Bournemouth v Liverpool

How often do your ratings differ by a considerable amount? Obviously the holy grail is finding odds that are wildly different from what you would call true odds. Do you make a good return on investment? Sorry for all the questions. I'm a trader and deal in odds movement and I have a considerable %age of my bank laying liverpool at 1.37 as that seems ludicrously low. I'm **** one but the floor can't be much lower than that IMO :-|

When I say differ, I mean to the actual odds...

Actually no i don't make a good return .Or at least haven't for a good while

Was very good for several years . It's tricky to get the ratings right of course. I had about a year when i didn't bet so much and when i returned to it was starting from scratch and just didn't go so well .

I persevere with the ratings though ,as it is the only way to do it right IMO

Well for what it's worth, I look at oddsportal for minute by minute odds updates. Use my own spreadsheet to crunch the correct score market into 1 X 2 odds (to see if they differ wildly to predict odds movement). And also react to odds that just look plain wrong or odds that swing wildly very quickly (as they will normally swing back at least a little before settling). That's my trading basis and long term i do ok. If I didn't withdraw so much I'd have a nice nest egg lol.

When I say differ wildly, I mean differ to the ACTUAL 1 X 2 market.

Not so often  really . But when they do these days it seems to me that has it wrong !

What do you mean by "that" has it wrong?

Well when i was last doing it every week the odds i thought best value didn't look too good with hindsight at end of season.

We're singing from different hymn sheets. I look at odds that I am quite sure will change (mostly in the short term) for a green up using the correct score market compared with the 1X2. I mainly deal with the draw though as you can take the emotion away from a team winning and use experience in what the floor and ceiling is in the varying leagues. For instance, two teams that have a coin toss odds wise in french 2nd division average 3.15-3.2 for the draw. In the Dutch 2nd string you're talking 3.8-3.9 average. I also use the O/U 2.5 as support as generally the lower the odds for unders correlates with lower X odds.

Yeah , pre match trading is looking at what the prices will be rather than what they ought to be .

I did have a go at that , and did win a bit , though slow going.

With this game all depends on team news . Wouldn't put much into Rogers comments as he is quite cagey. When i was doing this i'd always close the bet green or red the night before as team news can swing it massively.

I hear you. The thing is if I close it now, it's gonna be red. I think even a "Strong" team is gonna be relatively weak. The odds are all about Suarez IMO. With a Champions League 6 pointer on Tuesday, do you really want to risk/tire your only world class player against Bournemouth?!

I think you're probably right there .

Overnight , the win gone from 1.38 to 1.34 , unders 2.96 to 3.05 which looks to be my bet

Bournemouth will slaughter these mugs ffs....

One thing about laying Liverpool pre-off is that with a few exceptions they nearly always tighten before KO. You can make a decent few quid just riding that train.

Not this time, getting shorter by the minute. Team news?

think cj means back before and then lay prior to kick off

LFC team v afcbournemouth: Jones, Kelly, Toure, Skrtel, Cissokho, Gerrard, Henderson, Coutinho, Moses, Sturridge, Suarez

over4.5 it is then lol

Gerrard in the holding role same as first half v Villa

Jan 25, 2014 -- 11:51AM, fleetingglimpse wrote:

think cj means back before and then lay prior to kick off

Ok got it, misunderstood

3-1 bournemouth or 1-5 liverpool gl

suprised suarez to start, with Everton on tuesday

Only bet here for me is a penalty at 3.65 for £100, bearing in mind the fitness of Liverpool v Bournemouth and suarez and bournemouth tiring over time and becoming clumsy and probably already 2/3-0 down and dont give a ****.  Very hard to guage how many goals will be scored because Brenda might take players off early with the games upcoming and the players might take their foot off the grass.  Good luck all and me

really small bets on booking pts 45 or more 9/2 and very small red card 8/1
coutino man of match 8/1

Jan 25, 2014 -- 12:10PM, fleetingglimpse wrote:

suprised suarez to start, with Everton on tuesday

If he doesn't play today, he'll not have played a competitive match for 10 days. Rest is good, but I think you can have too much of it as a footballer. He'll probably only play for 45 or 60 minutes or so, if Liverpool are in front by then and look like having this wrapped up.

Besides, it's only Everton.

not one to back 1.3 but i can't see anything other than liverpool win by 2 goals

2-1 @ 40
Ritchie anytime @ 7.4

I'm extremely confident Bournemouth will score here. Ritchie will tear Sissoko a new one down Liverpool's left

BTTS @ 1.83

ARE LIVERPOOL IN RED AND BLACK STRIPES

Did u get over the Sunderland disaster the other night BBC2

Jan 25, 2014 -- 12:45PM, Rhino-2k8 wrote:

BTTS @ 1.83

nah not for me at those odds

Jan 25, 2014 -- 12:58PM, kellydamo wrote:

Jan 25, 2014 -- 12:45PM, Rhino-2k8 wrote:BTTS @ 1.83nah not for me at those odds

Happy with that, As low as 1.62 in places.

Bournemouth have been superb so far

Jan 25, 2014 -- 12:25PM, stonecold- wrote:

really small bets on booking pts 45 or more 9/2 and very small red card 8/1coutino man of match 8/1

think a red card is always good in these matches, hopefully a professional foul in th ebox

no tv feed, do i trade out of unders ?

Big holes in the Liverpool midfield here for Bournemouth to run into

Liverpool are always getting knocked out of either domestic cups by an underdog beginning with the letter b
in the last 20 years they've lost to Barnsley,burnley,bolton'blackburn and Bristol city.
come on bournemouth

1-0 liverpool

0-1

0-1

moses

0-1

Out of the Blue

easy!

and let the goals commence

Liverpool getting owned down that left hand side !!! ....Kelly is useless !!

better than johnson though

Both just as Sh!t as each other tbf

henderson you mug

henderson

henderson lol

Chokerson !!

agree need new fullbacks badly,though flannegan would start

Yeah Flanagan has potential imo...Just needs to be given more opportunities

Seamus the Best right back in Scouseland att the moment

at*

oooh suarez nearly got through there

Gerrard has been awful. Should do the decent thing and hang up his boots.

**** calling suarez out as a diver

Jan 25, 2014 -- 1:27PM, Glossy wrote:

Gerrard has been awful. Should do the decent thing and hang up his boots.

He's going to get badly exposed at the World Cup this summer.

boringgg

awful game,

Liverpool awful.

Liverpool happy to sit on there lead

Ahaha Gerrard booked.

Martin Kelly clear shirt pulling.

blatant pen

0-2

Sturridge

GOALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

STURRIDGEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

GOALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

Sturridge for England

Just shows you why people think the refs are biased, clear pen one end then 2-0.

very logical spock

i'll get me coat, then beam out

It's football, Jim, but not as we know it, captain.

BTTS @2.90+ come on  Bournemouth

next goal pls

nice to see some trekkies on board
todays game soooo reminds of when houllier was in charge
tad disappointed after such a good season in the league for us.
if your the far superior team just get ya nuts out innit, keegan style

sitter missed by Suarez.

Sturridge

selfish Sturridge

selfish Coutinho

one more here?

Nope

they should have scored a 3rd by now. they're too selfish though, so i don't think they will.

They will win nothing this year

shocking staff from bournemouth, they are parking the bus to avoid conceding a 3d goal

I agree teo, especially the tea lady....clueless

behave teo. liverpool have had ample chances to score a 3rd here.

negativity at football what a shock

suarez couldn't lob the keeper. sturridge was too selfish to set up one of his team mates for a tap in.

at least City are playing now

Jan 25, 2014 -- 12:16PM, kellydamo wrote:

Only bet here for me is a penalty at 3.65 for £100, bearing in mind the fitness of Liverpool v Bournemouth and suarez and bournemouth tiring over time and becoming clumsy and probably already 2/3-0 down and dont give a ****.