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The Dragon
15 Sep 14 20:46
Joined:
Date Joined: 12 Mar 05
| Topic/replies: 53,665 | Blogger: The Dragon's blog
Hi guys

This thread will start this weekend.

4th year of stats and analysis now . so should be good!!!
Will post Top rated and Value tips with analysis for the selections 8-) . Lets hope it goes well
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Report onthehoy April 18, 2025 2:28 PM BST
Only 2 games for me today

2 bets in the Preston v QPR game: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.62    &  BTTS @  2.14

Asian handicap: Birmingham -1.50 goals @ 1.78


Good luck All
Report onthehoy April 19, 2025 2:03 PM BST
A QPR late goal turned a losing day into a winning one yesterday, LSP now at +3.46pts for the month and -14.67pts for the season

Only 2 bets for today

Palace @ 2.76

Over 2.5 goals Double @ 2.51 :  West Ham v Southampton  / Brentford v Brighton


Good luck All
Report The Dragon April 19, 2025 4:44 PM BST
u were right mm -but not about sunderland not scoring
Report morpteh mackem April 19, 2025 5:00 PM BST

Apr 19, 2025 -- 4:44PM, The Dragon wrote:


u were right mm -but not about sunderland not scoring


was a worldy tbfGrin

Report onthehoy April 20, 2025 1:14 PM BST
2 losing bets yesterday, need at least a couple of winners from today’s 4 selections to stay in profit for the month

I think I’ll take a chance today on Man Utd   @  2.68

also, a couple of Asian handicap bets: Fulham +0.25 goals @ 1.91 & Liverpool -1.75 goals @ 1.87

and over to France for an Over 2.5 goals bet:

Lille v Auxerre  @  1.76

Good Luck All
Report onthehoy April 21, 2025 2:26 PM BST
Only 1 return from yesterday’s bets so I’m back in the red for the month, -0.80pts

5 selections today to, hopefully, get me back in the black again

Hull @  2.00
Luton v Bristol City DRAW @ 3.3

Asian Handicap: Leeds -1.50 goals @ 1.86

Over 2.5 goals: Millwall v Norwich @ 2.20

BTTS: Burton v Birmingham @ 1.94

Good luck All
Report morpteh mackem April 21, 2025 2:31 PM BST
Sunderland team is bit of a botch job, Blackburn dnb got to be the shout
Report Foinavon April 21, 2025 2:37 PM BST
I wonder if Leeds will put on a show today. AOHW looks tempting at 4.7
Report onthehoy April 21, 2025 2:46 PM BST
Fionavan, I was thinking the same about Leeds and was considering going for -2 & -3 goals on the AH,
but after a run of a few losing bets, thought I’d play safe with -1.5 goals
Report Foinavon April 21, 2025 3:07 PM BST
I noticed your AH we are essentially hoping for the same thing. They are I up already.
Report Foinavon April 21, 2025 3:09 PM BST
2-0
Report Foinavon April 21, 2025 3:16 PM BST
I've taken the profit here but might be worth having a second bite if the price decays enough.
Report Foinavon April 21, 2025 3:28 PM BST
Wow, 4-0 after only 26 minutes, I should have held on!.
Report SirNorbertClarke April 21, 2025 4:20 PM BST
Always wise to get your stake money back if it comes with a tidy profit.
Report Foinavon April 21, 2025 4:26 PM BST
Agreed, Nobby, I took the meat but left the gravy. The prices on AOHW decay rapidly during a goalless period. Pass the parcel as you recently mentioned.
Report The Dragon April 26, 2025 7:47 AM BST
Morning all

Gone for 3 homes today, Wolves 1/2, Stockport 4/5 and Boro at 4/7.

GL
Report kingscrewed April 26, 2025 11:50 AM BST
Morning all, today's btts bets all minimum 1.8!and singles as per

Newcastle
Southampton
Wolves
Hull
Barnsley
Crawley
Walsall

Massive game again for my team Derby away at Hull could be any score, starting to get nervous now
Report onthehoy April 26, 2025 12:31 PM BST
I’m back in the black for the month with 4 of my 5 Monday selections giving a return

hoping to start with a profit  with BTTS in QPR v Burnley @ 2.3

I reckon Burnley should be good for a goal or 2 and QPR have scored in 19 of 22 home games this season, so maybe they can find a way past a tight Burnley defence

Kingscrewed, I will be keeping an eye on the Derby game hoping they can take the 3pts (like to see them doing ok as I lived only about 20 mins away from Pride Park for about 20 years), I've also gone for this game to back BTTS

Good Luck All
Report onthehoy April 26, 2025 2:47 PM BST
Monthly LSP down to +1.12pts after my first bet of the day

9 selections from 7 games for my 3pm bets

Home wins:  Brighton @ 1.84   Burton @  2.04

Asian Handicap: Newcastle -2.25 goals @  2.09  Brighton -1 goal @ 2.41

Over 2.5 goals:Hull v Derby @ 2.8 Middlesbrough v Norwich @ 1.64
Cheltenham v Carlisle @ 1.84

BTTS:  Cheltenham v Carlisle  @  1.73  Wrexham v Charlton   @ 2.24

Kingscrewed, I changed my mind on the Derby game and switched to Over 2.5 goals instead of BTTS

Good Luck All
Report The Dragon April 26, 2025 4:46 PM BST
goallllllllllll derby 0-1 6 mins to go
Report onthehoy April 27, 2025 12:34 PM BST
5 winners and a returned stake from my 9 selections yesterday

I am giving the 2 Premier league & FA Cup games a miss today, but have 4 selections from European early afternoon games


Home wins: Heerenveen @ 2.10  Inter Milan  @ 1.83  Fiorentina  @ 1.97

Asian Handicap: Ajax -1 goal @ 1.79


Good Luck All
Report The Dragon April 27, 2025 1:29 PM BST
gl oth -been a great season for your newcastle- hoping we can win the prem league in the sunshine at anfield todayCool
Report The Dragon April 27, 2025 1:30 PM BST
boro let me down yesterdayCry
Report onthehoy April 27, 2025 2:02 PM BST
You having any bets on the game Dragon?

I can't make my mind up, was thinking Liverpool -2 goals on AH or Over 3.5 goals (or maybe both)
Report The Dragon April 27, 2025 2:32 PM BST
no oth i very rarely bet on liverpool games as i dont want to jinx themCrazy

3-1or 3-0 correct score wd be my guess
Report Foinavon April 30, 2025 1:32 PM BST
Just one bet for me today,
Viking V Haugesund AOHW currently around 3.1
In 5 games so far in the Eliteserien Viking Stavanger have scored 16 and conceded 11, their opponents have scored just 1 and conceded 9 in 4 games. I took a better price last night and the correct scores board was then wiped but is back up this morning. I will look for better prices in play and trade as appropriate.
Report Foinavon April 30, 2025 1:42 PM BST
A word to the wise, these markets don't always have a lot of liquidity so you often see wide spreads and can't always trade when you want to. The straight win market won't have that problem.
Report The Dragon April 30, 2025 4:17 PM BST
gl foin

bham to win at blakpool tonight - nothing to play for but brum just too good
Report Foinavon April 30, 2025 5:44 PM BST
Thanks, the Dragon, good luck with Brum too.
Report Foinavon April 30, 2025 6:12 PM BST
So far so good, 2-1 HT and Haugesund down to 10 men. More than doubled my stake but may go back in should the price ease sufficiently.
Report Foinavon April 30, 2025 6:43 PM BST
Viking have taken off hat-trick scorer Tripic at 62 minutes. They have probably settled for 3-1. No matter I'm out.
Report Foinavon April 30, 2025 6:59 PM BST
Two more in added time to finish 5-1
Report The Dragon April 30, 2025 7:17 PM BST
great stuff foin - top betting/punting
Report kingscrewed April 30, 2025 7:41 PM BST
Sportsbook special going 1.83 for over 1.5 in Barcelona, Mansfield and Blackpool games have had a few quid on I know Brum have had a few 1 nils and Inter have great defensive record this season in the champions league but fancy it to land.
Report Foinavon April 30, 2025 7:47 PM BST
Thanks, the Dragon. I'm reticent about putting up my bets because of the forum jinx and because I trade rather than blind squirrel a result. I hope some others profited too.
Report The Dragon April 30, 2025 8:27 PM BST
0-1 brum
Report The Dragon April 30, 2025 9:37 PM BST
0-2 happy that
Report Foinavon April 30, 2025 10:28 PM BST
WD The Dragon and Kingscrewed, happy days.
Report The Dragon April 30, 2025 10:30 PM BST
Cool
Report onthehoy May 2, 2025 3:29 PM BST
Dragon, Hope you were partying well into the night last Sunday after Liverpool’s win

It looks like the midweek posters here had some canny wins, wd all

2 out of 4 last Sunday ensured I finished April in profit, +2.62pts, but on a loss of -15.51pts for the season

I reckon I should have a good chance of reducing my season losses with a bet on Man City to win by 2 or more goals
or at least see a return of stake if only winning by a 1 goal margin, when they face a Wolves side who come into the game on the back of 6 wins from games against 6 of the bottom 7 teams

Asian Handicap Man City with -1 goals @ 1.66

Good Luck All
Report The Dragon May 2, 2025 4:40 PM BST
hey OTH

I sure was magnificant achievemebt so its been a great season for both our teams

i have had a go on Wolves to beat City given their incredible recent form.
Report easyrider May 3, 2025 10:04 AM BST
Championship today. Edge of the seat stuff, top and bottom.
Good luck to fans of any teams involved.
Report The Dragon May 3, 2025 10:40 AM BST
yes looking forward to it ER. no bets today other than wrexham to win at lincoln

hoping stockport can beat wycombe to finish a very honourable third
Report twizzle22 May 3, 2025 11:53 AM BST
Skybet are 10/1 on 1 goal or more in the Championship,Div1 and Div2
decent bet if you can get on (I'm restricted to£1)
Report onthehoy May 3, 2025 12:00 PM BST
At least I avoided a losing start to May with a returned stake from my Man City AH bet

3 home wins in the early games

Villa @ 1.91    Bristol City  @  1.97      Coventry  @  2.14

Good Luck All
Report The Dragon May 3, 2025 12:02 PM BST
thanks twizz shoved a fiver on it - bound to be a nil niller knocking aroundSad
Report The Dragon May 3, 2025 1:19 PM BST
only 2 games at half time in championship with no goals twizz so not a bad start- derby v stoke is a worrying one as a point will do them both
Report impossible123 May 3, 2025 1:24 PM BST
How did Watkins manage to be in the England squad? He was gazumped by Man Utd Rashford. He's only had 1 shot in the 1st 45mins.
Report The Dragon May 3, 2025 1:45 PM BST
just need a goal in the derby v stoke game for every game in champ to havr a goal. if it lands only 2 leagues to goCrazy
Report impossible123 May 3, 2025 2:17 PM BST
Finally Watkins had a sot after missing a sitter earlier.
Report onthehoy May 3, 2025 2:50 PM BST
2 winners from my 3 early games

4 more selections to complete my betting for today

Leicester @ 2.52  Blackpool @ 1.57   Arsenal @  1.91

Over 2.5 goals: Cambridge v Birmingham @ 1.91


Good Luck All
Report The Dragon May 9, 2025 8:48 PM BST
hoping stockport can get something at orient tomorrow
Report The Dragon May 10, 2025 7:44 AM BST
nice little winner last night on sunderland last night as postedon the match thread i put up.

pleasant start to a betting weekend 12/5 winner
Report onthehoy May 10, 2025 1:52 PM BST
WD with Sunderland bet last night Dragon, I wasn’t going to have a bet but ended up going for a Coventry win

A few winners last weekend cut my season loss down to -12.56pts

hoping at least 2 of my 3 selections come in today

Asian Handicap: Everton +0.5 goals @ 2.07    Man City -2 goals @ 1.97

BTTS: Wolverhampton v Brighton  @ 1.75


Good Luck All
Report The Dragon May 10, 2025 3:22 PM BST
thanks oth disappoited by the stockport result so close to a nice winner. if id been at home id have cashed out
Report Des Pond May 10, 2025 3:49 PM BST
unlucky Stockport, some shocking officiating today.
Report The Dragon May 10, 2025 3:52 PM BST
didnt see it des as was out with my son, was stockport robbed?
Report Des Pond May 10, 2025 3:55 PM BST
yeah, Orient goal miles offside but no VAR, so tough luck for Stockport. Orient pen looked a bit soft as well, but just about giveable.
Report The Dragon May 10, 2025 3:56 PM BST
ah ok i backed stockport , hopefully they will finish the job at edgely parkCool
Report kingscrewed May 10, 2025 4:05 PM BST
Gl Dragon, apparently first Orient goal was comfortably offside they couldn't believe it on the radio said goalscorer was almost embarrassed to celebrate
Report The Dragon May 10, 2025 4:33 PM BST
might go if they get to wembley kings...no chance of getting in at edgley
Report onthehoy May 11, 2025 11:29 AM BST
Losing day yesterday with only 1 of 3 giving a return

Hoping to get back on track with a bet on Newcastle @ 2.32

Good Luck All
Report onthehoy May 16, 2025 3:50 PM BST
Surely both home teams can come away with wins in tonight’s Premier League games

so for my first bet of the weekend I’ll try a Double
Villa / Chelsea @ 1.91

Good Luck All
Report The Dragon May 17, 2025 11:39 AM BST
yes vwd OTH - I had the same bet but added Brentford for a treble lets hope they can beat Fulham.
Report The Dragon May 17, 2025 11:40 AM BST
gutted at the stockport outcome and did a fewquid on them qualifying and getting promotionCry
Report TheSpyofJackdawsCastle May 17, 2025 11:49 AM BST
I may be back….to give you footy guys a few winners
Report TheSpyofJackdawsCastle May 17, 2025 11:50 AM BST
Thinking about it anyway
Report The Dragon May 17, 2025 12:00 PM BST
Your very welcome spy and i know you are a top punterCool
Report onthehoy May 17, 2025 12:12 PM BST
A few quid to play with today after last nights winning double, so I’ll go for Celtic to win by at least a 2 goal margin
Asian Handicap: Celtic -1.75 goals @ 1.87

Good Luck All
Report onthehoy May 18, 2025 1:49 PM BST
1 selection and 1 losing bet yesterday

I’ll try 2 home wins at odds against today
West Ham @ 3.05  & Brentford @ 2.08

and an Over 1.5 goals Treble @ 1.88  : West Ham v Forest / Leicester v Ipswich / Brentford v Fulham

Good Luck All
Report The Dragon May 18, 2025 7:42 PM BST
brentford did for meCry
Report TheSpyofJackdawsCastle May 21, 2025 3:09 PM BST
Spurs to be winning at half time @ 4.1 looks like ad decent bet to me
Report The Dragon May 21, 2025 3:32 PM BST
thanks spy i was looking for a bet in this game so will follow u in on that one, looking gorward to the game, shame spurs look to have a number of cricial players injured

COYS
Report The Dragon May 21, 2025 8:47 PM BST
great call from the spy -cheers m8
Report Foinavon May 21, 2025 8:55 PM BST
Little Jack Horner
Sat in the corner,
Eating a Christmas pie;
He put in his thumb,
And pulled out a plum,
And said ‘What a good boy am I.

Nice one, The Spy.
Report The Dragon May 21, 2025 8:56 PM BST
CoolLaugh
Report kingscrewed May 22, 2025 9:40 AM BST
Morning all, just seen sportsbook going 1.61 for Jamie Smith (England wicketkeeper) to take 2 or more catches in the first innings against Zimbabwe. The English bowling attack aren't particularly swing bowlers but think with Trent bridge being a ground that tends to swing and a few of the Zimbabwe batsmen not used to the conditions looks a bit of value
Report Foinavon May 22, 2025 11:00 AM BST
Thanks Kings, I can't see much value in the exchange prices at the moment so waiting to see how it goes.
Report easyrider May 23, 2025 11:15 AM BST
Unusual amount of dosh on U2.5 in the Wolves game. Especially as there is barely a bean on every other game yet.
I would have been inclined to be on Overs myself.
Report The Dragon May 23, 2025 1:23 PM BST
defo looks an overs game for me er with an away win on the cards based on currrent form
Report Foinavon May 23, 2025 1:57 PM BST
I rated this a Desmond using my primitive method, so overs. Every backer has a layer but can't explain the activity.
Report easyrider May 23, 2025 3:22 PM BST
One to watch.
Report Foinavon May 23, 2025 7:29 PM BST
I will be watching Napoli tonight. I think they will want to win in style in front of their fans perhaps 2-0 or 3-0. I will just have small bets on the CS market.
Report TheSpyofJackdawsCastle May 24, 2025 7:08 AM BST
Sheffield Utd v Sunderland

BTTS is trading @ 5/4 on here and as you are all aware this is a big price for this type of bet.

So that’s my bet today. Both teams to score @ 2.2
Report The Dragon May 24, 2025 8:56 AM BST
Thanks SPY GL m8
Report kingscrewed May 24, 2025 12:11 PM BST
Cricket bet went down


356 are boosting the btts in the playoff final to 3.0
Report Foinavon May 24, 2025 12:28 PM BST
I still haven't found a bet for the Test match. The 1.12 disappeared along with the threat of rain.
There will be better things to come along this summer.
Report TheSpyofJackdawsCastle May 24, 2025 12:40 PM BST
Wow…..that’s some sort of price Kings, thanks for the info. I thought the market was wrong but maybe it’s my thinking that is incorrect. Anyway I always stick with my gut feeling and it’s done me well over the years. I may even go in again at that price. I understand the logic of bet365…..that is they feel both sides will try not to lose rather than win…..however football doesn’t work like that…..it is never so black and white.
This is why my strike rate on horses is so high….you must consider all of the variables.

On another note…….just watched Jürgen Klopp Q & As on utube…enjoyed it very much
Report Analyst May 24, 2025 1:27 PM BST
I can't find the Bet365 offer price of 3.0 on the Championship Playoff Final - All I can find is 11/10 (2.10).
Report Analyst May 24, 2025 1:28 PM BST
Forget that - just seen Super boost price of 2/1.
Report kingscrewed May 24, 2025 1:29 PM BST
It's under popula analyst
Report Analyst May 24, 2025 1:30 PM BST
They limited me to £10.
Report The Dragon May 24, 2025 1:31 PM BST
its on the front page analyst
Report TheSpyofJackdawsCastle May 24, 2025 1:48 PM BST
Just managed to find 2/1 offer on my Mrs account had max of £40 on
Report The Dragon May 24, 2025 3:28 PM BST
just need sland to score now
Report The Dragon May 24, 2025 4:44 PM BST
boommmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm vwd spy great call
Report TheSpyofJackdawsCastle May 24, 2025 4:47 PM BST
Oui oui ……thanks kings for the 2/1 heads up ….cheers m8 …..extra £80 in the Spy bank
Report TheSpyofJackdawsCastle May 24, 2025 4:47 PM BST
Oui oui ……thanks kings for the 2/1 heads up ….cheers m8 …..extra £80 in the Spy bank
Report TheSpyofJackdawsCastle May 24, 2025 4:47 PM BST
Oui oui ……thanks kings for the 2/1 heads up ….cheers m8 …..extra £80 in the Spy bank
Report TheSpyofJackdawsCastle May 24, 2025 4:48 PM BST
Cheers Dragon….enjoy the dough
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