***** The OFFICIAL GTFI goals thread *****

Oct 26, 2019 -- 5:24PM, mega88 wrote:

Haha giving up before this evening games it's gonna be HUGE !!

where,  WHERE did i say i had given up,  and WHERE WHERE is your appology for the no winning freds when i have linked a 1k per month winning fred that you mocked so i said "feck this" ???

Oct 26, 2019 -- 5:54PM, OnePercenter wrote:

GTFI, I am following this thread with great interest. I am amazed at some of the leagues you research. Great stuff.

Lol it's based on h2h and is very shallow as you'll see in a week or so, previous booms means nothing, there's no depth to this analysis, no disrespect to gtfi but until I see a good run over 6 months it all really means horse S@#t

Oct 26, 2019 -- 6:27PM, mega88 wrote:

And there you go, first loss that now wipes out the last 4 winning bets. (Dont forget ya commission) taking overs at 1.33 just asking for trouble. The key to successful long term profit is correct money management coupled with in play bets taking decent odds while watching the game unfold. Throwing darts at silly odds pre match will always slap you in the face. Carry in gtfi don't mind me

dont forget commission?  cant you read?  Im quoting the LOWEST odds of 365 with no commision lmao,   bf odds are much higher ... tut tut.

Oct 26, 2019 -- 6:32PM, GTFI wrote:

Oct 26, 2019 --  6:27PM, mega88 wrote:And there you go, first loss that now wipes out the last 4 winning bets. (Dont forget ya commission) taking overs at 1.33 just asking for trouble. The key to successful long term profit is correct money management coupled with in play bets taking decent odds while watching the game unfold. Throwing darts at silly odds pre match will always slap you in the face. Carry in gtfi don't mind medont forget commission?  cant you read?  Im quoting the LOWEST odds of 365 with no commision lmao,   bf odds are much higher ... tut tut.

Even worse then if you're taking lower odds, it's all pretty regardless anyway. Carry on I'm going to get some popcorn, sweet and salty

Oct 26, 2019 -- 6:58PM, OnePercenter wrote:

When you have to lie to make a point you really should step away from the keyboard.

Ditto....

Oct 26, 2019 -- 7:17PM, mega88 wrote:

We go back years, we was booming it up in the naughties

WE were booming it up in the naughties,  correct  -  What a apity it's only been ME BOOMING it up for THIS Decade huh... hahahaha...  nuff said dont you think

Oct 27, 2019 -- 10:01PM, wolf3011 wrote:

The profits aren't taking into account commission

That's because if you read from beginning they are LOW odds of 365 so no1 can argue the odds,   no commission on 365,  however,  bf odds are far higher so profits are higher even after commission

Oct 26, 2019 -- 5:54PM, OnePercenter wrote:

GTFI, I am following this thread with great interest. I am amazed at some of the leagues you research. Great stuff.

Are you still amazed ?? Like I said before I've seen this time and time again way before you were on here. Still, I want to see gtfi do well and I hope he comes back, I don't like how he abandones his Fred's!

Oct 28, 2019 -- 8:27AM, mega88 wrote:

I stand by what I say, taking small odds on goals prematch is suicidal...because they are "expected" leads only to the poor house. It's actually obvious when you think about it. You HAVE TO TAKE VALUE!! bet in-play when odds are more juicy. Look at aalesunds.... Ht 0-0 you took odds of 1.2!! Ht odds had increased to 2.01 on here. Ft 3 goals had been scored........ PROVE ME WRONG AND I HOPE YOU DO..... Wish you all the best gtfi

This is just silly, the odds increase at HT if its 0-0 for obvious reasons .. the chances of overs has dramatically increased ffs as half the game has gone, it doesn't mean anyone backing it has any kind of edge. If a team goes behind , the match odds increase.. it doesn't make it " value". The idea anyone can make money long term simply backing goals on two teams that have a high goals scored for column in the league table shouting boom boom boom like a demented basil brush is just childish and quite sad. There is no skill to it, no logic to it, no edge at all and doomed to fail like every other goals thread from any poster that has ever appeared on betfair. All the best with this silliness, I suppose it provides comedy value.

Oct 28, 2019 -- 12:54PM, wolf3011 wrote:

Oct 28, 2019 --  8:27AM, mega88 wrote:I stand by what I say, taking small odds on goals prematch is suicidal...because they are "expected" leads only to the poor house. It's actually obvious when you think about it. You HAVE TO TAKE VALUE!! bet in-play when odds are more juicy. Look at aalesunds.... Ht 0-0 you took odds of 1.2!! Ht odds had increased to 2.01 on here. Ft 3 goals had been scored........ PROVE ME WRONG AND I HOPE YOU DO..... Wish you all the best gtfiThis is just silly, the odds increase at HT if its 0-0 for obvious reasons .. the chances of overs has dramatically increased ffs as half the game has gone, it doesn't mean anyone backing it has any kind of edge. If a team goes behind , the match odds increase.. it doesn't make it " value". The idea anyone can make money long term simply backing goals on two teams that have a high goals scored for column in the league table shouting boom boom boom like a demented basil brush is just childish and quite sad. There is no skill to it, no logic to it, no edge at all and doomed to fail like every other goals thread from any poster that has ever appeared on betfair. All the best with this silliness, I suppose it provides comedy value.

Yes we know how an exchange works thanks, it's pretty mechanical in it's nature. Unfortunately dumbpercenter and gtfi really don't understand the concept of "true value" so I say value for them as it tickles their sensory receptors and makes them feel good. True value is a different beast as we know. When you are dealing with neanderthals then a primitive language is needed. As regards to making money backing goals goes, I disagree. It can be done with a true understanding of money management but only a select few Grace those peaks! Most who post on here are disgruntled losers long term. I agree there is no skill, logic, edge etc as I've always said... Success lies in how you handle your money, something that no football side or gambling site have any control of, but we are dealing here with folks that can't even control their bladders.

Oct 28, 2019 -- 2:01PM, OnePercenter wrote:

My Nice & Easy thread has been in profit from Day 1.I take a fairly simple attitude to value. imho all winners are value and all losing bets poor value. That's always worked for meHTH

Unless you're dealing with large sums of money then you'll be dead before you reach any decent amount, you bet once a month. But if that floats your boat then so be it. You will also hit bad runs making it tenfold worse for you as you've invested so much time into so few bets. There is no right or wrong, do what you want. If it's working then there you go.

Oct 28, 2019 -- 2:18PM, OnePercenter wrote:

I bet when I see an opportunity to make money.I don't need to bet, I've no complulsion.

Probably the best way to be then. That or don't bet at all.

Oct 28, 2019 -- 2:01PM, OnePercenter wrote:

My Nice & Easy thread has been in profit from Day 1.I take a fairly simple attitude to value. imho all winners are value and all losing bets poor value. That's always worked for meHTH

Plenty of losing bets are value when placed and plenty of winning bets that lose are value. The concept of value is whether the odds represent the true outcome of it happening and betting accordingly, not just if it wins or loses. If man city were evens to beat wolves a few weeks back pre kick off , its still value regardless of the result and a 1.4 bet that comes which should have been 1.6 isnt value despite winning which will causes losses long term. The threads which are in profit normally have a tiny amount of bets on- none stand up to the passage of time as there is no value to any bet

Oct 28, 2019 -- 2:48PM, wolf3011 wrote:

Oct 28, 2019 --  2:01PM, OnePercenter wrote:My Nice & Easy thread has been in profit from Day 1.I take a fairly simple attitude to value. imho all winners are value and all losing bets poor value. That's always worked for meHTHPlenty of losing bets are value when placed and plenty of winning bets that lose are value. The concept of value is whether the odds represent the true outcome of it happening and betting accordingly, not just if it wins or loses. If man city were evens to beat wolves a few weeks back pre kick off , its still value regardless of the result and a 1.4 bet that comes which should have been 1.6 isnt value despite winning which will causes losses long term. The threads which are in profit normally have a tiny amount of bets on- none stand up to the passage of time as there is no value to any bet

That only stands up if one value bet is proceeded by another value bet ad infinitum. Otherwise it's a waste of time.

Oct 27, 2019 -- 9:46PM, GTFI wrote:

Pour your pint,

Oct 28, 2019 -- 9:14AM, mega88 wrote:

Ok ok I'll get you back to winning ways..... NEA SALAMIS V APOEL O1.5.  stick that in ya table I'll give it you for free.

Add that as bet 12, you're back to winning ways don't say I don't give you anything!!

Oct 29, 2019 -- 6:56PM, gibmark wrote:

lol ..its the forum curse  , there have been a couple of profitable threads i ve seen here , but i take you point , some are worth laying

Show me a thread with a decent size of bets that are in profit

Oct 30, 2019 -- 1:53PM, gibmark wrote:

£3000 in 5-6 months isnt enough to give the day job up and go pro , and i admit if you were good enough to be pro , you wouldnt need to post it on here , to answer why it wasnt scaled up was because staking was the main angle to strategy , 5% of bank was max stake on any bet , so £1000 bank is £50 max bet , so takes a while to snowball , ..really hard starting with £10 , as for Belper thats how he got to £1500 form a tenner , he lost £500 on a 1.02 shot , so cashed out a £1000 , and started again , his strategy to turn £30 into £33 , then £36 , then £40 etc , check out www.compoundaily.com

I think any sensible person would use only a fraction of their bank as this guy has apparently done , but why not start with £1000- £5000 instead of £10 which would mean any comparable success would generate significant returns enabling him to do it on a full time basis.

The problem with backing 1.02 shots is obviously you can go months getting wins as statistically one will only lose every blue moon even with no edge at all, but if the £500 he lost on a 1.02 shot you mentioned comes in a couple of times in short succession, it wipes you out. I've seen a team go out to 1000 on here before now and get 3 late goals to end up winning which would mean hypothetically you could lay a team at 1000 every day for 3 years and realistically expect to profit everyday even with a scattergun approach betting blind. Schalke had a similar thing 2 years ago with his backing of tiny odds building a bank up and in one day it was wiped out with 3 long shots romping home.

Oct 30, 2019 -- 2:15PM, wolf3011 wrote:

With regards to it being impossible to profit with level stakes, if the bets don't succeed on their own value , they won't succeed with any staking plan long term. Most staking plans are variants of the doomed martingale system relying on these long shots not having success over a short period of time. Stakes can prolong the success of any betting but ultimately it comes down to if the bets themselves are good enough- in any event GTFI shouldn't be embarrassed as at least it contributes to the forum instead of the endless daft pictures on other threads

yes of course , its all about picking winning bets

Nov 1, 2019 -- 4:55PM, G Hall wrote:

He's not back mega the post on the other dred was 26th october.He usually disappears for a while after a losing bet,which is why we hardly ever see him on here.

Thanks G Hall, I'm done with him. He can cry in his tent all alone. This Fred could have been great if he had stuck with it. A few losses means nothing, it's to be expected. Going to concentrate on my own system now. All the best to those peeps who were invested in this Fred...