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The Welsh One
11 Mar 15 12:18
Joined:
Date Joined: 18 Aug 03
| Topic/replies: 2,054 | Blogger: The Welsh One's blog
0-1 with 60 mins on the clock and over 3.5 trading at evens.

Hmmmm...
Pause Switch to Standard View New Radiant vs Lao FC
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Report CJ70 March 11, 2015 1:40 PM GMT

Mar 11, 2015 -- 8:06AM, emilly wrote:


Lost 288 on them only. But poor Johnny Musty was cleaned out by me on the home win


Err? You claim to have won 4k, then 5k, then 6k & finally 7.5k and when you lose you only lost £288.

Backing both on, if we were being polite you have a poor staking plan, although I think we all know from previous that you are making up figures.

Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 1:46 PM GMT
Anyone seen how low the draw is in the Beirut game?? still 30 mins left to play
Report nsx March 11, 2015 2:01 PM GMT
Aah yes! The Fix Cup
Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 2:02 PM GMT
look how low it is, says draw is dead cert !
Report nsx March 11, 2015 2:12 PM GMT
was low expectation for goals all the time
Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 2:13 PM GMT
4 mins left and 0-0
Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 2:13 PM GMT
OMG!!! 1-0 !!
Report nsx March 11, 2015 2:13 PM GMT
goaaaaaaal 1-0
Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 2:13 PM GMT
Grin
Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 2:13 PM GMT
was a carzy price so layed it !
Report Johnny_Mustang March 11, 2015 2:15 PM GMT
No you didn't.
Report wisewords March 11, 2015 2:15 PM GMT
lol @ TSO
Report wisewords March 11, 2015 2:15 PM GMT

Mar 11, 2015 -- 9:02AM, The Special One™ wrote:


look how low it is, says draw is dead cert !


LaughLaughLaugh

Report gawdalmighty March 11, 2015 2:16 PM GMT
Laugh
Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 2:16 PM GMT
I said the price was saying it draw was a dead cert as it was at 1.77 with 30 mins left to play, at that price its a lay
Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 2:17 PM GMT
it should have been at leats 2.5
Report wisewords March 11, 2015 2:17 PM GMT
you're a laying mug who just got owned
Report Johnny_Mustang March 11, 2015 2:17 PM GMT
This will be on the Epic Mug thread later.

Like so many of your bets.
Report wisewords March 11, 2015 2:17 PM GMT
laying? lying Silly
Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 2:17 PM GMT
in other the market was saying "draw is a dead cert" because of the price
Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 2:18 PM GMT
not me saying draw was a "dead cert"
Report wisewords March 11, 2015 2:18 PM GMT
[u]welcome to the aftertimers inn TSO[/b]
Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 2:18 PM GMT
any prices out of line have to be layed or backed as appropriate
Report wisewords March 11, 2015 2:19 PM GMT

Mar 11, 2015 -- 9:02AM, The Special One™ wrote:


look how low it is, says draw is dead cert !


Laugh

Report Lifter March 11, 2015 2:19 PM GMT
wow
Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 2:19 PM GMT
yes I said "says draw is a dead cert"

who do you think I meant by "says" ???

THE MARKET
Report wisewords March 11, 2015 2:20 PM GMT
well done on your loss.
Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 2:21 PM GMT
I didn't post "draw is a dead cert"

I posted "says draw is a dead cert"
Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 2:22 PM GMT
read post again
Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 2:22 PM GMT
idiots
Report wisewords March 11, 2015 2:22 PM GMT
I did. well done on losing.
Report CJ70 March 11, 2015 2:22 PM GMT

Mar 11, 2015 -- 9:18AM, The Special One™ wrote:


any prices out of line have to be layed or backed as appropriate


You will lose heavily long term doing that.

Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 2:22 PM GMT
layed it so no loss Grin
Report Lifter March 11, 2015 2:23 PM GMT
LaughLaugh
Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 2:23 PM GMT

Mar 11, 2015 -- 9:22AM, CJ70 wrote:


Mar 11, 2015 --  2:18PM, The Special One wrote:any prices out of line have to be layed or backed as appropriateYou will lose heavily long term doing that.


But the draw was 1.77 with 30 mins still to play

in a normal game it is at least 2.5 with 30 mins left to play

Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 2:23 PM GMT
That cries out to be layed
Report wisewords March 11, 2015 2:23 PM GMT
you lost TSO. give it up0.
Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 2:24 PM GMT
I didn't lose cos I layed it at 1.77
Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 2:24 PM GMT
Grin
Report wisewords March 11, 2015 2:24 PM GMT
you lost.
Report wisewords March 11, 2015 2:24 PM GMT
Grin
Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 2:24 PM GMT
won
Report Lifter March 11, 2015 2:24 PM GMT
We are talking about match fixes and he says:
Report wisewords March 11, 2015 2:24 PM GMT
LOSER.
Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 2:24 PM GMT
A Winner
Report Lifter March 11, 2015 2:24 PM GMT

Mar 11, 2015 -- 8:46AM, The Special One™ wrote:


Anyone seen how low the draw is in the Beirut game?? still 30 mins left to play


this

Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 2:24 PM GMT
winner
Report wisewords March 11, 2015 2:24 PM GMT
loser.
Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 2:24 PM GMT
winner
Report wisewords March 11, 2015 2:24 PM GMT
you lost. owned yourself by backing the draw, like your posts suggest.
Report wisewords March 11, 2015 2:24 PM GMT
loser.
Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 2:25 PM GMT
winner infinity and beyond
Report wisewords March 11, 2015 2:25 PM GMT
cya Cool
Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 2:25 PM GMT
I didn't post back the draw

I posted "look how low the draw is, says draw is a dead cert"

which means the market thinks draw is a dead cert
Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 2:26 PM GMT
WAGwords SEETHING as I got yet another winner
Report wisewords March 11, 2015 2:28 PM GMT
not seething in the slightest. congrats if you did actually win. looks like you lost on the draw though.
Report CJ70 March 11, 2015 2:28 PM GMT

Mar 11, 2015 -- 9:23AM, The Special One™ wrote:


Mar 11, 2015 --  2:22PM, CJ70 wrote:Mar 11, 2015 --  2:18PM, The Special One wrote:any prices out of line have to be layed or backed as appropriateYou will lose heavily long term doing that.But the draw was 1.77 with 30 mins still to playin a normal game it is at least 2.5 with 30 mins left to play


In the same vein that the first game screamed to be layed?

Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 2:31 PM GMT
Which first game was that ??
Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 2:32 PM GMT
I wasn't on the Radiant game, check this thread no posts from me about it, I missed that one
Report emilly March 11, 2015 2:38 PM GMT
Made 7.5k on that match. All the money was taken from Johnny MUGsatang and CJ70 the 2 biggest losers here. But we love Mugs and we need these 2 Mugs.
Report CJ70 March 11, 2015 2:38 PM GMT
Does it matter if you were on or not? The prices were well out of line, so you would have opposed the market.

As I said, you will be losing long term with that tactic.
Report emilly March 11, 2015 2:44 PM GMT
Rumour has it that 2 Mugs recently had a wedding. Johnny Mug married CJ70 Mug. 2 Mugs - 1 life or even no life. Two losers but wonderful to have them round. All with me - we live Mugs , we need Mugs. We love their easy cash. Hahahaha
Report CJ70 March 11, 2015 2:49 PM GMT

Mar 11, 2015 -- 9:38AM, emilly wrote:


Made 7.5k on that match. All the money was taken from Johnny MUGsatang and CJ70 the 2 biggest losers here. But we love Mugs and we need these 2 Mugs.


So you said, nobody believes you.

Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 2:51 PM GMT

Mar 11, 2015 -- 9:38AM, CJ70 wrote:


Does it matter if you were on or not? The prices were well out of line, so you would have opposed the market.As I said, you will be losing long term with that tactic.


I created about a thread few weeks back about a similar game

away side was 2-0 up but the home side were shorter than the away side winning 2-0 !!!

So here the market was saying home side will come back

and guess what, final score was 4-2 or 3-2 cant remember which but home side won

The reason why I opposed the market in laying the draw in Beirut game was because laying at 1.77 isn't going to break the bank is it ? The draw at 1.77 to lay with 30 mins left to play is screaming value

As for the Radiant game, I would have layed the away side if they were trading higher than the losing home side as the market is saying no way will the away side win this

Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 2:53 PM GMT
So if the prices are out of line you back or lay accordingly depending on what the market is saying and "value"
Report wisewords March 11, 2015 2:54 PM GMT
hence, you backed the draw here because the market was pointing heavily towards the draw.
Report CJ70 March 11, 2015 2:54 PM GMT
You are confusing yourself.

In your first explanation you are laying the market because it is out of line and won't break the bank.

In the second explanation you are backing the market because it is out of line.

There are good reasons for doing either, but in defence of a position of opposing the market when it is out of line and my suggestion that you'd be losing long term by doing this, it isn't very logical.
Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 2:55 PM GMT
Jesus Christ at HT the draw in Beirut game was 2.0 !! anyone with any sense would lay that with a whole 2nd half still to play
Report wisewords March 11, 2015 2:56 PM GMT
Laugh
Report CJ70 March 11, 2015 2:57 PM GMT

Mar 11, 2015 -- 9:55AM, The Special One™ wrote:


Jesus Christ at HT the draw in Beirut game was 2.0 !! anyone with any sense would lay that with a whole 2nd half still to play


Yes. New Radiant were 2.0 at HT while losing 1-0. You would have backed that.

Apart from saying you would back the outcome that has subsequently won you aren't making much sense.

Report wisewords March 11, 2015 2:57 PM GMT
one second you are all for opposing the market because it's "value", then the next you are all for following the market by laying Lao here. you're comedy TOS
Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 2:58 PM GMT

Mar 11, 2015 -- 9:54AM, CJ70 wrote:


You are confusing yourself.In your first explanation you are laying the market because it is out of line and won't break the bank.In the second explanation you are backing the market because it is out of line.There are good reasons for doing either, but in defence of a position of opposing the market when it is out of line and my suggestion that you'd be losing long term by doing this, it isn't very logical.


ok lets say away side are 2-0 up and they are trading at 2.1 and the losing home side trading at 1.7

Jesus Christ can you see something wrong there?? home side should be at least 3.0 and winning away side should be around 1.6 to 1.7

In that case you would lay the away side even though they are winning 2-0

Report wisewords March 11, 2015 2:58 PM GMT
what is it TSO? TAKING VALUE or FOLLOWING THE MARKET?
Report wisewords March 11, 2015 2:58 PM GMT

Mar 11, 2015 -- 9:58AM, The Special One™ wrote:


Mar 11, 2015 --  2:54PM, CJ70 wrote:You are confusing yourself.In your first explanation you are laying the market because it is out of line and won't break the bank.In the second explanation you are backing the market because it is out of line.There are good reasons for doing either, but in defence of a position of opposing the market when it is out of line and my suggestion that you'd be losing long term by doing this, it isn't very logical.ok lets say away side are 2-0 up and they are trading at 2.1 and the losing home side trading at 1.7Jesus Christ can you see something wrong there?? home side should be at least 3.0 and winning away side should be around 1.6 to 1.7In that case you would lay the away side even though they are winning 2-0


I agree. which is why you backed the draw.

Report CJ70 March 11, 2015 2:59 PM GMT

Mar 11, 2015 -- 9:58AM, The Special One™ wrote:


Mar 11, 2015 --  2:54PM, CJ70 wrote:You are confusing yourself.In your first explanation you are laying the market because it is out of line and won't break the bank.In the second explanation you are backing the market because it is out of line.There are good reasons for doing either, but in defence of a position of opposing the market when it is out of line and my suggestion that you'd be losing long term by doing this, it isn't very logical.ok lets say away side are 2-0 up and they are trading at 2.1 and the losing home side trading at 1.7Jesus Christ can you see something wrong there?? home side should be at least 3.0 and winning away side should be around 1.6 to 1.7In that case you would lay the away side even though they are winning 2-0


Indeed. But your argument for laying in the other game is the complete opposite.

As I said you've confused yourself trying to justify backing the winning outcome.

Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 2:59 PM GMT

Mar 11, 2015 -- 9:57AM, CJ70 wrote:


Mar 11, 2015 --  2:55PM, The Special One wrote:Jesus Christ at HT the draw in Beirut game was 2.0 !! anyone with any sense would lay that with a whole 2nd half still to playYes. New Radiant were 2.0 at HT while losing 1-0. You would have backed that.Apart from saying you would back the outcome that has subsequently won you aren't making much sense.


no because it wasn't 1-0 it was 0-0 at HT and the draw was 2.0 in the match odds, draw should have been about 2.7, so I waited till the 60th min when it dropped to 1.77 and at that price it had to be layed with 30 mins still to play

Report wisewords March 11, 2015 3:00 PM GMT
and I backed Schalke to win @ 48 laat night with 2k. shut up you tart!
Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 3:02 PM GMT

Mar 11, 2015 -- 9:58AM, wisewords wrote:


what is it TSO? TAKING VALUE or FOLLOWING THE MARKET?


on the back/lay of teams you would follow the market

But in the case of the draw if the price is low enough oppose it

Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 3:04 PM GMT
Lets say for example its 0-0 in a game at HT

The draw in match odds is 1.8, normally it would be around 2.8 to 3's depending on the game

now 1.8 for the draw at HT looks blatantly obviously wrong

so the market is screaming out "this is a dead cert fixed game"

But what I see there is "value" with a whole 45 mins still to play
Report wisewords March 11, 2015 3:05 PM GMT
but you don't see this value in the New Radiant game?
Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 3:07 PM GMT

Mar 11, 2015 -- 10:05AM, wisewords wrote:


but you don't see this value in the New Radiant game?


Read post above I wasn't on the Radiant game

Report wisewords March 11, 2015 3:09 PM GMT
sorry TSO, but you've totally contradicted yourself here.
Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 3:10 PM GMT
No I haven't, read posts above
Report CJ70 March 11, 2015 3:10 PM GMT

Mar 11, 2015 -- 10:07AM, The Special One™ wrote:


Mar 11, 2015 --  3:05PM, wisewords wrote:but you don't see this value in the New Radiant game?Read post above I wasn't on the Radiant game


That's not the point is it. What you are effectively saying is you only have value on option 1 without taking into account other options.

As I said above you will lose heavily long term with this, your confused defence of your position only leads to seeing that is the case.

Report wisewords March 11, 2015 3:11 PM GMT

Mar 11, 2015 -- 10:10AM, The Special One™ wrote:


No I haven't, read posts above


you've contradicted yourself so badly. you've backed the draw in Beirut and are now seething heavily.

Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 3:11 PM GMT

Mar 11, 2015 -- 10:02AM, The Special One™ wrote:


Mar 11, 2015 --  2:58PM, wisewords wrote:what is it TSO? TAKING VALUE or FOLLOWING THE MARKET?on the back/lay of teams you would follow the marketBut in the case of the draw if the price is low enough oppose it


I explained it in the post above, red it again, no contradiction here

Report wisewords March 11, 2015 3:12 PM GMT
ok. have a good day Happy
Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 3:13 PM GMT
Tell you what next time a ridiculously low draw comes up again in match odds I will lay it, there cant accuse me of after-timing now
Report CJ70 March 11, 2015 3:28 PM GMT
Does that really matter?

For your own benefit you need to look at what you've said in this thread and realise where you are going wrong. Otherwise you are going to be losing heavily.
Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 3:40 PM GMT

Mar 11, 2015 -- 10:28AM, CJ70 wrote:


Does that really matter? For your own benefit you need to look at what you've said in this thread and realise where you are going wrong. Otherwise you are going to be losing heavily.


How can laying the draw at such low odds with so much time yet left in the game be a long term losing strategy??

Report CJ70 March 11, 2015 3:57 PM GMT

Mar 11, 2015 -- 10:40AM, The Special One™ wrote:


Mar 11, 2015 --  3:28PM, CJ70 wrote:Does that really matter? For your own benefit you need to look at what you've said in this thread and realise where you are going wrong. Otherwise you are going to be losing heavily.How can laying the draw at such low odds with so much time yet left in the game be a long term losing strategy??


Laying the draw from the start of the game can be a long term losing strategy.

However, we aren't discussing that, and that's not what you stated earlier. You've shoe horned the draw into the argument as you've seen you were contradicting yourself.

At the end of the day, I and others don't care if you and emilly want to make up winning bets and amounts. Just don't expect to do it without being able to back up what you've said.

Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 4:48 PM GMT

Mar 11, 2015 -- 10:57AM, CJ70 wrote:


Mar 11, 2015 --  3:40PM, The Special One wrote:Mar 11, 2015 --  3:28PM, CJ70 wrote:Does that really matter? For your own benefit you need to look at what you've said in this thread and realise where you are going wrong. Otherwise you are going to be losing heavily.How can laying the draw at such low odds with so much time yet left in the game be a long term losing strategy??Laying the draw from the start of the game can be a long term losing strategy.However, we aren't discussing that, and that's not what you stated earlier. You've shoe horned the draw into the argument as you've seen you were contradicting yourself. At the end of the day, I and others don't care if you and emilly want to make up winning bets and amounts. Just don't expect to do it without being able to back up what you've said.


I haven't made up anything, wasn't I the first here to post about the draw being so low in Beirut game? AND THAT WAS AT HT So either I backed it or layed it, the smart bet would be to lay it

Why are you now making things up?

Not once have I mentioned anything about laying the draw form the start

I spotted the draw being too low at HT and so I posted about it to ask here if anyone knows why its so low, not 1 reply initially except from jonny_MUGstang who posted a mug comment nothing to do with the game, then soon as a goal was scored and I said I layed it, OMG!!!! the thread went into MELTDOWN with posters coming from all over the place LaughLaughLaughLaugh

Report Johnny_Mustang March 11, 2015 4:56 PM GMT
That's because you're a liar and not a very good one either.
Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 4:59 PM GMT
I may be many things but liar isn't one of them
Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 5:26 PM GMT
Canada v England (womens cup game)

score at HALF TIME is 0-0

Draw price is 2.24 to lay

This looks about right because its a FINAL  and both teams trading at 3's so no strong fav here hence the drae is fav

But in the Beirut game the draw at HT was 1.77 to lay and that was a cup game with the home side at 3's and the away side at 6's so a clear fav here

with 45 mins stil to play 1.77 has to be layed as it screams "value"

Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 5:26 PM GMT
I wouldn't lay the draw in this womens game though as its a FINAl
Report The Special One™ March 11, 2015 6:12 PM GMT
England 1-0 up !!!!!!!! Grin
Report CJ70 March 11, 2015 7:41 PM GMT

Mar 11, 2015 -- 11:48AM, The Special One™ wrote:


Mar 11, 2015 --  3:57PM, CJ70 wrote:Mar 11, 2015 --  3:40PM, The Special One wrote:Mar 11, 2015 --  3:28PM, CJ70 wrote:Does that really matter? For your own benefit you need to look at what you've said in this thread and realise where you are going wrong. Otherwise you are going to be losing heavily.How can laying the draw at such low odds with so much time yet left in the game be a long term losing strategy??Laying the draw from the start of the game can be a long term losing strategy.However, we aren't discussing that, and that's not what you stated earlier. You've shoe horned the draw into the argument as you've seen you were contradicting yourself. At the end of the day, I and others don't care if you and emilly want to make up winning bets and amounts. Just don't expect to do it without being able to back up what you've said.I haven't made up anything, wasn't I the first here to post about the draw being so low in Beirut game? AND THAT WAS AT HT So either I backed it or layed it, the smart bet would be to lay itWhy are you now making things up?Not once have I mentioned anything about laying the draw form the startI spotted the draw being too low at HT and so I posted about it to ask here if anyone knows why its so low, not 1 reply initially except from jonny_MUGstang who posted a mug comment nothing to do with the game, then soon as a goal was scored and I said I layed it, OMG!!!! the thread went into MELTDOWN with posters coming from all over the place


I'm not making things up. Just pointing out your basic logic errors.

If you think that the events as you lay them out there are correct, good luck to you. You're either lying to yourself or delusional.

Report emilly March 11, 2015 8:29 PM GMT
Johnny MOustache and CJ70 were today cleaned by me in an unprecedented operation. THat is why their hormones has increased and they are trying to talk absolute rubbish here/ Just ignore them. We love MUGS and we need MUGS. Keep these two losers happy so we can continue to plunder them. hahahahahaha
Report CJ70 March 12, 2015 12:45 PM GMT
As I said before, you were late to the party and missed the odds. I think we all assume that you are lying about the numbers you give, if not you are unlikely to win long term because your staking plan is so poor.

http://gyazo.com/4ff69aaf704ea8afb53013101072eb20

Unlike you, Betfair timestamps don't lie.
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