It was the same last season but not the previous two. Can't see them winning unless that changes. Eze and Gyok arrivals haven't made any difference up top from last season.

Like the Southgate analogy, but that's fairly
recent, and maybe they've slipped into it, because
of circumstance rather than by desire.

Once the starters return they likely open up.

Arteta's desperation to finally win the title will most likely cost Arsenal.

They were attacking like this all last season too, very slow ball progression vertically, allow the opposition to bed into a low block then attack a packed defence, over-reliance on corners for goals. Very little vertical play thru the middle, u-shaped passing out to one side back thru the midfield then out to the other wing like Southgate, players very static. I don't think Gyok is the answer, but I don't think that position is the main goal threat in his system. Kane was barely in big games under Southgate too playing like that.

It is very risk averse and in fairness that helps on the defensive side as there are fewer dangerous counter attacks. But he goes a goal down away at Sunderland, Chelsea, Villa and it changes, much more urgency and aggression in attack much more movement up top, and gets an equaliser relatively quickly, has all the momentum but immediately goes back to risk-averse. Playing like that they will drop points against the better sides, which they did in those games. It's too cautious and it leads to all his best players having to play too many minutes as games are on a knife-edge until the very end, even against Wolves. Attacking players are good enough to get him out of sight within an hour against most sides if he lets them off the leash a bit more, then rest players earlier and give the squad players more minutes too.

I think once Gabriel comes back he will play the same but have his big threat from corners back, that's where he sees more goals coming from.

Morgan Rogers for Player of the Season if you think Villa might be top 3?

This game defines Villa's title shot:- win here and the sky is the limit.

23% possession so far, no shots, no corners

Terrible lack of ambition

1-1

1-2 Villa seem calm and dont panic.....

Encapsulates Villa's season so far that match.

Arsenal v Villa 20:15

Fear Villa may be angling for a draw again with their starting lineup tomorrow.

Arsenal/Villa @ 60/1 may be worth a go with BetFred

66/1 - sorry

Not necessarily a "must win", but absolutely a " must not lose" game.
Wouldn't mind watching this one
Will be interesting to see how the result effects title mkts.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2025/dec/29/aston-villa-chelsea-winning-run-title-race-newsletter

"The last nine of those 11 wins in a row have been by a single goal. They’ve kept a clean sheet in only one of them. They’ve had the better xG in only six of those games and in two of those their xG was better by 0.2 or less. Their last five away Premier League games have been won after going behind. This shouldn’t be sustainable, but everybody’s been saying that for weeks and Villa keep on winning. The question is whether results will decline to match performances or whether performances could rise to match results.

Coming from behind is not just a trait of this season. Over the past three seasons no side has won more points from losing positions than Villa’s 54; 18 of those have come this season, 50% more than the team second in that list, Sunderland. This season, Villa substitutes have scored nine goals. Two things can perhaps be said of Villa under Unai Emery. Firstly, that they have a self-belief that means there is never a sense that a game is beyond them. That is, to an extent, self-perpetuating: the more they come from behind, the more they believe they can come from behind.

And secondly, that Emery is very adept at changing games from the bench. While Chelsea had the better of the xG 2.1-1.4, Villa were dominant from the moment just before the hour when Emery made a triple change. Watkins came on for Donyell Malen who, with limited service, had struggled to impose himself. Suddenly the ball was sticking, while Watkins’s movement behind the defensive line cause problems. Amadou Onana came on for Emi Buendía and Jadon Sancho came on for John McGinn. That both strengthened Villa’s centre by advancing Youri Tielemans, which in turn released Morgan Rogers, and gave them the width they had eschewed early on.

Chelsea had 10 shots to none before that change; Villa had 11 chances to four afterwards. By the end, Villa were in control and could easily have won more comfortably. Not for the first time this season, Enzo Maresca was unable to react as a game started to slide away from him; the impression remains that he is better at putting together a tactical plan when he has time to prepare than when reacting on the hoof.

Villa have also developed a happy habit of having players suddenly do something sensational to turn games. Rogers scored twice at Leeds and at West Ham and also got two at home against Manchester United. The sight of him working the ball onto his right foot and whipping a finish into the top corner has become a leitmotif for the season. It was Malen operating from the flank who turned the game after coming on at half-time at Leeds. Watkins changed the game at Stamford Bridge. The contribution of Ezri Konsa and Victor Lindelöf on Saturday, particularly in the first half, should not be overlooked. At the moment, it’s never the whole tea playing brilliantly, but sufficient individuals within it to get them the wins.

Can they keep going? They’re three points behind Arsenal and, on that logic, as the season approaches its halfway point they have to be considered part of the race, certainly more than the club world champions Chelsea or the defending champions Liverpool. Tuesday’s away game at Arsenal will be a major test of that. Villa beat Arsenal on the first weekend of December, a game in which Villa didn’t only have the better xG but registered an xG 40% higher than any other side had achieved against Arsenal in the league this season.

Arsenal have put together their own run of single-goal victories since, winning three in a row without ever being entirely convincing. Tuesday will be a test of both sides – and if Villa win a 12th game in a row, it would become almost impossible to deny their title credentials."

Mmmmmmmmmm...........
I think, at 21/1, a small saver on the Villa is called for.
If, IF, Villa beat arsenal, they  go joint top of the table.
With City having a game in hand, their next game being at Sunderland.
So many ifs buts and maybes. Lol.

Love to see Villa win proper fans.

Villa has 27,000 season ticket holders. That number is capped otherwise there would be more.

reality check

Villa fans suddenly believers in variance.

A lovely dose of Roger for them, right in the mush.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/10/sport/
aston-villa-premier-league-title-contender-spt-intl

Deja vu. Emery does this regularly and people talk about him being a great manager. Then go quiet until he does it again a couple of years later. He did it in his first season at Arsenal, unbeaten in 14 with 10 wins and Auba scoring 10 goals from 11 shots on target. Not sustainable and will very likely revert to mean over time. Villa should be 15th based on chances created and conceded.

He has never been anywhere near able to control games like every PL winner and proper PL challenger since Pep arrived. A very good but not top level manager.

Dec 30, 2025 -- 10:53PM, lurka wrote:

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/10/sport/aston-villa-premier-league-title-contender-spt-intlDeja vu. Emery does this regularly and people talk about him being a great manager. Then go quiet until he does it again a couple of years later. He did it in his first season at Arsenal, unbeaten in 14 with 10 wins and Auba scoring 10 goals from 11 shots on target. Not sustainable and will very likely revert to mean over time. Villa should be 15th based on chances created and conceded.He has never been anywhere near able to control games like every PL winner and proper PL challenger since Pep arrived. A very good but not top level manager.

Would you consider Arteta to be a "top level manager"?

Yes. Anyone who can build a squad take Pep + unlimited money to the last day is top level and miles ahead of the rest. Only Klopp has done it.

Pep's City are the best PL team ever and very likely cheating.

Arteta has spent over a billion quid since his arrival and won nothing (besides the FA Cup with Emery's team). He's actually spent more than Pep in that time period.  It's be interesting to see how Emery would do with such vast funds to spend.

Emery has made some good signings at Villa- Torres, Tielemans, Morgan Rogers, Onana etc. I would consider him to be more tactically astute than Arteta.

Chelsea and Man Utd both failed to win very winnable games, so it wasn't such a bad night for Villa after all.  And they don't have to play Arsenal again.  Whereas Man Utd have played Wolves twice.  Losing Kamara, Onana and Cash for this game, was equivalent to Arsenal losing Saliba and Gabriel for the Villa Park fixture.

If Villa qualify for the UCL again (which is prolly top 5), with their transfer restrictions, it will be a tremendous achievement.

A far more realistic target cb29, for they are
going so well they may as well tilt at the moon.

Arteta and Emery are both good managers and both
still improving.

Bit like grand prix racing as driving the right
car gets you titles.

If you are as good a driver as pep you pick which car
you want.

Villa have spent £700m since they got promoted in 2019, that is only one window more than Arteta has been at Arsenal.
The reasons Emery hasn't spent more are 1) he hasn't been there as long 2) they haven't had 3 years of CL football, only 1 and 3) 91% of their revenues are spent on wages (they've already been fined a much needed £9m by UEFA for this). Arsenal are just over 50% of revenue on wages.

Emery gambled the last spare cash to pay Rashford and Asencio wages to go for CL and lost that bet. About £360k a week between them. Now he's paying Sancho 200k a week this season. None of that counts as spending in your eyes as there's no fee. The Villa owners have pumped in about £700m since 2018 to fund all their spending and there's very little left. Then they cry about PSR rules. They spend in a different way, on wages more than fees, but they still spend far beyond their means.

Big clubs do not rate Emery the way you do.

Impressed with Arsenal - as their manager says, they adapt their game: no team better at playing for a set-piece but some decent footballers too.

Still, can't help rooting for Pep's team ..

Yeah, haaland goes in at £60 million, and
teams like villa have to pay more to attract big players.
No way he was signing for villa for 60 mil...

True. But they say you meet everybody twice, once on the way up and once on the way down.

Haaland cost City what a 150m player would have cost, that's what he was worth when they signed him. His agent negotiated low release clauses for all his moves until City (£5m, 20m, 60m) so that he could move freely and never be held to ransom. 

That just meant that the agent's fee was massive and so were the wages and bonuses. The fee is lower but the wages etc much higher than what a 150m player would get. The overall cost to City is about the same imo, just the player/agent gets a much larger chunk than the selling club normally does. He signed a new 9.5 year deal in Jan on a reported 500k a week basic salary. They got a lot of wages off their books to make way for his too (Jesus, Zinch, Fernandinho and Sterling). If he wanted to go to Villa they'd only have paid 60m to Dortmund too but wouldn't have been able to afford the rest.

Yeah, but net spend shows £60mil

Clever by his team, of course.

Villa just need to scout better. I've no sympathy for them whilst they thought it was stringent to buy the likes of Coutinho and other wasters who ended up not being consistent first team players and a millstone round their necks. I have little time for teams who do these FFP fiddles like Villa have either, consistent swap deals with Everton and Chelsea to try and cook the books. The deal for Harvey Elliott was very odd as well and it is the player that is left in the cold because Villa can't afford another player that Emery can't find a place for

They might end up another Leicester where they hold onto players for too long until their value drops