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lsmite.
25 Jan 14 17:22
Joined:
Date Joined: 01 Dec 03
| Topic/replies: 42 | Blogger: lsmite.'s blog
After many years of betting I have found the most rewarding betting strategy for me is to keep a close eye on the matches where there is a clear favourite at home. If that favourite goes a goal down then more than likely there will be a good chance that they will score and either come back and win or get a draw.

A perfect example was today in the Man City vs. Watford game (luckily for me I was busy until half time so I managed to lay Watford when they were 2 goals up at evens).

I never post on here much but am always browsing so I just thought I'd share this information with you all and you can either ignore it or give it a try and see how you get on. The key to this strategy is be patient and stay disciplined. Watching the score lines and not getting dragged into having a bet is important.

Good luck everyone and let me know if any of you have success trying this strategy Grin
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Report tobermory January 25, 2014 5:48 PM GMT
Aftertiming always seems to be profitable !
Report fleetingglimpse January 25, 2014 5:54 PM GMT
interesting point, do you apply this regardless of what country/league?
Report Rich1965 January 25, 2014 5:59 PM GMT
lets see what happens in the Napoli game.
Report themightymac January 25, 2014 6:02 PM GMT
PSG went a goal down with 3 minutes to go but equalised in last minute. Shocked
Report aheadington January 25, 2014 6:05 PM GMT
I've been doing this for a long time as well and it does pay divs usually, I've been stung several times but I would think it does end up profitable - I need to look at the stats. Discipline is key but that's the same with any strategy isn't it!?
Report themightymac January 25, 2014 6:07 PM GMT
sorry, PSG were away Blush
Report themightymac January 25, 2014 6:08 PM GMT
Best strategy imo is keep ones money in the bank and most folk will break even.
Report crete January 25, 2014 6:11 PM GMT
Napoli behind now - and at home ?!
Report fleetingglimpse January 25, 2014 6:13 PM GMT
op gone awol
Report TexassportsagentBuzz January 25, 2014 6:20 PM GMT
Another is when a home team heavy favourite is losing by 1 goal with 5 mins to go back {at least) another
Report TexassportsagentBuzz January 25, 2014 6:20 PM GMT
another goal
Report fleetingglimpse January 25, 2014 6:23 PM GMT
Napoli is perfect test for this, 25m left and chevio 2.12,
Report TexassportsagentBuzz January 25, 2014 6:25 PM GMT
if it stays 0-1 lay that scoreline when it is sub 1.1 you will find Napoli will switch to 1-1-8 formation
Report VCM January 25, 2014 6:35 PM GMT
As Tobermory says aftertiming does seem to be very profitable.  The key seems to be to post winning bets after the event.
Report TexassportsagentBuzz January 25, 2014 6:45 PM GMT

Jan 25, 2014 -- 6:20PM, TexassportsagentBuzz wrote:


Another is when a home team heavy favourite is losing by 1 goal with 5 mins to go back {at least) another


bullshit only went as low as 1.38

Report Rich1965 January 25, 2014 6:46 PM GMT
get in !
Report Burton-Brewers January 25, 2014 7:09 PM GMT
yes I have used that strategy myself a few times Ismite but only in English football
Report Biscuit1979 January 25, 2014 7:17 PM GMT
Worked for Al Nassr in saudi arabia. 1.25 pre game but 1-0 down at half time. Won 2-1.
Report christ101 January 25, 2014 10:05 PM GMT
porto should pull their fingers out an score
Report christ101 January 25, 2014 10:07 PM GMT
Porto 1 - 2 Maritimo Surprisedthings never usually go to plan
Report toffee87 January 25, 2014 10:10 PM GMT
clear favourite at home

what do you mean by clear favourite 1/10, 2/7, 4/6 ???
Report Lemmiwinks January 25, 2014 10:23 PM GMT
Porto haven't replaced Moutinho at all.
Report donny osmond January 25, 2014 10:27 PM GMT
were watford really evens at half time ?

i never saw any prices, id have had city at evens .....
Report Bergkamp93 January 25, 2014 10:31 PM GMT
Yeah Donny ...Think I saw ... 5.6 on City and 2.02 on Watford Surprised
Report donny osmond January 25, 2014 10:32 PM GMT
wow
Report Pandorica January 25, 2014 10:36 PM GMT
I laid Watford at 2.1 so that will be about right
Report Bergkamp93 January 25, 2014 10:45 PM GMT
Nice one Cool
Report themightymac January 25, 2014 11:01 PM GMT
The strategic betting plan didn`t work with Sevilla (tf) Crazy
Report Mike-lfc January 26, 2014 3:33 AM GMT
Was doing that for a few weeks. I have a little record i kept.

£10 @ Maccabi Haifa @ 2.80 - WON
£10 @ Slavia Prague @ 2.70 - WON
£10 @ Hapoel Afula @ 1.83 - WON
£10 @ Aek Larnaca DRAW OR WIN @ 3.25 - LOSS
£10 @ Arsenal u21 @ 1.66 - LOSS
£10 @ Liverpool u21 @ 1.61 - WON                                                         
£10 @ Winterthur @ 1.90 - WON                                                           
£10 @ Albinoleffe @ 1.83 - WON                                                             
£10 @ Waterhouse @ 2.37 - WON
£10 @ MTK Bucarest @ 2.10 - WON
£10 @ Man Utd @ 2.26 - LOSS
£10 @ Al Khor @ 2.75 - LOSS
£10 @ Al Ahli Dubai DRAW OR WIN @ 1.72 - WON
£10 @ Kayserispor @ 1.90 - WON
£10 @ Karabuk @ 1.70 - WON
£10 @ San Juan Jabloteh @ 2.87 - LOSS
£10 @ Roda @     2.36 - LOSS
£10 @ Rapid Vienna - 3.05 - LOSS
£10 @ Videoton @ 2.20 - LOSS
£10 @ Inter or Draw @ 1.61 - WON
£10 @ River Plate @ 1.80 - WON
£10 @ Dep Cali @ 3.20 - LOST
£10 @ Fiorentina @ 2.20 - WON
£10 @ PSV @ 2.10 - LOST
£10 @ Esteghlal @ 2.00 - WON
£10 @ Monterry or Draw @ 1.66 - WON
£10 @ Viitorul Constanta @ 3.10 - LOST
£10 @ Ajax Cape Town @ 2.66 - WON
£10 @ Almeria @ 2.04 - LOST                                       
£10 @ Granada @ 2.30 - LOST
Profit - £43.90
Report Mike-lfc January 26, 2014 3:38 AM GMT
£10 @ Xelaju @ 2.10 -
Report therhino January 26, 2014 6:26 AM GMT
Big fan of this strategy in tennis. I love the early rounds of grand slams, so many matches on simultaneously. The profile of the match I'm searching for is a player of known pedigree (doesn't need to be a Rafa or Djoko, any seed generally) down a set or even 2 sets to a qualifier or one of the very low ranked players. Don't always trade out for green both ways, usually one way on the pedigree player after the match turns and odds come in. Big fan of it, works very well. There will be losses, but over time I have found the strategy is definitely profitable.
Report zorba2 January 26, 2014 7:22 AM GMT
The bookmakers take this into account. Look at rangers last night. 1-0 down and still at 1.33.
Report Tony Broke January 26, 2014 9:32 AM GMT
have to use careful strategy, loads of above mentioned 'clear' fav id have personally left alone if I felt they were unreliable, and loads of favs are unreliable, however, its a decent betting strat, perhaps we should use this thread to pick certain games, but not just any old c rap !
Report lsmite. January 26, 2014 11:09 AM GMT
Right, first off it always amuses me when I read people's comments on this forum shouting 'aftertiming'....... What should I have done instead?? Used an example in a weeks time when I don't know what the outcome is yet? Lol I used the Man City game because it had just happened and was fresh in people's mind. I made this thread to try and help people use a new strategy that some might have not thought abut using so if you havn't got anything useful to post I'd prefer it if you didn't bring your negative thoughts to this thread.

Moving on.... I usually look for any teams that are below 1.6. I often go for the bigger leagues such as Premier League, La Liga, Scottish Prem and Serie A but if you have a good knowledge of other leagues then I'm sure it would work the same.

If is usually best to either watch the match or have some form of radio commentry so that you can tell whether a team has changed their game after going a goal down. A lot of teams would have a noticebale change in tactics and have a lot more chances.
Report dsmith January 26, 2014 12:36 PM GMT
Are you laying the away side or backing the home or both Ismite?
Report Tony Broke January 26, 2014 1:13 PM GMT
id prefer to just back another goal no matter what the price is
Report Tony Broke January 26, 2014 2:14 PM GMT
id suggest Sparta rott game will have another goal currently 0-1 down at home
Report Tony Broke January 26, 2014 2:15 PM GMT
what timing and deffo not after timing
Report Greg_Gory January 26, 2014 2:31 PM GMT
Come on Tony,your better than that,jokes thread is on chit chat Laugh
Report JackQueen January 26, 2014 3:07 PM GMT
If a side start the match at a price of 1.25 and go a goal down after 15 minutes, their odds will increase. This is obvious. The price the home side changes to isn't a wild guess. It is based on historical data of a side starting at 1.25, going a goal down and 75 minutes to play.

The odds are correct. To just back the home side (or lay the away side) thinking you are getting great value for money, is simply wrong.
Report zorba2 January 26, 2014 3:07 PM GMT
well said
Report Platini January 26, 2014 4:47 PM GMT
This used to be a goldmine strategy for Man U games, pre-Moyes Sad
Report tobermory January 26, 2014 5:58 PM GMT
Jack Queen is spot on.

There is no 'strategy' whatever here .

If you want to back the most obvious favourites then just back them at kick off . The price you get if they go 0-1 down is just adjusted by the market to the match situation , always factoring in the quality difference between the teams . Sometimes it will be good value sometimes bad , but you will be no better off than backing them at SP .
Report CJ70 January 26, 2014 9:20 PM GMT
I disagree with the last few posts. Teams are priced to win in 90 mins, the market reaction to a favourite going down is based on the SP and little else.

You'll find that a favourite at below 1.50 who have a history of winning 2-0 are priced the same as a team who have a history from coming behind and winning 3-1. It's incorrect.
Report lsmite. January 29, 2014 7:17 PM GMT
Anyone know what odds I could have had to lay Yeovil against Derby when they were 2-0 up? I was out that night :(
Report VCM January 29, 2014 7:21 PM GMT
I saw Yeovil to lay at around 1.48 at half time
Report lsmite. January 29, 2014 7:24 PM GMT
Thanks for the reply VCM. Missed out on that one then. Nevermind.
Report Bish Bosher January 29, 2014 7:32 PM GMT
anyone who fancies doing this with the away team might want to back Bayern now; was 1.44 Stuttgard scored; Bayern now 2.12
Report lsmite. January 29, 2014 8:13 PM GMT
I've just laid stuttgart at 2.76. I know I said I usually do home teams but exceptions can be made.
Report lsmite. January 29, 2014 8:18 PM GMT
Beware though as Bayern have no striker on the pitch, just Gotze up top. They have had 77% possession so far so hopefully got a goal in them at least.
Report Tony Broke January 29, 2014 8:19 PM GMT
another goal at stut for me wouldn't just lay side winning, goin to try and just abck another goal when strong fav is losing but only when theyre not playing an equally strong team
Report lsmite. January 29, 2014 8:35 PM GMT
Beauuuuuutiful 1-1
Report lsmite. January 29, 2014 8:51 PM GMT
2-1 Bayern. What a goal!!
Report Bish Bosher January 29, 2014 8:52 PM GMT
nice result Grin
Report Bish Bosher January 29, 2014 9:10 PM GMT
Barca 1-0 down at home Shocked1.27 still seems short
Report lsmite. January 29, 2014 9:12 PM GMT
I've laid levante at 11. Can't see Barca losing at home even without a full strength side.
Report skygreenzone January 29, 2014 9:13 PM GMT
Its a cup game and they won first leg 1-5 stick to league games.
Report skygreenzone January 29, 2014 9:16 PM GMT
1-4 sorry.
Report Bish Bosher January 29, 2014 9:38 PM GMT
all green for me Excited
Report lsmite. January 29, 2014 9:43 PM GMT
All green for me also Happy backed them back at 29. On that note, think I'll call it a night. Onto the next one.
Report Bish Bosher January 29, 2014 9:49 PM GMT
patience is a virtue Grin
Report lsmite. January 29, 2014 9:52 PM GMT
I've been doing this for a while now and it's rare that I get let down. Like the title says, if you can stay disciplined and don't get sucked in then results will come in.
Report lsmite. January 30, 2014 9:47 PM GMT
Did anyone lay Watford at 1.52 when they were 2-0 up? Twice in a week lol I wasn't on.
Report Burton-Brewers January 30, 2014 10:10 PM GMT
no but I backed Forest to win @ 4.70
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