Football
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I did this a while ago with relative success but stopped, simply going to post my tips and bets for the football, I like to think I have a good level of knowledge so we'll see! Don't plan on trading out or anything, just straight up bets. I mainly bet on the lower leagues as I think I find value on certain lays and backs however I do bet the Premier League and other European leagues from time to time. All odds are Betfair unless specified.
Starting with tomorrow's football:
Back QPR to beat Huddersfield at 2.32
Generous odds here for QPR who started the season with a well earned away win at Sheffield Wednesday, they come into this one after a comfortable 2-0 away win in the League Cup away at Exeter. Huddersfield began the season with a defeat away at Nottingham Forest before winning against League One Bradford in the League Cup in midweek. QPR's squad is one of the strongest in the league - back them against a pretty week Huddersfield outfit.
Back Both Teams to Score= Yes in Yeovil v Birmingham at 1.83 [Victor]
Two sides tipped to struggle this season meet in Yeovil's first ever home Championship game. Yeovil won 1-0 away at Milwall while Birmingham lost 1-0 at home to Watford in their openers last weekend, Yeovil won 1-0 away at Southend in the League Cup in midweek whilst Birmingham lost on penalties to Plymouth after a 2-2 draw. Yeovil know that if they are to upset the odds and survive they must do well, especially at home to teams like Birmingham, with the fans on their side they really should score at least one. Birmingham on the other hand will be desperate to get a result after the defeat last weekend, this is a pretty good price on something I see happening.
Lay Bradford at 1.88 against Carlisle
Neither Bradford or Carlisle began the season particularly well last weekend as Bradford drew 2-2 with Bristol City away and Carlisle lost 5-1 at home to Leyton Orient, however in the midweek cup games Bradford lost 2-1 away at Huddersfield while Carlisle defeated Blackburn on a dramatic penalty shoot-out. That result will spur Carlisle on and while they aren't the best of League One sides Bradford don't appear to be too much special either - a wise lay is in order at that price!
Back under 2.5 goals in Mansfield v Exeter at 2.1 [Victor]
This is an interesting bet, the bookies don't seem sure what to do with this market and Victor have offered the value with 2.1 on the unders. I saw Mansfield play and lose to my beloved Tranmere in the League Cup in midweek, without trying to sound too harsh they were dreadful, they were limited to almost exclusively long-distance shots against a team who had conceded 3 the previous weekend. They have lost both of their first two games 2-0 and come up against a solid Exeter side here who won 2-1 in their opening game before losing 2-1 to a strong QPR in mid-week. If I was betting the correct score I'd take either 1-0 Exeter (10/1 with Ladbrokes) or 2-0 Exeter (16/1 Victor and others) but to me the unders looks the safest bet at better than evens.
Fun multi-league treble: Peterborough, Portsmouth and Burnley all to win (Treble pays 20.83 with Bet365)
A little treble here just three teams I think will defy the odds this weekend, getting almost 20/1 is very generous and worth a small stake.
Lets just say £10 on the first four and £5 on the treble, thank me later. Total stake £45
Starting with tomorrow's football:
Back QPR to beat Huddersfield at 2.32
Generous odds here for QPR who started the season with a well earned away win at Sheffield Wednesday, they come into this one after a comfortable 2-0 away win in the League Cup away at Exeter. Huddersfield began the season with a defeat away at Nottingham Forest before winning against League One Bradford in the League Cup in midweek. QPR's squad is one of the strongest in the league - back them against a pretty week Huddersfield outfit.
Back Both Teams to Score= Yes in Yeovil v Birmingham at 1.83 [Victor]
Two sides tipped to struggle this season meet in Yeovil's first ever home Championship game. Yeovil won 1-0 away at Milwall while Birmingham lost 1-0 at home to Watford in their openers last weekend, Yeovil won 1-0 away at Southend in the League Cup in midweek whilst Birmingham lost on penalties to Plymouth after a 2-2 draw. Yeovil know that if they are to upset the odds and survive they must do well, especially at home to teams like Birmingham, with the fans on their side they really should score at least one. Birmingham on the other hand will be desperate to get a result after the defeat last weekend, this is a pretty good price on something I see happening.
Lay Bradford at 1.88 against Carlisle
Neither Bradford or Carlisle began the season particularly well last weekend as Bradford drew 2-2 with Bristol City away and Carlisle lost 5-1 at home to Leyton Orient, however in the midweek cup games Bradford lost 2-1 away at Huddersfield while Carlisle defeated Blackburn on a dramatic penalty shoot-out. That result will spur Carlisle on and while they aren't the best of League One sides Bradford don't appear to be too much special either - a wise lay is in order at that price!
Back under 2.5 goals in Mansfield v Exeter at 2.1 [Victor]
This is an interesting bet, the bookies don't seem sure what to do with this market and Victor have offered the value with 2.1 on the unders. I saw Mansfield play and lose to my beloved Tranmere in the League Cup in midweek, without trying to sound too harsh they were dreadful, they were limited to almost exclusively long-distance shots against a team who had conceded 3 the previous weekend. They have lost both of their first two games 2-0 and come up against a solid Exeter side here who won 2-1 in their opening game before losing 2-1 to a strong QPR in mid-week. If I was betting the correct score I'd take either 1-0 Exeter (10/1 with Ladbrokes) or 2-0 Exeter (16/1 Victor and others) but to me the unders looks the safest bet at better than evens.
Fun multi-league treble: Peterborough, Portsmouth and Burnley all to win (Treble pays 20.83 with Bet365)
A little treble here just three teams I think will defy the odds this weekend, getting almost 20/1 is very generous and worth a small stake.
Lets just say £10 on the first four and £5 on the treble, thank me later. Total stake £45
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I am always suspicious of following the "Yeovil know they must do well" "Birmingham will be desperate" and "Carlisle will be spurred on" line of thinking.
All teams are trying hard to win at all times. This is only my opinion, and I'm not having a go. It's probably as good a way as any, but arguments like Huddersfield are weak (compared to QPR) is a better way of pricing up games imo. With that game in mind I have to admit I haven't got a clue whether 2.3 represents value, although I think you might be underrating Huddersfield. They are a sporting town on the up. I've got a few on my shortlist for tomorrow but I haven't pulled the trigger yet. So far I'm looking at Barnsley, Ipswich, Charlton, Leeds and Peterborough. Going to go through team news etc and plump for probably 1 or 2 of those 5. Or maybe none. As a Crewe fan I am sorry to say that MK Dons are pretty much nailed on if they have anything about them at all unless Steve Davis makes some serious changes to the Crewe defence; virtual rookie keeper with 21 y/o & 19 y/o centre halves = 6 goals conceded in 2 games v 2 of last year's League 2 sides. 2 of the aforementioned 3 liabilities are also up on sexual assault charges, with three leaders sitting on bench. If the team sheet for Crewe says Martin/Davis/Ray lump on MK Dons at anything above 1.5, If it says Phillips/Ellis/Dugdale or at least 2 of the 3, then hold fire unless you get 1.8. I'll put my bets up tomorrow anyway. I won't be betting on MK Dons against my own team. |
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What exactly are you basing your opinion on of Huddersfield being weak? Granted QPR do have a better squad than ours, but we restricted Forest to very few chances with one solitary mistake leading to their goal being the difference. We've signed James Vaughan on a permanent deal who knows where the goal is, and also brought in Jonathan Hogg from Watford last week, commanding central midfielder whom the vast majority of Watford fans were sad to see leave. Just from his first two games he already looks like a cracking signing. I wouldn't completely write us off, and I expect us to give QPR a really good game tomorrow.
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Just quickly I'll give my reasoning for the shortlist
Blackpool v Barnsley 7/2 = strengthened well at first glance, stronger than usual but priced up as relegation candidates as per usual, especially after opening day loss. Feel they are being underrated. Wasn't at all impressed by Blackpool either in midweek. Think there's some mither in the camp, obviously got some talent, but are the fans and players all pulling in the same direction as the manager? Charlton v Middlesbrough 13/10 = I am a big fan of Powell, he's had to let players go and I think the squad is all virtually up for sale to trim the wage bill, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them improve on last year's mid-table. They lost at Bournemouth first up, but they're a decent outfit at home and Middlesbrough's last win was recorded on the Bayeux Tapestry. Ipswich v Millwall 5/4 = This game just feels to me like its a team that's gearing itself up for a few seasons of success, at home to a team that knows its had a good run and knows deep down that the next couple of years are going to be a struggle for survival. McCarthy, for all his faults, knows this level inside out, and Ipswich should be the cornerstone of everyone's accas tomorrow, shouldn't they? Leicester v Leeds 17/4 This is based on instinct as much as anything else. I think Leicester are feelig their way a little bit, and they don't really seem to know what their expectations are. Should the fans be booing Pearson for not going up last season, or cheering him for a decent season? Leeds, however, seem euphoric. Bates is gone, they've signed a £1m player for the first time in a decade, and they won first up with a young team. They'll have 1,500 outside the stadium trying to get in at Leicester, and I just think the fans can win it for them. Notts County v Peterborough 7/5 County are definitely a top 8 League One side. They are solid, professional and decent. But at home they have to come forward and that might well play into Posh's hands. Even without Gayle they are probably the team in the division with the biggest attacking threat and I'm not sure we'll see this price about them very often this season. Lads and Will Hill both make Peterborough 11/1 to score 4 or more and I'm tempted by that price. |
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At the moment I think my Saturday treble would be Ipswich, Peterborough and Barnsley (sorry Charlton, and shut up Leeds, you're Sunday).
I reckon that probably pays around 18-20/1 depending on where you place it. |
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nice work marychain.
with you on the Barnsley bet. Blackpool are poor. |
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22.5/1 on PP
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Ipswich, Rotherham and Scunthorpe for me, £5 returns £81 with PP
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As already touted in here I think Blackpool are worth a Lay at anything under evens. I think Northampton are a very good price (2.4) to beat Newport. Their home record was excellent last season and Newport's extra time adventures midweek should count against them. I'm tempted to do Northampton in a double with Brighton who again have a very good home record in 2013 (despite losing their last two on home turf) against Derby, who i think are ok but have the most negative manager in the Championship and having watched their game against Blackburn don't look at all like a goal threat.
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In League 1 I also fancy a Tomlin (Peterborough), Pope (Port Vale) and Donaldson (Brentford) anytime goalscorer treble that is 14/1.
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Newport lost a player on Tuesday as well with a broken leg. I looked at Northampton but in the end I decided I couldn't get a good enough handle on the two teams to know what constituted a good price.
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bit of a wimp bet here..wimbledon,chesterfield,dag&red,hartlepool,mansfield,northampton,plymouth games ov 0.5 accy @1.41 on a bad run..hence the drastic measures...
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Peterborough, Ipswich & Barnsley for me
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Same defensive lineup for Crewe, wade into MK Dons.
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Peterborough & Ipswich won for me, Barnsley lost so happy with 2 out of 3, especially as I got the 11/1 on Peterborough to get 4 or more.
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Stunning call on p'boro mary, especially so early in the campaign.
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