Good under system

Millwall V Dag & R
Over 2.5 @ 1.7 Get on now!

2 goals very likely there but I'll take Under 2.5, thanks.

I’m the best in the world at getting unders. Unfortunately I’m an overs backer!

I'll cash out Millwall. Back 2.46 Lay 1.57. Easy money in 20 mins. Why doesn't eveyone trade unders?

Just found this comment "I have played over 2.5 goals for the last 11 years and even games that should have goals finished unders. From my betfair account i can see im down by 97k. When i try under 2.5 i lose on that as well. Where am i going wrong nearly 100k loss please help"

People like overs so much they're willing to lose 97 grand on them.

I agree with having a trading strategy Gaze. For me this poses more questions such as:
Which games to focus on (0-0 sp for example or own analysis), Potential  market liquidity
At which point to place bet (at start or say + 5 mins to avoid sucker punch goals and to observe play)
Target ROI and what success rate achieved at that level.
Where to set stop loss, after a goal, two goals, or no stop loss and hope for the best?

Any thoughts on this, anyone?

For trading it's probably best to find teams with low HT goals and specifically check their first 20 minute stats. If only 10% of their goals come from the first 20 mins then take the under and cash out at 20.
The riskier approach is like the Millwall game. Take the under when the market expects an over and hope for the best. Even huge favs don't score in the first 20 most of the time.

I don't believe in stop loss in this case. If my research says there's a 65% chance for the under at 1.75 and there's a goal in 10 minutes, I'm not going to cash out by backing Over at 1.35. If the pre-game bet was mathematically correct then doubling down after a goal makes more sense than cashhing out at terrible odds.

Thanks for your insights Gaze, they make sense. I'm trying to develop a trading strategy on football using minimum stakes and finding things very inconsistent. I actually did as you mentioned on the Millwall game, layed overs at 1.75 (timed 19:03) and cashed when Milwall won a free kick near the penalty box. back overs @2.30 (timed: 19:44) for a profit of 24. ROI was 24/75 or 32%. Only coppers as it was just a test but interesting although it would need a strike rate of over 75% to become profitable. I think the match started at 19:30 so the stake was in play for only 14 minutes.

75% is easily achievable when trading. With a half decent pre game research the odds are bound to swing your way.

I'll see how it works out. There are a couple of Italian games and league 1 games tonight which look promising. Will probably set the auto cash out to avoid tampering. Thanks again for your comments.

The first one came in
Como 20% after 20 minutes, 30% after 28 minutes
The others earmarked are Atalanta, Preston and Mansfield.

Yeah I'm also on Atalanta. Will check the other two.

They are FA cup not L1

those cup games look risky, I'll pass

After 20 minutes
Mansfield 17%
Preston 12%
Atalanta 19%

All could have been held for 30 mins with ROI between 25% and 30%. Preston consistently had the worst potential profit and first goal at 32 minutes.
At 20 mins the average of my 4 picks was 17% so would need 6/7 correct to break even.
At 30 minutes the 4 would have yielded around 110% so 4/5 would show a small profit.
This is a small sample, how many good picks would I make out of 100?
Como finished overs, will see where the others end.

Two overs and two unders at final score. That would have resulted in a loss as the two unders prices were less than evens. Just the teams I picked, perhaps I'm not very good at it but they were all in profit at 20 and at 30 minutes.

Only 12% roi for 20 scoreless minutes at Preston? Weird.
You did good, 4 out of 4 is a nice start. That's the beauty of trading, the final result doesn't matter. I've had many unders where all 3 goals went in after 85', it doesn't mean they were bad bets.

You can decide when to cash out on a case by case basis. I think 20 min is a good baseline. When you research says that HT should be scoreless or the game looks slow then you can wait until 43'.

For the Preston game I backed under 2.5 @1.65 and layed at 1.47. The short price meant a bigger % price movement would be required for the same ROI than a longer odds selection. Perhaps the game was livelier than the odds suggested which might have meant more punters laying the shortening unders prices. The bots though do seem to place an emphasis on time value expiry based on SP so the short SP is the more likely explanation.

Just two games today fit my criteria Everton and Arsenal. The latter is a surprisingly big price given spuds new found defensive capabilities and the way Arsenal like to squander chances. Ideally, I only need it for 20 minutes so I don't care about the final score unless locked in by an early goal.
I'll continue here until I have a set of 10 results then reassess.

Both games tonight came good. Everton gave 22% after 20 minutes, still no goal at HT
Arsenal gave a whopping 45% after 20 minutes, first goal at 24 minutes to Spurs.
Total return after 6 games is 135% or 1.35 points.

I'm going for two Spanish cup games today, Athletic Bilbao and Real Sociedad. Both low prices for unders this time. These are games 7 and 8.

Two more good results bringing the tally to 8-0
Bilbao yielded 13% and Real Soc 19%. I didn't get the best prices on these as I had to place the bets far too early due to other commitments but it will do.
New total 1.67 points.

It's my feeling that football punters back goals
so the unders price has to be value.

Finding where the value lies is holy grail stuff.

It's quite possible that the value is removed early, or
is spread across the 90-100 minutes.(or is removed late of course
, but, why, that's not the most sensible answer)

You could therefore have a great system...

Following how much value exists and when in a game it is removed
probably warrants a few graphs.

Good luck.

Thanks donnie, much appreciated.Credit must go to Gaze733 as I'm using his suggestions. This is a small sample  and I would like to see 100 results but that takes time. I could have been incredibly lucky with my selections and first indications show that break even point is 5/6 assuming the 6th is a complete wipeout. That is not necessarily the case even though taken to full time my results so far are O/U : 5/3. The other factor is that the time expiry curve used by the market bots calculates 45 minutes per goal for unders and 30 minutes for overs. So if you can get to H/T with just one goal against you, you can bale out at no loss more or less. I would think of such a stop loss at 40 minutes as the added extra time skews the game in favour of a late goal. Fortunately, I haven't had to test it yet.
As you probably remember, I've been trading Test Cricket for many years and I think this level of return if consistent is promising.
How to select the games? Well you have to work that out for yourself but so far I have used free resources available to everyone on the internet. I also used the match times on Flashscore as Betty's timings can sometimes be unreliable.

My thoughts that punters back goals might suggest
that larger turnover games may offer the best value.?

Of course there may already be others milking the value
and it may have been already taken

So graphs is the way forward, after data collection.

Test cricket has been good for draw layers. And has been
slow to correct itself.

It's funny you chose the spanish cup games because those were my only bets today except I took over 3.5 in both :D
Both had no goals for 20 mins and both hit overs so we both won.

Yes! at one time you could lay the draw at 5 even when no rain was forecast. Now it's around 3 times that price so the value has gone. There are other strategies but the main problem is the shortage of games now that biff-ball has taken over. This is why I have switched some attention to football although the markets, especially for the top leagues have been analysed to death with all the value squeezed out. You can sometimes find anomalies such as with the last three Tottenham games but that is rare and is quickly corrected. The lower leagues show more promise but liquidity is sometimes a problem allowing impossible spreads on minor markets.

I'm liking big overs recently. Over 3.5, 4.5, even 5.5. In certain spots it's much better value than simple over 2.5.

Well done Gaze, both had a 3 goal flurry around HT. The first goal breached the dam and changed the style of play as is necessary in a knock out competition.

I also had BTTS first half at 6.2 in the Osasuna game. Fortunately Athletico scored at 48'

I've considered laying under 2.5 and backing over 3.5 on the same games if goals are expected. Cash out the 2.5 to cover the stake and let the 3.5 run. Would it work, has anyone experience of it?

That should be backing under 2.5.

I think over 2.5 and btts are 2 popular markets.

Again my theory that goals being over bet suggests
there has to be value in u2.5.

Bookies have to skew their odds or else they'd be
skint after a few goal fests.

That feeds into 99% books on here.

Of course you'll run into the odd fixed match and
there are times when players are fatigued and so
goals probably more likely.

Young Mr Campbell thought he had a system, but
likely didn't test it enough before seeking investment.

It's way too complicated to back both over and under in the same game before the off and find value. Must have a lot of data to do something like that.

Mr Campbell signed for Notts County when there appeared to be good money available but was never considered fit enough to play. Consider that with Mr Eriksson who waived 2 million owing to him to save the club going out of existence.

Actually, Campbell did play in two games and left after 5 weeks.

https://www.goal.com/en-gb/lists/football-craziest-transfers-sol-campbell-bizarre-league-two-notts-county/blt80dbaf0577dd36b4#csecce47f477d2d7a5

Burnley V Sunderland looks nailed on for tomorrow but I don't suppose there will be much of a price for unders.

Good old brick wall Burnley, seven 0:0s in 21 games.

12/21 U1.5, decent odds there. You can grab 2.8 and it will probably be at 2.2 in 20 mins.

I think on balance I would reserve the 1.5 market for overs games. An early goal would lock you in for the duration whereas 2.5 leaves a get out of jail card at half time. You can back 0-0 at around 8/1 which seems a reasonable risk reward ratio for this game. I shall stick with the system though.

Two final selections today.
9)  Burnley
10) Espanyol

Valladolid hits over 63% of the time, last game 3-2, doesn't seem worth those odds.

Both games no score after 20 minutes, Burnley yielded a paltry 7% but to be fair it looked a lively start to the game with a big early error from the Burnley goalkeeper that might have resulted in a goal.
Espanyol yielded 16%  and so total yield after 10 games without a loss 190% or 1.90 points.

I took Burnley U1.5 at 2.8 and now cash out at 1.62, better than 7%.

OK, thanks for checking that, worth doing on this sort of game, even the 0.5 market if you have a strong heart.

Even the goal backers shied away from Burnley tonite.

Nice all the same for the system.

Spanish exchange prices

Igualada: €227
A Favor En Contra

Menos 0,5 Goles

1.5
€4,040
1.61
€12

Más 0,5 Goles

2.58
€1,171
3.1
€2,085

Damn I wanted to back 0-0 Burnley, 8 scoreless games in 22 now.

xg 0.69 to 2.86 and yet 0 goals again

0-0 was touch and go with two saved penalties towards the end. Both were controversial so "justice" was done but they should have been put away.

0-0 layers must've been mad at 2 missed penalties lol. That'll teach them not to lay 0-0 in Burnley games.

Take it, wins are stolen away often enough.

I have started tracking what happens if the over is drifting in a game with offensive teams. The results are so weird so far. 5 wins, 6 losses at avg odds 1.79. The losing games had 1; 1; 1; 1; 2; 2 goals. The winning ones had 6; 5; 5; 5; 4. Nurnberg is the next game. Back Under 2 and Over 4, free moni.

Here's one for you Gazer:

In the Singapore Premier League - Balestier Khalsa are on a run of 54 consecutive League Games of over 2.5 goals and also a run of 36 consecutive League Games x over 3.5 goals.

Betting £1 (and rolling over) for the 36 games would have landed you approx £500k (liquidity aside!).

If you are going to after-time some irrelevant stats - at least make them interesting ones!

Then the mug market should've raised the bar by half a goal.

I don't know why in games where both teams hit over 60-75% times the price on the over drifts, what are the mug layers thinking?

I checked their last game, Over 3.5 steamed from 1.62 to 1.38 and won again. Mug bookies thought 1.62 was a fair price for the worst defense in the world, lol!

Previous games Over 3.5 steamed from 1.5 to 1.2, 1.53 to 1.3, 1.62 to 1.36, all 3 won. The market is smarter than mug bookies clearly.

In fact the over steams in every single of their games and always hits, how much money do the bookies want to lose on that team's overs? xD

48-3 Over 3.5 since the start of the 2013 season, insane.

2023

Don't mention it - you're welcome!

That team is proof that the bookies are not almighty and their odds are often stupidly high, even in this era of advanced IT and AI. Logically they should open Over 3.5 at 1.25 in the next game to not lose money, but instead they will open it at 1.55, watch it steam to 1.25, lose money and act all surprised.

The days of getting 1.6+ (for more than ten quid) are long gone. It's still an amazing stat (imo) but the value has long gone. Amazing stats don't necessarily make amazing returns.

As usual price is the only thing that matters!

Scraping around for games that historically produce exceptionally low/high scores is a waste of time if it is priced accordingly. End of thread (imo).

Pinnacle had Balestier Khalsa Over 3.5 at 1.62 1 day before today's game. Then it steamed to 1.38. So the value is still there because bookies can't price up a total correctly.

It's frustrating to watch the run continue, especially today (after their seasonal break) but I can assure you whether the run continues or not, the prices have gone unless you are betting in tenners. It could well continue but my (financial) interest has gone. Today was particularly frustrating as my core interest is in First Half or Early Goals.

If I thought the value was still there, I wouldn't have given it to you. If you think the value is still there - good luck to you!

Why are you punting on footie, better than hoarses?

It's all just numbers on a screen. Snooker, Racing, Football, Tennis, Cricket, etc.

If you think there are points in time when those numbers are incorrect or are going to move in a certain direction - it's all the same.

I still play the Horse Racing markets but have never had much interest in National Hunt/Jump racing (from a betting perspective). I've had an interest in football (Goal Expectation and Goal Distribution) going back to the days of Spread Betting - First-Half goals, Second-Half goals, The relationship between 1st Half versus 2nd Half goals, Early Goals, Late Goals, "clustering", etc.

Betfair used to operate a "Time of First Goal" market back in the glory years, with the game divided into 10 minute chunks and it was license to print money if you knew what you were doing - but of course ironically like many of the "side markets", the lack of liquidity (in minor leagues) was both what made it great and then what eventually led them to remove it.

Obviously you can still play that market in a roundabout sort of way via other markets but it involves more time/work and also often involves giving back a chunk of value (again due to lack of liquidity).

I think that Singapore team has been involved a goal in the first 10 minutes in something like 35% of their last 60 league games. If you take it up to the first 20 minutes, it's near to 57%!

The Management19 Jan 25 12:39Joined: 27 Dec 00 | Topic/replies: 11,098 | Blogger: The Management's blog
Here's one for you Gazer:
In the Singapore Premier League - Balestier Khalsa are on a run of 54 consecutive League Games of over 2.5 goals and also a run of 36 consecutive League Games x over 3.5 goals.
Betting £1 (and rolling over) for the 36 games would have landed you approx £500k (liquidity aside!).
If you are going to after-time some irrelevant stats - at least make them interesting ones!


Balestier Khalsa today (at 11:45) - looking to achieve their 40th consecutive League Game producing over 3.5 goals.

2 hours to kick-off and the mighty Betfair has almost £5 matched in that market!

Over 2.5 First Half Goals looked unlikely today (the Unders was busted at 1.01/1.02) but with Goals (eventually) arriving on 37', 45' & 45+1' 

I think that's the 7th consecutive meeting between these two teams that has produced over 2.5 First Half Goals.

The Over 3.5 goals sneaks over the line in the 89th minute The price settled at about 1.50 just before kick off (when some liquidity finally arrived!), hitting a high of about 3.9 in running and having traded to good volume at 1.09/1.10 at half-time.

Balestier Khalsa (in the League) Consecutive sequence for over 2.5 goals now stands at 58 games.
Balestier Khalsa (in the League) Consecutive sequence for over 3.5 goals now stands at 40 games.

Next week (Friday 7th March) they are away at Geylang who sit second to BK in the total league goals table!

Half Time in today's match now - and only 2 x First Half Goals - but as reliable as clockwork, one of those goals comes in First Half Added Time.

On paper, today's game had the look of potential goals galore - but at kick-off was absolutely priced accordingly.

Just the 5 x 2nd half goals today and a total of 7 for the match. Nice to see the 90+9' goal towards the end meaning that a further goal was matched at 1.1x in both halves. Updated stats:

Balestier Khalsa (in the League) Consecutive sequence for over 2.5 match goals now stands at 59 games.
Balestier Khalsa (in the League) Consecutive sequence for over 3.5 match goals now stands at 41 games.

Bk's next two games are in the Cup, so the next League game now is not until Saturday 5th April when BK will host Tanjong Pagar, who are currently sitting 3rd is this seasons total league goals table!

The two cup games produced 3 & 6 goals respectively

Today's League game was interrupted (midway through the first half) by a storm - and Betfair seemingly couldn't be bothered with the match when play resumed!

But 6 goals today including the equaliser deep into stoppage time. Updated stats:

Balestier Khalsa (in the League) Consecutive sequence for over 2.5 match goals now stands at 60 games.
Balestier Khalsa (in the League) Consecutive sequence for over 3.5 match goals now stands at 42 games.

Next (league) match now not until 20th April (away at Tampines).

As outlined above - It was Balestier Khalsa's turn to have a rest week (there are 9 teams in the League, so 4 games each week and one team that sits out) but this weekend's two games in the Singapore Premier League incredibly produced two 0:0 draws

Zero 0:0 draws in this league throughout the whole of last season and previously only one this season so far (from 117 games) - and then two come back to back!

Not really relevant to my contributions to this thread (which revolve solely around goals in the Balestier Khalsa games) - but it does go to show how fickle the goals markets can be!

Struggling to keep up with the ever changing fixture list in Singapore - but it seems Balestier Khalsa are hosting Hougang United today (at 12:45) in the League.

About £2.50 has been matched on Betfair in the goals markets! - but looking at oddschecker, over 2.5 goals is available at a best price of 1/8 and over 3.5 goals is a best price of 4/11 (obviously the best prices are only available from scammers, casino & slot sites masquerading as bookmakers).

In case there was any lingering doubt about the value - it seems the bubble has well and truly burst on the goal prices - but still interesting to see if the run continues and it's always very interesting to see the time distribution of the goals.

I just noticed Denise's mob are offering a time of first goal market and 00.00-09:59 minutes is a derisory 7/4 - but remarkably that has landed 6 times from the last 10 h2h's between these two teams.

First goal came after 9 minutes and 35 seconds (imo), so 24 seconds to spare. No idea if the clocks I was watching were accurate and no idea if B365 paid out as I didn't bet on it.

Only 3 match goals though - so the run of Balestier Khalsa League Matches producing over 3.5 goals finally comes to an end after 42 consecutive League games.

The over 2.5 match goals goes marching on:

Balestier Khalsa (in the League) Consecutive sequence for over 2.5 match goals now stands at 61 games.

All a bit pointless now (from a betting perspective) but 5 League games still to come.

Just the 4 goals today - First goal nice and early again - scored in the 4th minute.

Also 0ver 2.5 First Half Goals landed again having looked unlikely (but rescued with Goals on 40' & 42').

The over 2.5 match goals goes marching on:

Balestier Khalsa (in the League) Consecutive sequence for over 2.5 match goals now stands at 62 games.

Yesterday's match finished with just the one goal in the 11th minute! The red card probably didn't help but tbf that doesn't normally have a huge impact on goals in this league.

Still an incredible run (62 consecutive Balestier Khalsa League games producing over 2.5 goals). It would have been nice to see them complete 2 back-to-back seasons - but it wasn't to be. Over and out.