I've Discovered a 30/1 winner

1 goal or more - Crawley > Maidenhead (a) > Cardiff > Millwall > Eastbourne Borough (a)

2 goals or more - Middlesbrough > Newcastle > Torquay (a) > Curzon > Walsall > Chesterfield



Torquay are currently 2nd in the National League South, there is a 6 way tussle of for the title and the only automatic promotion spot in the league, they along with Truro in first both have 86 points, 3rd place onwards are a point behind at least, which means it's really down to these two sides as to who goes up without going through the play offs. Truro have a goal difference of +30 and are playing relegation threatened St. Albans who currently occupy the the last spot in the relegation zone, they have a worse goal difference than Salisbury who are one spot above them and a single goal better off in the GD column.  So St. Albans have their own motivation. Torquay have a goal difference of +28, they need to score a few no doubt under the impression Truro will still win their game. Torquay are playing away to Hemel Hempstead who are 11th with nothing to play for, no hope of a play off spot, no chance of relegation, they also have the worst defensive record in the top 16 in the league, conceding 72 goals in 45 games. This is the last match day of the regular season, game week 46   
   
Curzon are 8th in the National League North, they are 1 spot outside of the play off positions, nudged out by Hereford in 7th place not even on goal difference as they're both equal, but on goals scored, they are four goals behind then in the GF column. 7th is not the only play off spot up for grabs however, Curzon could finish as high as fifth depending upon the results of Kings Lynn, Chorley and , Hereford, though Buxton and Spennymoor behind them in 9th and 10th respectively also have a chance of making it and are in the mix. Kings Lynn 79pts and +10, Chorley 76pts and +23, Herford 76 pts and +18, Curzon 76 pts and +18. Positions will no doubt de decided in the play offs by who scores the most goals this weekend. Curzon are playing Leamington at home, Leamington have nothing to play for in 16th place, safe from relegation, no hope of the play offs. This is the last match day of the regular season, game week 46   
   
Maidenhead are currently in the relegation zone in 22nd place, 4pts from safety with 2 games to go, they have an inferior goal difference to the teams above them and will be chasing goals this weekend against Rock Bottom Ebbsfleet away, Ebbsfleet who have 94 goals against them this season and are already down. One of Maidenhead's rivals for safety is Buxton, Buxton are playing Gateshead who are clinging onto the last play off spot further up the table so there's every chance they'll lose that, as it happens Maidenhead's last game of the season will be against Buxton next week so win here and win well against an unmotivated team with nothing to play for, and safety could be in their hands. One of their other rivals for safety is Dagenham and Redbridge who's last two matches are against two sides clambering over each other for one of the last remaining play off places so there's genuine reason for Maidenhead to believe they can stay up.   
   
Chesterfield are 10th in League 2, just three point off of a play off place with 2 games to go, they are playing already relegated, Rock bottom Morecambe at home. Above them in the table is Salford and Colchester who are playing each other this weekend so a draw could see them leapfrog them both with a win here, whilst Grimsby occupy the last play off spot and have a game against an MK  Dons side with nothing to play for, Grimsby's last game is against Wimbledon, fellow play hopefuls so Chesterfield should be fully motivated to go all out as they have a genuine chance of making the top 7.   
   
Millwall have an outside chance of making the Championship play offs, they are 8th with 63pts, 3pts off of Coventry in the last spot in 6th place. Millwall are playing Swansea this weekend at home, if we assume Coventry win or draw in the early kick off against Luton away then Swansea will have zero chance of making the play offs. Millwall however with a win will be looking at Bristol Rovers currently in 5th place and 4pts above them, Bristol are playing away to Leeds Monday night, Leeds who of course going for the title at home, Millwall will be assuming Bristol will lose that giving them a chance to make the top 6 on the final day.   
   
Middlesbrough are 1 spot outside of the play off places in 7th position, 4pts behind Bristol City in 5th, again, assuming Coventry win their early 12:30 game, Middlesbrough will be aiming for that last spot in place of Bristol, they have similar goal difference so will looking to score to attack as much as they can at home against a mid table Norwich  with nothing to play for.   
   
Newcastle played their 3rd game in 6 days against Villa and it showed, now they've had a full week off and are at home to relegated Ipswich, they have no injury concerns in the attacking areas either. 4th and 5th place can easily be decided by goal difference. With games coming up against Brighton, away plus Chelsea and Arsenal, it's obviously not just a must win, but must score a few type of game.   
   
Cardiff are effectively 4 points from safety given their far inferior goal difference but they still have an Chance of survival, they are playing at home against West Brom who realistically have no chance of making the play offs, they are 6 points off of 6th place with 6 points left to play for, but it would require at the very least, Coventry to lose their next two matches and Middlesbrough or Millwall gaining less than 4 points from their two remaining fixtures as well and then hoping they have better GD than Middlesbrough in particular, their chance is gone, and that's why they sacked the manager.  Cardiff mathematically can finish as high as 18th but realistically it's a tussle between them and Derby for safety. West Brom have conceded at least 1 goal in their last 13 away games, Cardiff have scored at least 1 goal at home in 10 of their last 11 matches.   
   
Crawley are 3 points from safety with 2 games to go, they are at home to Northampton in 18th and with nothing to play for, if they do survive it wont be on goal difference as they're GD is too inferior to Burton, the only team that could replace above the drop, however 1 goal will do to give themselves a chance to stay up on the last day of the season in terms of simply gaining the points they need - but really they're relying on Burton to not to win one of their last 3 matches, whilst unrealistic, they still have a chance and have motivation to score.   
   
Walsall are the highest scoring team in League 2, they've also scored 46 goals in 22 home games, they need to win to keep up their automatic promotional chances which could come down to goal difference, they currently sit in 4th, one place outside of the top 3, regardless of the results in the early 12:30 kick offs involving Port Vale (2 pts ahead of them) and Bradford (1pt ahead of them), if Walsall win their game they then go into the final round of matches with a chance of making the top 3 and avoiding having to go through the play off system. They are playing 21st place Accrington Stanley who are 6 points above the drop with 2 games left, realistically they are safe, for them to go down it would require them a swing of + 9 GD in their favour over 22nd placed Tranmere and +10 over 23rd placed Carlisle along with both of the aforementioned winning both of their remaining games which includes games against Salford (for Carlisle) and Crewed (for Tranmere), both of which are currently chasing a play of place.   
   
Eastbourne Borough are in 3rd in the National League south, they are 1 point behind Truro and Torquay, they need both of them to slip up to take the title and only automatic promotion spot, 2 goals are not necessary so 1 goal will suffice to give them a chance, they are playing 8th place Weston Super Mare who are 3 points off of the 7th placed Maidstone, the last play off place available but realistically they have no chance given their goal difference is +16 and Maidstone's is +32.   



Kind Regards.