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Philby_Walsh
20 Aug 20 11:38
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Date Joined: 10 Jun 04
| Topic/replies: 13 | Blogger: Philby_Walsh's blog
A little over 3 weeks to the first games of the new season.

Bet365, SkyBet, William Hill, BetVictor, BetFred have all posted odds in the Top Scorer market (e/w, 4 places @ 1/4 odds)

Who do you fancy?  (Salah, Auba, Kane & Augero are the shortest odds - in that order)

Any outside bets?

(I was on Ings e/w @ 200/1 ante-post last season. Only got an each-way payout as Ings fell one goal short - after missing a penalty against Bournemouth. He's 22/1 this season - which may have a potential transfer priced in)
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Report Philby_Walsh August 20, 2020 1:35 PM BST
I'll get things started. Any thoughts on these? Any other longer odds players worth considering?

Sterling @ 14/1 (4th highest scorer last season and joint 4th highest xG per 90mins). Improving his output season-by-season.

Gabriel Jesus @ 20/1 with Betvictor. Going on xG alone he should've been the top scorer last season. Scored 7 goals less than expected based on his xG stats. 20/1 looks good value if you reckon he was in a temporary dip finishing-wise. Doesn't look like City will buy another centre-forward and Aguero is a year older and picks up a lot of injuries. Still only 23 yrs old, so has plenty of scope for improvement.

Plus Raul Jimenez is interesting @ 28/1. His xG per 90mins is half that of Aguero or Jesus, but he plays more minutes than any other striker (equivalent of 3 games more than Vardy and 4+ games more than Salah). Linked with Juve (which would take him out of the mix completely) and Man Utd (which would cut his odds in half) so would be risky to back now

Wild card - Michail Antonio e/w (top 4 places) @ 150/1 (BetVictor) ->  finished the season with a purple patch and had the joint 4th highest xG per 90mins.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-goalscorer
Report darren_discombobulates_sports August 20, 2020 1:39 PM BST
Jamie Vardy or Timo Werner.
Report lurka August 20, 2020 4:07 PM BST
Bruno in with a shout if United keep getting all these penalties. Half joke half serious.
Report PorcupineorPineapple August 21, 2020 8:28 AM BST
Lots of questions going into this season. Big one for me is the effect on City given they've next to no summer break. May be good news for Jesus, but maybe not so much for Sterling who'll find he's playing less and Torres, Mahrez and Silva are all sharing time on the wings.

For me, Wolves aren't an attacking enough team to back Jimenez at those odds. Good player and plays lots but they're a pretty negative team.

I think Werner looks a bit of value. Chelsea have some attacking talent with Ziyech, Pulisic and possibly Havertz and Werner is a top striker.

Other one for me is Martial. Still a good player and has a good understanding with Fernandes. If he can stop diving in the box and stay on his feet to finish chances he could be the number nine Utd have been crying out for for years.
Report lybertyne August 21, 2020 12:19 PM BST
Eddie Nketiah
Report the_don August 21, 2020 1:07 PM BST
Early thoughts, Mane @ 14 over Salah @ 6, Werner and Jesus as mentioned could bag loads.

Fernandes best value for Utd, had Martial @100 last season, he's still not clinical enough.

Outsider is Hyeung Min Son @66 as long as there's no more national service and Mourinho doesn't play him at right back.
Report Super Hans August 21, 2020 6:05 PM BST
Requested the market twice on here.
But still no signSad
Hopefully they'll get it up before Christmas.
Report tobermory August 21, 2020 9:06 PM BST
I've backed Mane last 2 seasons (was a DH winner in 2019 and close up 2020)

Strange that he is always multiple times the odds of Salah, as 2017/18 was the only season Salah was way ahead of him. Every other season of their careers either close between them and arguably Mane overall the better goalscorer if you remove that outlier.
Report darren_discombobulates_sports August 21, 2020 9:10 PM BST
it's because Salah takes penalties.
Report tobermory August 21, 2020 9:20 PM BST
Salah has only a couple of goals more last two season even with the penalties.
Report tobermory August 21, 2020 9:22 PM BST
2019/20 - Salah 19-18 Mane

2018/19 - Salah 22-22 Mane
Report PorcupineorPineapple August 21, 2020 9:48 PM BST
2017/18 - Salah 32-10 Mane


I'm a huge fan of Sads and generally a fan of picking out statistical anomalies but that season is 33% of their total.
Report darren_discombobulates_sports August 21, 2020 10:05 PM BST
I know but that's why he's been shorter, he's on pens.
Report tobermory August 21, 2020 10:11 PM BST
Aren't the 2 more recent season more valid in comparisons ?

Also if you go back prior to 2017/18 you find Salah and Mane scoring a similar number of goals each season.

There is really only one season out of 6 that Salah has been way ahead of Mane, and it is not the most recent either. I agree that one season showed that Salah has a potential upside that should make him fav over Mane, but I can''t see why anyone would want to pick Salah at one thirds the odds.
Report darren_discombobulates_sports August 21, 2020 10:45 PM BST
I think he was sharing pens actually with Milner before this season, but seemed to be first choice this season especially as Milner taken more of a bench role now, he scored 3/3 pens last season, but Milner took another 2 when Salah had just been subbed,  both v Leicester home/away, so should have been 5/5. The season before they had 7 pens, Salah score 3/3, he gave Firmino one of them so he could get a hat trick. Maybe it's the expectation of Liverpool given how they attack and how often that penalty expectation is quite high and he's the pen taker, I agree though, 1/3 the odds of Mane is not right, Salah's general level has also dropped since his 32 goal wonder season imo.
Report lurka August 22, 2020 12:57 AM BST
Liverpool play completely differently to the season Salah got 32. They had Coutinho for half that year and used to create thru the midfield more with him. The last two seasons it's the full backs providing the bulk of the assists with very few coming from midfield or central areas, other than the front 3 players setting each other up. With much better full backs pushing up much higher providing width (VVD and the midfield providing cover) and Firmino dropping deep as a false 9, Salah and Mane naturally come inside into better goalscoring positions and don't have to stay wide as much. Mane's increased goal count coincides with Klopp changing from midfield creativity to the full backs with VVD allowing them to bomb on more.

Mane played 6 or 7 games less than Salah that year and has improved since that season while Salah has dipped a little you might say but it's more to do with the attack being less focused/reliant on him and more balanced on both sides. Both of them are wide attackers with assists coming from the full backs on both sides and from the other 2 up front. They should be roughly the same price, Salah a touch lower maybe. The 32 v 10 season is no comparison to the last 2.
Report darren_discombobulates_sports August 22, 2020 10:31 AM BST
he's general level is still lower, does not look as effective in front of goal, and this is relevant regards to the thread/market.
Report Super Hans August 23, 2020 7:27 PM BST
Market now up on here.
Report Philby_Walsh August 24, 2020 10:46 AM BST
Sterling the value pick in top scorer chase
Manchester City star Raheem Sterling has just produced a stellar season in front of goal, so it's a real shame that his campaign will probably be remembered for that awful miss against Lyon. Sterling bashed in 20 Premier League goals and got 30 in all competitions. In the top flight, he outscored both Mo Salah and club-mate Sergio Aguero, and in a team that creates as manay chances as City do, he looks a big price in the Sportsbook's Top Scorer market at 13/1.

Sadio Mane also looks to be overpriced at 14/1. The Liverpool forward plays almost every game, and has scored 40 league goals across the last two campaigns.

https://betting.betfair.com/football/premier-league/premier-league-2020-21-outright-tips-city-too-short-for-title-win-230820-140.html
Report JC1326 August 24, 2020 5:52 PM BST
Antonio Laugh Wouldn't take him at 150,000,000/1.
Report JC1326 August 24, 2020 5:53 PM BST

Aug 21, 2020 -- 9:28AM, PorcupineorPineapple wrote:


Lots of questions going into this season. Big one for me is the effect on City given they've next to no summer break. May be good news for Jesus, but maybe not so much for Sterling who'll find he's playing less and Torres, Mahrez and Silva are all sharing time on the wings.For me, Wolves aren't an attacking enough team to back Jimenez at those odds. Good player and plays lots but they're a pretty negative team.I think Werner looks a bit of value. Chelsea have some attacking talent with Ziyech, Pulisic and possibly Havertz and Werner is a top striker. Other one for me is Martial. Still a good player and has a good understanding with Fernandes. If he can stop diving in the box and stay on his feet to finish chances he could be the number nine Utd have been crying out for for years.


Summer break? They spent three months sat in their mansions...

Report loui August 26, 2020 1:43 PM BST
No mention for Kane, that's odd. If he stays injury free he wins It surely. Big if though.
Report If Dolphins Were Monkeys August 26, 2020 8:20 PM BST
Wouldn't it be pertinent to see which Managerial shrewdie snaps up Danny Welbeck Confused.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- August 26, 2020 9:41 PM BST
Could get Messy, but werner looks a decent bet, and pea.
Report lurka August 27, 2020 12:51 PM BST
Prob want to wait and see if City get Messi, prices aren't going to change much otherwise, so you won't be missing out. I don't think he'll leave but he'll prob go there if he does.
Report Super Hans August 28, 2020 1:41 PM BST
What price Messi TGS if he does join City?
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- August 28, 2020 3:47 PM BST
If he's on pens about 6/4
Report Scamp the man August 28, 2020 4:38 PM BST
Wonder if there is a price anywhere for Messi ...i know unlikely he will come this year
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