Betfair Community

Home › Sports › Football Forum › PREMIER LEAGUE HANDICAP (Exchange) 2025/26

Switch to Community Classic App Directory

Football

‹ back to topics

There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.

PREMIER LEAGUE HANDICAP (Exchange) 2025/26

tobermory

14 Aug 25 22:02

Joined:

Date Joined: 01 Mar 08

| Topic/replies: 63,824 | Blogger: tobermory's blog

12	Sunderland (+52)	22	Burnley (+51)
13.5	Chelsea (+12)	22	Fulham (+33)
14	Manchester United (+21)	22	West Ham (+35)
15	Everton (+33)	23	Arsenal (+3)
15.5	Brighton (+27)	24	Bournemouth (+32)
17.5	Crystal Palace (+33)	24	Brentford (+38)
18.5	Leeds (+43)	27	Manchester City (+3)
19	Tottenham (+22)	29	Wolves (+39)
19	Aston Villa (+22)	29	Liverpool (+0)
20	Nottingham Forest (+32)	36	Newcastle (+15)

Switch to Live View refresh Post Reply

Post your reply

sort by:

Show per page

Replies: 35

By:

tobermory When: 14 Aug 25 22:12

Very surprised to see Sunderland strong favourites for this

By:

Lifter When: 14 Aug 25 22:54

Normally around 100 gets it done, but I struggle to see any of them getting to 100 with any confidence.

By:

LoyalHoncho When: 14 Aug 25 22:56

I fancy Chelsea to improve by ten to twelve points this season. Purely conjecture of course but were they to do so their twelve point plus becomes huge.
Can’t be rssed tying up any dosh for nine months however.

By:

Lifter When: 14 Aug 25 22:56

I'm not too surprised tobermory. I'd say Sunderland getting to 48 points is in the realm of possibility, more so than West ham getting to 65 points or Wolves getting to 61 points, for example

By:

Lifter When: 14 Aug 25 22:57

Yeah I agree with Chelsea. I can see them mounting a title charge, and around 88 points should win this for them. The only worry is depth in defence and keeping those players fit

By:

Lifter When: 14 Aug 25 22:59

I also see Everton going close. 62+ points is coming easily, IMO, which puts them in the game.

By:

brassneck When: 14 Aug 25 23:42

i think THE MIGHTY GUNNERS will run away with the league this season .100 points no problem.

the real question is, can they win it without losing a game

By:

tobermory When: 14 Aug 25 23:48

I've tended to back promote teams over the years but they have been shocking recently.

The handicapper is basically trying to figure what real world points they will get and add a h'cap to make it up to 90(though as Lifter says 100 is ballpark figure to win it as probable they will underrate one team by 10pts)

So they are predicting 38 for Sunderland. 10 of the last 15 promoted teams failed to get 30pts. Not seeing why Sunderland are thought to be stronger than most recent promoted teams, or why punters think the handicap underrates them!

By:

tobermory When: 14 Aug 25 23:53

I don't think Everton have enough of a start. 48pts last season was their best in a while, they may improve on that but I can't see by a lot.

Chelsea were a class below the Top 3 last year but they have definitely upgraded in attack.

Man United 3rd favs with only 21pts makes no sense to me.

By:

Lifter When: 15 Aug 25 00:33

I just think the signings by Sunderland and Everton will improve them a lot. Everton signing the likes of drewsbury-hall, grealish, alcaraz, barry, improves them a lot, and now they have a steady ship

By:

Lifter When: 15 Aug 25 00:44

Sunderland have spent bucketloads. Diara 30m, Adringa 24m, Le Fee 24m, Talbi 20m, Xhaka, etc... I think the market sees them singing Xhaka and spending big, and is taking a gamble they pull-off a Forest. While they likely still get relegated, the possibility of a "better than poor" season is there and a a better chance than 80% of whats required from other teams IMO

By:

The Dragon When: 15 Aug 25 08:22

man city plus 3

By:

The Dragon When: 15 Aug 25 08:29

the stats are obviously based on last seasons finishing positions (apart from promoted teams) and that puts them all roughly in the same posi.

if i was having a bet -which i wont - i reckon villa. palace and fulham look the value

By:

kingscrewed When: 15 Aug 25 10:10

Have had a dabble after seeing this thread, main bet so far is a lay of Everton which I originally thought there handicap was a little short anyway and having thought about it can't see the new stadium assisting them, opposition players will be used to playing in modern stadia as opposed to the atmosphere Goodison could generate.

By:

----you-have-to-laugh--- When: 15 Aug 25 11:48

I always expect West ham to do well.

Win first game and they are 14 points off top...

By:

penzance When: 15 Aug 25 11:56

Backed 3 teams in trebles with teams in 2 other divisions.
West Ham,N'castle & Villa.(B366).

By:

tobermory When: 15 Aug 25 19:24

Aug 15, 2025 -- 12:44AM, Lifter wrote:

Sunderland have spent bucketloads. Diara 30m, Adringa 24m, Le Fee 24m, Talbi 20m, Xhaka, etc... I think the market sees them singing Xhaka and spending big, and is taking a gamble they pull-off a Forest. While they likely still get relegated, the possibility of a "better than poor" season is there and a a better chance than 80% of whats required from other teams IMO

Wouldn't teams with bigger expectations than Sunderland have signed those players if they were likely to be good PL players?

By:

tobermory When: 15 Aug 25 19:26

Grealish is very good but I can't see him flourishing under Moyes.

Likely he will subbed off on 76 mins in the first month, after 61 minutes by October and starting on the bench by December.

By:

tobermory When: 15 Aug 25 19:27

I've layed Sunderland, Man United to start with.

Small backs Bournemouth, Palace (@20) Fulham, West Ham

By:

Lifter When: 16 Aug 25 19:03

Aug 15, 2025 -- 7:24PM, tobermory wrote:

Aug 15, 2025 -- 12:44AM, Lifter wrote:Sunderland have spent bucketloads. Diara 30m, Adringa 24m, Le Fee 24m, Talbi 20m, Xhaka, etc... I think the market sees them singing Xhaka and spending big, and is taking a gamble they pull-off a Forest. While they likely still get relegated, the possibility of a "better than poor" season is there and a a better chance than 80% of whats required from other teams IMOWouldn't teams with bigger expectations than Sunderland have signed those players if they were likely to be good PL players?

I know what you’re saying, but don’t personally think it works like that — many promoted teams have managed to sign players that keep them up. Money talks and we don’t know what’s they’re expecting / telling players about their aspirations. A few of those signings walk 80% of prem teams Imo. I think the key is they don’t actually have to be “good” prem players or to go on a forest run or anything, but just enough for them to sneak into 15th, which is very live IMO. But yeah, we shall see haha

By:

DixieDean60 When: 16 Aug 25 22:38

tobermory - It's true that Everton got 48 points across the whole season, but 31 of those points came in the 19 games with Moyes back in charge, so that is no doubt what has been factored in for this year's handicap ratings.

By:

Lifter When: 17 Aug 25 01:34

Interesting stat, Dixie -- do that again and they will go close (I know football aint that easy)

By:

The Dragon When: 17 Aug 25 08:34

sunderland off to a flyer

By:

tobermory When: 01 Oct 25 02:05

After 6 games

1	Sunderland (+52)	63
2	Burnley(+51)	55
3	Leeds(+43)	51
4=	Brentford(+38)	45
4=	Crystal Palace(+33)	45
6	Bournemouth (+32)	43
7=	Fulham (+33)	41
7=	Everton(+33)	41
9	Wolves (+39)	40
10	West Ham (+35)	39
11	Nottingham Forest (+32)	37
12	Brighton (+27)	35
13	Tottenham (+22)	33
14=	Aston Villa (+22)	28
14=	Manchester United (+21)	28
16	Newcastle (15+)	21
17	Chelsea(+12)	20
18	Arsenal (+3)	16
19	Liverpool (+0)	15
20	Manchester City(+3)	13

5.6	Sunderland	29	Burnley
5.9	Crystal Palace	29	Fulham
8.4	Bournemouth	40	Liverpool
13.5	Leeds	70	Chelsea
16.5	Brighton	80	Nottingham Forest
17	Everton	85	Manchester City
20	Arsenal	130	Newcastle
22	Tottenham	160	West Ham
28	Manchester United	260	Aston Villa
28	Brentford	350	Wolves

By:

tobermory When: 02 Oct 25 23:40

Sunderland a red for me but a great start and entitled to be favs now.

Still, their first 6 games were about as easy as it can be. October fixtures tougher and December is brutal.

By:

tobermory When: 02 Oct 25 23:49

138	Sunderland	95	Burnley
267	Crystal Palace	246	Fulham
146	Bournemouth	56	Liverpool
157	Leeds	38	Chelsea
128	Brighton	167	Nottingham Forest
195	Everton	41	Manchester City
182	Arsenal	228	Newcastle
32	Tottenham	8	West Ham
209	Manchester United	196	Aston Villa
86	Brentford	48	Wolves

By:

mesmerised When: 03 Oct 25 00:02

I had West Ham on the handicap, Nuno to the rescue

By:

Clarky9 When: 04 Oct 25 09:21

Shows how clueless you're Mes

By:

mesmerised When: 04 Oct 25 09:31

Does it Nobby ? one guess before the season starts?

Quick, sign back in to the other clarke brother before anyone notices

By:

Clarky9 When: 04 Oct 25 09:33

West Ham ffs!

Anyone with a brain knew they were going to struggle. I backed Sunderland at 12/1.

By:

mesmerised When: 04 Oct 25 09:34

By:

tobermory When: 01 Dec 25 21:45

After 13 games

1	Sunderland (+52)	74
2	Burnley(+51)	61
3	Brentford(+38)	57
4	Leeds(+43)	54
5	Crystal Palace (+33)	53
6=	Bournemouth (+32)	51
6=	Everton (+33)	51
8	Fulham (+33)	50
9	Brighton (+27)	49
10=	West Ham (+35)	46
10=	Aston Villa (+22)	46
12	Nottingham Forest (+32)	44
13	Manchester United (+21)	42
14	Wolves (+39)	41
15	Tottenham (+22)	40
16	Chelsea(+12)	36
17=	Newcastle (15+)	33
17=	Arsenal (+3)	33
19	Manchester City(+3)	28
20	Liverpool (+0)	21

By:

tobermory When: 01 Dec 25 21:57

1.85	Sunderland	90	Chelsea
9	Brentford	90	Fulham
11	Crystal Palace	160	Burnley
18	Bournemouth	170	Nottingham Forest
19	Brighton	210	Manchester City
29	Arsenal	260	West Ham
36	Manchester United	350	Newcastle
55	Everton	460	Liverpool
85	Aston Villa	480	Tottenham
85	Leeds	900	Wolves

By:

tobermory When: 01 Dec 25 22:00

I was 90 red on Sunderland before last week's games, £100 red on Brentford and 100-200 green on the next few.

Was thinking to let it ride as Sunderland were starting a tough run of fixtures but decided to red out for a £15 loss.

A good result considering how much I underestimated Sunderland. Well done to the backers.

By:

tobermory When: 24 May 26 21:35

FINAL

1	Sunderland (+52)	106
2	Manchester United (+21)	92
3	Brentford(+38)	91
4	Leeds(+43)	90
5	Bournemouth (+32)	89
6	Arsenal (+3)	88
7	Aston Villa (+22)	87
8	Fulham(+33)	85
9	Everton(+33)	82
10	Manchester City(+3)	81
11	Brighton (+27)	80
12	Crystal Palace(+33)	78
13	Nottingham Forest (+32)	76
14	West Ham (+35)	74
15	Burnley(+51)	73
16=	Newcastle (15+)	64
16=	Chelsea(+12)	64
18	Tottenham (+22)	63
19	Liverpool (+0)	60
20	Wolves (+39)	59