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7/5/14
The Championship play offs are always one of the major highlights of the football calendar. There is so much at stake for teams and the two leg semi finals with no away goals always lends itself to dramatic attack minded games and the attacking teams are the best place to look when betting on the play offs. In the last 8 Championship play-off finals the highest scoring team during the regular season has reached the final on all 8 occasion with 5 of these teams going on to win the play off.
These statistics bode well for Derby County who scored 23 more goal than their nearest play off rival. Derby’s key man at present is centre midfielder George Thorne who has made an exceptional impact since arriving on loan from West Brom. Derby have won 7 of the 9 times that Thorne has started and his ability to dominate the ball in the middle of the park has been an upgrade on John Eustace who held this position for the majority of the season. Thorne is averaging the highest pass completion percentage, the highest number of tackles per game percentage and the highest long ball completion percentage in the Derby squad which shows how big an impact he has made. With Thorne dominating the ball alongside Will Hughes the plethora of attacking talent with Chris Martin, Craig Bryson, Patrick Bamford and Simon Dawkins can take advantage and fire Derby to the promise land.
Top scoring team statistics do not filter down to League One and Two and finding the winner in League One looks very trappy with Rotherham, Preston and Leyton Orient all tightly matches. If we had to favour one team it would be Preston who only lost 7 games all season, the least of all the teams in the play offs. They have excellent attacking options with Joe Garner the focal point of the attack alongside three players with big game experience in Kevin Davies, Craig Davies and Paul Gallagher. Preston have performed well in the knockout format this year when getting to the fourth round of the FA Cup where they were knocked out after a replay against Nottingham Forest in a match they should of won. However, the main factor behind backing them is the recent play-off experience of manager Simon Grayson who took Huddersfield into the Championship in 2012.
In League Two, Fleetwood are comfortably the best side in the play offs after finishing 4 points clear of their rivals. They have spent big money for a team at that level and have some real quality amongst their ranks. It is no surprise that they scored 10 goals more than their counterparts in the play off, largely thanks to the quality of Antoni Sarcevic in midfield who contributed 13 goals. However, it is the loan signings of Josh Morris (left midfield) and Iain Hume who have added some real quality. Morris is very comfortable on the ball and often finds himself coming inside from left midfield and finding shooting positions. Iain Hume is comfortably better than League Two and at this level he gets loads of time on the ball and adds a real creative spark. At the time of writing it has not been confirmed whether he is available for the play offs, so until this is confirmed I would recommend small stakes bets on Fleetwood and increase them if he is available.
Advice: 3pts Derby @ 23/10 (3.30) – Paddy Power
1pt Preston @ 5/2 (3.50) - Winner
1pt Fleetwood (4pts if Hume is available) @ 5/2 (3.50) - Coral
All play-off matches are live on Sky Sports, starting 8th May with Brighton v Derby.
www.premierbettingtips.com
The Championship play offs are always one of the major highlights of the football calendar. There is so much at stake for teams and the two leg semi finals with no away goals always lends itself to dramatic attack minded games and the attacking teams are the best place to look when betting on the play offs. In the last 8 Championship play-off finals the highest scoring team during the regular season has reached the final on all 8 occasion with 5 of these teams going on to win the play off.
These statistics bode well for Derby County who scored 23 more goal than their nearest play off rival. Derby’s key man at present is centre midfielder George Thorne who has made an exceptional impact since arriving on loan from West Brom. Derby have won 7 of the 9 times that Thorne has started and his ability to dominate the ball in the middle of the park has been an upgrade on John Eustace who held this position for the majority of the season. Thorne is averaging the highest pass completion percentage, the highest number of tackles per game percentage and the highest long ball completion percentage in the Derby squad which shows how big an impact he has made. With Thorne dominating the ball alongside Will Hughes the plethora of attacking talent with Chris Martin, Craig Bryson, Patrick Bamford and Simon Dawkins can take advantage and fire Derby to the promise land.
Top scoring team statistics do not filter down to League One and Two and finding the winner in League One looks very trappy with Rotherham, Preston and Leyton Orient all tightly matches. If we had to favour one team it would be Preston who only lost 7 games all season, the least of all the teams in the play offs. They have excellent attacking options with Joe Garner the focal point of the attack alongside three players with big game experience in Kevin Davies, Craig Davies and Paul Gallagher. Preston have performed well in the knockout format this year when getting to the fourth round of the FA Cup where they were knocked out after a replay against Nottingham Forest in a match they should of won. However, the main factor behind backing them is the recent play-off experience of manager Simon Grayson who took Huddersfield into the Championship in 2012.
In League Two, Fleetwood are comfortably the best side in the play offs after finishing 4 points clear of their rivals. They have spent big money for a team at that level and have some real quality amongst their ranks. It is no surprise that they scored 10 goals more than their counterparts in the play off, largely thanks to the quality of Antoni Sarcevic in midfield who contributed 13 goals. However, it is the loan signings of Josh Morris (left midfield) and Iain Hume who have added some real quality. Morris is very comfortable on the ball and often finds himself coming inside from left midfield and finding shooting positions. Iain Hume is comfortably better than League Two and at this level he gets loads of time on the ball and adds a real creative spark. At the time of writing it has not been confirmed whether he is available for the play offs, so until this is confirmed I would recommend small stakes bets on Fleetwood and increase them if he is available.
Advice: 3pts Derby @ 23/10 (3.30) – Paddy Power
1pt Preston @ 5/2 (3.50) - Winner
1pt Fleetwood (4pts if Hume is available) @ 5/2 (3.50) - Coral
All play-off matches are live on Sky Sports, starting 8th May with Brighton v Derby.
www.premierbettingtips.com
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