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I've got a decent bet for you for next weekend. Crewe to win the Football League Trophy. Its not much of a price, 8/11 (SJ) to win the trophy or 11/8 to win in 90 minutes. I think the 8/11 is definitely worth taking. Here are the reasons.
1. First of all, Crewe are a division above Southend. Now there isnt a lot between the two divisions, but while Crewe have been playing against Coventry, Sheff Utd, Swindon etc Southend have been playing the likes of Barnet, Fleetwood and Stevenage.
2. Whilst neither team are in amazing form, Crewe's League 1 form is certainly better than Southend's League 2 form. Since the second leg of the semi finals Crewe's form is P9 W4 D2 L3. Southend's is P9 W2 D4 L3. Southend haven't won in their last 5 games.
3. The Sturrock/Brown fiasco. Changing a manager (Southend sacked Sturrock last week and then suggested he come back for this one-off match) this close to a final can't be a positive. OK, they've backtracked on the idea of Sturrock leading the team out, but its still a lot of confused prep the players dont need.
4. Crewe beat Southend over two legs in the play offs last season. To be honest, there wasnt much between the two sides and Crewe have sold their best two players for £7m since then (Nick Powell and Ashley Westwood). Crewe are a better side since then however, as Pogba, Osman and Ellis have all strengthened the sides in ways it needed strengthening. And judging on league position & form, Southend arent as good this year either.
5. Crewe played at Wembley and won there last May. Many of the team that day will line up against Southend. This experience will be invaluable and mean that they dont get starry-eyed. In fact its Crewe's 4th visit to Wembley in the Gradi years (93 League 2 play offs (L), 97 League 1 plays offs (W) and 2013 League 1 play offs(W)). This is Southend's first ever visit to the home of football.
6. The pitch will suit Crewe down to the ground. Its been a fantastic season for Crewe; top half and 58 points already when most Crewe fans would have been happy with just staying up. Plus a Cup Final! But the extra cold winter and spring hasnt helped. Crewe have a lot of fast, young players (Murphy, Moore, Clayton, Colclough etc) whose game is based on touch and movement and the muddy pitches have been a real hindrance. The pitch at Gresty Road is a total disgrace. When the Alex players see a pitch with grass on it at Wembley they will think they've died and gone to heaven. Southend's game is much more physical, but the pitch is a massive plus for Crewe.
7. In their last two fixtures Crewe have played Bury and Preston. In many ways, we couldnt have picked better teams to play as a warm up. Two massive, hard, long ball lumping, dirty teams (Simon Grayson's Preston are the uglisest football team I've seen since Warnock's Sheff Utd, and make Stoke look like Barcelona) who will set up in a very similar way to Southend. Crewe have drawn 2-2 (2-1 up until wrongly awarded injury time penalty) at Gigg Lane and beat Preston 1-0 at Gresty Road on Easter Monday. If Crewe can thrive against these teams in a mudbath, they will have no problems on a big fast grassy pitch like Wembley.
There are some negatives (or positives for Southend):
1. Injuries - captain & best player Luke Murphy has missed our last two games but he will be fit and apparently he plays. Top scorer Mathias Pogba pulled up sharply against Preston with a thigh injury on Monday and he is a big doubt. If he's missing he will be a massive loss for Crewe.
2. Outnumbered in the stands - Southend are expecting to sell 30,000-35,000 tickets to Crewe's 12-14,000. It's Southend's first ever visit to Wembley, whereas Crewe are there every year. So Southend will have more vocal support.
3. Bihel Moshni - has a record of scoring against Crewe. He's been playing centre half, and whilst Crewe are more capable of dealing with the physical threat these days, he is bound to cause problems. It's worth an anytime goalscorer cover on this guy.
Overall, I think Crewe are good things and worth following even at odds on. There's a lot of talent in the team and finally they'll get a nice grass pitch to play some football on, and this should be too much for Southend.
5/4 or 11/8 90 minutes if you can get it is OK, but I think 4/7 to lift the trophy is decent cover in case it isnt settled in 90 minutes.
1. First of all, Crewe are a division above Southend. Now there isnt a lot between the two divisions, but while Crewe have been playing against Coventry, Sheff Utd, Swindon etc Southend have been playing the likes of Barnet, Fleetwood and Stevenage.
2. Whilst neither team are in amazing form, Crewe's League 1 form is certainly better than Southend's League 2 form. Since the second leg of the semi finals Crewe's form is P9 W4 D2 L3. Southend's is P9 W2 D4 L3. Southend haven't won in their last 5 games.
3. The Sturrock/Brown fiasco. Changing a manager (Southend sacked Sturrock last week and then suggested he come back for this one-off match) this close to a final can't be a positive. OK, they've backtracked on the idea of Sturrock leading the team out, but its still a lot of confused prep the players dont need.
4. Crewe beat Southend over two legs in the play offs last season. To be honest, there wasnt much between the two sides and Crewe have sold their best two players for £7m since then (Nick Powell and Ashley Westwood). Crewe are a better side since then however, as Pogba, Osman and Ellis have all strengthened the sides in ways it needed strengthening. And judging on league position & form, Southend arent as good this year either.
5. Crewe played at Wembley and won there last May. Many of the team that day will line up against Southend. This experience will be invaluable and mean that they dont get starry-eyed. In fact its Crewe's 4th visit to Wembley in the Gradi years (93 League 2 play offs (L), 97 League 1 plays offs (W) and 2013 League 1 play offs(W)). This is Southend's first ever visit to the home of football.
6. The pitch will suit Crewe down to the ground. Its been a fantastic season for Crewe; top half and 58 points already when most Crewe fans would have been happy with just staying up. Plus a Cup Final! But the extra cold winter and spring hasnt helped. Crewe have a lot of fast, young players (Murphy, Moore, Clayton, Colclough etc) whose game is based on touch and movement and the muddy pitches have been a real hindrance. The pitch at Gresty Road is a total disgrace. When the Alex players see a pitch with grass on it at Wembley they will think they've died and gone to heaven. Southend's game is much more physical, but the pitch is a massive plus for Crewe.
7. In their last two fixtures Crewe have played Bury and Preston. In many ways, we couldnt have picked better teams to play as a warm up. Two massive, hard, long ball lumping, dirty teams (Simon Grayson's Preston are the uglisest football team I've seen since Warnock's Sheff Utd, and make Stoke look like Barcelona) who will set up in a very similar way to Southend. Crewe have drawn 2-2 (2-1 up until wrongly awarded injury time penalty) at Gigg Lane and beat Preston 1-0 at Gresty Road on Easter Monday. If Crewe can thrive against these teams in a mudbath, they will have no problems on a big fast grassy pitch like Wembley.
There are some negatives (or positives for Southend):
1. Injuries - captain & best player Luke Murphy has missed our last two games but he will be fit and apparently he plays. Top scorer Mathias Pogba pulled up sharply against Preston with a thigh injury on Monday and he is a big doubt. If he's missing he will be a massive loss for Crewe.
2. Outnumbered in the stands - Southend are expecting to sell 30,000-35,000 tickets to Crewe's 12-14,000. It's Southend's first ever visit to Wembley, whereas Crewe are there every year. So Southend will have more vocal support.
3. Bihel Moshni - has a record of scoring against Crewe. He's been playing centre half, and whilst Crewe are more capable of dealing with the physical threat these days, he is bound to cause problems. It's worth an anytime goalscorer cover on this guy.
Overall, I think Crewe are good things and worth following even at odds on. There's a lot of talent in the team and finally they'll get a nice grass pitch to play some football on, and this should be too much for Southend.
5/4 or 11/8 90 minutes if you can get it is OK, but I think 4/7 to lift the trophy is decent cover in case it isnt settled in 90 minutes.
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Anyone spot the deliberate mistake?
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8/11 4/7
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1st line and last line
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Yeah, PP's 4/7 was the biggest price when I wrote this last night and since then SJ have gone 8/11. I forgot to change the last line. I can't see anyone going bigger than 8/11 but not everyone has priced it up yet so it may be worth hanging fire. But that wasnt the deliberate mistake I meant.
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Great write up as always, mary.
Point 6. is key for me (add Bradden Inman). Did you notice that only two of our starting eleven yesterday started at Wembley last May? (though Phillips and Murphy will definitely start Sunday). I'll be very surprised if Pogba is fit but think we can cover for him though I hope we don't choose to do it by starting Nathan Elllington, would prefer we started with Byron who was great last May and let Colclough partner Max. Don't usually bet on Crewe games but Bradden Inman FGS at 10/1 ew (98 places!) looks appealing with 3.65 especially when they have Michael West at the same price! |
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Stevenage are in league 1 is that the mistake your referring to?
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@Reaseheath. Yeah I phoned Radio Joke on the way home and said I thought Byron had to start. If Pogba isnt fit I would start Byron as a central striker, if somewhat deep-lying. I think its his best position these days. Picking up the ball between the defence and midfield and running at their defence. Agree about Inman FGS. That is a decent price. He's a goal machine. Bet £3.65 have been massively overpricing Colclough in recent games as well, they had him 20/1 against Crawley when he was starting up front, and 16/1 against MK Dons and he had a couple of chances at 0-0 in each game and made the keepers make good saves.
@Tez, yes that's the one - I got my Dagenham and my Stevenage mixed up |
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4/5 now
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They will be 8/1 by the weekend at this rate
 I might have a little wager on this |
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Ladbrokes taking a bit of a chance offering 16/1 FGS on skipper Luke Murphy. Scored 7 from midfield and will take Crewe's penalties.
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crewe alex fans are wrongs uns well known fact
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Peter Beagrie previews Johnstone's Paint Trophy Final at Wembley
I think Crewe head into the Johnstone's Paint Trophy final as firm favourites. Not only are they in a higher division than Southend and playing well - Alexandra sit 11th in League One and have lost just once in their previous six games - but they hold the wood over the Shrimpers having beaten them in the League Two play-offs last season en route to promotion. Crewe are going to be in familiar surroundings at Wembley, too, after defeating Cheltenham there in May to cement a place in League One, while they also have more match-winners than their Essex counterparts, so I would expect them to emerge with the victory. Byron Moore and AJ Leitch-Smith ran riot at Wembley last term, while Alex boss Steve Davis has added Brad Inman to his ranks this year and the Newcastle loanee has scored in his last two games, against Bury and Preston, and netted twice against Coventry in the semi-finals of the JPT. Crewe are now more adept at defending and work as hard out of possession as they do in it, all whilst retaining their cultured passing game. The Railwaymen do, though, have doubts over striker Mathias Pogba, the Guinea international who has scored 16 goals in all competitions this season since joining from Conference outfit Wrexham in July. The 22-year-old limped out of the victory over Preston and would be a big miss because he has bundles of quality, but the biggest concern of all is Luke Murphy, with the influential midfielder absent from the last three matches due to a groin strain. Murphy, who has spent his entire career at Crewe, not only gets goals from the middle of the park but is Alexandra's most consistent performer, dictates games and is at the hub of everything good that his team does. Davis, however, deserves immense credit for the job he has done since taking over the managerial reins from Mr Crewe, Dario Gradi, as he didn't have big shoes to fill, he had clown-sized ones to step into. Yet the 47-year-old he was not fazed by it and has gone about his business in an understated way, a bit like Sean O'Driscoll, and backed his knowledge and know-how - and that has seemingly alerted Championship chairmen, with Davis linked with moves to Blackpool, Burnley and Blackpool this year. The one-time defender knew the fabric of Crewe, having been there as a player, and the North West area thanks to stints in charge of non-league Northwich and Nantwich, so he wasn't entering the role with radical ideas. He has, though, made little modifications and Alex are now a lot harder to beat; their philosophy used to be: 'We attack, you attack' but they are now more adept at defending, have two solid banks of four and work as hard out of possession as they do in it, all whilst retaining their cultured passing game. For the Railwaymen to be sitting safe in League One with a cigar in one hand and a glass of champagne in the other at the start of April is testament to the job Steve has done and is extra impressive following the summer departures of Nick Powell (Man United) and Ashley Westwood (Aston Villa). Crewe, 17 points clear of fourth-bottom Scunthorpe in the third tier, can go out and really enjoy this Wembley showdown - but for Southend, the encounter could really shape the rest of their season. The Shrimpers' play-off hopes have been dented by a run of just one League Two win in eight and they now lie six points off the top seven, and if they were on the losing side and put in a poor performance on Sunday, confidence would take another hit. However, the Roots Hall team have probably the easiest run in of the play-off chasers so a victory over Crewe could give them vital momentum - and they certainly have players who can cause their higher-division opponents problems. Phil Brown, who recently succeeded Paul Sturrock as Southend boss, says no-one has really secured a place in his team following the disappointing draw against Fleetwood, but if the Shrimpers are going to win I think Barry Corr must play well. The former Exeter man is a goal-scorer, whether he starts or comes off the bench, is willing to run the channels and could have the movement to upset Crewe, while on-loan Watford man Britt Assombalonga and Gavin Tomlin provide pace and physicality, too. Southend felt such an attachment to Sturrock that, despite sacking him, they offered him the opportunity to lead the team out in the final - but I think the right decision has now been made, with Brown walking the team onto the pitch and the old manager sitting amongst the fans. Brown, who won the Johnstone's Paint Trophy while playing for Bolton in 1989 and took Hull up to the Premier League at Wembley in 2008, could become an instant hero if in just his third game in charge he guides the Shrimpers to silverware. But, at the end of a free-flowing game that both clubs have done incredibly well to reach, I expect Crewe to prevail - and for Davis' managerial stock to shoot up another level. http://www.skysports.com/opinion/story/0,25212,15231_8617149,00.html? |
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Marychain in shock 'Crewe will win' thread haha
Good luck tomorrow nothing between two sides wouldn't trust either, nice for players to play at wembley but having it 2/3 full shows its two Mickey Mouse fanbases |
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Good write up Marychain
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Lets hope the goals flow
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Cheers tiny dave. Woken up in Wembley travelodge with the worst hangover.
Get stuck in boys |
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Have got £200 on Crewe to lift the trophy and £10 FGS Luke Murphy 16/1 Lads and £15 Inman FGS 9/1 Bet £3.65
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Have a good day mate. I was in The Torch a couple of weeks ago. £4.50 for a Carling.
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Just had breakfast in The Ace cafe, heading to The Torch now.
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Followed Crewe punting-wise for most of this season, like to take note of fans observations so added Luke Murphy as 1st goalscorer to my planned bets of Crewe 90 mins & 3-1 c/s..cheers Mary, have a great day..
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london abit expensine for us northern monkeys , a MARINER,
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I can't see past Crewe winning this in 90 mins
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Cant stand Phil Brown, wears more make up than the average woman.
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nice goal
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Top tipping!
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top tip at the mo marychain
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Great call that and good goal
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Wow..
...owe you one Mary!!...cheers pal, bet you're bouncing! |
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clueless commentator
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great start marychain
just needs crewe to lift trophy £270 profit i believe and added bonus seeing his side win at wembley fingers crossed |
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Need another goal or two, a little ropey at the back, great goal from Murphy gutted I didn't put even a fiver on him for FGS
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commentator embarrassing himself even more
2-0  |
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enjoy your day marychain made a good profit thanks if it stays like this
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need to sub the commentator,player ran into him
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Nice one Marychain you made my day with this selection, enjoy the celebrations
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Happy days. Cheers boys!
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Anyone know if there is a Laddies by Euston?
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there is a gents near Paddington, but I wouldn't go there if I was you.
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