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betting_masta
14 Dec 19 11:52
Joined:
Date Joined: 21 Aug 03
| Topic/replies: 14,034 | Blogger: betting_masta's blog
SATURDAY 14TH DECEMBER 2019

Liverpool 2-0 Watford

Burnley 1-0 Newcastle

Chelsea  2-0  Bournemouth

Leicester     2-1 Norwich

Sheff Utd    2-1  Aston Villa

Southampton    1-1  West Ham


SUNDAY 15TH DECEMBER
Manchester United  2-1  Everton

Wolverhampton Wanderers    1-1  Tottenham Hotspur

Arsenal  1-2  Manchester City


MONDAY 16TH DECEMBER
Crystal Palace  1-1   Brighton & Hove Albion
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Report betting_masta December 14, 2019 11:57 AM GMT
best odds using OddsChecker

Liverpool 2-0 Watford

9.00

Burnley 1-0 Newcastle

7.00

Chelsea  2-0  Bournemouth

8.50

Leicester     2-1 Norwich

11.00

Sheff Utd    2-1  Aston Villa

9.50

Southampton    1-1  West Ham

8.50

Manchester United  2-1  Everton

9.00

Wolverhampton Wanderers    1-1  Tottenham Hotspur

7.50

Arsenal  1-2  Manchester City

10.50

Crystal Palace  1-1   Brighton & Hove Albion

7.00
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- December 14, 2019 12:53 PM GMT
Premier League predictions - week 17
....Result    ...Lawro    ....David baddiel ......you have to laugh
SATURDAY           
Liverpool v Watford    x-x    3-0    4-1    3-0
Burnley v Newcastle    x-x    2-0    2-2    1-1
Chelsea v Bournemouth    x-x    2-0    3-0    4-1
Leicester v Norwich    x-x    3-0    3-1    3-0
Sheff Utd v Aston Villa    x-x    2-1    1-0    2-0
Southampton v West Ham    x-x    2-1    2-2    2-3
SUNDAY           
Man Utd v Everton    x-x    2-0    2-1    3-1
Wolves v Tottenham    x-x    0-2    1-2    1-2
Arsenal v Man City    x-x    0-2    2-3    3-3
MONDAY           
Crystal Palace v Brighton    x-x    2-1    1-0   1-1
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- December 14, 2019 12:54 PM GMT
^^^^cut and paste from bbc, with mine tagged on end

good luck betting masta
Report Charlton2005 December 14, 2019 2:23 PM GMT
good start masta Grin
Report betting_masta December 14, 2019 4:21 PM GMT
looking decent if chelsea can open things up and if leicester can grab a winner
Report betting_masta December 14, 2019 4:29 PM GMT
by all accounts bournemouth just had a great chance to score

CLOSE!
Chelsea 0-0 Bournemouth

What a chance for Bournemouth!

Joshua King manages to get in behind the defence. He thinks about a shot on goal but the angle is tight so instead flicks it across for Dan Gosling, who looks certain to stab into the empty net but misses his shot.

Lucky, lucky escape for Chelsea.
Report betting_masta December 14, 2019 5:01 PM GMT
Liverpool 2-0 Watford

9.00 WON

Burnley 1-0 Newcastle

7.00 WON


Chelsea  2-0  Bournemouth

8.50

Leicester     2-1 Norwich

11.00

Sheff Utd    2-1  Aston Villa

9.50


--
two others were close, villa missed a late pen for 2-1, leicester could have nicked it
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- December 14, 2019 5:06 PM GMT
yeah, good stuff.
Report Charlton2005 December 14, 2019 5:31 PM GMT
well done masta
Report betting_masta December 15, 2019 4:18 PM GMT
very close again , 5 of the last 6 games out by the odd goal
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- December 16, 2019 9:39 PM GMT
3 right, good stuff, i got 3 too, easy game Happy...lol
Report Bish Bosher December 16, 2019 9:51 PM GMT
Top tipping Wink
Report leif December 16, 2019 9:51 PM GMT
Decent effort Masta Happy

Harder than it looks.

Average number of goals per game over the last few seasons averaging 2.7 to 2.8 so you're pitching it about right.

Getting the score right is another matter Laugh
Report betting_masta December 17, 2019 12:54 PM GMT
cheers guys

+13 profit after Round 1 - i will continue for a few weeks to see if there's something in the specific method, it's merely using the data and so i take no credit, it's just the data being interpreted and playing out

the odds suggest we should be getting 1-1.5 correct score per round so 3 is above average, we'll see if it is just "luck" - probably ;)

this xmas period could see some variance due to team changes etc but should even itself out

back on friday for round 2 Cool
Report Aspro December 17, 2019 2:51 PM GMT
Excellent start bm; I've been tracking Premiership correct scores at £10 per game (on paper) and after 5 weeks I'm £9.20 down via Exchange prices (allowing for commission) backing just what I 'feel' will be the correct score on each game. Will be good to see this one develop. Good luck!
Report betting_masta December 27, 2019 10:59 PM GMT
forgot about this for a few days --- picking it up again -- exchange price in brackets

Brighton 2-1 Bournemouth
(9.60)

Newcastle 1-1 Everton
(7.20)

Soton 1-1 Palace
(7.80)

Watford 2-1 Villa
(9.80)

Norwich 1-1 Spurs
(9.00)

West Ham 1-2 Leicester
(9.80)

Burnley 1-1 Man Utd
(8.00)

Arsenal 1-1 Chelsea
(8.80)

Liverpool 2-1 Wolves
(10.00)

Man City 3-1 Sheff Utd
(12.00)

average goals per game 2.60 -- about right -- let's see how it does
Report betting_masta December 29, 2019 9:15 PM GMT
2 correct again
+7.6

+20.6 after 2 rounds
Report betting_masta January 1, 2020 3:47 AM GMT
the experiment continues. i've formulated the calculations now, nothing complicated, should be even more accurate, just doing what the data says will happen
taking exchange price for most value

Brighton 1-1 Chelsea
8.40

Burnley 2-1 Aston Villa
9.40

Newcastle 1-2 Leicester
9.60

Soton 1-1 Tottenham
8.40

Watford 1-1 Wolves
7.20

Man City 2-1 Everton
10.50

Norwich 1-1 Palace
7.20

West Ham 1-1 Bournemouth
8.20

Arsenal 1-2 Man Utd
10.50

Liverpool 2-1 Sheff Utd
9.80

-good luck-
Report betting_masta January 1, 2020 3:50 AM GMT
projected avg goals per game is 2.50-- that's a bit lower than the average for the season in the premier league which is 2.81 so that tells me the model is slightly undershooting due to the rounding down. i've essentially taken the average for xG for the respective teams home/away, if anyone has any ideas to make the figure more accurate than please do tell, i'm pretty much a novice at excel/mathematics
Report betting_masta January 2, 2020 9:52 PM GMT
3 winners this week -- strike rate is healthy  (8 winners out of 30 matches is 26.67% strike rate) a couple of close ones as well

week +16.10
running total +36.7
Report betting_masta January 9, 2020 8:48 PM GMT
Sheff United    2-1 West Ham
10.00

Palace    1-1    Arsenal
8.60

Chelsea    2-1    Burnley
10.00

Everton    2-1    Brighton
9.80

Leicester    1-1    Southampton
9.60

Man U    2-1    Norwich
9.80

Wolves    2-1    Newcastle
9.80

Spurs    1-1    Liverpool
9.60

Bournemouth    2-1    Watford
11.50

Aston Villa    1-2    Man City
12.00
Report betting_masta January 11, 2020 3:33 PM GMT
Palace    1-1    Arsenal
8.60
WON  +7.60
Report betting_masta January 13, 2020 5:35 PM GMT
week -1.4
running total +35.3
Report Darlo Bantam January 13, 2020 8:02 PM GMT
Looks like you're doing well. Not sure how true this is but read a stat over the weekend (in comparison to Man City's superior goal difference than Liverpool's) that Man City would be top on xG. That's obviously only the one example but does show some possible fallacy in xG.
Report betting_masta January 17, 2020 10:57 PM GMT
Week 23 predictions

Wolves 1-1 Spurs
7.80

Arsenal 1-1 Sheff Utd
8.00

Brighton 2-1 Villa
9.40

Man City 2-1 Palace
15.00

Norwich 1-2 Bournemouth
14.00

Soton 1-1 Wolves
7.20

West Ham 1-2 Everton
11.00

Newcastle 1-2 Chelsea
9.60

Burnley 1-2 Leicester
9.40

Liverpool 2-1 Man United
9.60
Report betting_masta January 17, 2020 11:00 PM GMT
Amendment
Watford 2-1 Spurs
14.00


Watford have a very high xG at home (1.63), Spurs away xG is (1.52). I put the wrong data in initially so this comes out as a Watford win
Report betting_masta January 17, 2020 11:09 PM GMT
this weekend i will also do a first goalscorer based on Xg in each game. this is based on best xG per 90 minutes played  of all players likely to start. i don't expect this to do as well. FGS market seems a bit more finer margins to me. standout prices in bold

Watford    vs Tottenham
Deeney  7.20


Arsenal vs Sheffield United
McGoldrick 9.60


Brighton    vs    Villa
Maupay 4.10

Man City    vs    Palace
Gabriel Jesus 3.80

Norwich    vs    Bournemouth
Pukki 4.10

Soton    vs    Wolves
Ings 4.40

West Ham    vs    Everton
Calvert-Lewin  5.10

Newcastle    vs    Chelsea
Tammy Abraham 4.10

Burnley    vs    Leicester
Chris Wood   7.20



Liverpool    vs    Man United
Salah 4.90
Report Crisp77 January 18, 2020 1:58 PM GMT
Deeney pen saved at 0-0 unlucky
Report Crisp77 January 18, 2020 3:46 PM GMT
Pukki landed
Report betting_masta January 20, 2020 8:35 PM GMT
going to knock first goalscorer on the head, don't think it will work and don't have the time to do it

xG predictions
week -2
overall +33.3


week 24

Aston Villa 2-1 Watford
12.50

Bournemouth 1-1 Brighton
7.40

Crystal Palace 1-2 Southampton
12.00

Everton 2-1 Newcastle
9.60

Sheff Utd 1-2 Man City
9.40

Chelsea 2-1 Arsenal
9.40

Leicester 2-1 West Ham
9.60

Spurs 2-1 Norwich
9.40

Man United 2-1 Burnley
9.60

Wolves 1-2 Liverpool
9.60
Report ieff7 January 20, 2020 9:31 PM GMT
Hi BM

>>> Watford have a very high xG at home (1.63), Spurs away xG is (1.52).

1.63 for Watford seems OK - but Spurs are now 1.16 [XG Away] (as of 20th Jan)

Spurs could not have dropped that much (from 1.52 as you are saying) - as they only have registered a 0-0 draw against Watford
The 1.52 must been for XG-AGAINST (i.e. goals scored against SPURS)
Report betting_masta January 21, 2020 7:24 PM GMT
^^yep that's what i meant, xGA. wasn't clear in my message
Report betting_masta January 21, 2020 10:37 PM GMT
Aston Villa 2-1 Watford
12.50

+11.50


profit then already  but could have been more

Chelsea 2-1 Arsenal
9.40

Everton 2-1 Newcastle
9.60

both gubbed in injury-time Devil
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- January 21, 2020 10:53 PM GMT
villa 2-1 was 96 mins
everton 2-1 was 94 mins
everton 2-2 was 95 mins
chelsea 2-1 84 mins
chelsea 2-2 was 87 mins

an exciting few minutes there

no doubt a few grand gubbed at very short odds....
Report betting_masta January 24, 2020 8:43 PM GMT
Aston Villa 2-1 Watford

Spurs 2-1 Norwich

Wolves 1-2 Liverpool


3 correct results

week  +21.5
overall +54.8


6 rounds played = profit of 9.13 per round
ROI is very good atm.  91.3%

next round will be 2 games for liverpool including the west ham fixture and then a full round next weekend
Report betting_masta January 24, 2020 8:46 PM GMT
round 7

West Ham 1-2 Liverpool
10.00
Report betting_masta January 31, 2020 12:54 PM GMT
predictions
Saturday
Leicester 1-1 Chelsea
8.20

Bournemouth 2-1 Aston Villa   
10.00

Crystal Palace 1-1 Sheffield United   
6.80

Liverpool 2-1 Southampton   
9.80

Newcastle 1-1 Norwich   
7.40

Watford 2-1 Everton   
12.00

West Ham 2-2 Brighton   
15.50

Man United 1-1    Wolves   
7.00

Sunday
Burnley     1-1 Arsenal   
8.00

Tottenham 1-2 Man City   
9.40

==
Report Crisp77 January 31, 2020 2:36 PM GMT
Going well, but will it work after transfer deadline day?
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- January 31, 2020 3:08 PM GMT
do brighton have an xg of 2 ?

still going well! Happy
Report Crisp77 February 1, 2020 9:10 AM GMT

Jan 31, 2020 -- 2:36PM, Crisp77 wrote:


Going well, but will it work after transfer deadline day?


Yes, not many players changed hands as it goes before the noon cut off

Report betting_masta February 3, 2020 4:27 PM GMT

Jan 31, 2020 -- 3:08PM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:


do brighton have an xg of 2 ?still going well!


it's relative to the opposition's defence, west ham's in this case being quite weak, as you saw in the 3-3 game Happy

Report betting_masta February 3, 2020 4:28 PM GMT

Feb 1, 2020 -- 9:10AM, Crisp77 wrote:


Jan 31, 2020 --  2:36PM, Crisp77 wrote:Going well, but will it work after transfer deadline day?Yes, not many players changed hands as it goes before the noon cut off


the problem is little nuances like a change of manager means a team may set up differently and these predictions look at the entire season, not just the last 10 games. L10 could be more precise and is something to consider. as mentioned, the transfer window didn't see too much movement and so teams basic set ups are roughly the same. i'd say a change of manager would have as much of an impact

Report betting_masta February 3, 2020 4:30 PM GMT
week  +1
overall +53.8


a small loss this weekend but it got a fair few results correct (newcastle, west ham, man united, burnley matches all finished as a draw). the danger is obviously a complete blank week which is possible but hasn't happened yet but we have enough profit in the bank for that not to be completely disasterous
Report betting_masta February 3, 2020 4:30 PM GMT
*week -1
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- February 3, 2020 8:00 PM GMT
had some hard lines again, but i guess thats maybe always the case in
low scoring sports.

keep up the good work!
Report Crisp77 February 3, 2020 10:08 PM GMT
7 out of 10 results right
Report betting_masta February 4, 2020 3:13 PM GMT

Feb 3, 2020 -- 10:08PM, Crisp77 wrote:


7 out of 10 results right


YEP, i haven't been tracking match odds results but i imagine the market is much tighter so the margin for profit is lower so that's why i've gone for the CS market as nobody really bets it

Report betting_masta February 7, 2020 11:51 PM GMT
Gameweek 28

Everton    2-1 Crystal Palace
10.00

Brighton 2-1 Watford
10.50

Sheff United 2-1 Bournemouth
10.00

Man City 2-1 West Ham
17.00
Report Crisp77 February 8, 2020 4:34 PM GMT
Unlucky Everton 88 minute goal
Report Bish Bosher February 9, 2020 8:40 PM GMT
Sheff utd score correct; ExcitedWink
Report Coachbuster February 10, 2020 5:25 PM GMT
projected avg goals per game is 2.50-- that's a bit lower than the average for the season in the premier league which is 2.81 so that tells me the model is slightly undershooting due to the rounding down. i've essentially taken the average for xG for the respective teams home/away, if anyone has any ideas to make the figure more accurate than please do tell, i'm pretty much a novice at excel/mathematics

_____________

if you take Manchester City out of the equation the  games average around 2.65   ...amongst lower half teams playing each other it averages  below 2.45
Report Coachbuster February 10, 2020 5:31 PM GMT
the top 4 or 5 teams normally skew the average somewhat  ...esp last season
Report betting_masta February 10, 2020 8:46 PM GMT
ty for that
Report betting_masta February 13, 2020 10:01 PM GMT
=Friday=
Wolves 1-2 Leicester
12.50

=Saturday=
Southampton 1-1 Burnley
8.40

Norwich 1-2 Liverpool
9.80

=Sunday=
Villa 1-2 Spurs
10.00
Report betting_masta February 13, 2020 10:02 PM GMT
Arsenal 2-1 Newcastle
no price yet

=Monday=
Chelsea 2-1 Man Utd
no price yet
Report betting_masta February 16, 2020 12:03 AM GMT
=Sunday=
Arsenal 2-1 Newcastle
9.60

=Monday=
Chelsea 2-1 Man Utd
9.60
Report betting_masta February 21, 2020 9:48 PM GMT
week +0
overall +53.8


next round coming soon
Report betting_masta February 21, 2020 10:06 PM GMT
=saturday=
Chelsea    2-1    Tottenham
(9.40)

Crystal Palace    1-1    Newcastle   
(7.40)

Burnley    2-1    Bournemouth   
(10.50)

Southampton    2-1 Aston Villa   
(9.40)

Sheff United    2-1    Brighton   
(10.00)

Leicester    1-2    Man City   
(9.60)

=sunday=
Man United    2-1    Watford   
(9.80)

Wolves    2-1 Norwich   
(9.60)

Arsenal    1-1 Everton   
(8.20)

=monday=
Liverpool    2-1 West Ham   
(11.50)
Report The Dragon February 22, 2020 2:25 PM GMT
great start vwd
Report betting_masta February 28, 2020 7:50 PM GMT
loss of 0.6 units last week
new total +53.2


=Friday=
Norwich 1-2 Leicester
9.80
Report betting_masta February 28, 2020 11:43 PM GMT
Norwich    1-2    Leicester   
9.80

Brighton    2-1 Crystal Palace   
10.50

Bournemouth    1-2 Chelsea   
9.40

Everton    1-1 Man United   
7.20

Newcastle    1-1 Burnley   
6.80

Tottenham    1-1 Wolves   
7.00

West Ham    1-2 Southampton   
11.00

Watford    1-2 Liverpool   
9.20
Report betting_masta February 28, 2020 11:53 PM GMT
Brighton look a good bet at 2.20 based on xG as they have the biggest xG differential of all home teams playing this week (0.595) - Brighton's home xG 1.400 is pretty good and Palace's xGa (xG against) is 1.81 giving Brighton an xG of 1.605 for this game

Leicester (0.620) was the biggest away differential this week but we saw them lose at Norwich. Vardy being out could have a bit to play in that

Liverpool are the next best away differential (0.450) this week but they're odds-on away at Watford

The game with the lowest xG is, unsurprisingly, Newcastle vs Burnley

Highest combined xG is, maybe surprisingly, West Ham vs Southampton - these are two of the teams with the highest xG and xGa over the season so we can expect over 2.5 goals there
Report betting_masta February 29, 2020 4:07 PM GMT
games going to form at HT, newcastle burnley locked at 0-0 and west ham soton 2-1 and looking like further goals
Report betting_masta March 1, 2020 10:23 PM GMT
small loss again
bit lucky with that everton united game ending 1-1 as there were big chances near the end

-0.8
new total +52.4


next matches saturday 7 march
Report betting_masta March 9, 2020 4:05 PM GMT
i missed the odds this week on the winner which was 2-1 in the liverpool game - that was the only correct prediction again.
i'm going to say it was a scratch week so the total will stay the same and i will pick it up again next round

total +52.4
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