Theresa May to leave in June 1.12, free money

why is it free monets?

She has announced she will step down on 7th June?

caretaker until new leader elected, can it be done before end of june?

Don't see how it can be done by the end of June unless only one candidate emerges.
If there is a competition with a members' vote I believe it has to be done by post.

Interesting. lay at 1.09. FREE MONEY!!!!!!!!

I think the intention is May sreps down as Tory leader on June 7th but SHE stays as caretaker PM until new leader emerges one way or another.

Which June 7th ?

When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?

Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made by the Conservative Party. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement.

In the event of any ambiguity over an official announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.





con party conference starts at end of  september.... sept 2019 is 60 on hear !

Nothing surprises me any more but on the face of it she has said she stops being Tory leader on 7th June and I think we can assume that is 2019. She won't stop being PM until they get a new leader which could be anywhere between June and Sept. Probably not August as all the members will be on their annual cruise.
So if the exit date specifies Tory leader then June does look a safe bet to me.

1.26 again now....

cameron was deemed to be leader of tories until may was installed despite his resignation,
ive not seen much different in mays speech to camerons

but more detail may emerge...

She SAID she would cease to be Tory leader on 7th.
You can manage without a party leader but not,in theory,without a PM.

you can back it at 2.36 now

if she said exactly that it might be a good bet

would you trust a word she said ?

drifted to 2.32 now, so looks like someone might be right.

My understanding is that she will cease to be Tory leader on the 7th June. She will be Prime Minister until a replacement is found, but not leader of the Tory party. Based on Betfairs rules I’d say it clear Apri-June should be 1.01

She hasn't been very accurate on delivering on deadlines. I wouldn't bet on her word if she told me the first day in June was a Saturday.

She really hasn't a choice that I can see.
She either steps down or gets defenestrated well before the end of June.
If it really is odds against I am going to read the rules very carefully,though I've basically given up betting on politics after the events of the last 4 years.

Going to be one almighty row over this.  Seems clear to me she is resigning on 7th June as leader of the Conservative Party but stays on as PM until new leader determined.

presumably someone has to accept her resignation

Resigning creates the vacancy so that they can have an election

July last matched at 1.61.

2/1 now it's June.

I suspect it must be that she remains leader until a new leader is appointed.

How can you remain leader if you have resigned

i guess she stops being leader of tories after she tenders her resignation to the queen

could she be caretaker pm, whilst tories had a different caretaker leader?

that could cause any amount of problems  to the constitution

There's obviously some confusion about what happens to the leadership after 7th June. They are saying they will elect a new leader,who presumably will also become PM,in July.
May DEFINITELY said she would step down as leader on June 7th but stay on as PM till the new leader was elected. Perhaps she's got that wrong as well     

Chamberlain remained as Tory leader for some while after Churchill became PM. He only resigned because he was diagnosed with a terminal illness.

I think she said she would resign as leader on the 7th...maybe she has to give a months notice

i think she is no longer leader now...

but they allow her the respect of picking a date to leave, which allows
her to handle the trump visit and d day commemorations, then having
resigned, they can elect a new leader whilst she remains as a caretaker
if she so wishes, seemingly she does.

She hasn't resigned yet, she is resigning on the 7th June.

There's a difference between being PM and being Tory leader. I can't find the t&cs for the THREE markets the exchange has for TM's exit date.

yeah i know

but she has no power to enact tory party policy already,

She hasn't been able to enact anything to do with Brexit for months.

just said on news Tory leadership contest will take about 6 weeks so you are looking at backend of July if those figs are to be believed

How do we know when she's leaving ?

She SAID she was resigning as leader (not PM) on 7th June in her speech 3 hours or so ago.

And this is the same woman who said we would be leaving the EU on March 29th ,again and again and again .
Not exactly someone who can be trusted when it comes to departure dates eh ? .....................................

As I said above I don't think she has any choice about this. The vast majority of Tory MPs are itching to get rid and when the EU election results come out on Sunday some of them will be rabid.

According to some posters on the Politics forum that have contacted Betfair May will officially remain as party leader until a new party leader is appointed

I contacted early and got a very mixed message. Adviser said when replacement found but ended up saying it is being referred to management.  My son just contacted and has been told that it will be 7th June if that’s the day she resigns and not when replacement appointed.  Confusion reigns!

The norm is to stand down as leader when a new leader is found and then tender resignation as PM to the Queen within 1-3 days after that. If you look at the history of the Tories, the new leader is been appointed on the same day as the old leader stands down, it all happens at the same party meeting usually.

However, John Major resigned as party leader from 22 June 1995 to 4 July 1995 and remained as PM. He did this to put it up to leadership rivals and to hold a leadership vote. It was highly unusual, a stunt really and he wasn't intending to actually stand down on that day. But it is not normal to give a date like May has and say that you will remain on as PM afterwards. The two normally go hand in hand but the markets are trusting that she will remain on as leader until a new one is found.

This could end in tears

I’m convinced the market has got this very very wrong. I’m max red, happy in the knowledge I have been told crystal clearly that the market settles when May resigns on 7th June by a member of the Betfair CS team.

May 24, 2019 -- 5:55PM, Libertine93 wrote:

I’m convinced the market has got this very very wrong. I’m max red, happy in the knowledge I have been told crystal clearly that the market settles when May resigns on 7th June by a member of the Betfair CS team.

You can't really go wrong in that case.

there cannot be a leadership election until may resigns, but until a leader is elected
to replace her she remains in place....afaik

This looks like a lesson in why bookies shouldn't take bets on politics.
Having thought about it I wouldn't be surprised if donny is right but in that case May's phraseology was very misleading (not the first time).

From the Guardian 5 minutes ago..........The prime minister will remain in place until a new leader has been chosen by her party: a process senior Conservatives hope will be completed by late July.

Sorry 1 hour ago.

She will remain as prime minister not as leader of the conservative party

We( and Bf )could do with a copy of the Conservative Party rulebook. This is a minefield imo.
I certainly thought Libertine was correct originally,but it's possible she has to "resign" in order for a leadership election to take place but technically remains leader till the new one is crowned.

As I understand it from June 7th the party will be leaderless until a new leader is chosen. In the meantime Theresa May will continue just as Prime Minister.

May 24, 2019 -- 10:08PM, sparrow wrote:

As I understand it from June 7th the party will be leaderless until a new leader is chosen. In the meantime Theresa May will continue just as Prime Minister.

Therefore June wins.

As I understand it you are correct sparrow, I have little doubt that May is no longer leader of the Tory party after June 7th. The question is what Betfair seems as what constitutes her exit. From the forums it seems that customer service have given conflicting information on this. I have been told very clearly that it is when she resigns and not when a successor is named. I have screenshots of this and will be pursuing Betfair on getting my money that is due to me as a result of this if they do not pay out for apr-jun. However I know they have told various other people the opposite. Absolute shambles from Betfair. If I don’t get at least my liability back I will be closing my account.

Also the rules of the market state that it’s when May ceases to be leader of the Conservative party not when a successor is named. This is June 7th. I will be pursuing my green on apr-jun as well as my liability. It seems very clear cut to me.

Libertine, your understanding is expect. the market rules are clear. Theresa resigns as party leader on June 7th, June is the exit date. She will stay on as PM until end of July, but she won't be Conservative leader and that is the market.

I agree that if it's simply resignation as leader of her party then June is correct.

She clearly is resigning on June 7th but most of us who are in work or have worked,would still be in the job for a certain period after we give our notice. I'm not clear whether that applies to May,neither are Betfair apparently and tbf I didn't see it mentioned by pundits or polticians yesterday either.

Contact CS again this morning and they said “The market will be settled once Theresa May is officially not the leader of the Conservative Party”.

He said this information has been given by their traders. I queried whole replacement issue and the different messages they gave yesterday and he stated there was some uncertainty at first regarding settlement and that this has now been clarified by traders as above.

Suggest everyone contacts on chat to get some proof.

When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?

Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times. Betfair will not be responsible for suspending the market when an official announcement is made by the Conservative Party. However, Betfair will suspend the market as soon as it becomes aware of an official announcement.

In the event of any ambiguity over an official announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.

Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time in the event that Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.

Best left alone imo

I think it at least clarifies that find a replacement was a red herring.

so if may resigns on 7th june, and boris is appointed on 23rd july

who is next leader of cons, and when is that paid out?

if its boris on 23rd, who was tory leader on 1st july and will they pay out
on that for next tory leader if no annoucement was made?

May 25, 2019 -- 1:28PM, donny osmond wrote:

so if may resigns on 7th june, and boris is appointed on 23rd julywho is next leader of cons, and when is that paid out?if its boris on 23rd, who was tory leader on 1st july and will they pay outon that for next tory leader if no annoucement was made?

Then June wins

i really dont think that would be the payout on hear.

we shall see

Theresa May has bowed to intense pressure from her own party and named 7 June as the day she will step aside as Conservative leader, drawing her turbulent three-year premiership to a close.

Source: The Guardian

Make of that what you will

Reading into that combined with Betfair's rules (above) the 3.4 does look a little tempting

She will step down as conservative leader, but will stay on as PM until late July. The market seems a little confused.

its not like a football manager resigning and clearing his desk same day

but it should be clear in june who is leader and who is not.

Yes, will just have to wait a few weeks to find out.

Looking like there won't be an official leader for that period

There will not be a leader of the party between June 7th and the end of July. This has happened before when John Major resigned as leader to take on his critics in the Tory party.

"John Major challenges his detractors to "put up or shut up" On June 22nd 1995, John Major announced his resignation as Leader of the Conservative Party, though not as Prime Minister".

" On 4 July 1995, he was re-elected, beating the only other candidate, the former Secretary of State for Wales, John Redwood"

major resigned on 2 may 1997 but was deemed to be leader ubtil 19june when hague was elected

so yer pays yer money and yer takes yer pick


i suspect this is closer to the current scenario, but of course may could be replaced on 7 june

..

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Conservative_Party_(UK)_leadership_election

The word was resigned donny.

take a look at tory leader history

he is deemed leader during one tory leadership election, but not during the
leadership election in which he stood for re election

He RESIGNED as leader full stop irrespective as to whether some people deemed him to still be leader.
Have you layed June, donny?  If not stop wriggling.

I repeat.

"John Major challenges his detractors to "put up or shut up" On June 22nd 1995, John Major announced his resignation as Leader of the Conservative Party, though not as Prime Minister".

" On 4 July 1995, he was re-elected, beating the only other candidate, the former Secretary of State for Wales, John Redwood"

if i had layed at the price i first commented at i would not need to wriggle would i?

if you are wriggling then i suspect your cash is gone

hey ho, good luck anyway

I have not had a bet.

yes sparrow that one he is considered not to be leader during the leadership battle...

the other leadership battle when he resigned , without standing , he is deemed to be leader
until hague is elected, which is pretty near what may will do on 7 june, even she , surely,
will not stand again...but she may be replaced by her deputy as stand in leader

1997 is of no consequence as he was no longer Prime Minister.

but he was leader of the tory party

For the final time we are talking about someone remaining as Prime Minister despite no longer leading their party. Some fear that bookmakers will not payout on the resignation date of June 7th arguing that she is carrying on until her successor takes over.

it doesnt matter for this market if she is prime minister or not.

it is if she is leader of tory party as per the rules



when cameron resigned he was still classed as leader of tories too
as he was not restanding for election

Don't know why you are harping on about the word 'resign'. The market is based on the date she officially ceases to be Tory leader, not the date she 'resigns' and in every case since 1922 when a leader has stepped down they have announced their resignation but not ceased to be leader until a new one was found. Resignation and ceasing to be leader are not the same thing. Major was not stepping down and had no intention of ceasing as leader - he was pulling a stunt to put it up to rivals, that's why it's different to every other case since 1922.

Whatever happens there is no guarantee that she will actually cease as leader on 7th June even if she fully intended to when she made her announcment. You will have to wait until 7th June to find that out. The market has it right.

Theresa May has bowed to intense pressure from her own party and named 7 June as the day she will step aside as Conservative leader, drawing her turbulent three-year premiership to a close.







That is what all the reports are saying which you are intent on ignoring for whatever reason.

This is an extract from a Parliament doc about the leadership election

The Prime Minister, Theresa May, announced her intention to stand down as leader of the Conservative Party on Friday 24 May. She will stand down on Friday 7 June, starting the latest leadership contest of the Conservative Party

I am not ignoring it, I am saying that 'stepping aside' 'standing down' or 'resigning' are not the same thing as 'officially ceasing to be leader' and that expecting her to officially cease as leader on 7th June is foolish given the history of the procedure when there has been a change of leader in every single case since 1922.

Stepping aside. standing down or resigning in this context has always meant simply triggering the process of finding a new leader and not officially ceasing to be leader on that date. It is normally the date that the leader unofficially ceases to be leader but the word 'officially' is used in the market rules and is most important here. You seem to be ignoring that and the history of the procedure involved, attaching more weight to media reports which are worthless and not part of the procedure.

Well you obviously know best lurka and perhaps you will inform the Conservative Party of your interpretation of the statement issued.

If May is still leader until a successor is found then why name the date of June 7th at all? It makes no sense. Still can’t see that the rules are even debatable that she ceases to be official leader on 7th June. Genuinely baffling some of the things Betfair CS have told people and the state of the market letter of the law is giving away free money.

A "Free Money" thread in danger....has this happened before?

"On Friday 24 May 2019, Theresa May announced she would resign as leader of the Conservative Party on 7 June" -https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN01366#fullreport

Aka on 7 June, she won't be leader. The headlines will read "Theresa May Resigns as Tory Leader". The market will then be settled.

It's not about who knows best, because nobody knows what will happen on June 7th despite her statement and despite people saying on here what will happen on 7th June. My point is that numerous leaders have resigned previously and remained on as official leader until a new leader is found. That is the normal procedure and normally 'resign' etc only means to trigger the process for finding a new leader and that may be all she will actually do on 7th June. There is no reason for her to leave the party officially leaderless in the interim, it would be highly unusual to do that. She might, but it's foolish to assume that she will and the market is of the opinion that she won't.

The 7th June date makes sense if that is the date the process is to be triggered or if she will officially cease to be leader on that date. You can read it either way. She may have her reasons for waiting until then to trigger it.