I don't think your thinking's flawed at all, there's no denying any of the points you make.
Personally, I think Arsenal will win well, because they are a much better side than Villa, and they rarely lose games to sides like Villa. OK, Villa have done well so far, but do you expect them to be top-six, top-eight at the end of the season? And they are nowhere near as effective at home. Arsenal were only able to get humiliated in Dortmund on Tuesday because last year, they routinely brushed aside teams like Villa - they certainly didn't get there by beating any good sides. It's what they do - they will pass Villa off the pitch.
Having said all that though, I do have a couple of golden rules - one, I never back teams odds-on away from home in the Premier League, and I never put myself in the position of wanting to Arsenal to win a game of football, so:
Recommendation: NO BET
I don't think your thinking's flawed at all, there's no denying any of the points you make.Personally, I think Arsenal will win well, because they are a much better side than Villa, and they rarely lose games to sides like Villa. OK, Villa have done
Villa may look big, they could well lead, but generally Arsenal don't lose these sorts of games. Their record playing after an away Europe trip is not good but context on those is that almost all of the defeats were against big sides. Arsenal are not playing that well, but Villa don't score enough to make the most of it. Looks like a 1-1 to me with both managers mumbling about positives at FT.
Villa may look big, they could well lead, but generally Arsenal don't lose these sorts of games. Their record playing after an away Europe trip is not good but context on those is that almost all of the defeats were against big sides. Arsenal are n
Depends on your opinion of Villa too but I think we look vunerable at the moment and ripe for an away beating. Ozil will likely be benched in favour of Ox which will do the team good but not many players are on form right now.
Depends on your opinion of Villa too but I think we look vunerable at the moment and ripe for an away beating.Ozil will likely be benched in favour of Ox which will do the team good but not many players are on form right now.