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Any insight on why Lorient are such a big price (8.6) away to Lille?
- Only 2 places (5pts) between them in the league
- Both picked up 8 points from the last 5 games
- Lorient have won 3 of the last 5 head-to-heads
- No recent new Lorient injuries
- No "Lorient are awful away & Lille are amazing at home" angle
Lorient are overperforming xG and Lille underperforming in the last 3 and 5 games (..to a net total of 1 goal per game in Lorient's favour). So, if I were to pick betweem them, then that alone would nudge me towards Lille.
...but it doesn't come close to explaning the odds, which give Lille a 73% likelihood of winning.
Are there any other big factors at play which aren't coming through in the numbers?
(I'm aware that Le Fee has announced that he's off in the summer, but I wouldn't expect that's having much effect on the odds for this weekend)
- Only 2 places (5pts) between them in the league
- Both picked up 8 points from the last 5 games
- Lorient have won 3 of the last 5 head-to-heads
- No recent new Lorient injuries
- No "Lorient are awful away & Lille are amazing at home" angle
Lorient are overperforming xG and Lille underperforming in the last 3 and 5 games (..to a net total of 1 goal per game in Lorient's favour). So, if I were to pick betweem them, then that alone would nudge me towards Lille.
...but it doesn't come close to explaning the odds, which give Lille a 73% likelihood of winning.
Are there any other big factors at play which aren't coming through in the numbers?
(I'm aware that Le Fee has announced that he's off in the summer, but I wouldn't expect that's having much effect on the odds for this weekend)
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Looks a little odd price I agree.
Another strange fixture fact - their last meeting Lorient won 2-1, despite being down to 10 men at the time of the winner! |
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I notice that Lorient have drifted out slightly (8.6 to 8.8) in the match odds since my post.
But have shortened up a little in the Asian Handicap. Lorient +1.0 @ 2.53 (in from 2.6) Lorient +1.25 @ 2.08 (in from 2.12) What would we put that down to? Simply a factor of a fairly illiquid market? (only £1288 traded in the match odds market and £759 traded on the Asian Handicap) Or something else? |
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Just catching up on this game
xG - Lille (1.96) v Lorient (0.1) Lille won 3-1, but it was 1-1 until the 89th minute Half of Lille's xG came after Lorient's 79th minute red card Lorient were no threat at all. Even their goal was as much an offensive block as it was a shot :) The xG numbers reflected Lille's dominance, but if you'd laid them and cashed out late you'd be on to a winner. |
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Keep them coming, Philby. The end result may not have been exactly as you hoped but you made a good case with sound reasoning at a great price.
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