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green army
26 Feb 18 21:15
Date Joined: 15 Oct 05
| Topic/replies: 2,610 | Blogger: green army's blog
So I've got £1k on now and hope to double that. We are 6th, away to bottom placed Rochdale. Since December when we were bottom we have comfortably the best form in the league winning the last 6. Rochdale are at Spurs on Wednesday so the Wembley pitch should stretch their calf muscles. I reckon we're an even money shot tops but someone out there doesnt think so , no idea why. We're all fit & looking for a 7th straight , I know football is a funny game but 3.5 looks like outstanding value.
Pause Switch to Standard View Plymouth 3.5 at Rochdale
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Report FOYLESWAR February 26, 2018 8:55 PM GMT
lets hope the winning run continues ,good luck am on at the 3.5 .
Report MichaelKnight February 26, 2018 9:19 PM GMT
Thanks for posting tip. I'm on.
Report the wire February 26, 2018 11:06 PM GMT
Does seem too big, I'm on at 3.40.

Not quite right on Argyle having comfortably the best form in League One. Plymouth since start of December W11 D3 L1 F28 A13.
                                                                          Rotherham  over the same period  W11 D3 L1 F26 A11
and they drew 1-1 at Rotherham on Dec 16th.
Report sofiakenny February 26, 2018 11:26 PM GMT
great stuff the wire!..Laugh
Report Davy February 27, 2018 12:19 AM GMT
Rochdale, although bottom of the table haven't been playing as badly as that would suggest.They did pretty well at the weekend against Wigan.Won't be as easy as it seems.
Plymouth are consistently opposed in the market, i think if you wait until Saturday you will get a bigger price than 3.40.
Report green army February 27, 2018 8:48 AM GMT
youre right the wire, forgot about The Millers theyre are on fire too - we may start higher than 3.4, I don't understand why the markets oppose us every week but its certainly been lucrative for me, to put into a rough perspective its like a WBA v Arsenal game for which Arsenal would be around 1.8, you do the Math
Report inner city sumo February 27, 2018 11:29 AM GMT
Fair play to my friends down the A38 in Cornwall, the GAWS have certainly turned it around this season.

With respect to the insane prices on Argyle I guess it's partly down to your For and Against columns. The sample sizes used to calculate goal expectancy type metrics must be greater than your run of form. While older form is supposed to count less than more recent form, the reality is the dreck you were serving up early in the season must still be in the mix (I read 16 to 20 games Home or Away depending on where the team is playing isn't unusual in these types of calculation). As it stands calculations using a data sample greater than this recent run of form probably have you as a team most likely to deliver 1 or 0 goals in any given game, rather than your more recent form which should have you as a team most likely to deliver 1 or 2 goals in a given game. Just a guess, someone who knows 12X odds compiling might have a better explanation.

In terms of this specific match I can understand your bullishness given that Rochdale are 23rd in the home table and bottom overall. However, just a few minor caveats- they are 4-5 games behind everyone else at home having played only 13 games. They have a positive goal difference at home F13 A11 which means that at home they concede at a similar rate to teams in the Top 6. They don't score many clearly, so the draw is probably a stronger runner than usual. In goal expectancy terms Rochdale are most likely to concede 0 or 1 goal in a home game, which in combination with the overall expectation that Argyle will deliver 1 or 0 goals in an away game results in the lower probability than you'd expect for an Argyle win. Obviously the recent Argyle form trumps this for me with the more recent goal expectation for Argyle being higher I'm with everyone else in that this looks a good price for Cornwall's team.
Report the wire February 27, 2018 1:08 PM GMT
Although Plymouth and Rotherham have very similar excellent records recently the odds in their matches this weekend are very different. Rotherham go to 11th placed Gillingham. Gillingham have lost just 4 of 17 home matches in the league this season,(won 4 and drew the other 9) yet can be backed at 13/5. Priestfield has never been an easy venue for the Millers who I remember even losing there 5-1 in a season they won promotion. 24th placed Rochdale have lost 3 out of 13 at home in the league this season, have a Wednesday night match at Wembley to recover from, but their best price with the books is 13/10.
Report green army February 27, 2018 1:46 PM GMT
sumo we're not in bleddy kernow, we're in Devon !!!! v good comparison wire, why should the millers be hugely shorter than us when we've surely got the easier task ?
Report inner city sumo February 27, 2018 2:07 PM GMT
Playing Devil's Advocate, because Rotherham have been scoring goals all season and Plymouth haven't is the answer in a nutshell if goal expectancy type metrics are being used. It's goals scored, goal difference etc over the entire sampling period where the odds seem to come from.
Report green army February 27, 2018 2:24 PM GMT
you're right sumo we haven't scored a hatful of goals, but we're winning football matches every week and that's what counts at 4.50 on Saturday. Our goal difference is only a small plus because up to December we were getting beaten most weeks , we didn't have a regular keeper and we had 6 red cards in 9 games which were certainly contributory factors.
Report flukes February 27, 2018 2:34 PM GMT
Match could well be off
Report green army February 27, 2018 2:53 PM GMT
yes that would be a blow tho Rochdale reckon it'll be ok
Report The Dragon February 27, 2018 6:43 PM GMT
yup i backed them early on so hoping the rn continuean ven if it oent imsill inpofitafter their amazing run
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