ProbableBanker predictions

Actually just realised it was a mistake of me to BACK the Palace v United draw I should have LAYED it.  Got lucky there!

those selections look grim

I won £4.23 tonight, less the deficit yesterday of £2.76 meaning I won £1.47 over the two nights or about 4%.  Got a bit lucky backing a wrong outcome last night but hey ho.

Looking forward to the weekend again!

Morning all, that was the worst set of results for the model, since we started evaluating it, the first minus over a complete set of fixtures, though it was only 7 games and not a full set of 10. You'd be 36% down on your stakes if you'd followed it strictly this week, bringing the cumulative p/l down to +11%

Man City v Wolves	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	77.4%	15.6%	7.0%
PB's Implied Odds	1.29	6.41	14.29
Betfair Odds	1.24	7.2	16.5
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 4 - 1	Lose	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£-	£-	£-
P/L	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£30.00
Burnley v Leicester	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	10.0%	14.6%	75.4%
PB's Implied Odds	10	6.85	1.33
Betfair Odds	4.2	3.4	2.1
Implied recommendation	Lay	Lay	Back
End Result 1 - 1	Win	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£13.13	£-	£-	£13.13
P/L	£3.13	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£16.87
Sheff Utd v Aston Villa	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	17.6%	23.1%	59.3%
PB's Implied Odds	5.68	4.33	1.69
Betfair Odds	3.9	3.6	2.14
Implied recommendation	Lay	Lay	Back
End Result 1 - 0	Lose	Win	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£13.85	£-	£13.85
P/L	-£10.00	£3.85	-£10.00	-£16.15
Palace v Man Utd	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	4.7%	10.7%	84.6%
PB's Implied Odds	21.28	9.35	1.18
Betfair Odds	8.4	5	1.46
Implied recommendation	Lay	Lay	Back
End Result 0 - 0	Win	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£11.35	£-	£-	£11.35
P/L	£1.35	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£18.65
Fulham v Spurs	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	30.7%	34.7%	34.6%
PB's Implied Odds	3.26	2.88	2.89
Betfair Odds	4.1	3.65	2.04
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
End Result 0 - 1	Lose	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£-	£-	£-
P/L	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£30.00
West Brom v Everton	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	4.8%	12.7%	82.5%
PB's Implied Odds	20.83	7.87	1.21
Betfair Odds	4.4	3.85	1.93
Implied recommendation	Lay	Lay	Back
End Result 0 - 1	Win	Win	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£12.94	£13.51	£19.30	£45.75
P/L	£2.94	£3.51	£9.30	£15.75
Liverpool v Chelsea	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	32.5%	28.4%	39.1%
PB's Implied Odds	3.08	3.52	2.56
Betfair Odds	2.32	3.65	3.3
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 0 - 1	Win	Lose	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£17.58	£-	£33.00	£50.58
P/L	£7.58	-£10.00	£23.00	£20.58
	Home	Draw	Away	Totals
Total Stake	£70.00	£70.00	£70.00	£210.00
Total Return	£55.00	£27.36	£52.30	£134.66
Total p/l	-£15.00	-£42.64	-£17.70	-£75.34
% p/l	-21.4%	-60.9%	-25.3%	-35.9%
Previous Stakes	£530.00	£520.00	£530.00	£1,580.00
Previous Returns	£664.72	£473.24	£719.65	£1,857.61
Previous p/l	£134.72	[color=red]    -£46.76	£189.65	£277.61
Cumulative Stakes	£600.00	£590.00	£600.00	£1,790.00
Cumulative Returns	£719.72	£500.60	£771.95	£1,992.27
Cumulative p/l	£119.72	-£89.40	£171.95	£202.27
Cumulative % p/l	20.0%	-15.2%	28.7%	11.3%

Thanks EAW

Wish I could produce charts like that.  Their 11% overall figure is very good.  Let's see how they do this weekend.

Cheers

Worth looking into other ways of using the data- requiring a certain percentage 'edge' for example, so only targeting the ones that represent alleged strong value. Doing something with the selections that have two backs and one lay in the mix because you're creating a possible three loss outcome for that game, might be something else to consider.

I'm not convinced by the prices thrown out, but as something that flags up stuff out of line you never know when something is useful.

Those are very valid points, you certainly wouldn't do all these bets, some of them are not really representing any real value / edge but it was a way to simply test the numbers. The Man City game for example wouldn't be worth bothering with, as their prices are so close.

You'd have to have some further selection criteria for what you went with. As I've noted before, just ignoring all the 'draw' selections would improve the overall numbers a lot, so if I were following it, at the most simple level, I'd ignore their draw prices.

The last couple of days they had several big discrepancies with BF odds, which didn't pan out in their favour, whereas I think in the past they've been somewhat fortunate, with a couple of 'shock' wins saving the day but that just proves the point that you have to analyse over a period of time, to get a large enough sample, for some of these things to level out.

Games added so here we go again, hoping for better results than midweek :)

here they are with betfair odds from slightly earlier this morning..

Burnley v Arsenal	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	24.0%	30.50%	45.50%
PB's Implied Odds	4.17	3.28	2.2
Betfair Odds	5.9	3.95	1.71
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
Sheff Utd v Southampton	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	32.3%	32.9%	34.8%
PB's Implied Odds	3.1	3.04	2.87
Betfair Odds	3.75	3.55	2.18
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
Aston Villa v Wolves	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	35.1%	34.2%	30.2%
PB's Implied Odds	2.85	2.92	3.31
Betfair Odds	2.48	3.3	3.35
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
Brighton v Leicester	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	32.5%	33.7%	33.8%
PB's Implied Odds	3.08	2.97	2.96
Betfair Odds	2.66	3.25	3
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
West Brom v Newcastle	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	33.6%	34.0%	32.4%
PB's Implied Odds	2.98	2.94	3.09
Betfair Odds	2.56	3.3	3.15
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
Liverpool v Fulham	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	72.2%	19.2%	8.6%
PB's Implied Odds	1.39	5.21	11.63
Betfair Odds	1.44	5	9
Implied recommendation	Back	Lay	Lay
Man City v Man Utd	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	34.8%	34.8%	30.4%
PB's Implied Odds	2.87	2.87	3.29
Betfair Odds	1.51	4.7	7.6
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
Spurs v Palace	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	42.7%	32.1%	25.2%
PB's Implied Odds	2.34	3.12	3.97
Betfair Odds	1.51	4.7	7.6
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back

Done all of today's again 12 bets @ £2

Another very good day.  I won £7.10 for my £2 stakes or a rough percentage of 29%

Same again tomorrow I hope.

Sunday:

I've only layed West Brom in their game as the other two outcomes are very close to Betfair prices.   Haven't touched the Liverpool V Fulham Draw either.

So 9 bets @ £2

Call them home lads!

I'm backing all the away teams today for small amounts. There have been so many recently, it's where the value is, if there is any, imo. So I'm ignoring their liverpool-fulham numbers but I couldn't back Liverpool at 1.4-1.5 at home right now, even against Fulham.

Another very good weekend for their probabilities, up 36%. Only the Sheffield, Liverpool and Spurs games going the wrong way for them effectively. I did alright myself today with the Man U and Fulham wins, you must be a good % up again Lou, as well.

Burnley v Arsenal    [/b]   

Home

Draw

Away

Total

PB's Probability        ||        24.0%        ||        30.5%        ||        45.5%        ||                ||
PB's Implied Odds        ||        4.17        ||        3.28        ||        2.2        ||                ||
Betfair Odds        ||        5.9        ||        3.95        ||        1.71        ||                ||
Implied recommendation        ||        Back        ||        Back        ||        Lay        ||                ||
End Result 1 - 1        ||        Lose        ||        Win        ||        Win        ||                ||
Stake / Liability         ||         £10.00         ||         £10.00         ||         £10.00         ||         £30.00         ||
Return        ||         £-           ||         £39.50         ||         £24.08         ||         £63.58         ||
P/L        ||        -£10.00          ||         £29.50           ||         £14.08           ||         £33.58           ||
        ||                ||                ||                ||                ||
Sheff Utd v Southampton    [/b]    ||        Home        ||        Draw        ||        Away        ||        Total        ||
PB's Probability        ||        32.3%        ||        32.9%        ||        34.8%        ||                ||
PB's Implied Odds        ||        3.1        ||        3.04        ||        2.87        ||                ||
Betfair Odds        ||        3.75        ||        3.55        ||        2.18        ||                ||
Implied recommendation        ||        Back        ||        Back        ||        Lay        ||                ||
End Result 0 - 2        ||        Lose        ||        Lose        ||        Lose        ||                ||
Stake / Liability         ||         £10.00         ||         £10.00         ||         £10.00         ||         £30.00         ||
Return        ||         £-           ||         £-           ||         £-           ||         £-           ||
P/L        ||        -£10.00          ||        -£10.00          ||        -£10.00          ||        -£30.00          ||
        ||                ||                ||                ||                ||
Aston Villa v Wolves     [/b]    ||        Home        ||        Draw        ||        Away        ||        Total        ||
PB's Probability        ||        35.1%        ||        34.2%        ||        30.2%        ||                ||
PB's Implied Odds        ||        2.85        ||        2.92        ||        3.31        ||                ||
Betfair Odds        ||        2.48        ||        3.3        ||        3.35        ||                ||
Implied recommendation        ||        Lay        ||        Back        ||        Back        ||                ||
End Result 0 - 0        ||        Win        ||        Win        ||        Lose        ||                ||
Stake / Liability         ||         £10.00         ||         £10.00         ||         £10.00         ||         £30.00         ||
Return        ||         £16.76         ||         £33.00         ||         £-           ||         £49.76         ||
P/L        ||         £6.76           ||         £23.00           ||        -£10.00          ||         £19.76           ||
        ||                ||                ||                ||                ||
Brighton v Leicester    [/b]    ||        Home        ||        Draw        ||        Away        ||        Total        ||
PB's Probability        ||        32.5%        ||        33.7%        ||        33.8%        ||                ||
PB's Implied Odds        ||        3.08        ||        2.97        ||        2.96        ||                ||
Betfair Odds        ||        2.66        ||        3.25        ||        3        ||                ||
Implied recommendation        ||        Lay        ||        Back        ||        Back        ||                ||
End Result 1 - 2        ||        Win        ||        Lose        ||        Win        ||                ||
Stake / Liability         ||         £10.00         ||         £10.00         ||         £10.00         ||         £30.00         ||
Return        ||         £16.02         ||         £-           ||         £30.00         ||         £46.02         ||
P/L        ||         £6.02           ||        -£10.00          ||         £20.00           ||         £16.02           ||
        ||                ||                ||                ||                ||
West Brom v Newcastle    [/b]    ||        Home        ||        Draw        ||        Away        ||        Total        ||
PB's Probability        ||        33.6%        ||        34.0%        ||        32.4%        ||                ||
PB's Implied Odds        ||        2.98        ||        2.94        ||        3.09        ||                ||
Betfair Odds        ||        2.56        ||        3.3        ||        3.15        ||                ||
Implied recommendation        ||        Lay        ||        Back        ||        Back        ||                ||
End Result 0 - 0        ||        Win        ||        Win        ||        Lose        ||                ||
Stake / Liability         ||         £10.00         ||         £10.00         ||         £10.00         ||         £30.00         ||
Return        ||         £16.41         ||         £33.00         ||         £-           ||         £49.41         ||
P/L        ||         £6.41           ||         £23.00           ||        -£10.00          ||         £19.41           ||
        ||                ||                ||                ||                ||
Liverpool v Fulham    [/b]    ||        Home        ||        Draw        ||        Away        ||        Total        ||
PB's Probability        ||        72.2%        ||        19.2%        ||        8.6%        ||                ||
PB's Implied Odds        ||        1.39        ||        5.21        ||        11.63        ||                ||
Betfair Odds        ||        1.44        ||        5        ||        9        ||                ||
Implied recommendation        ||        Back        ||        Lay        ||        Lay        ||                ||
End Result 0 - 1        ||        Lose        ||        Win        ||        Lose        ||                ||
Stake / Liability         ||         £10.00         ||         £10.00         ||         £10.00         ||         £30.00         ||
Return        ||         £-           ||         £12.50         ||         £-           ||         £12.50         ||
P/L        ||        -£10.00          ||         £2.50           ||        -£10.00          ||        -£17.50          ||
        ||                ||                ||                ||                ||
Man City v Man Utd    [/b]    ||        Home        ||        Draw        ||        Away        ||        Total        ||
PB's Probability        ||        34.8%        ||        34.8%        ||        30.4%        ||                ||
PB's Implied Odds        ||        2.87        ||        2.87        ||        3.29        ||                ||
Betfair Odds        ||        1.51        ||        4.7        ||        7.6        ||                ||
Implied recommendation        ||        Lay        ||        Back        ||        Back        ||                ||
End Result 0 - 2        ||        Win        ||        Lose        ||        Win        ||                ||
Stake / Liability         ||         £10.00         ||         £10.00         ||         £10.00         ||         £30.00         ||
Return        ||         £29.61         ||         £-           ||         £76.00         ||         £105.61         ||
P/L        ||         £19.61           ||        -£10.00          ||         £66.00           ||         £75.61           ||
        ||                ||                ||                ||                ||
Spurs v Palace    [/b]    ||        Home        ||        Draw        ||        Away        ||        Total        ||
PB's Probability        ||        42.7%        ||        32.1%        ||        25.2%        ||                ||
PB's Implied Odds        ||        2.34        ||        3.12        ||        3.97        ||                ||
Betfair Odds        ||        1.51        ||        4.7        ||        7.6        ||                ||
Implied recommendation        ||        Lay        ||        Back        ||        Back        ||                ||
End Result 4 - 1        ||        Lose        ||        Lose        ||        Lose        ||                ||
Stake / Liability         ||         £10.00         ||         £10.00         ||         £10.00         ||         £30.00         ||
Return        ||         £-           ||         £-           ||         £-           ||         £-           ||
P/L        ||        -£10.00          ||        -£10.00          ||        -£10.00          ||        -£30.00          ||
        ||                ||                ||                ||                ||
        ||        Home        ||        Draw        ||        Away        ||        Totals        ||
Total Stake    [/b]    ||         £80.00         ||         £80.00         ||         £80.00         ||         £240.00         ||
Total Return    [/b]    ||         £78.80         ||         £118.00         ||         £130.08         ||         £326.88         ||
Total p/l    [/b]    ||        -£1.20          ||         £38.00           ||         £50.08           ||         £86.88           ||
% p/l    [/b]    ||        -1.5%         ||        47.5%          ||        62.6%          ||        36.2%         ||
        ||                ||                ||                ||                ||
Previous Stakes        ||         £600.00         ||         £590.00         ||         £600.00         ||         £1,790.00         ||
Previous Returns        ||         £719.72         ||         £500.60         ||         £771.95         ||         £1,992.27         ||
Previous p/l        ||         £119.72           ||        -£89.40          ||         £171.95           ||         £202.27           ||
        ||                ||                ||                ||                ||
Cumulative Stakes    [/b]    ||         £680.00         ||         £670.00         ||         £680.00         ||         £2,030.00         ||
Cumulative Returns    [/b]    ||         £798.52         ||         £618.60         ||         £902.03         ||         £2,319.15         ||
Cumulative p/l    [/b]    ||         £118.52           ||        -£51.40          ||         £222.03           ||         £289.15           ||
Cumulative % p/l    [/b]    ||        17.4%          ||        -7.7%         ||        32.7%          ||        14.2%         ||

think my formatting went a bit wrong there , try again..

Burnley v Arsenal	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	24.0%	30.5%	45.5%
PB's Implied Odds	4.17	3.28	2.2
Betfair Odds	5.9	3.95	1.71
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
End Result 1 - 1	Lose	Win	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£39.50	£24.08	£63.58
P/L	-£10.00	£29.50	£14.08	£33.58
Sheff Utd v Southampton	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	32.3%	32.9%	34.8%
PB's Implied Odds	3.1	3.04	2.87
Betfair Odds	3.75	3.55	2.18
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
End Result 0 - 2	Lose	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£-	£-	£-
P/L	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£30.00
Aston Villa v Wolves	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	35.1%	34.2%	30.2%
PB's Implied Odds	2.85	2.92	3.31
Betfair Odds	2.48	3.3	3.35
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 0 - 0	Win	Win	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£16.76	£33.00	£-	£49.76
P/L	£6.76	£23.00	-£10.00	£19.76
Brighton v Leicester	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	32.5%	33.7%	33.8%
PB's Implied Odds	3.08	2.97	2.96
Betfair Odds	2.66	3.25	3
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 1 - 2	Win	Lose	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£16.02	£-	£30.00	£46.02
P/L	£6.02	-£10.00	£20.00	£16.02
West Brom v Newcastle	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	33.6%	34.0%	32.4%
PB's Implied Odds	2.98	2.94	3.09
Betfair Odds	2.56	3.3	3.15
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 0 - 0	Win	Win	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£16.41	£33.00	£-	£49.41
P/L	£6.41	£23.00	-£10.00	£19.41
Liverpool v Fulham	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	72.2%	19.2%	8.6%
PB's Implied Odds	1.39	5.21	11.63
Betfair Odds	1.44	5	9
Implied recommendation	Back	Lay	Lay
End Result 0 - 1	Lose	Win	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£12.50	£-	£12.50
P/L	-£10.00	£2.50	-£10.00	-£17.50
Man City v Man Utd	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	34.8%	34.8%	30.4%
PB's Implied Odds	2.87	2.87	3.29
Betfair Odds	1.51	4.7	7.6
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 0 - 2	Win	Lose	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£29.61	£-	£76.00	£105.61
P/L	£19.61	-£10.00	£66.00	£75.61
Spurs v Palace	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	42.7%	32.1%	25.2%
PB's Implied Odds	2.34	3.12	3.97
Betfair Odds	1.51	4.7	7.6
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 4 - 1	Lose	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£-	£-	£-
P/L	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£30.00
	Home	Draw	Away	Totals
Total Stake	£80.00	£80.00	£80.00	£240.00
Total Return	£78.80	£118.00	£130.08	£326.88
Total p/l	-£1.20	£38.00	£50.08	£86.88
% p/l	-1.5%	47.5%	62.6%	36.2%
Previous Stakes	£600.00	£590.00	£600.00	£1,790.00
Previous Returns	£719.72	£500.60	£771.95	£1,992.27
Previous p/l	£119.72	-£89.40	£171.95	£202.27
Cumulative Stakes	£680.00	£670.00	£680.00	£2,030.00
Cumulative Returns	£798.52	£618.60	£902.03	£2,319.15
Cumulative p/l	£118.52	-£51.40	£222.03	£289.15
Cumulative % p/l	17.4%	-7.7%	32.7%	14.2%

Laid 8/1 Fulham not evens.

& laid 1/2 spurs

I must be reading your tables wrong because going back to the palace/united game you've got the draw losing a tenner instead of 40 so ignore me.

I'm always using £10 stake/liability for testing the %s though, so you'd win £20 laying spurs at 1/2 had they lost but they won so the lay is a losing bet.

The Fulham one is academic, because with minimum stakes you couldn't lay at 7 or 8/1 in the match odds on BF for only £10 liability. You'd have to do £2 and risk £14 or £16 but varying the stakes in the spreadsheet would defeat the object. Anyway there's other ways to do it, e.g back 'Liverpool or Draw' in the double chance market, if you really wanted to only put £2/£10 on.

OK I hadnt read the rules, thought each bet was to either back with a tenner or take a tenner out the lays, as I said ignore me

I lost £3.08 today due to a big loss on Fulham.  Won £7.10 yesterday so overall a win of £4.02 or about 9.5%

EAW

If you lay Fulham for £10 at about 8/1 doesn't that bet lose £80?  I lost almost £16 for a £2 stake?

He lays to lose a maximum of ten pounds Lou. So anything bigger than 5/1 is a thoeretical bet. So in that case to lose a tenner would be laying to £1.25.

yeah, I chose £10 at the beginning for simplicity, on week 1, not thinking long term about realism with big prices. It was always just to test the %s and I wasn't intending to still be going now but I suppose £100 might have been better, to mean the bets could all be put on for real. However, the % loss or gain will be the same and you could place smaller stakes via a 'double chance' back, rather than a match odds lay, if wanting to follow for small stakes.

If you use 'lay to win' rather than 'lay to lose' then you're always risking more on big prices and less on small ones and so it ends up not really being level stakes.

Yes EAW I undedrstand it now, thanks.

tonight's games, lifted off the website. I'll add the results in to the rest of the weekend in the morning. Personally I think the value is with the away teams again. I've laid Chelsea and backed Everton and Leeds, though wouldn't be at all surprised if West Ham won that.

Chelsea v Everton	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	34.8%	33.3%	31.9%
PB's Implied Odds	2.87	3	3.13
Betfair Odds	1.63	4.1	6.8
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
West Ham v Leeds	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	35.9%	37.6%	26.5%
PB's Implied Odds	2.79	2.66	3.77
Betfair Odds	2.14	3.75	3.65
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Lay

I've done all six bets again for £2 stakes.

EAW, those probabilities on your chart on Chelsea game are the "no-player-data" percentages of West Ham v Leeds game.. Chelsea - Everton percentages should be 62.6 - 20.1 - 17.3 aka back-lay-lay..
Hoping that those actual percentages won't hold if Lou already put money on the game :)

It does throw the odds completely out as they are a mile out from original so wouldn't have done the same bets but I'll just stick with them now even though Chelsea have just gone 1-0 up and I've layed them which I wouldn't have done so but hey ho.

I did LAY - BACK - BACK as per the original info when it should have been BACK - LAY - LAY, the total opposite!

PB, it's because you have the games the opposite way round on the website to the BF coupon and I didn't spot it, so yes I've inadvertently switched them but..

at the time I posted and took a screenshot

West Ham Leeds were 34.8, 33.3, 31.9
Chelsea Everton were 35.9, 37.6, 26.5

you've changed the chelsea %s completely since then to 62.6, 20.1 and 17.3

It would only alter Leeds from a Lay to a Back

Chelsea v Everton	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	35.9%	37.6%	26.5%
PB's Implied Odds	2.79	2.66	3.77
Betfair Odds	1.63	4.1	6.8
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
West Ham v Leeds	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	34.8%	33.3%	31.9%
PB's Implied Odds	2.87	3	3.13
Betfair Odds	2.14	3.75	3.65
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back

but with those new %s it is completely different..

Chelsea v Everton	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	62.6%	20.1%	17.3%
PB's Implied Odds	1.6	4.98	5.78
Betfair Odds	1.63	4.1	6.8
Implied recommendation	Back	Lay	Back
West Ham v Leeds	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability	34.4%	32.9%	32.7%
PB's Implied Odds	2.91	3.04	3.06
Betfair Odds	2.14	3.75	3.65
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back

if that's to do with you basing it on actual team news / line-ups, then it's amazing we haven't had an issue with that before. I notice the west ham %s have just changed based on actual line up data but not by much. for chelsea to go from 35.9 to 62% , or everton from 26% to 17% is some team news!?

EAW: Aha, you must have checked those percentages just after i added the "no-player-data" percentages and before "predicted-player-data" versions were added (which by the way were maybe just couple of minutes apart). Maybe you have noticed ( or not since we still haven't made a proper info page) but just to make sure: There are 3 versions of the probabilities of almost all games. The one deemed most accurate is the one visible without clicking a game row. Here's the order:

A. Most accurate: Probabilities composed with actual lineup data. If this is available you should see this little fully yellow man-figure at the end of the row.
B. Second most accurate: Probabilities composed with predicted missing players. Figure is only half yellow.
C. Basic percentages:  Probabilities composed without player data. Figure is gray.

The percentages don't usually change that much between A and B, but between A/B and C the change might be quite big since they are calculated differently, like in this case.
Anyhow you can see all versions by clicking the game row.

PBanker

So following your figures there's no point actually striking a bet until an hour before the start when the teams are in?

Lou
Ideally yes, if you can wait for lineup versions, that's what i would recommend. For Eng.Premier we get those versions online usually about 40-60 mins before game starts but in other leagues, say like Championship lineups might sometimes be announced too late to be used. But like i said above, the percentages composed with predicted players give you ALMOST as good results as 'lineup percentages' on long term average. There is a difference but not as big as one might think. I personally use both versions depending on whether i have time to wait for the line-ups.

But what comes to basic percentages (no player data used) one should consider these more like a placeholder for games that don't have any player data available yet, but are going to be updated later. They are not totally unusable, but there's a bigger gap on how well they fare against probabilities calculated with either kind of player data.

Since we still have not figured out how to make the whole website more intuitive on the differences between all the percentages, i have tried to upload the 'predicted-player-data' versions right after the 'no-player-data' versions to avoid these kind of situations.. only this time it was not fast enough!

The wrong odds went against me but I got away with one the other day so swings and roundabouts.  I lost £7.86 over the two Monday night games.

Didn't follow the game or look at the line ups but what could possibly have happened to change Chelsea from 36% to 63%

I think they must have signed a couple of superstar players and slotted them in seamlessly . Lou, you wouldn't have got much from yesterday, even with the new numbers in, or the original numbers the right way round, so not much damage done. In fact me pitting Leeds as a lay rather than a back will have saved you a couple of quid. Small comfort I know.

We're going to have to watch these little yellow men, if we carry on with this. It's not always going to be practical to wait until so close to k/o for the numbers, so at some point there's bound to be a decision to make about whether we take them at stage B or stage C. Clearly stage A is a no-no.

Burnley v Arsenal	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	24.0%	30.5%	45.5%
PB's Implied Odds	4.17	3.28	2.2
Betfair Odds	5.9	3.95	1.71
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
End Result 1 - 1	Lose	Win	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£39.50	£24.08	£63.58
P/L	-£10.00	£29.50	£14.08	£33.58
Sheff Utd v Southampton	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	32.3%	32.9%	34.8%
PB's Implied Odds	3.1	3.04	2.87
Betfair Odds	3.75	3.55	2.18
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
End Result 0 - 2	Lose	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£-	£-	£-
P/L	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£30.00
Aston Villa v Wolves	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	35.1%	34.2%	30.2%
PB's Implied Odds	2.85	2.92	3.31
Betfair Odds	2.48	3.3	3.35
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 0 - 0	Win	Win	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£16.76	£33.00	£-	£49.76
P/L	£6.76	£23.00	-£10.00	£19.76
Brighton v Leicester	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	32.5%	33.7%	33.8%
PB's Implied Odds	3.08	2.97	2.96
Betfair Odds	2.66	3.25	3
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 1 - 2	Win	Lose	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£16.02	£-	£30.00	£46.02
P/L	£6.02	-£10.00	£20.00	£16.02
West Brom v Newcastle	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	33.6%	34.0%	32.4%
PB's Implied Odds	2.98	2.94	3.09
Betfair Odds	2.56	3.3	3.15
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 0 - 0	Win	Win	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£16.41	£33.00	£-	£49.41
P/L	£6.41	£23.00	-£10.00	£19.41
Liverpool v Fulham	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	72.2%	19.2%	8.6%
PB's Implied Odds	1.39	5.21	11.63
Betfair Odds	1.44	5	9
Implied recommendation	Back	Lay	Lay
End Result 0 - 1	Lose	Win	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£12.50	£-	£12.50
P/L	-£10.00	£2.50	-£10.00	-£17.50
Man City v Man Utd	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	34.8%	34.8%	30.4%
PB's Implied Odds	2.87	2.87	3.29
Betfair Odds	1.51	4.7	7.6
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 0 - 2	Win	Lose	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£29.61	£-	£76.00	£105.61
P/L	£19.61	-£10.00	£66.00	£75.61
Spurs v Palace	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	42.7%	32.1%	25.2%
PB's Implied Odds	2.34	3.12	3.97
Betfair Odds	1.51	4.7	7.6
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 4 - 1	Lose	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£-	£-	£-
P/L	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£30.00
Chelsea v Everton	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	62.6%	20.1%	17.3%
PB's Implied Odds	1.6	4.98	5.78
Betfair Odds	1.63	4.1	6.8
Implied recommendation	Back	Lay	Back
End Result 2 - 0	Win	Win	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£16.30	£13.23	£-	£29.53
P/L	£6.30	£3.23	-£10.00	-£0.47
West Ham v Leeds	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability	34.4%	32.9%	32.7%
PB's Implied Odds	2.91	3.04	3.06
Betfair Odds	2.14	3.75	3.65
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 2 - 0	Lose	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£-	£-	£-
P/L	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£30.00
	Home	Draw	Away	Totals
Total Stake	£100.00	£100.00	£100.00	£300.00
Total Return	£95.10	£131.23	£130.08	£356.41
Total p/l	-£4.90	£31.23	£30.08	£56.41
% p/l	-4.9%	31.2%	30.1%	18.8%
Previous Stakes	£600.00	£590.00	£600.00	£1,790.00
Previous Returns	£719.72	£500.60	£771.95	£1,992.27
Previous p/l	£119.72	-£89.40	£171.95	£202.27
Cumulative Stakes	£700.00	£690.00	£700.00	£2,090.00
Cumulative Returns	£814.82	£631.83	£902.03	£2,348.68
Cumulative p/l	£114.82	-£58.17	£202.03	£258.68
Cumulative % p/l	16.4%	-8.4%	28.9%	12.4%

PBanker

Just to clarify then are you saying that once the teams are announced you change the percentages accordingly if required for EVERY match?

Lou
Yes, although some updates might take more time (even if lineups would be announced on time) because the way our automation works..
Just updated the weekend games with predicted missing players.

hmmmm think I'll wait till tomorrow an once teams come out.

i'm going to do the numbers now based on his predicted news, like we have done other weekends, then see what time it gets updated again. Let's face it, the only really fair test of this would be to take the final figures just before k/o and the BF price at the time but, realistically I won't be able to keep doing that every time, so most weekends I'll have to take a snapshot at one point or other. An alternative would be just to do the 'post match analysis' with his historical figures after the weekend, if we keep a record of the BF odds. I haven't made up my mind tbh, so i'll do it this way for now and see how it goes.

i've added in his rating key, A, B or C to avoid confusion. After my error switching games last time, I'd suggest you double check anything before placing real bets!

Leeds v Chelsea	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (B)*	22.8%	27.00%	50.20%
PB's Implied Odds	4.39	3.7	1.99
Betfair Odds	5.4	4.1	1.73
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
Palace v West Brom	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (B)*	36.0%	29.5%	34.5%
PB's Implied Odds	2.78	3.39	2.9
Betfair Odds	2.38	3.25	3.65
Implied recommendation	Lay	Lay	Back
Everton v Burnley	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (B)*	35.5%	30.4%	34.1%
PB's Implied Odds	2.82	3.29	2.93
Betfair Odds	2	3.5	4.6
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
Fulham v Man City	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (B)*	4.9%	11.7%	83.4%
PB's Implied Odds	20.41	8.55	1.2
Betfair Odds	11.5	5.4	1.36
Implied recommendation	Lay	Lay	Back
Southampton v Brighton	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (B)*	34.0%	33.3%	32.7%
PB's Implied Odds	2.94	3	3.06
Betfair Odds	3.05	3.25	2.66
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
Leicester v Sheff Utd	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (B)*	76.1%	15.9%	8.0%
PB's Implied Odds	1.31	6.29	12.5
Betfair Odds	1.55	4.4	7.6
Implied recommendation	Back	Lay	Lay
Arsenal v Spurs	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (B)*	35.8%	35.8%	28.4%
PB's Implied Odds	2.79	2.79	3.52
Betfair Odds	2.64	3.5	2.94
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Lay
Man Utd v West Ham	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (B)*	35.0%	30.4%	34.6%
PB's Implied Odds	2.86	3.29	2.89
Betfair Odds	1.95	3.65	4.6
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
*Key to PB ratings
A. Most accurate: Probabilities composed with actual lineup data.
B. Second most accurate: Probabilities composed with predicted missing players.
C. Basic percentages:  Probabilities composed without player data.

Leeds V Chelsea actual teams in, very little difference to original predictions so I'm on all three.

yeah, i'm laying chelsea anyway, not going so far as to back Leeds !

Leeds v Chelsea	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (A)*	20.5%	27.70%	51.80%
PB's Implied Odds	4.88	3.61	1.93
Betfair Odds	5.4	4	1.76
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay

Palace game updated..

Palace v West Brom	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (A)*	33.6%	32.1%	34.3%
PB's Implied Odds	2.98	3.12	2.92
Betfair Odds	2.42	3.2	3.55
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back

Yes I'm on but left the Draw as very close to true odds.

agreed, done the same

eveton game, numbers changed a bit for burnley and draw but same outcome. i've laid everton and backed burnley

Everton v Burnley	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (A)*	35.4%	35.5%	29.1%
PB's Implied Odds	2.82	2.82	3.44
Betfair Odds	2.1	3.4	4.3
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back

I agree with you EAW the Burnley odds are out but sticking with the formula I've done all three.

Man City just changed from 83% to 38%?  It's just 45 mins before the start and a couple of my bets already layed?  can't see PBP keeping this up, changing their percentages for every game under an hour before the start so how reliable is it. Why bother putting them up beforehand at all when it just confuses us?

nah, it's like he had the 3 and the 8 the wrong way round! same the other day with 63 and 36. i know it's just a coincidence really but how come we didn't get caught out with this the other weeks? actually now i think of it, there were some last minute changes but thought he said they were a bug?

Managed to get out of my bets so back with the three predictions: BACK FULHAM - BACK DRAW - LAY CITY

new figures. i'm not laying man c anyway, i think they'll win. pleased with the burnley win anyway.

Fulham v Man City	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (A)*	25.0%	36.3%	38.7%
PB's Implied Odds	4	2.75	2.58
Betfair Odds	9.6	4.9	1.43
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay

they should have stuck with the original City numbers, or something closer. That was too much of a swing there. Not that it did me any good, I wasn't confident enough to back them, when I saw the changed team and Fulham looked up for it at the start of the game.

Yes City game done for me but I still won £3.22 for £2 stakes over the four games so good again.

new figures for southampton game, minimal changes from B to A. i've laid brighton.

Southampton v Brighton	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (A)*	35.0%	32.3%	32.7%
PB's Implied Odds	2.86	3.1	3.06
Betfair Odds	3.05	3.25	2.66
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay

I missed that game.  Oh well will get the last ones.

probably going to sit this one out..

Leicester v Sheff Utd	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (A)*	76.3%	15.5%	8.2%
PB's Implied Odds	1.31	6.45	12.2
Betfair Odds	1.56	4.1	8
Implied recommendation	Back	Lay	Lay

I'm sticking with it, followed all three bets.

Backed the Draw and Layed Spurs in their game with Arsenal.  Left Arsenal bet alone as price exact.  Hope those figures don't change though as PRp hasn't changed anything yet since teams announced so going on their original figures.

i've laid arsenal but that's just because i fancy spurs to get something, rather than anything to do with PB. I'll post up his numbers again when he does them. wish i'd followed you to back Leicester! went for it in play at 1.75, just as it suspended for goal 1, before i got matched

Yes a nice Treble up for me in the Leicester game, won £5.04

Ten minutes till the off and still PB hasn't changed the percentages put up hours ago.  It's far too late in the day now as people would have had their bets.  I knew it was too much to ask for them to update the percentages once the teams were announced but don't see the point of following their percentages UNTIL the teams are announced as things could drastically change?

i know, i think he's mentioned before some automatic feed, so they've probably got links to another site, which don't always work. probably why he mentions 'a bug' in the past. they'll probably change them at some point but too late but it does make a bit of a mockery of testing the model, if you couldn't get the bets on in time.

it's on there now. would still have been lay-back-lay anyway

One minute before the off though?  Ridiculous.

not even. i stopped checking, after game had kicked off but had a look at ht

final game is up. i am going with the lay of man u and the back of west ham on this, though have my doubts. will you be able to go against your own team!?

Man Utd v West Ham	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (B)*	35.8%	29.3%	34.9%
PB's Implied Odds	2.79	3.41	2.87
Betfair Odds	1.84	3.75	5.2
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back

As it's my team I think I'll just leave it.  United with a couple of injuries up front too so leave it at that.  I think he'll change those United percentage though surely.  7/4 and West Ham about the same price?

On the day a profit of £ 5.04 so happy with that.

his little man is solid yellow, so that should be final now. can't say i agree with them being so close in % terms and neither does the market but it's often been like that with them. i do think man u maybe a little short but they've been backed in since i looked earlier when they were about evens.

results in, not such a good round for them again there. -25% for the 8 games. There were some striking %s again, notably with both Manchester sides' games but this time it didn't help them so much. That 'edge' is getting narrower, up 7% overall. If they do tomorrow's game I'll add it in.

Leeds v Chelsea	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability (A)*	20.5%	27.7%	51.8%
PB's Implied Odds	4.88	3.61	1.93
Betfair Odds	5.4	4	1.76
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
End Result 0 - 0	Lose	Win	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£40.00	£23.16	£63.16
P/L	-£10.00	£30.00	£13.16	£33.16
Palace v West Brom	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability (A)*	33.6%	32.1%	34.3%
PB's Implied Odds	2.98	3.12	2.92
Betfair Odds	2.42	3.2	3.55
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 1 - 0	Lose	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£-	£-	£-
P/L	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£30.00
Everton v Burnley	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability (A)*	35.4%	35.5%	29.1%
PB's Implied Odds	2.82	2.82	3.44
Betfair Odds	2.1	3.4	4.3
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 1 - 2	Win	Lose	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£19.09	£-	£43.00	£62.09
P/L	£9.09	-£10.00	£33.00	£32.09
Fulham v Man City	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability (A)*	25.0%	36.3%	38.7%
PB's Implied Odds	4	2.75	2.58
Betfair Odds	9.6	4.9	1.43
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
End Result 0 - 3	Lose	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£-	£-	£-
P/L	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£30.00
Southampton v Brighton	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability (A)*	35.0%	32.3%	32.7%
PB's Implied Odds	2.86	3.1	3.06
Betfair Odds	3.05	3.25	2.66
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
End Result 1 - 2	Lose	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£-	£-	£-
P/L	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£30.00
Leicester v Sheff Utd	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability (A)*	76.3%	15.5%	8.2%
PB's Implied Odds	1.31	6.45	12.2
Betfair Odds	1.56	4.1	8
Implied recommendation	Back	Lay	Lay
End Result 5 - 0	Win	Win	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£15.60	£13.23	£11.43	£40.26
P/L	£5.60	£3.23	£1.43	£10.26
Arsenal v Spurs	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability (A)*	33.5%	33.1%	33.4%
PB's Implied Odds	2.99	3.02	2.99
Betfair Odds	2.76	3.4	2.86
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Lay
End Result 2 - 1	Lose	Lose	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£-	£15.38	£15.38
P/L	-£10.00	-£10.00	£5.38	-£14.62
Man Utd v West Ham	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability (A)*	35.8%	29.3%	34.9%
PB's Implied Odds	2.79	3.41	2.87
Betfair Odds	1.84	3.75	5.2
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 1 - 0	Lose	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£-	£-	£-
P/L	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£30.00
	Home	Draw	Away	Totals
Total Stake	£80.00	£80.00	£80.00	£240.00
Total Return	£34.69	£53.23	£92.97	£180.89
Total p/l	-£45.31	-£26.77	£12.97	-£59.11
% p/l	-56.6%	-33.5%	16.2%	-24.6%
Previous Stakes	£600.00	£590.00	£600.00	£1,790.00
Previous Returns	£719.72	£500.60	£771.95	£1,992.27
Previous p/l	£119.72	-£89.40	£171.95	£202.27
Cumulative Stakes	£680.00	£670.00	£680.00	£2,030.00
Cumulative Returns	£754.41	£553.83	£864.92	£2,173.16
Cumulative p/l	£74.41	-£116.17	£184.92	£143.16
Cumulative % p/l	10.9%	-17.3%	27.2%	7.1%
*Key to PB rating basis
A Actual Line up
B Predicted Line up
C No Player data

EAW

Thanks as ever

moral of tye story is lay draws and back aways

well the 'Dragon method' would have certainly worked on the Fulham game last night . Unfortunately I backed Fulham . Anyway, here is PB's 'Morning Line' for the weekend premier league games. He's got them upside down again, so, as usual, please double check my handiwork before placing any bets. Not assessed these for myself yet.

Brighton v Newcastle	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (B)*	34.8%	30.70%	34.50%
PB's Implied Odds	2.87	3.26	2.9
Betfair Odds	1.7	3.65	6.8
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
West Ham v Arsenal	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (B)*	37.1%	30.4%	32.5%
PB's Implied Odds	2.7	3.29	3.08
Betfair Odds	2.98	3.55	2.56
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
Aston Villa v Spurs	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (B)*	32.9%	32.6%	34.5%
PB's Implied Odds	3.04	3.07	2.9
Betfair Odds	3.2	3.5	2.48
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
*Key to PB rating basis
A. Actual Line Up
B. Predicted Line Up
C. No Player Data

EAW

I've dropped out from following them.  Percentages are shown now then when the teams are announced a 6/4 shot could become 2/7?

I'll give it a miss.  Probably have a look to see how they've done but that's my lot.

Hi Lou, that's fine, it was more hassle than it was worth last week, with the last minute changes. I'll do the tables for these 3 and then let it drop. With the international break it's as good as time as any and, as we get to the end of the season things will get more erratic anyway.

I think it's interesting what they are doing but I don't trust the %s enough to blindly follow them and the wild last minute swings are not confidence inspiring. We get that team news is important but the swings are too great, implies there's something not quite right with the underlying ratings data, or the underlying ratings data is insignificant in their model.

EAW

Had a good run lately with my 'Scores' bet.  Today I've done Hamburg @ 6/4.  They are Evens to win Outright.

that's good to hear, I see you got a winner there at 2-0. My picks this last week have been shocking. i've kept the bank afloat with some in play trading but my match odds bets pre k/o been bad since last saturday. I will lay brighton later, so that should guarantee them a win

followed the tipsters this morning...they are ****, better off using a monkey!

^ there's no such thing as a successful/publicly available betting system, it's common sense anyone making profit with a system would not be sharing it, anyone selling tips is just a chancer, anyone buying tips is just a mug.

To be fair they're not selling anything just advertising their reckonings on their web page.  It's just one page.

EAW

Feyenoord at 7pm.  2/5 to win (6/5) massive difference.

i'm on the feyenoord one now as well, think it's a reasonable shout, all things considered. emmen not lost in last 4 but they are bottom

Exactly ..... let's see Feyenoord get 4?

EAW

Bit unlucky yesterday.

Today Vitesse Arnhem are 4/6    ............... (5/4)

yeah, i am ashamed to admit i greened at 1-0, was afraid of the draw from the recent form. i'm keeping my powder dry today for the arsenal lay. arsenal fans can rest assured of a win though, as i'm on a roll of about 7 incorrect premier league match odds bets atm

Ok good luck.  My team have now played about 40 mins and it's still 0-0 which is ok.

just looked at the site, if im reading it right theyve got leverkusen an 82% chance, implied odds of 1.23, just had a wee back of them at 2.18, away to kick off

1-0 down after 4 mins

keyboard

Yes we've found some of their percentages are an absolute mile out.  How can a team they make 2/9 roughly be 11/10 on here?

ah right, the first prediction had them 37.8, 2nd 82.8, 3rd 81.2...maybe they thought hertha were going to play with 10 men

just the 3-0 at half time, though i fully expect when i return there will have been an incredible 2nd half comeback

same with man city the other day. that's the thing with the team selections / player data, there must be something really lacking in the underlying ratings but then why post them at all.

i might actually get my arsenal lay!

doing anything on the villa - spurs game? i thought spurs were going to be shorter and i was tempted to lay but not so much at 2.5

Aston Villa v Spurs	Home	Draw	Away
PB's Probability (B)*	29.8%	35.1%	35.1%
PB's Implied Odds	3.36	2.85	2.85
Betfair Odds	3.1	3.5	2.52
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Lay

as promised, here is data incorporating the 3 game from this weekend. Their %s would have steered you in the right direction on the West Ham game but not the other two. Will probably stop doing this from now on, as I think our interest has waned, along with their "profit margin" of late . Still they'd be up 6% over the period we looked at, so no harm done.

Brighton v Newcastle	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability (A)*	34.6%	31.2%	34.2%
PB's Implied Odds	2.89	3.21	2.92
Betfair Odds	1.7	3.65	6.8
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Back
End Result 3 - 0	Lose	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£-	£-	£-
P/L	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£30.00
West Ham v Arsenal	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability (A)*	35.7%	29.1%	35.2%
PB's Implied Odds	2.8	3.44	2.84
Betfair Odds	3.65	3.6	2.2
Implied recommendation	Back	Back	Lay
End Result 3 - 3	Lose	Win	Win
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£-	£36.00	£18.33	£54.33
P/L	-£10.00	£26.00	£8.33	£24.33
Aston Villa v Spurs	Home	Draw	Away	Total
PB's Probability (A)*	29.8%	35.1%	35.1%
PB's Implied Odds	3.36	2.85	2.85
Betfair Odds	3.1	3.5	2.52
Implied recommendation	Lay	Back	Lay
End Result 0 - 2	Win	Lose	Lose
Stake / Liability	£10.00	£10.00	£10.00	£30.00
Return	£14.76	£-	£-	£14.76
P/L	£4.76	-£10.00	-£10.00	-£15.24
	Home	Draw	Away	Totals
Total Stake	£30.00	£30.00	£30.00	£90.00
Total Return	£14.76	£36.00	£18.33	£69.09
Total p/l	-£15.24	£6.00	-£11.67	-£20.91
% p/l	-50.8%	20.0%	-38.9%	-23.2%
Previous Stakes	£680.00	£670.00	£680.00	£2,030.00
Previous Returns	£754.41	£553.83	£864.92	£2,173.16
Previous p/l	£74.41	-£116.17	£184.92	£143.16
Cumulative Stakes	£710.00	£700.00	£710.00	£2,120.00
Cumulative Returns	£769.17	£589.83	£883.25	£2,242.25
Cumulative p/l	£59.17	-£110.17	£173.25	£122.25
Cumulative % p/l	8.3%	-15.7%	24.4%	5.8%
*Key to PB rating basis
A Actual Line up
B Predicted Line up
C No Player data

New predictions now available for 17. - 18.4 games.

New predictions now available for weekend games.

New predictions now available for 8. - 9.5 games.

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