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marychain1
15 Oct 13 11:13
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Date Joined: 05 Apr 05
| Topic/replies: 28,704 | Blogger: marychain1's blog
I'm English and used to go to as many England matches as I could. I was at all the Wembley matches in Euro 96, including the final. I would love to see us get to Brazil, and more than that go there and compete skilfully, and have a real go.

Unfortunately, the nature of our league promotes "entertainment" ahead of ability, and where our youngsters get a look in, they are rewarded for having aspects of their game more physical than aesthetic. As such, we do not have enough players of necessary ability to properly compete at the very top table. We have never beaten a proper team in the knockout stages of any major tournament (at least not since the 70s) and that record is unlikely to end in 2014. We may qualify but we will struggle to get out of any decent looking group and we will go as far as the draw takes us (if we are lucky enough to get a poor African side then a mediocre European side in the knockouts we may even repeat 1990s heroics). We will get knocked out by the first proper team we play like normal, although we may take them as far as penalties if our defence holds up.

Moreover, qualification is not yet assured. The prices are ridiculous. Anyone backing England at 1/4 wants their head examining. If you look at our historic results or our results in this group, anyone that thinks the mathematical chances of an England win are greater than 80% is off their rocker, does not understand football, does not understand maths...or all three.

Wanting something to happen for patriotic reasons and betting on a sporting event should not be in any way linked. I want England to win. I want England to qualify, but I can also recognise when a price is distorted, and act accordingly.

England may win (they probably will) but 1.25 is suicide punting. Lay, lay, lay all day. 15/1 or bigger on Poland is a good price too. Laying an England clean sheet is also probably worth it, and some of the correct score prices are unbelievable. Fill your boots, I'm going to.
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Report therhino October 15, 2013 12:38 PM BST
Good post mary, good luck with your bets.
Report Geesyerdosh October 15, 2013 12:58 PM BST
Totally agree.

Poland 6-1
Report colupaul October 15, 2013 1:59 PM BST
I concur with op... it's a don't let your heart rule your head moment...

A nervous night ahead... England should win... but my money will be against them...

If qualification is the outcome tonight, 25/1 on a World Cup win appeals to me...
Report FrankLloyd October 15, 2013 2:16 PM BST
Fair analysis - always a lot of silly patriot money around. Big initial lay on Ingerland for me, trade out when the nails start to get bitten. Value even if it's a loser.
Report Platini October 15, 2013 3:22 PM BST
lay England clean sheet is the one I like.
Report xmoneyx October 15, 2013 3:39 PM BST
England will win,just because its a poor price you don't back other team
Report Zazu October 15, 2013 4:29 PM BST
Poland are dire and England will win

Its a simple case of the more you put on the more you get back
Report marychain1 October 15, 2013 4:41 PM BST
xmoneyx 15 Oct 13 15:39
England will win,just because its a poor price you don't back other team


That's exactly what you do when a price is poor you mong
Report Johnny_Mustang October 15, 2013 4:49 PM BST
Excellent use of the word mong there Mary - not seen often enough in my opinion.
Report danbil October 15, 2013 5:11 PM BST
colupaul 15 Oct 13 13:59
I concur with op... it's a don't let your heart rule your head moment...

A nervous night ahead... England should win... but my money will be against them...

If qualification is the outcome tonight, 25/1 on a World Cup win appeals to me...



I wouldn't back England @ 100/1.
Report duffy October 15, 2013 5:16 PM BST
I wouldn't back England @ 100/1.

I would.
Report colupaul October 15, 2013 5:25 PM BST
Think 25s is fair... serious lack of expectation...

Anyway, let's get tonight over first...Laugh
Report harry2.1 October 15, 2013 5:59 PM BST
Buy first goal at 33.
Report judorick October 15, 2013 6:17 PM BST
laid a massive chunk of Poland, no way are they gonna beat England tonight, none
Report sj October 15, 2013 6:18 PM BST
seen better 1/6 shots
Report themover October 15, 2013 6:50 PM BST
what price do you make them? 1/2 ?
Report sj October 15, 2013 6:53 PM BST
i just couldn't lay 6s poland,as i dont think we are very good
Report Ibrahima Sonko October 15, 2013 8:31 PM BST
tempted to go in again on poland.
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