Football
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Football is not really my kind of betting but I just noticed this bet on the Pools site. For forecasting the correct scores on 4 matches on Sunday (Hull v Man U, Newcastle v West Ham, Preston v Swindon, Miiddlebrough v Norwich) the current pool stands at over £500,00 (thanks to rollovers) and I reckon that it could reach £1 million come Sunday kick-off.
Now I know that it's not easy forecasting football scores, but 4 matches with perhaps £1 million up? It's got to be the best value bet this weekend.
So, come on you football aficiandos. What and why do you think the scores might be? If we pool our thoughts on here we might just help each other. If you have any thoughts on team news, stats, tactics, lets share them. Maybe we can help each other to make some money this weekend.
Here is my thinking on the Hull v Man U match. Naturally, Man U will be favourites to win but Hull at home are going to give them their best shot and I think that Hull can at least draw this game. Man Utd have 4th place secured and whilst they would like 3rd its unlikely to happen. They would need Arsenal to lose and they would need to not only win but turn around a 7 goal difference. Hull have to win to beat the drop, no other result will do and then Newcastle have to lose. Who has the greater incentive? There should be goals in this game.
What do others think?
Now I know that it's not easy forecasting football scores, but 4 matches with perhaps £1 million up? It's got to be the best value bet this weekend.
So, come on you football aficiandos. What and why do you think the scores might be? If we pool our thoughts on here we might just help each other. If you have any thoughts on team news, stats, tactics, lets share them. Maybe we can help each other to make some money this weekend.
Here is my thinking on the Hull v Man U match. Naturally, Man U will be favourites to win but Hull at home are going to give them their best shot and I think that Hull can at least draw this game. Man Utd have 4th place secured and whilst they would like 3rd its unlikely to happen. They would need Arsenal to lose and they would need to not only win but turn around a 7 goal difference. Hull have to win to beat the drop, no other result will do and then Newcastle have to lose. Who has the greater incentive? There should be goals in this game.
What do others think?
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Replies: 27
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Can I interest you in a timeshare?
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I already have this in the bag so don't bother
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Have u got the link to the site, Sandown ? cheers
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Defo worth a punt Sandown thanks for heads up,first thoughts are not many goals in any of these matches with so much at stake.
First decide each result home/draw/away take it from there. |
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stickyvicky
https://pools.betfair.com/pools/3111 |
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Ta
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Hard calls to make on all four because form book really does go out the window, players take on a completely different mentality in a one-off game, the only side that really has nothing to play for is Man United, and Steve Bruce being an ex-player may help, Van Gaal may well play the kids, Newcastle wont know whether to stick or twist whereas Hull have to twist. You'd imagine Newcastle would keep it as tight as possible till half time, but Sam Allardyce wants to send them down after getting the sack there and trying to keep his own job, both teams will probably score, I wouldn't back Man United to score. Hull win, Newcastle draw.
Last 10 Play off finals in the Championship 2014 - QPR 1-0 Derby 2013 - Crystal Palace 1-0 Watford 2012 - Blackpool 1-2 West Ham United 2011 - Reading 2-4 Swansea 2010 - Blackpool 3-2 Cardiff 2009 - Burnley 1-0 Sheffield United 2008 - Bristol 0-1 Hull 2007 - Derby 1-0 West Brom 2006 - Leeds 0-3 Watford 2005 - West Ham 1-0 Preston North End This season Middlesborough 4-0 Norwich Norwich 0-1 Middlesborough I'd back the draw Last 10 League 1 play-off Finals 2014 - Leyton Orient 2-2 Rotherham 2013 - Brentford 1-2 Yeovil 2012 - Huddersfield 0-0 Sheffield United 2011 - Huddersfield 0-3 Peterborough 2010 - Millwall 1-0 Swindon 2009 - Millwall 2-3 Scunthorpe 2008 - Doncaster 1-0 Leeds 2007 - Yeovil 0-2 Blackpool 2006 - Swansea 2-2 Barnsley 2005 - Hartlepool 2-2 Sheffield Wednesday This Season Preston 3-0 Swindon Swindon 1-0 Preston Preston win. HTH |
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Good stats mesmerised. Just the kind of contribution needed. I'll digest overnight.
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Apologies if this sounds dumb but...
who owns this pool? Betfair? never seen this advertised anywhere so how does this pool get so big for 4 correct scores. How long has it rolled over? 4 correct scores at average 10/1 = 14,641/1 acca...so 500k+ is pretty generous. Sandown...what makes you think it will reach £1M? where is all the money coming from. Cheers. |
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tashkent t
Betfair bet into pools run by Colossus, just as they do for the Tote, PMU etc. I'm guessing that the pool could hit £1m as that kind of surge happens frequently with Jackpots etc. Colossus have their own punters betting directly into the pool and I believe that the pool is promoted in many bookmaking chains. Even at the present level its still a good value pool, as you point out. Providing not too many hit the final results, of course! |
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ok ta Sandown.
May have a go myself tomorrow. Looks like you can only get to this pool via the new site hence i've never seen it before. Good Luck |
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Think the pool will more likely hit 1.4 milliom come kick off!!!
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Yes 1.4 million makes sense.
"sell" about 760000 tickets for £152K and pay out £139.6K max. Difficult to see the value for the punter in that. |
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JML last roll midweek took 172,000 tickets and paid out over 200k to the correct outcomes and this roll will be 4 times bigger so i dont understand your post in this roll if 2 winners will pay minimum 500k but probably more like 1.4 million for 1 winner which after only 2 rolls make the scoop look like a standard scratch card.If this rolls again will hit 4 million !
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JML
Care to elaborate? Not sure I follow your calculations |
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Sandown- sorry previous cash amounts should have been £1.52m and £1.396m (not £152K and £139.6K).
For every £2 ticket only £1.40 is added to the pool. to reach the mentioned £1.4m 760000 times £1.40 added to the £332600 c/f =£1,396,600 Cost of tickets =760000 times £2 =£1,520,000. |
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JML
The "take" is less important than a) the chance of winning, b) expected number of winners, c) pool size There are 17 to power of 4 possible outcomes = 83,521.So, if it were entirely random, there would be 1 winner every 83,521 lines. So, if I place say 500 lines then I have a win chance of 167/1 if I backed every possible combination. Obviously, its not entirely random.I would expect to reduce the odds against by at least half say 83/1 or less. The lowest unit stake is 20 p so that would cost £100. How much I get back depends on the number of winning lines. With say 835,200 lines you could expect 10 winners on average. A pool of say £1.5 million equals £150,000 per winner assuming "£2 a line. Or £15,000 for £100 stake at 20p per line. That's the equivalent of a 150/1 shot but with the opportunity to cash out for less if the opportunity arises. All roughly speaking of course. If I've cocked up the calculations I'm sure someone will put me right. |
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Forgot to say that the number of winners is also affected by the "improbable" outcomes which will be less well supported. So its a question of not just getting the results right but also whether the results favour a larger payout. As Seathestars suggested, just one or two winners and the payout shoots up 5 fold or even 10 fold. Whenever there is a rollover, value will arise.
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Sure,if you pick 4 correct scores you are going to be well
rewarded,but you can do that on Betfair and pick your own games and choose the stakes you want on each selection. You can dress it any way you like but if a company takes in more than it pays out there is no value in it for the customers. To get the £332K rollover there were well over 166,000 £2 tickets,so even if the pool would have been won the company would have paid out less than it took in. Amazing to think how they manage to take these amounts because every professional would already have calculated this was the case from previous rollovers. |
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JML
If there is a rollover or more than one, that represents a bonus for later players. A pool benefiting from rollovers offers much greater value than one with no rollovers. Just think of the Jackpots. The take is a constant. And sure you can select your own matches but it is a nightmare trying to work out all the possible combinations whereas this is straightforward. No-one has to play but you are wrong if you think that there is no value to be had. |
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Bonus? Value?
If the number of 60p taken from every entry adds up to more than the carry foward amount there is no bonus and no value. And that's not taking it account any chance of the pool being partly won or not won at all. For someone to have value someone obviously has to have equally bad value. It's not the company that takes in £1.52m and pays out a max of £1.39m. So who does supply this value? |
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Where does the value come from?
From punters who have previously played into this pool and not won. The new punters clearly get the value but even previous players get value because their prior losses are dead money to them. So they get a chance to recover. |
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This is my main perm – 36 lines
Hull v Man U 1-1, 1-2, 1-3 Newcastle v West Ham AOH, 3-1, 2-1, 1-1 Preston v Swindon 2-0, 1-0, 0-0 Middles v Norwich 1-2 |
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The pool currently at £775k so £1m looks poss.
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Over 1.1 million now !
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Decided to cash out after 2 matches for a 7.5 win . Can't be unhappy with that. Have I done the right thing? Well as it stands , one more goal in the Preston v Swindon match and I would have blown it if I had not cashed out so I find myself hoping for a third goal now.
Anyway, the value was there. I'm satisfied. Hope others took the hint. |
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